Tag: The Transporter: Refueled

Box Office Predictions: September 11-13

As the fall box office season gets underway, three new titles open Friday: romantic thriller The Perfect Guy, low budget M. Night Shyamalan horror pic The Visit and faith based drama 90 Minutes in Heaven. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions post on each here:

The Perfect Guy Box Office Prediction

The Visit Box Office Prediction

90 Minutes in Heaven Box Office Prediction

I believe the new releases stand a decent chance at filling the top three slots this weekend. As I see it, The Perfect Guy should take the top spot unless The Visit over performs. I could also see The Visit not doing very well and it remains a large question mark. On a far less number of screens than its competitors, 90 Minutes should have a sturdy start but might be a little hindered by the continuing solid performance of the similarly themed War Room.

Speaking of War Room, I believe it and A Walk in the Woods should both experience smallish declines (par for the course on the post Labor Day weekend) and round out the top five. And with that, my predictions:

  1. The Perfect Guy

Predicted Gross: $21.9 million

2. The Visit

Predicted Gross: $17 million

3. 90 Minutes in Heaven

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. War Room

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 33%)

5. A Walk in the Woods

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

Box Office Results (September 4-7)

As expected, the Labor Day weekend was sluggish but there were surprises to be had… particularly in the top two spots. War Room expanded on its screen count and therefore its numbers and unexpectedly took the #1 spot away from three peat champ Straight Outta Compton. Over the four day holiday, it took in $13.3 million to bring its two week tally to $28 million. I only had it earning $7.7 million. Oops

The other pic doing better than expected business: the Robert Redford travel flick A Walk in the Woods which took second with $10.9 million over the weekend and $12.8 million since its Wednesday bow. It greatly surpassed my respective projections of just $4.3 and $5.8 million. Oops again.

Dipping to third was Straight Outta Compton with $10.8 million, under my $14.3 million estimate. Its terrific four week total stands at $149 million. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation was fourth with $9.4 million (I said $9.9M) for an overall $182 million total.

The Transporter: Refueled opened with a whimper at $9 million, a bit under my $10.2M prediction. The Owen Wilson thriller No Escape was sixth with $7 million (just ahead of my $6M estimate) for a $20M take.

And that’s all for now! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 4-7

Unlike most holiday weekend frames, Labor Day isn’t exactly known for studios bringing out heavy hitters and that remains unchanged in 2015. There are two new releases finding their way to theaters over the long weekend: franchise reboot The Transporter: Refueled and Robert Redford led A Walk in the Woods (which opens Wednesday). You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/28/the-transporter-refueled-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/29/a-walk-in-the-woods-box-office-prediction/

I don’t expect much from either. While Transporter has a reasonable shot at debuting #1, a lot of summer holdovers end up doing more Labor Day weekend than they did the previous weekend. If that holds true for Straight Outta Compton, as I believe it will, that means it will be #1 for the fourth straight weekend. As I see it, Transporter could be second or third depending on how well Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation increases its gross. The Christian themed War Room got off to a much better than anticipated start, but I actually see it losing close to a third of its opening weekend audience while No Escape (which also debuted above expectations) may lose about a fourth. That would leave Mr. Redford and his Woods in sixth place.

And with that, my predictions for the four day Labor Day weekend top six:

  1. Straight Outta Compton

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing an increase of 9%)

2. The Transporter: Refueled

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing an increase of 23%)

4. War Room

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. No Escape

Predicted Gross: $6 million

6. A Walk in the Woods

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (Friday to Monday), $5.8 million (Wednesday to Monday)

Box Office Results (August 28-30)

The NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton made it a three peat this weekend with $13.1 million (just above my $12.5M estimate) to bring its impressive total to $134 million. While I pretty much got that right, I stumbled when it came to predicting the weekend’s newcomers.

The aforementioned War Room easily beat expectations with a terrific $11.3 million for second place (surging above my $5.7M prediction). Considering its reported $3M budget, this is a wonderful beginning for it.

Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation took third with $8.1 million, just beyond my $7.4M projection for a total of $170M.

Just behind Mission was the Owen Wilson/Pierce Brosnan thriller No Escape which also made $8.1 million over the traditional weekend and $10.1 million since its Wednesday debut. This outshines my respective predictions of $4.7M and $6.3M and is a better start than most anticipated.

Rounding out the top five was Sinister 2 in its sophomore frame with $4.6 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five and its two week total is an unimpressive $18M.

Where I really went wrong was with the Zac Efron flick We Are Your Friends, which had an absolutely putrid $1.7 million start for only 13th place. I had it second with $10.9M… oops! Clearly audiences had zero interest in Friends and it managed only an embarrassing $770 per screen average.

And that’s all for now, friends! Until next time…

The Transporter Refueled Box Office Prediction

On Labor Day weekend, the fourth entry in the Transporter franchise hits theaters nearly seven years after the third edition with The Transporter: Refueled. A lot has changed in the meantime. Most notably, the series star Jason Statham is nowhere to be found and English rapper/actor Ed Skrein is the leading man. Cowritten by Luc Besson, who’s scripted the other films, Refueled will attempt to revitalize a franchise that had begun losing steam with part three.

It won’t be an easy task. The original pic in 2002 debuted to $9 million with an eventual $25 million domestic take. 2005’s Transporter 2 marked the highs of the series with a $16 million premiere and $43 million eventual gross. 2008’s Transporter 3 made $12 million out of the gate with a $31 million haul. The absence of Statham and long wait between pics leads me to believe The Transporter: Refueled may struggle to reach double digits. I think it’ll just manage it, if only due to the lack of product currently in the marketplace.

The Transporter: Refueled opening weekend prediction: $10.2 million (Friday to Monday for Labor Day weekend)

For my A Walk in the Woods prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/29/a-walk-in-the-woods-box-office-prediction/