Tag: The Woman in the Yard

April 11-13 Box Office Predictions

After a record breaking start, A Minecraft Movie should easily repeat in first position at the box office. Yet there’s a handful of newcomers jockeying for slots 2-6. We have the faith-based animated tale The King of Kings, Rami Malek’s spy thriller The Amateur, Blumhouse thriller Drop, Alex Garland’s Iraqi Freedom drama Warfare, and episodes 6-8 of the Christian show The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:

The King of Kings Box Office Prediction
The Amateur Box Office Prediction
Drop Box Office Prediction
Warfare Box Office Prediction
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 Box Office Prediction

Based on the best selling video game of all time, A Minecraft Movie achieved the best opening for a picture based on a video game (more on that below). I’m estimating a sophomore drop between 50-55% and that should put it somewhere in the mid 70s-low 80s.

A report surfaced today that The King of Kings has already taken in approximately $8 million in pre-sales. That’s surprising, but Angel Studios has certainly exceeded projections before via Sound of Freedom. A low 20s performance would easily put it in the runner-up spot.

After that it gets tricky. The Amateur, Warfare, and Drop could all open similarly in the $7-11 million range. I’ve got them placing in the order of the previous sentence with The Chosen in sixth.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $77.9 million

2. The King of Kings

Predicted Gross: $21.4 million

3. The Amateur

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million

4. Warfare

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

5. Drop

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

6. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (April 4-6)

The box office got a much needed jolt as A Minecraft Movie kicked off well above forecasts. With $162.7 million, it is 2025’s largest start thus far and, as mentioned, the highest video game adapted feature in history. The previous record was held by 2023’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie with $146 million. I was way off with a prediction of only $92.5 million. With a less than expected B+ Cinemascore, it should fall further than the 37% that Mario dropped in its second weekend. Yet any way you cut it, this is a fantastic result for Warner Bros.

A Working Man with Jason Statham slid to second with $7.3 million, slightly under my $8 million call. The action thriller has made $27 million after ten days.

The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 placed third with $6.9 million, not quite matching my $7.8 million estimate. Episodes 3-5 of the popular program made a little more than half of the nearly $12 million achieved by Part 1. Per above, diminishing returns should continue with Part 3.

Disney dud Snow White was fourth with $5.9 million (I said $6.7 million). The troubling three-week tally is $77 million.

Horror flick The Woman in the Yard was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the high five. With $4.5 million, the two-week total is $16 million.

I had Part 1 of the The Chosen in fifth with $5.2 million, but it plummeted 84% to seventh with $1.8 million for $17 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 4-6 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (04/03): On the eve of its premiere, a very significant update as Minecraft tracking is going through the roof. I’m upping my projection from $57.5 million to a whopping $92.5 million (!)

A Minecraft Movie starring Jason Momoa and Jack Black looks to dominate the charts while The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 hopes to capture a hefty portion of the audience that witnessed Part 1 this past weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

A Minecraft Movie Box Office Prediction
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 Box Office Prediction

Minecraft, based on the best selling video game of all time, should outgross the rest of the top five combined. However, that’s with a caveat. My mid to high 50s estimate isn’t exactly a robust number for this IP and would be considered a slight disappointment.

The rest of the top 5 is a little tricky. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 encompasses episodes 3-5 of the popular faith-based TV show. Part 1 easily outpaced expectations (more on that below). The follow-up shows should see diminishing returns, but it could still be good enough for second or third place. According to the info I’ve seen, Part 1 should still be in multiplexes and it might remain in the top five.

As for holdovers, Jason Statham’s A Working Man clocked a surprising #1 start and it may lose around half its audience while Disney’s dud Snow White may lose slightly more.

Here’s how I have the chart playing out:

1. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $92.5 million

2. A Working Man

Predicted Gross: $8 million

3. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

4. Snow White

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

5. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (March 28-30)

In an upset, A Working Man capitalized on the ho-hum Snow White reception and was first with $15.5 million. The action thriller rose above my $13.9 million prediction and is another decent hit for Mr. Statham.

Disney’s Snow White live-action retelling tumbled 66% to $14.3 million, below my $16.4 million projection. The ten-day take is $66 million as it tries to reach $100 million domestically.

The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1, as mentioned, easily rose above forecasts in third with $11.7 million. That soars past my $6.4 million call and is quite a heavenly result for the Fathom Events distributed property.

Horror flick The Woman in the Yard with Danielle Deadwyler debuted in fourth with $9.3 million, surpassing my $6.7 million estimate. With a C- Cinemascore, the sophomore drop should be substantial. Lucky for it, the budget is reportedly a meager $12 million.

The biggest disappointment of the week besides Snow‘s fall was Death of a Unicorn. In fifth place, the horror comedy with Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega took in just $5.7 million compared to my $8.8 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 28-30 Box Office Predictions

A quartet of newcomers hope to populate spots 2-5 this weekend with Snow White looking to cling to first place after a muted debut. We have the Jason Statham action pic A Working Man, Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega in the horror comedy Death of a Unicorn, more serious scary movie The Woman in the Yard with Danielle Deadwyler, and the first two episodes of the popular faith-based program The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

A Working Man Box Office Prediction
Death of a Unicorn Box Office Prediction
The Woman in the Yard Box Office Prediction
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 Box Office Prediction

Snow White had the lowest modern-day premiere for any of the Mouse House live-action adaptations (more on that below). To add insult to injury, its B+ Cinemascore grade is also the worst of the sub genre. The similarly performing Dumbo from 2019 plummeted 60% in its sophomore frame. I would expect a similar result for Snow White and that should mean a mid-teens gross.

That might keep it in first place as I have A Working Man in the low teens for a runner-up showing (it has an outside shot of being #1). I am placing Unicorn just below $10 million with Yard and Chosen both in the mid single digits. Considering the sad state of affairs at multiplexes financially, that should mean 80% of the high 5 is fresh product.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Snow White

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

2. A Working Man

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

3. Death of a Unicorn

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

4. The Woman in the Yard

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

5. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

Box Office Results (March 21-23)

Pick your cliched headline – it was a sleepy opening… it was a ho-hum debut…

They apply to Snow White which, as mentioned, experienced the weakest unveiling of any Disney live-action rendering at $42.2 million. That’s below my $49.6 million take and it’s a pretty impossible spin job for its studio to attempt. Some articles have correctly pointed out that Mufasa: The Lion King premiered to lower numbers but legged out nicely. The difference is that Mufasa rolled out over the holidays where drop-offs are insignificant. I don’t expect that to be the case here.

As I suspected, slots 2-6 were separated by just over a million bucks. That made it tricky to know where the pics would land. Black Bag stayed in second place with $4.2 million, on target with my $4 million prediction. Steven Soderbergh’s spy tale sits at $14 million after ten days.

Captain America: Brave New World was third with $4 million, in line with my $4.1 million call. The MCU entry is nearing $200 million with $192 million in the bank after six weeks.

Novocaine slid from 1st to 4th with $3.6 million, a tad below my $4.1 million projection. The two-week take is $15 million.

Mickey 17 rounded out the top five with $3.6 million. My estimate? $3.6 million! The three-week earnings are an underwhelming $40 million.

Finally, critically panned Robert De Niro (and Robert De Niro) Mob saga The Alto Knights was flat in sixth with $3.1 million (I said $3.7 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Woman in the Yard Box Office Prediction

Danielle Deadwyler stars in The Woman in the Yard, the latest horror flick from Universal/Blumhouse. Reuniting the lead with her Carry-On director Jaume Collet-Serra, costars include Okwui Okpokwasili, Russell Hornsby, Peyton Jackson, and Estella Kahiha.

Coming in at a brisk 87 minutes, I still question whether genre fans will make the time for it. Some may opt for Death of a Unicorn, which opens against it. A best case scenario might be a gross just north of $10 million, similar to Talk to Me from 2022. Yet that pic had more buzz than this one. I’ll say mid to high single digits is where this lands.

The Woman in the Yard opening weekend prediction: $6.7 million

For my A Working Man prediction, click here:

A Working Man Box Office Prediction

For my Death of a Unicorn prediction, click here:

Death of a Unicorn Box Office Prediction

For my The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 prediction, click here:

The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 Box Office Prediction

Death of a Unicorn Box Office Prediction

After being unveiled at South by Southwest earlier this month, A24’s Death of a Unicorn gallops into theaters March 28th. The latest chapter in the eat the rich comedy horror genre comes from writer/director Alex Scharfman with Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega headlining. Costars include Will Poulter, Téa Leoni, and Richard E. Grant.

Critical reaction is mixed with 63% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 56 Metacritic. Better reviews could’ve bolstered the buzz. A debut in the neighborhood of Abigail ($10.2 million) is certainly feasible. There is competition from The Woman in the Yard (a more serious scary offering) that could keep genre fans away. I’ll say Unicorn falls under $10 million unless Ortega’s Wednesday fans turn out in larger force than I’m anticipating.

Death of a Unicorn opening weekend prediction: $8.8 million

For my A Working Man prediction, click here:

A Working Man Box Office Prediction

For my The Woman in the Yard prediction, click here:

The Woman in the Yard Box Office Prediction

For my The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 prediction, click here:

The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 Box Office Prediction