Bad Boys: Ride or Die Box Office Prediction

Nearly four and a half years ago, Will Smith and Martin Lawrence were riding high with Bad Boys for Life. The third entry in the buddy cop franchise that began nearly 30 years ago set series best marks with $73 million over the four-day MLK frame in January 2020. It ended up with just over $200 million domestically.

And then things got weird. Life was the last mega-grosser before the pandemic hit and stalled the industry for many months. Smith, meanwhile, became embroiled in the infamous Oscar slap controversy two years later with Chris Rock. The directors of part 3 – Adil El Arbi and Bilall Fallah – followed Life up with Batgirl which Warner Bros shockingly decided to shelve for eternity.

So it kind of feels like there’s a lot riding on Bad Boys: Ride or Die when it opens June 7th. Smith and Lawrence are back alongside Joe Pantoliano, Vanessa Hudgens, Alexander Ludwig, Paola Núñez, Jacob Scipio, and DJ Khaled. The Batgirl makers return as well. Newcomers to part 4 include Tiffany Haddish, Eric Dane, Ioan Gruffudd, Rhea Seehorn, Melanie Liburd, and Tasha Smith (pulling an Aunt Viv and replacing Theresa Randle as Lawrence’s wife).

Bad Boys hopes to shake up a summer season where plenty of titles have fallen below expectations. This is also the first test of Smith’s star power post slap. I do not expect it to match the earnings of its predecessor. Part 3 took in $62 million for the three-day portion of its premiere. Sony would probably be satisfied with that and it would quell any “Smith’s career is dead” chatter.

I’m estimating a start that might not totally quell that conversation in the mid to late 40s.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die opening weekend prediction: $47.3 million

For my The Watchers prediction, click here:

Space Jam Review

For reasons I cannot really explain, I never saw 1996’s Space Jam until yesterday. Followers of my blog know I’m a bit of a movie lover (hence the blog). Yet there’s plenty of films I haven’t watched. Gone with the Wind springs to mind. I still haven’t caught up with Demi Moore’s take on The Scarlet Letter and it came out a year before this one.

However, I was 17 when Michael Jordan’s collaboration with the Looney Tunes was released in theaters and it was a huge hit. I’m also a massive basketball fan and was an ardent admirer of #23 (who had just won his fourth NBA Championship in the months prior to Jam‘s release). Hell, I even had the soundtrack on CD. It featured Seal’s cover of “Fly Like an Eagle”. There was also “Hit ‘Em High” and it featured the divine hop hop quintet of B-Real, Coolio, Method Man, LL Cool J, and Busta Rhymes. The biggest hit causes some trepidation nowadays as the picture opens with the crooning of R. Kelly and “I Believe I Can Fly”.

It seems a bit silly to recount the plot all this time later, but here goes. Space Jam takes place in that strange time known as Michael Jordan’s first retirement. That’s when the superstar chose to play baseball and ended up in the Minor Leagues. That aforementioned first scene set to Kelly’s syrupy ballad is actually a touching one that features MJ as a young tyke on the court with his father. Followers of Jordan know why the sequence likely had some emotional resonance with him.

The comedy begins in another animated realm where Mr. Swackhammer (voiced by Danny DeVito) lords over his minions in a place titled Moron Mountain. That locale is part of an amusement park in need of more sizzling attractions. Swackhammer decides he wants to recruit the Looney Tunes characters (against their will) to join the party. When Bugs Bunny, Porky Pig, Sylvester, Tweety Bird, the Tasmanian Devil and others are given the proposition – they challenge the newly formed Monstars to a basketball game. If they win, they’re free to go and resume their normal cartoon hijinks.

Swackhammer won’t go down without some creative team building so he steals the bodies of NBA stalwarts like Charles Barkley, Muggy Bogues, and Patrick Ewing to join his squad. Bugs and company have an ace up their sleeve, however, with the greatest of all time.

The blend of animation and live-action still holds up quite well from the mid 90s. At the time, it was quite cutting edge. This Jam runs just 88 minutes and mostly flies by. Jordan isn’t asked to do Shakespeare here. He plays a version of himself and does it well. The screenplay even has some fun with his many corporate connections by name dropping his many commercial brands (from Hanes to McDonald’s) at one point. Wayne Knight (fresh off being decimated by Dinos in Jurassic Park) plays MJ’s pushy but good-hearted publicist. Jordan’s family (Theresa Randle is his wife) appear intermittently but aren’t really a focus. MJ has a game to win after all and he takes it personally.

Having the Looney Tunes posse allows for plenty of humorous moments. No, this isn’t them at the height of their glory, but they still deliver. Interestingly enough, I found myself wanting the script to delve more into certain subplots. Having been a viewer of Inside the NBA for many years, I have no doubt that Charles Barkley could have been utilized to better effect (the dude’s hilarious).

My overall reaction to Space Jam is that I totally get why it’s become so appreciated. Is it a classic? No. Does it take its limited premise and make it amusing? Yes. In 2021, Lebron James has become the face of his league and that’s warranted the just out sequel. I won’t wait 25 years to watch it and my review of A New Legacy is coming to the blog soon.

Not everything has changed in the last quarter century by the way. Bill Murray shows up out of nowhere at a couple of key times. You’re a Google search away from reading stories about the legendary actor doing that all over the world. Google may not have been a thing 25 years ago, but Mr. Murray popping up unexpectedly to make things better is timeless.

*** (out of four)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNhSFXqsChM

Bad Boys for Life Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (01/16): Better than expected reviews are pushing my estimate from $38.6 million to $45.6 million

A quarter century after the original made Will Smith an action hero, he teams again with Martin Lawrence in Bad Boys for Life next weekend. This is the duo’s third collaboration playing cops battling European baddies and Michael Bay (who made the first two) is away from the director’s chair with Adil El Arbi and Bilall Fallah taking over. Franchise players Joe Pantoliano and Theresa Randle are back and newcomers include Vanessa Hudgens, Alexander Ludwig, Charles Melton, and Paola Nunez.

The MLK holiday frame caps off a busy few months for the Artist Formerly Known as Fresh Prince. Last summer, he had a huge hit with Aladdin. In the fall, he experienced a flop with Gemini Man and voiced the lead character in the decently performing family pic Spies in Disguise. 

Back in the spring of 1995, the original Boys took in $15 million for its start with an eventual $65 million gross. Eight years later, Bad Boys II tripled that debut with $46 million with an overall tally of $138 million.

Seventeen years is a long break between entries and 2019 showed us that franchise fatigue was real in many cases. One example was Men in Black: International, which Mr. Smith steered clear from.

Mu guess is that part 3 won’t match its predecessor’s earnings and that’s even with the extra Monday due to the holiday. A decent comp could be Ride Along 2, which made $41 million over MLK four years back. That was under the $48 million that the first Ride hauled in. I’ll say Smith and Lawrence’s reported last ride hovers around the $40 million mark.

Bad Boys for Life opening weekend prediction: $45.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Dolittle prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/09/dolittle-box-office-prediction/

This Day in Movie History: December 27

This Day in Movie History – December 27 – brings us another trio of pictures that opened attempting to make their Oscar qualifying runs.

13 years ago brought Traffic, Steven Soderbegh’s epic pic which explored the war on drugs from various different angles with multiple storylines. With an all-star cast featuring Michael Douglas, Benicio del Toro, Don Cheadle, Catherine Zeta-Jones, and Don Cheadle, Traffic won Oscars for its Direction, Supporting Actor (del Toro), and Adapted Screenplay. It would lose Best Picture to Ridley Scott’s Gladiator. It was a massive box office success earning $124 million domestically. **Blogger’s note: a few scenes of Traffic were filmed in my town of Columbus, Ohio and I got to witness part of it being filmed at the Ohio Statehouse. I saw Michael Douglas descend the steps of the Statehouse (it’s early in the movie) and I even got to chat briefly with Mr. Soderbergh, who was wearing an Ohio State ball cap (Go Bucks!).

22 years ago today saw the release of Fried Green Tomatoes, Jon Avnet’s Depression era comedic drama. It combined the Best Actress winner from two years prior, Jessica Tandy, with the Best Actress winner from the previous year, Kathy Bates. The pic resonated with audiences with an $82 million domestic box office tally but received Oscar nods only for Tandy in Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay, winning neither.

Milos Forman’s The People vs. Larry Flynt opened 17 years ago today. The biopic of Hustler magazine founder Larry Flynt cast Woody Harrelson in the title role with Courtney Love and Edward Norton in supporting roles. Flynt failed to resonate with moviegoers earning just $20 million. It did manage to pick up Oscar nominations (but no wins) for Forman and Harrelson.

As for actors with birthdays today, John Amos turns 74. You may know the veteran actor best for TV work from “Good Times” to “The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air” to “The West Wing” to the miniseries Roots. He’s had his share of notable film roles as well, including Coming to America, Die Hard 2, and Madea’s Witness Protection.

Actress Theresa Randle is 49 today. She’s appeared in many high-profile pics over the past coupe of decades from the two Bad Boys flicks to Sugar Hill to Beverly Hills Cop III to her starring role in Spike Lee’s Girl 6.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two birthdays performers:

John Amos was in Coming to America with Eddie Murphy

Eddie Murphy was in Beverly Hills Cop III with Theresa Randle

And that’s today in Movie History!