Continuing with my Oscar series outlining the cases for and against nominees in the top six categories, we arrive at Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman. This is my second of (gulp) 34 posts for films and individuals picked in the Picture, Director, and the acting races. If you missed yesterday’s writeup about Ford v Ferrari, you can find it here:
Scorsese’s latest is an epic unification of screen legends Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci in the genre they’re known best for… the gangster tale. The three and a half hour opus certainly has awards gravitas. It was pegged as a likely nominee from the moment it was announced. Both Pacino and Pesci were named in Supporting Actor and the pic sports 10 nominations, which is tied for second along with 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Scorsese is obviously a legendary figure and this is his ninth effort to get a Picture nod (the only winner being 2006’s The Departed).
The critics have been on its side and it has a 96% Rotten Tomatoes score. Several critics group named it as the year’s best.
The Case Against The Irishman
That attention has not translated to the big awards shows yet. The Golden Globes surprised most when they picked 1917 over this in Best Drama. The Critics Choice Awards chose Hollywood. Some have griped about its length. De Niro, unlike Pacino and Pesci, couldn’t manage a nod with the Globes, SAG, or the Academy. And then there’s the still unsettled notion that the Academy could have a Netflix problem, despite the streamer leading this year’s studios in total number of nominations. In 2018, Roma appeared to be the front runner until that Netflix property lost to Green Book.
The Verdict
There was little doubt that The Irishman would garner plenty of attention in various categories, including here. Yet viability as a winner is much in question. Scorsese’s latest could still take the top prize, but it appears to be a bit of a long shot at the moment.
When this blog started in the fall of 2012, Matthew McConaughey was coming off a solid two-year period which saw him headline the surprise legal drama hit TheLincolnLawyer and attract rave reviews for his supporting role in MagicMike.
Yet 2013 elevated the actor to a whole new stratosphere. His work in the acclaimed indie pic Mud garnered Oscar chatter. He had a memorable cameo alongside Leonardo DiCaprio in Martin Scorsese’s TheWolfofWallStreet. It ironically turned out that McConaughey’s scene partner in that film was his biggest competition for an Oscar. DallasBuyersClub would see the Texan playing Ron Woodruff, a real life AIDS patient in the 1980s. McConaughey’s work was praised and he took home the gold statue. His luck streak continued into the following year starring in Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar, which stands as his largest grossing live-action feature.
Since then? Well, let’s just say the McConaissance has been interrupted. Or borrowing his most famous catchphrase from 1993’s DazedandConfused – it’s not Alright Alright.
This weekend, his stoner comedy TheBeachBum tanked at the box office. Its approximate $1.8 million opening is the worst release of the actor’s career. And it follows a pattern of now seven live-action duds (he did provide voice work in the animated pics Sing and KuboandtheTwoStrings). And to give a modicum of credit, he did skip the subpar sequel MagicMikeXXL.
At least Nicolas Cage had a string of action hits after his Oscar before delving into VOD territory. McConaughey hasn’t been so fortunate and he quickly needs a critical or commercial success to redeem things. His list of recent material is an unsuccessful and largely forgettable one. In three years, we’ve had:
FreeStateofJones, his summer 2016 Civil War drama that took in $20 million domestically against a $50 million budget. Its Rotten Tomatoes score was 46%.
TheSeaofTrees from later that summer. The drama wasn’t even released wide and didn’t make a million dollars (13% RT score).
True life crime drama Gold in January 2017. 42% RT. $14 million gross stateside.
TheDarkTower in summer 2017. The critically maligned Stephen King adaptation had a 16% RT rating and immediately ended the possibility of a franchise with earnings of $50 million.
Another based on actual events crime drama from last fall – WhiteBoyRick. 58% RT and $24 million gross.
Noir thriller Serenity from earlier this year. Barely promoted, it made an embarrassing $8 million total with a 23% RT score.
And now TheBeachBum, which won’t reach $10 million domestically either. It’s time for McConaughey’s people to find him some better stuff. His most memorable appearances lately have been in car commercials. If they can’t manage to do so, there’s always 2013.
Jonah Hill has two Oscar nominations to his credit in Supporting Actor for 2011’s Moneyball and 2013’s TheWolfofWallStreet. Now the actor broadens his horizons this fall with Mid90s, his directorial debut which he also wrote. It has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival.
Based on early reactions from critics, Hill has made an impressive first feature behind the camera. The coming of age dramedy stars Sunny Suljic, Lucas Hedges (who’s everywhere this awards season with BoyErased and BenIsBack), and Katherine Waterston.
While reviews are solid, Mid90s doesn’t look like Best Picture kind of material for Academy voters. It’s best chance could be recognition for Hill in the Original Screenplay race.
Bottom line: while this looks poised to kickstart a second career for its maker, Oscar chatter could be hard to come by.
The film opens October 19 domestically. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
In a way, WarDogs is a bit of a companion piece to TheBigShort. We have a director (Todd Phillips) known for humorous material making a more serious and based on true events effort about controversial policies during the Bush/Cheney era. We have a mix of dramatic and comedic actors telling the tale. However, whereas Adam McKay’s aforementioned 2014 picture was a big success, Dogs falls short.
Its failings are certainly not due to lack of an interesting story. We begin in 2005 when the Iraq conflict is at its height. While the war is dividing a nation, David (Miles Teller) is living a carefree existence in Miami as a massage therapist. His major conflict is making enough cash to support him and his pregnant girlfriend (Ana de Armas). David’s financial issues are provided a boost when he runs into his junior high best bud Efraim (Jonah Hill). He seems to be doing just fine and David soon discovers his old friend is making a killing as an arms dealer selling product to the U.S. government. Efraim soon cuts David in as a partner and their deals bring them to the Middle East, including drab Albania. It is that deal, involving selling 100 million rounds of ammo to the military, that will provide their windfall payload. It also provides all sorts of dangerous problems.
Dogs wags an understandable critical finger at the ease in which these twentysomethings with zero government or defense experience managed their exploits. As Efraim and David become richer than they ever could have envisioned, their trappings of wealth storyline feels awfully familiar. David’s relationship suffers, Efraim’s already diabolical personality grows out of control, etc… Yes, this may be a true story, but all this material felt truly well-worn.
As for performances, Hill has shown himself to be adept at both funny stuff and less funny stuff (Moneyball and TheWolfofWallStreet as the prime examples). His performance here isn’t near as effective and I couldn’t escape the notion that he seemed to be trying a bit too hard to pull off his bad guy role. Teller is a talent as well (Whiplash as prime example), but his work here is a couple notches above bland. Bradley Cooper turns up for a few minutes as a shady dealer whose character is just interesting enough that I would’ve liked to see him more.
The source material (based on a RollingStone article) should have garnered a richer experience than what Phillips gives us. WarDogs has plenty in common with TheBigShort in terms of personnel involved, but little in common with it as to lasting impression.
Before this year, Margot Robbie was primarily known as Leonardo DiCaprio’s stunning wife in 2013’s TheWolfofWallStreet and, to a lesser degree, costar to Will Smith in 2015’s Focus.
Yet it was in 2016 that she blew up big time, as the Aussie actress was perhaps the best thing in two summer flicks – TheLegendofTarzan and especially SuicideSquad, in which she teamed up with the Fresh Prince once again. Her Harley Quinn character in Squad was a bright spot in a mixed bag of an experience.
Robbie’s considerably larger star power has led to her being attached to a slew of upcoming roles. She will eventually reprise her Harley role in GothamCitySirens, which will pair her with other notable female DC super villains such as Poison Ivy and Catwoman. She’s also signed to portray notorious figure skater Tonya Harding in biopic I, Tonya.
No doubt about it – this screen bad girl had a very good 2016.
There’s a well known thing in Hollywood referred to as The Black List, a compilation of screenplays that have yet to be produced. Executives in the film industry vote on which ones that they think are the best. Since the inception of the list in 2005, some that have made it on there eventually became awards worthy material. This includes eventual Best Picture winners SlumdogMillionaire, TheKing’sSpeech, Argo, and Spotlight. There’s Best Picture nominees like Babel, Juno, AmericanHustle, TheWolfofWallStreet, Whiplash, AmericanSniper and TheRevenant. We have hit movies of all genres including Superbad, TheFighter, TheHangover, Arrival, and JohnWick.
The 2016 Black List was released today and the pic that received the most votes caught my eye. It’s BlondAmbition, a biopic about Madonna that’s set in the 1980s as she was a struggling artist in NYC before becoming the world’s most famous Material Girl. Elyse Hollander is the screenwriter and it’s probably safe to assume this will be on the silver screen in relatively short order.
A well made Madonna biopic (paging Damien Chazelle to direct) could be quite a sight to behold. And, of course, it got me thinking. Who should play her? There’s always the option of casting an unknown. After all, taking on the role of music’s most successful female artist might work better with a performer unfamiliar to our eyes.
Yet one name in particular entered my mind when I read the news today: Chloe Grace Moretz. I think she could pull it off. Even if the film took a couple of years to get off the ground, she’s only 19 right now and would certainly fit the age appropriate timing of that are in its subject’s life. I also thought of Greta Gerwig and she could be interesting, but she’s in her early 30s and Madonna would be in her early to mid 20s here. It could still work though.
What say you? What other actresses could potentially do justice to Madge?
Ladies and gentlemen, we have arrived at the best of the best of my personal favorite movie trailers of the past 25 years and that means the top five!
This has been a tremendously fun list to come up with, especially because it afforded me the opportunity to watch this friggin sweet teasers and trailers. We now get to the creme dela creme and here we go:
5. Inception (2010)
Christopher Nolan’s trailers are always pretty darn awesome and I could have included any from his Dark Knight trilogy or last year’s Interstellar. Yet the most impressive for me was our first look at his mind bending and visually groundbreaking Inception.
4. Pulp Fiction (1994)
OK, yes it’s also my favorite actual movie of the last 25 years, but that’s not why it’s included. The trailer itself with its playful tone of winning at the Cannes Film Festival (which it did) coupled with its violent images, music song shifts, and second to none cast put the trailer in a league of its own as well.
3. The Wolf of Wall Street (2013)
The spot for Martin Scorsese’s collabo with Leonardo DiCaprio’s perfectly captures the wild spirit and tremendous excess of the film itself and Kanye West’s “Black Skinhead” backing track helps, too. I remember watching this over and over again when it premiered.
2. The Social Network (2010)
David Fincher’s trailers are typically in a class of their own (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo made this list as well), but this initial trailer for the picture about the founding of Facebook is an editing masterpiece set to the beautiful strains of Radiohead’s “Creep” as covered by the Vega Choir.
Gravity (2013)
The trailer titled “Detached” for Alfonso Cuaron’s Sandra Bullock lost in space megahit earns the #1 spot here due to its dazzling visuals and the fact that it amazingly captures the suspense that the film brought forth. The original trailer for 1979’s Alien is often and justifiably considered the greatest trailer ever with its tagline “In Space, No One Can Hear You Scream”. This is our generation’s Alien trailer.
And that’ll do it, loyal blog readers! I hope you enjoyed reading this list as much as I enjoyed writing it!
This week, Bill Murray spent an hour on Howard Stern’s radio show. Hearing these two true comedic icons shoot the breeze was an absolute pleasure. Filmmakers who try to recruit the indispensible Murray to even be in their movies have a tough time getting through to him. The actor is notorious for not having a manager or publicist or checking his cell phone (which he told Howard he has because his children only text and don’t answer calls).
At one point, the conversation turned to the late, brilliant film critic Roger Ebert and Murray told a fantastic anecdote about him. Earlier in his career, Murray was not known at all for dramatic work and Roger criticized him, stating that he should stick to comedy only. Years later, when Murray saw Ebert at an event, he quoted a famous critic for making that statement. Ebert didn’t know who would make such a claim since Murray was obviously a wonderful actor in any forum. Murray reminded Roger that it was him that said it years ago. As the actor recounted, Ebert gave him a look like, “Boy, was I wrong!” The Ebert conversation ended with Murray stating his love for the critic and Howard agreed. Bill Murray’s main point: Roger Ebert loved movies.
You see that deep affection for the world of cinema in the documentary Life Itself, which recounted Roger’s career and the last few months of his life. I’ve talked about it on the blog before when reviewing that documentary and in my post on the sad day that Roger died. My general feeling is this: you can tell when a person who writes about movies loves them and when they don’t. Let me make an important distinction – I’m not talking about loving a movie that you give four stars to and not liking a movie you award with two stars. I’m speaking of being able to determine whether or not a writer truly loves the craft they’re writing about. Roger Ebert did. Many more do. Other critics and bloggers seem to revel in trashing movies far too often, at least for my taste.
When I read a critic’s work or their blogs, I want to feel like they have a deep appreciation for the subject they spend so much time writing about. Frankly, it’s the main thing I strive to achieve on my blog – which will celebrate its 2nd anniversary officially on Saturday. Don’t get me wrong – I’ve written my share of negative reviews. So does every other critic and blogger on planet Earth. Many pictures, simply, don’t measure up to expectations, are a rehash of previous material, are badly paced, etc…
Yet here’s my philosophy when it comes to writing about movies – every time those theater lights go down or (more often) I hit play on the Blu Ray or On Demand, I hope that I’m going to like what I see. I hope to have that satisfactory or even profound film watching experience that us lovers of cinema seek out again and again and again and again. I’ve had it recently with that Ebert documentary. I had it when Little Groot danced to the Jackson 5 in Guardians of the Galaxy. I had it watching the delicious twists and turns of David Fincher’s Gone Girl. I had it watching Leo DiCaprio on speaker phone suckering in a client in Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street. I had it watching Tom Hanks remind me that he’s one of the most astonishing actors in the world during the last five minutes of Captain Phillips.
And that was all in the last year! Now let’s go to just last night when I reviewed Seth MacFarlane’s A Million Ways to Die in the West. I’m a fan of his work – both “Family Guy” and 2012’s Ted. I found his sophomore directorial effort to be pretty darn disappointing. Guess what? I loved writing my review of that just as much as writing a highly positive post – the kinds I recently wrote for Her or Fruitvale Station.
Now here’s the irony: two years ago when I began this little venture, I stated that I wouldn’t write movie reviews on the blog. Boy, was I wrong! Just like I’ve been wrong about many of my box office predictions that remain the most read entries on this site. For every time I nail a prediction (or close to nail) on The Equalizer or Gone Girl, I grossly underestimate the potential of Annabelle or grossly overestimate the performance of the Sin City sequel.
I’ve now been writing movie reviews for about 23 years since I was a preteen. It took my snap decision to start the blog to rediscover my love for that exercise. Yet the movie reviews are just one part of that aforementioned love of movies. There’s plenty more posts – whether box office related or Oscar prediction related. Hell, I’ve even found myself posting about music and TV more often than I could have imagined.
In the two years since the blog began and much to the assistance of WordPress, I’ve been able to discover other movie bloggers. They may have different writing styles than myself, but they have one thing in common: they love movies too. Joe Giuliano, who predicts box office results with freakish accuracy. Thy Critic Man, Daniel Prinn and Justine B, whose reviews are a joy to read. Trevor and Jason from boxofficeace.com and their fine podcast… I just wish they did it every week! And there’s many more.
As I said on my year anniversary of the site, I sincerely cannot thank you enough for reading this site. I would love writing this blog regardless, but it means a heckuva lot more knowing that eyeballs actually see it. I appreciate each and every one of the thousands of blog views and readers in 142 countries (!) who’ve read some of my 777 (!) posts. For those who take their time to check my box office predictions or read my Oscar forecast or peruse my reviews and so forth, I can tell you what I strive for everyday on this wonderful hobby of mine. The goal is for the reader to come away with this general feeling – that guy loves movies and writing about them. And if I’ve been able to direct you in the path of something great that you haven’t seen, that’s a feeling I cherish.
Back to the beginning:
Bill Murray. Roger Ebert.
For movie lovers like me and you, think about the joy that someone like Bill Murray has brought into your lives. Caddyshack. Ghostbusters. Groundhog Day. Lost in Translation and so forth. I’ll have that feeling of excitement soon when St. Vincent premieres. Maybe it’ll be great. Or maybe not, but I love anticipating finding out and I’ll love writing about it.
For movie writers and bloggers like me and some of you, think about how Roger Ebert’s work may have influenced you. I know damn well he influenced me. He helped teach me how to put that indescribable affection for this world of movies into words. Don’t get me wrong – I am no Roger Ebert and never will be. I’m just trying my best to put my perspective on movies before the reader and hope you enjoy it.
The thing about movies is this – as I described in an earlier post, it’s a Never Ending Story. There’s always more to discover. There’s always something new to write about. There’s always the joy of revisiting older titles and or rediscovering something about a favorite that you hadn’t noticed before. There’s always box office predictions to make for this blogger. There’s always Oscar predictions as the race takes shape.
And there is always, always, always the love that I hold for the subject I choose to write about and the joy that those making and writing about movies give to us, the audience. Whether it’s Bill Murray in front of the camera or Roger Ebert at that typewriter.
Mr. Ebert might be gone, but his words are here for us to enjoy forever. In the last year, we’ve been saddened to learn that Robin Williams and Philip Seymour Hoffman are gone. Yet their work will live on for us to savor – from Truman Capote to a British nanny to a cult religious leader to a therapist telling his pupil that “It’s not his fault” to the Big Lebowski’s socially awkward assistant to that inspirational teacher telling his students to “Seize The Day!” For us movie lovers, the medium gives us these special moments and performances and memories to seize on those days when we might need it.
And I’ll close by saying that it’s a real pleasure to write about it.
After five posts predicting the other major categories for this year’s Academy Awards, we’ve arrived at the biggest race of all: Best Picture. Here are the nine nominees:
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
As I see it, there are three films that stand a realistic chance at taking home the gold. Those three do not include Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, or The Wolf of Wall Street.
That leaves us with American Hustle, Gravity, and 12 Years a Slave.
While I have predicted that Alfonso Cuaron will win Best Director for Gravity (a pick I’m highly confident in), the chances of his picture winning are much more slim. While it was a hit with audiences and critics – the sci-fi epic has won no major precursors to speak of. Its recognition should come to Cuaron and in various technical categories.
American Hustle certainly has plenty of fans and director David O. Russell has been on a heckuva hot streak. The pic stands the second best chance of being the victor.
However, the fact is that Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave is undeniably the frontrunner and it has been for awhile. Slave has won a slew of precursors, including the Golden Globe for Best Drama. From an odds perspective, I’d put it this way:
12 Years a Slave: 75% chance of winning
American Hustle: 20% chance of winning
Gravity: 5% chance of winning
Predicted Winner: 12 Years a Slave
For a full breakdown of my picks, here ya go:
Picture – 12 Years a Slave
Director – Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Actor – Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Actress – Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Supporting Actor – Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Supporting Actress – Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Next weekend – I’ll have my final predictions in all categories before the big show. If any of the six major ones change in the next week (unlikely), I’ll act accordingly. Until then!
We’re just over a week away from the Oscars and over the last few days, I’ve been posting my predictions for winners in the six major races. So far the acting categories are covered with the following picks:
Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
This brings us to Best Director. Let’s recap the nominees:
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
We begin with getting Payne and Scorsese out of the way. They’re highly unlikely to be the victors. That leaves us with Cuaron, McQueen, and Russell.
We’ll get to my Best Picture prediction soon enough on the blog, but many see 12 Years a Slave as the frontrunner for the race. That would mean McQueen wins, right? Not necessarily.
David O. Russell has truly been on a roll lately with The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, and now American Hustle. Academy voters may want to reward his incredible hot streak – especially if Hustle performs well in other categories and has a better than expected evening.
Having said that, the momentum is undeniably with Cuaron. While Gravity may not win the biggest prize, critics and audiences marveled at the director’s technical achievements here. This could be somewhat of a repeat of 2012 when Argo won Picture, but Director went to Ang Lee for his amazing job with Life of Pi.
Cuaron has won basically all the precursors and this seems like a perfect spot for Gravity to win a high-profile category.
Best Director Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Best Picture is up next and it’ll be up this weekend. I’ll have my final predictions in all categories a couple of days before the show. Stay tuned!