The highly unpredictable Gotham Awards released nominations today for their 2023 best. And, as expected, it was… unpredictable. There was added intrigue because the organization (dedicated to independent film) dropped their “low” budget requirements (traditionally $35 million or under) to qualify for inclusion. However, likely Oscar heavy hitters such as Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and The Color Purple took themselves out of contention.
That was not the case with Barbie, but it managed just one nomination in Outstanding Supporting Performance for Ryan Gosling. His costar from The Notebook Rachel McAdams will compete against him for her work in Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. Last year, the Gothams dropped their gender divisions with ten nominees in the lead and supporting derbies. We’ll cover those momentarily.
We start with Best Feature which showcases five pictures. From 2014-16, the Gotham recipient matched the Academy’s BP with Birdman, Spotlight, and Moonlight. The same occurred in 2020 with Nomadland and last year with Everything Everywhere All at Once. In other recent years, there’s been at least one nominee that got into BP at the big dance, including The Favourite, Marriage Story, and Tár. The only recent exception in the last decade was in 2021.
This year’s contenders are Passages, Past Lives, Reality, Showing Up, and A Thousand and One. Only Past Lives seems poised to make BP at the Oscars and even that isn’t a foregone conclusion.
Andrew Haigh’s romantic ghost tale All of Us Strangers actually led all nominees with four: Screenplay, International Feature, Outstanding Lead Performance (Andrew Scott), and Outstanding Supporting Performance (Claire Foy).
Last year, four of the ten leading performance nominees managed Oscar nominations. That includes the two winners (Brendan Fraser for The Whale and Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once) as well as Paul Mescal (Aftersun) and Cate Blanchett (Tár). Danielle Deadwyler (Till), who was snubbed by the Academy, won.
In addition to the aforementioned Scott for Strangers, the other nine up for lead in 2023 are Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin), Lily Gladstone (The Unknown Country), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Franz Rogowski (Passages), Babetida Sadjo (Our Father, the Devil), Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla), Teyana Taylor (A Thousand and One), Michelle Williams (Showing Up), and Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). I would argue that unlike Fraser, Yeoh, and Blanchett from the previous ceremony, none of the nominees here are guaranteed Oscar spots. Those with the best chance? Probably Lee, Wright, Spaeny, and Scott. Gladstone should get in, but it will be for Killers of the Flower Moon and not Country.
The supporting derby in 2022 yielded three eventual nominees including Supporting Actor victor Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) as well as Hong Chau (The Whale) and Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway). Quan also took the Gotham.
Our ten supporting players for this year’s ceremony are the aforementioned Foy (All of Us Strangers) and McAdams (Margaret) and Gosling (Barbie). Then there’s Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), Jamie Foxx (They Cloned Tyrone), Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), Charles Melton (May December), and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers). With the exception of Foxx, I would say all nine have solid to at least feasible shots at making the Oscar cut (especially Gosling and Randolph).
How will it all shake out? Don’t look for the Gothams to provide too much guidance. Yet today’s announcement at least gives us a peek at movies and performers who could keep or gain momentum. Movies like The Holdovers, Poor Things, Anatomy of a Fall, and more that came up short today? They shouldn’t worry too much.
My mid-October Oscar predictions has Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things leading the nominations tally with an impressive 12 apiece!
Poor Things rises partly because I’m putting Willem Dafoe back in my projected Supporting Actor quintet alongside his costar Mark Ruffalo. In Supporting Actress, I’ve elevated Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) over Viola Davis (Air). This is Cruz’s first appearance in my top five.
Margot Robbie (Barbie) returns to my Actress five with Greta Lee (Past Lives) on the outside looking in. You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+3)
6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Past Lives (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Air (PR: 12) (+1)
12. American Fiction (PR: 1) (-1)
13. Napoleon (PR: 13) (E)
14. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Origin
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)
7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Barry Koeghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
America Ferrera, Barbie
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (-1)
7. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon
Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fair Play (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. American Fiction (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)
10. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Promised Land (PR: 10) (+4)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Settlers (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Peasants
The Delinquents
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
10. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ferrari (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-4)
10. The Creator (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Creator (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Barbie (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Killers of the Flower Moon
That gives us a tally for these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
10 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Color Purple
5 Nominations
The Holdovers, Maestro, The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Past Lives
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon
2 Nominations
Elemental, Ferrari, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Wish
1 Nominations
20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge
Germany has picked The Teachers’ Lounge as its hopeful for Best International Feature Film as they try to keep their impressive track record running in this 21st century. The dramatic thriller from Ilker Çatak premiered earlier this year at the Berlin Film Festival and has continued playing the festival circuit. Leonie Benesch stars in a role earning acclaim and the pic itself stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes based on 25 reviews.
As mentioned, the submitting nation has seen its share of successes in recent years. Just last year, All Quiet on the Western Front won the IFF derby. Others victors this century are Nowhere in Africa (2002) and The Lives of Others (2006). Six others selections have made the contending quintet.
At this early juncture, England’s The Zone of Interest and France’s The Taste of Things are probably the frontrunners for the statue. Then there’s three spots available for a host of feasible nominees. Lounge is certainly one of them and I wouldn’t underestimate it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The September triumvirate of high profile festivals (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) is in the rearview mirror. The New York Film Festival is happening now though there’s not a huge number of pictures that didn’t already premiere at earlier fests. One that did – Garth Davis’s Foe – proved to be an awards bust. With a 21% Rotten Tomatoes score, you can assume this is the last time it will be mentioned in these prediction posts.
Truth be told, there are just a few Oscar bait titles left to screen. They include The Color Purple, Napoleon, Disney’s Wish, The Iron Claw, and Wonka (in some tech races).
I thought this might be an opportune time to tell you how my 2022 predictions from this same time of year stood up. Last year, when I did forecasts for the 95th Academy Awards on October 5th, it yielded an impressive 8 of the eventual nominees (winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking). The other two nominees (Avatar: The Way of Water and Elvis) were both listed in other possibilities.
For Best Director, I correctly called three of the five (winners the Daniels for Everything Everywhere, Todd Field for Tár, Steven Spielberg with The Fabelmans). Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Rüben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) were identified as other possibilities.
The #3 also applied to Actress as I named winner Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everything) along with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans). Ana de Armas (Blonde) was tagged under other possibilities while Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) was not yet on the radar screen. Same goes for Best Actor (3) where I had winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Bill Nighy (Living) in othjer possibilities. Paul Mescal (Aftersun) was outside of the top ten.
In the supporting derbies, my 2022 early October projections gave you only two of the eventual five in Supporting Actress with Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Hong Chau (The Whale). Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere) was an other possibility. The winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere) was not yet in my listed ten nor was fellow nominee Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever). For Supporting Actor, I correctly had three with winner Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) and Banshees costars Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) was in other possibilities while Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) had not entered my mix.
Whew. For those keeping score, that means I predicted 22 of the 35 movies, directors, and actors in those six races at this same juncture in 2022.
My first October projections contain a few alterations from my final September write-up. As much as I don’t like taking Toronto’s People’s Choice Award victor American Fiction out of my BP lineup, I’m doing so with The Zone of Interest back in that list. On the same note, Zone‘s filmmaker Jonathan Glazer returns to my directing quintet with Celine Song (Past Lives) on the outside looking in.
Greta Lee (Past Lives) jumps back in Actress with Margot Robbie (Barbie) omitted. However, Lee’s costar John Magaro is dropped from Supporting Actor in favor of Charles Melton (May December).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)
15. Origin (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)
7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, Amerian Fiction (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Teo Yoo, Past Lives
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (E)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4 ) (E)
5. Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. About Dry Grasses (PR: 5) (-1)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Settlers (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Promised Land (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Teachers’ Lounge
Io capitano
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“High Life” from Flora and Son
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Napoleon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ferrari (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The Killer
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Creator (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (-2)
That means I’m projecting these movies will garner these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
10 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
6 Nominations
The Color Purple, Maestro
5 Nominations
Past Lives
4 Nominations
The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall
2 Nominations
Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, The Killer, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol
To say that September has given us plenty to think about when it comes to Oscar speculation is a massive understatement. Of course, it’s always been this way with the many titles premiering at the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals. Those fests cause the stock of certain pictures and performers to rise and fall.
In the past week alone, there’s been lots of big news. It was announced that Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) will vie for lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress (where she was seen as a strong favorite to win).
Then the nation of France shocked us by announcing that they’re selecting The Taste of Things to compete in International Feature Film instead of Anatomy of a Fall, which was also looked at as a frontrunner.
Finally, it was confirmed that Bob Marley: One Love will not be receiving a limited December release. Instead it’ll drop in February 2024 so we can officially write off Kingsley Ben-Adir’s chances for this year.
For now, I’m still predicting that Anatomy will materialize in the Picture, Actress, and Original Screenplay races. I am dropping its director Justine Triet from my projected five.
As for the Gladstone news, I’m slotting her right behind Emma Stone (Poor Things) in the lead derby. Gladstone’s disappearance in Supporting Actress causes Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) to become #1 (I’d had Gladstone in first for months prior to the surprising announcement). Viola Davis (Air) is back in my five due to the developments.
Readers of the blog know that over the past few days, I did individual posts updating Picture, Director, and the four acting races. I also whittled BP down from 25 to 15 possibilities and the others from 15 to 10.
With Barbie‘s announced move to Original Screenplay, it moves to #1 over Past Lives. In Adapted, festival love propels Poor Things to the top spot over Killers of the Flower Moon.
A noteworthy Actress alteration besides Gladstone joining the quintet is Barbie herself (Margot Robbie) making the cut. Greta Lee (Past Lives) and Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) are now on the outside looking in.
Here’s where I have it shaking out in my first full predictions in nearly a month!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)
6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-3)
10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (E)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. Origin (PR: 13) (E)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)
15. Napoleon (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (E)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Anthony Hopkins, One Life
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon – moved to Best Actress
Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-2)
5. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)
9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted Screenplay
2. Past Lives (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Air (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 3) (-3)
7. May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Saltburn (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Fair Play (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Rustin
Napoleon
The Boy and the Heron
The Book of Clarence
The Iron Claw
A Thousand and One
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predited Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (-1)
4. American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 15) (+10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hit Man (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Origin (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Barbie – moved to Original Screenplay
One Life
BlackBerry
Next Goal Wins
The Nickel Boys
Dumb Money
The Killer
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+2)
5. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Society of the Snow (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Delinquents (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Promised Land (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Il capitano (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Anatomy of a Fall
Monster
The Boy and the Heron
La Chimera
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Killer (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Zone of Interest
One Life
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (E)
8. “High Life” from Flora and Son (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10 (+1)
10. “Dance The Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Steal the Show” from Elemental
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)
7. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Zone of Interest
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Ferrari (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Napoleon (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Creator
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Creator (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Rebel Moon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
The Little Mermaid
And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Poor Things
10 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Color Purple
6 Nominations
Maestro
4 Nominations
The Holdovers
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall
2 Nominations
Air, American Fiction, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Wish, The Zone of Interest
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Orlando, My Political Biography, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rebel Moon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, 20 Days in Mariupol
For the second time this week, there’s been an Oscar bombshell that will undoubtedly change the projections of prognosticators like yours truly. On Tuesday, it was the announcement that Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) will compete in Actress instead of Supporting Actress (where she was widely expected to compete in and probably win).
Now there’s a french twist in the International Feature Film race. As you may know, countries can only submit one picture for consideration in that competition. France was widely expected to put forth Justine Triet’s acclaimed Anatomy of a Fall, the courtroom drama that received the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival. Fall, along with the U.K.’s The Zone of Interest from Jonathan Glazer, were seen as the two favorites to win the category. It was also seen as a major threat for nominations in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Sandra Hüller), and Original Screenplay.
Well, the French have a taste for the unexpected as it was announced today that they’re submitting Tran Anh Hung’s The Taste of Things instead. The historical romance starring Juliette Binoche also premiered at Cannes. While it nabbed a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating, it was seen as lagging behind Fall in terms of submission possibilities. Now it has positioned itself as Zone‘s main competitor for the IFF statue. And one could argue it increases the chances for Binoche to get an Actress nom (even though that derby is looking awfully crowded).
So where does that leave Fall? It could still get into Best Picture, but the odds could be longer. Same for all the other races mentioned above. This isn’t the first time France has surprised us in recent times. In 2019, they chose Les Miserables over Portrait of a Lady on Fire. While Miserables made the eventual quintet, it was seen as a weaker pick. To be fair – nothing was going to beat Parasite that year.
Then there’s 2007. France went with Persepolis as the selection and it didn’t get nominated. If they’d gone with The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, they might’ve had a winner on their hands. After all, it managed four overall mentions in Director (Julian Schnabel), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Film Editing. Anatomy will hope to follow Bell‘s model and maybe even dive into BP. It might face a steep curve based on its home country’s strategy. You can check how it alters my predictions (and it will) when I update them this weekend!
You could correctly call this Oscar Predictions post the calm before the festival storm as Venice kicks off this week with Telluride and Toronto right behind it. Yet a major development occurred last week as the sands of time are moving slower for Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two. The epic sequel was pushed back to the spring of 2024.
How big of an impact does that make for my forecasts? A heavy one as I had it achieving 11 nominations. In my previous projections on August 16th, that was second only to Oppenheimer‘s 12. I had it ranked 1st in Makeup and Hairstyling and Visual Effects, 2nd in Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound, 3rd in Picture and Director, and 4th for Adapted Screenplay.
In fact, a victory for Dune in Visual Effects was probably the easiest race to call this early (its predecessor won too). Now it makes the VE contest quite interesting. Oppenheimer could take the prize and mark Christopher Nolan’s second win in a row in the category after 2020’s Tenet. It opens the door wider for The Creator from Gareth Edwards. And there’s now more of a shot for the MCU to nab its first statue in VE for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 in particular.
I plan to do my next update on Labor Day (September 4th). By that time, we will have reviews and buzz from Venice premieres including Ferrari, Maestro, Poor Things, Priscilla, and The Killer. We’ll also have the word out for whatever pics debut at Telluride (to be announced Thursday).
Right after that update on the 4th, the rest of the Venice titles and a slew of Toronto movies will be unveiled. They include The Holdovers, Rustin, Dumb Money, Next Goal Wins, Society of the Snow, Origin, Pain Hustlers,Nyad, Lee, American Fiction, The Burial, and Hit Man.
In other words… it’s about to get really interesting, folks! I’m also dropping some titles that I’m just not sure are actually releasing in 2023 like The Piano Lesson. Obviously, it will re-enter the dance if there’s confirmation on a release this year. Questions persist about other ones. Is Long Day’s Journey Into Night happening before December 31st? Is Shirley or Freud’s Last Session? Will other currently scheduled releases pull a Dune? The answer is likely affirmative.
With the Dune shift, Air moves back into my BP 10 and Bradley Cooper (Maestro) is in Director over Denis Villeneuve. In non-Dune related shifts, Sandra Huller is now #1 in Actress over The Color Purple‘s Fantasia Barrino. Charles Melton from May December hits my Supporting Actor five over Willem Dafoe (Poor Things).
You can read all the movement below and my next update with the Venice buzz arrives in a week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Maestro (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)
10. Air (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Saltburn (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)
15. Ferrari (PR: 16) (+1)
16. The Killer (PR: 17) (+1)
17. May December (PR: 20) (+3)
18. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (E)
19. One Life (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 19) (-1)
21. Rustin (PR: 24) (+3)
22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (E)
23. Dumb Money (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Book of Clarence (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
The Piano Lesson
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)
7. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)
15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 10) (E)
11. Caille Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (E)
12. Aunjanue Ellis, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren, Golda
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (E)
12. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (-1)
14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (E)
11. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: 11) (E)
12. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Niecy Nash-Betts, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Air (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. May December (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
11. Napoleon (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)
8. One Life (PR: 9) (+1)
9. BlackBerry (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (E)
13. Dumb Money (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Killer (PR: 15) (+1)
15. All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
The Piano Lesson
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Taste of Things (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Monster (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
9. La Chimera (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
El Conde
The Delinquents
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: 9) (E)
10. They Shot the Piano Player (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)
3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)
4. Every Body (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 6) (E)
7. Orlando, A Political Biography (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wild Life (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Deepest Breath (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Black Ice
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Chevalier (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (E)
8. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Air (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Killer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ferrari (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Barbie (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Golda (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked
10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Wonka
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Elemental (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Killer (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)
10. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Poor Things
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)
4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities
6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Napoleon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ferrari (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Barbie
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Creator (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Rebel Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wonka (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Little Mermaid (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Killers of the Flower Moon
Blue Beetle
That means I’m predicting the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
8 Nominations
Barbie, Maestro
7 Nominations
The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things
5 Nominations
Napoleon
4 Nominations
Air, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, The Killer, May December,Monster, Nimona, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol
It’s looking like Netflix is going all in on Bradley Cooper’s Maestro being their main contender for awards love in 2023. With its first trailer out this week, the biopic is the biggest riser in Best Picture. Additionally, Carey Mulligan joins the Best Actress field with Annette Bening (Nyad) falling out.
Supporting Actress also sees a change as Viola Davis (Air) is back in over Rosamud Pike for Saltburn. It’s not a good update for Emerald Fennell’s sophomore feature as it also drops from BP with Poor Things returning.
In another significant development, Cillian Murphy’s work in Oppenheimer rises to #1 in Best Actor for the first time over Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon).
You can expect one more update at month’s end before the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto festivals arrive and dramatically reshape the race. That’s where we’ll catch our first glimpses and see first reactions to many contenders. They include Maestro, Poor Things, Rustin, The Killer, Ferrari, Priscilla, El Conde, Dumb Money, Nyad, Lee, One Life, Next Goal Wins, and more.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maestro (PR: 8) (+3)
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Saltburn (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)
14. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Ferrari (PR: 18) (+2)
17. The Killer (PR: 16) (-1)
18. Asteroid City (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+1)
20. May December (PR: 17) (-3)
21. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Piano Lesson (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Rustin (PR: 21) (-3)
25. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bob Marley: One Love
Priscilla
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (E)
13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)
15. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wes Anderson, Asteroid City
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (E)
13. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)
15. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Emily Blunt, Pain Hustlers
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (E)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (E)
14. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Helena Bonham Carter, One Life (PR: 13) (+2)
1.2 Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12 ) (-1)
14. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Audra McDonald, Rustin
America Ferrera, Barbie
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)
8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Glynn Turman, Rustin
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Saltburn (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Rustin (PR: 10 (E)
11. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 15) (+3)
13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 11) (-2)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bob Marley: One Love
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-3)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. BlackBerry (PR: 10) (+2)
9. One Life (PR: 14) (+5)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Killer (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Ferrari
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)
4. Monster (PR: 4) (E)
5.The Taste of Things (formerly The Pot-Au-Feu) (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fallen Leaves (PR: 8) (+1)
8. El Conde (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Delinquents (PR: 9) (E)
10. La Chimera (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)
3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Every Body (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wild Life (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Black Ice (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Kokomo City
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Poor Things (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Chevalier (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Air (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ferrari (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Killer (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Glaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Priscilla (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Golda (PR: 8) (E)
9. Beau is Afraid (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Color Purple
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Napoleon
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+5)
5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)
7. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Maestro (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Zone of Interest
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Creator (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wonka (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blue Beetle (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Barbie
That means I’m projecting these numbers of nominations for these films:
12 Nominations
Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
7 Nominations
Barbie, Maestro
6 Nominations
The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things
5 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon
2 Nominations
Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, Ferrari, May December, Monster, Priscilla, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
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