On the rare occasion that Daniel Day-Lewis makes a movie, it immediately becomes a potential awards player. The English legend is one of just seven people who’ve won more than two acting Oscars with his three victories represented by 1989’s My Left Foot, 2007’s There Will Be Blood and 2012’s Lincoln. He nabbed three additional lead Actor nods for 1993’s In the Name of the Father, 2002’s Gangs of New York and 2017’s Phantom Thread.
Anemone marks his first role since Thread eight years ago and it premiered at the New York Film Festival prior to its semi-wide release next Friday. The family drama is also a family affair as son Ronan Day-Lewis makes his behind the camera debut. The director and his dad share credit on the screenplay. Sean Bean, Samantha Morton and Samuel Bottomley round out the cast.
Early word-of-mouth from the Big Apple indicates its star gives a magnetic performance with a couple of key monologues, including one that’s reportedly too filthy for an Oscar clip. Buzz for the film itself is more mixed with 79% on Rotten Tomatoes. This is highly unlikely to contend for Best Picture, Director or Original Screenplay.
Yet in a Best Actor competition that is notably open at press time, Day-Lewis could certainly squeeze in. Considering the varied reaction to the pic itself, I don’t envision him making a fourth trip to the Academy’s podium. **If he did, he’d become just the second individual to do so and join Katherine Hepburn with that distinction.
Beyond the three-time winner, Anemone could be in the mix for its cinematography. If Day-Lewis receives his seventh nom, Bean and Morton could ride his coattails to supporting mentions. Both are being heralded for their contributions. For Bean, it would mark his first at-bat with Morton going for a third mention behind 1999’s Sweet and Lowdown and 2003’s In America. Their nominations seem less probable their co-star’s. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Based on the first trailer five months ago, I didn’t know what to make of Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. I had it parked in 11th (just on the outside looking in) in Best Picture for weeks. A few days ago, early word-of-mouth emerged that it was something special and today’s lapsing of the review embargo accentuates the buzz. Out September 26th, Battle has established itself as a major awards player. Leonardo DiCaprio headlines a cast including Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro, Regina Hall, Teyana Taylor and Chase Infiniti in her first big screen role.
A mix of different genres including action, comedy and thriller fused with political commentary, Battle stands at a noteworthy 96% on Rotten Tomatoes with 97 on Metacritic. It is highly possible this will be the best reviewed picture of 2025. When I updated my predictions four days ago, I ranked this 1st in Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay. Nothing I see today changes that dynamic. Instead it enhances it. This would mark Anderson’s fourth BP nominee with the others being 2007’s There Will Be Blood, 2017’s Phantom Thread and 2021’s Licorice Pizza (he was nominated for his direction with all three as well). Anderson would be up for his sixth screenwriting prize after Boogie Nights, Magnolia, Blood, Inherent Vice and Pizza. He has yet to take home gold and that may be about to change.
Nominations down the line in Casting, Cinematography, Editing, Original Score (by Jonny Greenwood) and perhaps Sound could be in the mix. Warner Bros is going to have their hands full campaigning for this and Sinners in multiple races against one another. The studio may end up racking up a host of victories between the two.
Moving to the ensemble, DiCaprio will be vying for his seventh at bat (his sole win came for 2015’s The Revenant). His placement in lead Actor is not guaranteed. Simply put, plenty of voters may take him for granted. He wasn’t nominated for his two titles that won BP (Titanic and The Departed). Nevertheless the film’s momentum may get him in the quintet.
For months, prognosticators have wondered whether Hall, Taylor or Infiniti will be the smart play in Supporting Actress. Reaction suggests Taylor is the most likely to make the cut, but that Infiniti could do so as well.
Mr. Penn (a two-time Best Actor recipient for 2003’s Mystic River and 2008’s Milk) looks to nab his inaugural Supporting Actor mention and sixth nom overall. It would be his first since Milk seventeen years ago.
Bottom line: it could be said that Sinners, Hamnet and Sentimental Value all have win narratives for the biggest prize of all. Now we certainly have Another. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Among a cast of all-stars during his eight season stint, Bill Hader’s impressions and original characters on SNL were responsible for countless highlights. If he were only known for impersonations, he would probably belong near the top of this list. His Alan Alda is uncanny and there’s Al Pacino, James Carville, Harvey Fierstein, Vincent Price, Daniel Day-Lewis in an uproarious take on his There Will Be Blood character, and Clint Eastwood. Then there’s Keith Morrison from Dateline NBC which Hader revealed iin interviews to be his favorite show.
Fresh creations would put him near the top of the list like Italian talk show host Vinny Vedecci or past his prime newsman Herb Welch. Hader’s haunted Vietnam vet turned puppeteer gave us a classic sketch alongside host Seth MacFarlane.
Then, of course, there’s clubgoer Stefon and his amazing Weekend Update bits with Seth Meyers. John Mulaney and Hader collaborated on one of the show’s most side splitting creations. Hader could not keep a straight face during Stefon bits. Neither could we for so much of Hader’s run. #4 will be up soon!
Earlier this summer, I completed a blog series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!
Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there were always five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.
This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in. It started with 2008 and that post can be accessed here:
We now move to 2007. And we, of course, know five movies that would make the cut. That would be the quintet of pics that got nominated. No Country for Old Men from the Coen Brothers was the night’s big winner with four victories: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor (Javier Bardem), and Adapted Screenplay. It also nabbed four additional nominations.
Tying Country for the most mentions is Paul Thomas Anderson’s There Will Be Blood with 8 nods and two wins for Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis) and Cinematography.
The other three contenders all took home one Oscar. Joe Wright’s Atonement received 7 noms and was victorious for the Original Score. Jason Reitman’s Juno tallied 4 mentions and a win in Original Screenplay. Tony Gilroy’s Michael Clayton achieved 7 nods with Tilda Swinton taking Supporting Actress.
Moving to the five pictures that I believe would’ve joined an expanded cut, Pixar strikes again. For 2008, I picked Wall-E as an addition. For 2007, the acclaimed Ratatouille had five nominations and a win for Animated Feature. I believe that’s enough that we would’ve seen it included.
The same goes for Julian Schnabel’s The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Schnabel was in the mix for Best Director and it was also up in heavy hitter races Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Film Editing. It could’ve been #6 on the board.
After that, it gets a little tricky. There are a few films that generated a couple of important nods, but didn’t manage to break out elsewhere. Away from Her saw Julie Christie in contention for Actress plus an Adapted Screenplay mention. The Savages saw Laura Linney in Best Actress along with Original Screenplay. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford made two lists for Supporting Actor (Casey Affleck and Cinematography). Yet its reputation has grown in time. Elizabeth: The Golden Age saw Cate Blanchett in Actress and it won Costume Design. 3:10 to Yuma was up for Original Score and Sound Mixing. Ultimately I decided none of these would make the dance.
The hardest film to leave off was The Bourne Ultimatum. The third chapter in Matt Damon’s action franchise went 3 for 3 by taking both Sound races (they’ve since been combined) and Film Editing. However, I just couldn’t pull the trigger on it finding a spot among the ten.
The second toughest to leave off is La Vie en Rose for which Marion Cotillard took home Best Actress (as well as a Makeup victory). It didn’t, on the other hand, score well in precursors.
So what other three pictures get in? Tim Burton’s Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street won Art Direction and was up for Actor (Johnny Depp) and Costume Design. It also nabbed a Critics Choice nod and won the Golden Globe for Musical/Comedy (over Juno).
The Globes and Critics Choice also found room for Ridley Scott’s American Gangster. It underperformed at Oscar with two inclusions for Supporting Actress and Art Direction. Yet I suspect it might’ve just made it.
Into the Wild from Sean Penn is my final pick. It was another underwhelming performer with two spots for Supporting Actor (Hal Holbrook) and Film Editing. The Critics Choice inclusion puts it barely over some of the aforementioned hopefuls.
There you have it! That means my expanded ten 2007 lineup consists of:
I’ve been grooving to the beat of Paul Thomas Anderson’s cinematic vibes for a quarter century. There was the magnificent Boogie Nights in 1997 and the iconic Daniel Day-Lewis milkshake monologue in There Will Be Blood ten years later. A decade after that, my PTA appetite was satiated by Phantom Thread.
His latest is Licorice Pizza and it’s his most laid back experience. This coming-of-age slice of life takes place in the Valley circa 1973. It feels lived in and authentic and personal. There’s individual scenes where the filmmaker’s brilliance is on full display. Like all of his efforts, there’s memorable performances. And unlike most of his catalogue, this Almost Famous feeling flick has flaws I couldn’t overlook. It’s almost joyous and almost worth the viewing and ultimately more problematic than rewarding.
Loosely based on the teen years of former child actor Gary Goetzman (now a highly successful producing partner of Tom Hanks), Cooper Hoffman is 15-year-old Gary Valentine. He’s costarred in movies and commercials and is far more confident than anyone his age has a right to be. That self-assured nature is evident when he asks 25-year-old photographer’s assistant Alana Kane (Alana Haim) out on a date. She rebuffs his advances at first but ends up meeting him out. The two strike up a friendship and the benefit for us is watching Hoffman and Haim shine in their acting debuts. The son of Anderson’s late frequent collaborator Philip Seymour Hoffman and one third of a well-known rock band, Hoffman and Haim are naturals. The drawback is an age difference I couldn’t overlook… so let’s go there.
This is where the sunny tone of Pizza conflicted with their borderline (perhaps over borderline) inappropriate coupling. It’s not overtly sexual and Alana is well aware that hanging with the decade younger Gary is far from normal. Yet there’s enough of a leftover distasteful feeling that it hindered the entertainment value for me. One could argue Gary is more mature than Alana and perhaps that justifies some of what happens. That’s a tough needle to thread and I just couldn’t get there.
Pizza has a lazy hangout atmosphere that recalls Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Like that picture, it’s steeped in exploring a different showbiz era and the technical aspects we expect from PTA (production design, cinematography, costumes, and more) are top notch.
The episodic nature is hit or miss. Pizza‘s best course involves Bradley Cooper as hairdresser turned producer Jon Peters. His segment moves at a thrilling clip as Gary’s failing waterbed business and the 70s era gasoline shortage play important roles. I can’t say the same for Sean Penn’s bit as an aging movie star (based on William Holden) and his motorcycle exploits. By the time we arrive at Alana trying a new career as a campaign worker for conflicted mayoral candidate Joel Wachs (Benny Safdie), the pic was starting to run on fumes.
When a director of immense capabilities makes an almost misfire, there’s no denying it’s more of a letdown. That’s where I stand with Licorice Pizza and it brings me no joy to deliver that news.
Now that I’ve completed by Case Of posts for the 10 Best Picture contenders, I’m moving on to the 25 hopefuls for Best Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor. I’ll alternate alphabetically among the categories between them and that means Paul Thomas Anderson’s behind the camera work for Licorice Pizza is first up!
The Case for Paul Thomas Anderson:
Prior to Pizza being delivered in 2021, PTA as he’s called had already received 8 nominations from the Academy between his producing, directing, and writing. He’s 0 for 8. He has three more at bats with his 70s set coming-of-age tale in Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. In other words, there could be an overdue factor at play.
The Case Against Paul Thomas Anderson:
Licorice Pizza tied CODA with the fewest amount of nods for the BP nominees. Unlike his previous BP contenders There Will Be Blood and Phantom Thread, there were no acting nominations for his ensemble. And there’s simply the fact that Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) is the major frontrunner.
Previous Nominations: 2 (for directing only)
There Will Be Blood (2007); Phantom Thread (2017)
The Verdict:
There’s a decent chance that PTA’s zero wins streak will be broken at the ceremony, but it would come in Original Screenplay (where it appears to be down to Pizza or Belfast). It will not be broken here.
My Case Of posts will continue with Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye…
We’ve reached our seventh movie for my Case Of posts focused on the ten Best Picture hopefuls and it brings us to Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza. If you missed my earlier ones, you can find them here:
Between his producing credits, direction, and screenplays – Anderson had already received 8 Oscar nominations without a victory (2007’s There Will Be Blood and 2017’s Phantom Thread were up for BP). He adds three more with Pizza for Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. The Academy might feel that it’s time to honor one of the most acclaimed filmmakers of the past quarter century.
The Case Against Licorice Pizza:
Note that I only mentioned three overall nods and that ties the lowest of the 10 contenders along with CODA. This failed to nab mentions in other key categories – many thought Alana Haim could sneak in for Actress and lots of prognosticators (including myself) had Bradley Cooper getting a Supporting Actor nomination. Furthermore, its exclusion in Editing is notable (historically no BP winners get the big prize without competing in that race).
The Verdict:
The best hope for Pizza to get a piece of the Oscar pie is in Original Screenplay where it appears to be in a fierce competition with Belfast. Don’t expect a BP delivery.
My Case Of posts will continue with Nightmare Alley…
When Paul Thomas Anderson writes and directs, the Academy takes notice and that won’t change with Licorice Pizza. Out in limited release November 26th before a Christmas Day expansion, the social media embargo is lapsed. Early word indicates the coming-of-age dramedy set in the Valley circa 1973 is one of the filmmaker’s most accessible and lighter works. And there are certainly categories where Oscar voters may bite.
Six out of the last seven PTA pictures have nabbed nominations. Two (There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread) contended for Best Picture and its maker made it both times for his direction. He has been nominated five times for screenwriting with the aforementioned titles as well as Boogie Nights, Magnolia, and Inherent Vice. Despite the multiple ballot appearances, PTA has yet to get his hands on a gold statue.
That could change here, but it’s no guarantee. I do believe the initial buzz suggests a Best Picture nod is likely and he could certainly be recognized for directing. I don’t foresee wins in either race.
Original Screenplay is a different story. Belfast is the main competition at the moment and that’s significant considering it’s the frontrunner for Picture. However, I could see a narrative developing where Anderson could emerge victorious partly as a career achievement/overdue honor.
Down the line recognition for Editing might be its strongest opportunity in tech derbies. For the actors, PTA’s filmography has resulted in nine nominations for its performers. There’s just one win with Daniel Day-Lewis in Blood. Interestingly, we’ve seen three nominees each in Actor, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress. None for Best Actress, but that’s where Pizza has perhaps the most feasible chance.
Alana Haim’s performance is already getting raves. The downside is that Best Actress looks awfully competitive in 2021 and it could be an uphill battle. She’ll need some critics awards love and precursors. Same goes for Cooper Hoffman who makes his big screen debut. He’s the son of the late Philip, who PTA featured in Hard Eight, Boogie Nights, Magnolia, Punch-Drunk Love, and The Master. He too is being lauded though breaking into Actor could be an even taller order for him.
Finally, that brings us to Bradley Cooper. Playing film producer and Barbra Streisand’s former hairdresser Jon Peters, this looked like the kind of juicy role that might finally get the four-time acting contender some hardware. I’ve had Cooper listed at #1 in my Supporting Actor predictions since I began doing them over the summer (even in my updated estimates from earlier in the evening). It seems that Cooper’s screen time is quite limited in this… enough so that he might miss the dance altogether. One bright side is that Supporting Actor is so wide open that even his brief appearance could make enough of an impression on the Academy. I do suspect that Cooper will, at the least, not be in the top spot when I update next week.
Bottom line: the Pizza party at the Oscars could involve Picture, Director, and absolutely Original Screenplay. The cast faces some challenges. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
After four posts focusing on the acting races at the 2021 Oscars, it’s time to turn to Best Director. If you missed those entries on the lead and supporting performer derbies, you can find them here:
With the directing category, I do believe there’s three filmmakers that have likely punched their ticket to a nomination. Before we get there, let’s take a look at how my projections panned out at the same early November time frame in 2019 and 2020.
Two years back, I correctly identified four of the five contenders: winner Bong Joon-ho (Parasite) as well as Sam Mendes (1917), Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), and Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood). Todd Phillips (Joker) was mentioned in Other Possibilities. 2020 was more unpredictable with two months left to go and that resulted in only two directors being accurately named: Chloe Zhao (Nomadland), who took the gold, and David Fincher (Mank). Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) was in Other Possibilities while neither Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) or surprise nominee Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) were yet listed in my top ten.
Back to 2021 and the three individuals who I believe stand probable shots at making the cut. They are Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), and Denis Villeneuve (Dune).
It was 28 years ago that Campion was nominated for The Piano. If it hadn’t been for Oscar juggernaut Schindler’s List, she likely would’ve been making a speech. Upon its premiere in Venice, Campion took the Silver Lion (equivalent to this competition) for Dog. I don’t see her being left off the ballot.
Belfast is the current frontrunner for Best Picture and it’s hard to envision writer/director Branagh not making it in. If so, it would be his first nod in directing since Henry V some 32 years back.
Dune is being heralded for its technical wizardry and it should pick up numerous down the line wins and nominations. Five years after his behind the camera work was recognized for Arrival, Villeneuve should be a factor again.
Interestingly, I don’t feel there’s a clear favorite to win. There are plausible scenarios for any member of this trio to emerge victorious. Campion, Branagh, and Villeneuve constitute my top 3 (in that order), but it’s more of a 1a, 1b, and 1c at press time.
As for the other two slots, there’s a few contenders stemming from unseen product. There’s big names in that bunch: Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley, who won four years ago for The Shape of Water), Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza, a two-time nominee for There Will Be Blood and Phantom Thread), Ridley Scott (for House of Gucci and not The Last Duel), Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up, previously nominated for The Big Short), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Tick, Tick… Boom!), and Steven Spielberg (West Side Story, a two-time winner for Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan).
Any of these gentlemen could bubble up to the surface once their pictures are screened. I’m sticking with the two I’ve had in my five recently: del Toro and Anderson.
King Richard has a chance to win Best Picture, but I’m skeptical its maker Reinaldo Marcus Green makes it here. The sports drama seems destined to be recognized more for its performances, but if the Academy really falls for it, Green could be theoretically be swept in. That holds true for Joel Coen (The Tragedy of Macbeth) and Pablo Larrain (Spencer) as well.
Lastly, Thomas Vinterberg’s nod in 2020 for Another Round came out of nowhere. While it was pegged to take International Feature Film (which it did), Round was not nominated in Best Picture. There’s a slew of directors who could fill the “surprise” slot this time around (many from foreign features): Pedro Almodovar (ParallelMothers), Julia Ducournau (Titane), Asghar Farhari (A Hero), Paolo Sorrentino (The Hand of God), Joachim Trier (The Worst Person in the World). I wouldn’t completely count out Rebecca Hall for Passing. Yet none of these upset selections are in my top ten.
The one that is: Jonas Poher Rasmussen for festival darling Flee. While I don’t have it nabbing a Best Pic nom at the moment, I do foresee the Danish doc contending in Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature Film. That kind of attention could cause the voters to include him.
Here’s how those rankings look at the start of November:
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1)
Today’s Streaming Guide bring us an absolute masterclass in filmmaking and acting that is currently available via Netflix:
Paul Thomas Anderson’s There Will Be Blood is an early 20th century tale of oil mining and greed with a towering and Oscar winning performance from Daniel Day-Lewis. As Daniel Plainview, a ruthless prospector turned tycoon – Day-Lewis pretty much won the Academy Award as soon as the picture screened for critics. Blood was also victorious in the Cinematography category and deservedly so. The pic also features dynamite supporting work from Paul Dano as a scheming preacher. And there’s a line regarding milkshakes that stands along the hit Kelis track as the best 21st century milkshake references.
Blood continued Anderson’s ascent into greatness after such features as Boogie Nights, Magnolia, and Punch-Drunk Love. It has since continued with The Master, Inherent Vice, and Phantom Thread (which is headlined by another terrific Day-Lewis role). I have a special place for Boogie Nights, which I considered to be the best movie of the 1990s not named Pulp Fiction. As far as PTA’s output, this ranks second.
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