As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our third performer in Best Actress and that’s Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall. Let’s get to it!
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
None
The Case for Sandra Hüller:
The German actress earned raves for her turn in Justine Triet’s Cannes Palme d’Or winning French legal drama which earned five overall nods including Picture. She also added to her impressive 2023 with her role in BP nominated The Zone of Interest (where she probably came up just short in Supporting Actress). The Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA put her in their mix and she’s received a few regional critics prizes.
The Case Against Sandra Hüller:
Hüller has yet to win a key precursor as those have gone to Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). She missed SAG. France dropped the ball by selecting The Taste of Things as their International Feature Film contender instead of Anatomy. If they had, it might have taken that race (over The Zone of Interest) and those coattails could’ve helped.
The Verdict:
Stone or Gladstone are the favorites. However, if an upset did occur, Hüller could pull it off and that’s especially true if she wins the BAFTA. I wouldn’t bet on it, but I wouldn’t totally dismiss the possibility.
My Case Of posts will continue with Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered nine of the BP nominees and they are linked at the bottom. This category’s posts conclude with Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest. Write-ups for the others are on deck!
The Case for The Zone of Interest:
After acclaimed features including Birth and Under the Skin, Glazer enters the awards zone with Interest. The German historical drama managed five nominations including Director, Adapted Screenplay, International Feature Film, and Sound. It’s had an impressive run at precursor nominations including the Globes in Drama and the PGA ten.
The Case Against The Zone of Interest:
Anatomy of a Fall has outshined it in victories with foreign races, including at the Globes and Critics Choice. It was definitely a question mark whether this would even make the cut at BP.
The Verdict:
Due to France choosing to submit The Taste of Things instead of Anatomy, Interest is the heavy favorite to take International Feature Film. That should be the only statue it picks up during the ceremony.
My Case Of posts will continue with Annette Bening in Nyad…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction kicked it off and now we arrive at Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall. If you missed my facts and opinions about Fiction, you can find it here:
The awards buzz for the French legal drama began when it won the Palme d’Or at Cannes last summer and it never let up. Fall ended up nabbing 5 overall Academy noms – the others being Triet in Director, Sandra Hüller in Actress, Original Screenplay, and Film Editing. In addition to the Cannes love, it took the foreign feature prize at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards.
The Case Against Anatomy of a Fall:
Due to a French blunder, it did not receive six nominations. That’s because the nation submitted The Taste of Things as their entry for International Feature Film. Oscar voters didn’t put Taste in their contending quintet. Had they gone with Anatomy, it would be the frontrunner or at worst co-frontrunner for that race over The Zone of Interest. That unforced error caused many to wonder whether this would even make the top ten in BP. Another obvious reason against: Parasite is the sole international title to take BP.
The Verdict:
Anatomy has a shot at Original Screenplay (it impressively took Screenplay at the Globes). As covered, it had a terrific shot at being the IFF recipient. It will not win Best Picture.
Starting about 365 days ago with the Sundance Film Festival, my speculation of the nominees for the 96th Academy Awards kicked off. As it does each year, dozens of predictions posts followed.
And now… after clues from the Golden Globes, SAG, PGA, DGA, Critics Choice, BAFTA, regional critics groups, and good ole fashioned gut feelings, my FINAL projections are here! They will be out Tuesday and I’ll have a recap up that evening.
The speculations ends here. With each race, I’m giving you my selections along with a runner-up and a second runner-up. Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
1st Alternate: The Color Purple
2nd Alternate: Saltburn
Best Director
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
1st Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
2nd Alternate: Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
1st Alternate: Greta Lee, Past Lives
2nd Alternate: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
1st Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
2nd Alternate: Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
Best Cinematography
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
1st Alternate: Barbie
2nd Alternate: El Conde
Best Costume Design
Barbie
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
1st Alternate: Napoleon
2nd Alternate: Maestro
Best Film Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
1st Alternate: Poor Things
2nd Alternate: Barbie
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Golda
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
1st Alternate: Society of the Snow
2nd Alternate: The Last Voyage of the Demeter
Best Original Score
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
The Zone of Interest
1st Alternate: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2nd Alternate: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Best Original Song
“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“Road to Freedom” from Rustin
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon
“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
1st Alternate: “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony
2nd Alternate: “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives
Best Production Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
1st Alternate: The Zone of Interest
2nd Alternate: Asteroid City
Best Sound
Ferrari
Maestro
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
1st Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon
2nd Alternate: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
Best Visual Effects
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1st Alternate: Poor Things
2nd Alternate: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
And that means I’m predicting these movies generate these numbers in terms of nominations:
13 Nominations
Oppenheimer
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
10 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
Maestro, The Zone of Interest
5 Nominations
The Holdovers
4 Nominations
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall
2 Nominations
The Color Purple, Ferrari, Napoleon, Past Lives, Rustin, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Saltburn, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Suzume, Tótem
Since my last predictions on January 6th, we’ve had a whole lotta activity with Oscar precursors. The Golden Globes aired and bestowed their Best Drama to Oppenheimer and Musical/Comedy to Poor Things (over Barbie). SAG released their nominees with some surprising omissions including Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things), and Charles Melton (May December).
And in perhaps the most unexpected development of all, the PGA Picture nominees included two international features with Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. PGA typically doesn’t honor foreign pics. The 10 movies they ended up nominating have been my Oscar BP ten for weeks. It’s a little scary to predict that the Academy and PGA will match 10/10… but here we are for now.
In Best Actor, Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) each rise a spot to 1-2 with Bradley Cooper (Maestro) sliding from first to third. In Supporting Actor, Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) enters the predicted quintet with Charles Melton (May December) on the outs.
An important note: this is my penultimate forecast for the 96th Academy Awards. My plan is to have final predictions up on Friday or Saturday next week before nomination morning on January 23rd.
Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Barbie (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)
7. American Fiction (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Color Purple (PR: 11) (E)
12. May December (PR: 12) (E)
13. Air (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)
15. Saltburn (PR: 13) (-2)
Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (-1)
Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (E)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)
Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)
7. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)
9. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)
Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)
9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)
Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)
4. May December (PR: 4) (E)
5. Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Iron Claw (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fair Play (PR: 10) (E)
Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. American Fiction (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)
7. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (E)
International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Society of the Snow (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)
8. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Four Daughters (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Io Capitano (PR: 8) (-2)
Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
5. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Eternal Memory (PR: 5) (-1)
7. American Symphony (PR: 4) (-3)
8. A Still Small Voice (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)
10. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (-2)
Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR:3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)
5. El Conde (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Saltburn (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ferrari
Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wonka (PR: 8) (E)
9. Priscilla (PR: 9) (E)
10. Chevalier (PR: 10) (E)
Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Air (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Past Lives (PR: 10) (E)
Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Golda (PR: 4) (E)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beau Is Afraid (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-1)
Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)
7. Elemental (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (E)
10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” from Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (-3)
Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Napoleon (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)
Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Ferrari (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Barbie (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)
Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Creator (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-2)
That means I’m forecasting these numbers of nominations for these films:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
5 Nominations
The Holdovers,Maestro
4 Nominations
American Fiction, Past Lives
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall
2 Nominations
The Color Purple, May December, Napoleon, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, El Conde, Elemental, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
On Sunday evening, the 29th Critics Choice Awards air on the CW with Chelsea Handler handling hosting duties. In the busiest Oscar precursor week of the year, it’ll cap off with this ceremony. Critics Choice has a mixed history matching with the Academy. Five of the last ten CC Picture victors won BP at the Oscars. For Actress – it’s 6 out of 10. Actor is 7 out of 10. Supporting Actress is 8 out of 10 and Supporting Actor is the most at 9 for 10.
Let’s go through each competition and I’ll give a winner and runner-up prediction. You can expect a recap of the show Sunday evening!
Picture
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, Saltburn
PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Barbie
Director
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
PREDICTED WINNER: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Actress
Nominees: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
PREDICTED WINNER: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Actor
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
PREDICTED WINNER: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Holdovers), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Julianne Moore (May December), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
PREDICTED WINNER: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Charles Melton (May December), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
PREDICTED WINNER: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Air, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: The Holdovers
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
PREDICTED WINNER: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Acting Ensemble
Nominees: Air, Barbie, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer
Young Actor/Actress
Nominees: Abby Ryder Fortson (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret), Ariana Greenblatt (Barbie), Calah Lane (Wonka), Milo Machado Graner (Anatomy of a Fall), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers), Madeleine Yuna Voyles (The Creator)
PREDICTED WINNER: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Milo Machado Graner, Anatomy of a Fall
Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Godzilla Minus One, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Taste of Things, The Zone of Interest
PREDICTED WINNER: Anatomy of a Fall
Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest
Comedy
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Bottoms, The Holdovers, No Hard Feelings, Poor Things
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: American Fiction
Animated Feature
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Wish
PREDICTED WINNER: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron
Cinematography
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn
PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Costume Design
Nominees: Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Poor Things, Wonka
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Editing
Nominees: Air, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Hair and Makeup
Nominees: Barbie, The Color Purple, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Priscilla
PREDICTED WINNER: Maestro
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Production Design
Nominees: Asteroid City, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Score
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Song
Nominees: “Dance the Night” from Barbie, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie, “Road to Freedom” from Rustin, “This Wish” from Wish, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
PREDICTED WINNER: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
Visual Effects
Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
PREDICTED WINNER: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer
That works out to the following wins for these movies:
6 Wins
Barbie, Oppenheimer
3 Wins
The Holdovers
2 Wins
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Win
Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Poor Things
We are 17 days out from Oscar nominations being revealed and a flurry of activity is ahead of us. The Golden Globes air Sunday evening and SAG nods come out on Wednesday. The BAFTA long lists were unveiled yesterday and critics groups continue to bestow their honors. Those events (specifically the Globes and SAG) could alter my thinking in the very near future.
As for these first forecasts of the fresh new year, the big news of the past few days was the announcement that Barbie will contend in Adapted Screenplay and not Original. That means I’ve shifted Greta Gerwig’s blockbuster from #1 in its former race to the top spot in its new one. That drops All of Us Strangers from the adapted field and allows Air to enter the high five for original.
You won’t find a whole lot of changes in the main categories. I will note that Barbie is now sitting in the #2 slot in BP with Killers of the Flower Moon sliding to third. In Supporting Actress, the fifth position (which seems wide open) goes to Sandra Hüller in The Zone of Interest. That makes her a double nominee and puts my former pick of Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) on the outside looking in.
You can peruse all the movement below! Keep an eye on the blog this week for reaction to the Globes, SAG nods, and any other noteworthy activity.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: Even)
2. Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)
7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (E)
9. American Fiction (PR: 9) (E)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Color Purple (PR: 11) (E)
12. May December (PR: 12) (E)
13. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Air (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Society of the Snow
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)
7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
J.A. Bayona, Society of the Snow
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)
7. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (-4)
10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)
9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)
4. May December (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Air (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Iron Claw (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Barbie (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-2)
5. American Fiction (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Color Purple
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Society of the Snow (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Perfect Days (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)
8. Io Capitano (PR: 9) (+1)
9. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Four Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Godland
The Monk and the Gun
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
9. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Robot Dreams
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 1) (E)
2. Beyond Utopia (PR: 2) (E)
3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Symphony (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 7) (E)
8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)
10. A Still Small Voice (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barbie (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
El Conde
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wonka (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Chevalier (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Asteroid City
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Air (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Past Lives (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Golda (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 7) (E)
8. Beau is Afraid (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)
7. Elemental (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Barbie (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
American Fiction
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: A Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (+2)
8. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-4)
9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Dear Alien (Who Art In Heaven)” from Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Maestro (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ferrari (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Barbie (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Creator (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Napoleon (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 8) (-2)
That means I’m currently projecting these movies generate these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Oppenheimer, Poor Things
11 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
Maestro, The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers
3 Nominations
American Fiction, May December, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2 Nominations
American Symphony, The Color Purple, Napoleon, Society of the Snow
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rustin, Suzume, The Taste of Things
My final Oscar predictions for calendar year 2023 sees changes in Picture, Actress, and Actor. Anatomy of a Fall is back in the BP ten with The Color Purple falling out (despite its impressive box office bow on Christmas Day). That said – it’s a coin flip.
In Actress, I’ve elevated Greta Lee (Past Lives) once again at the expense of Margot Robbie’s Barbie. Same goes for Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) in Actor with Colman Domingo’s Rustin out of the projected contending quintet.
I’ll also note that 20 Days in Mariupol is now first in Documentary Feature over longtime first place forecasted Beyond Utopia.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)
9. American Fiction (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (-1)
12. May December (PR: 12) (E)
13. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Air (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (-3)
10. J.A. Bayona, Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)
7. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Air (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Taste of Things (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Society of the Snow (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Perfect Days (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)
8. Godland (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Io Capitano (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
7. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)
10. A Still Small Voice (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. El Conde (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Killer
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonka (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Chevalier (PR: 9) (E)
10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Priscilla
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Air (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Maestro (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Past Lives (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Killer
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Society of the Snow (PR: 4) (E)
5. Golda (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ferrari (PR: 9) (E)
10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 6) (-4)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Elemental (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Barbie (PR: 8) (-1)
10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” from Asteroid City
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Napoleon (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wonka (PR: 10) (-1)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ferrari (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)
5. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Killer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)
9. Barbie (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (E)
7. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (E)
10. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-2)
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:
13 Nominations
Oppenheimer
12 Nominations
Poor Things
11 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
9 Nominations
Barbie
6 Nominations
Maestro, The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
The Color Purple, The Holdovers
3 Nominations
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, May December, Past Lives, Society of the Snow
2 Nominations
The Boy and the Heron
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Air, All of Us Strangers, American Symphony, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Beyond Utopia, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge
The Oscar shortlists for the 96th Academy Awards were revealed today for seven feature length categories. We now know the ten finalists for Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects and the 15 hopefuls for Original Score, Original Song, International Feature Film, and Documentary Feature.
Per usual, there were surprises (though I’d say no complete jaw droppers). In Song, three films make up a third of the contenders (Hi Barbie!). Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One and Napoleon did about the best they could do while others like Nyad, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, and Past Lives missed key races where they were expected to contend for nominations.
Overall I went 63 for 90 in my forecasts. Let’s walk through each race with how I did and my new top tens for where I believe things stand in the various competitions!
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Shortlist: Beau is Afraid, Ferrari, Golda, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Last Voyage of the Demeter, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow
How I Did: 6/10
Perhaps the biggest unexpected snub was Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 missing here (its two predecessors were respectively nominated and shortlisted). I also had Barbie (Bye Barbie!), Nyad, and Priscilla in the mix. In their places are Beau Is Afraid, Ferrari, The Last Voyage of the Demeter (didn’t see that coming), and Society of the Snow. This is probably Maestro‘s race to lose.
NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS
1. Maestro (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beau Is Afraid (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Golda (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Barbie
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Nyad
The Color Purple
Wonka
Best Sound
Shortlist: Barbie, The Creator, Ferrari, The Killer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 8/10
Oppenheimer is clearly the leader. I felt like if Zone made the cut, its chances to make the final quintet are solid. The Creator and Mission: Impossible are listed over my picks of The Color Purple and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ferrari (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Killer (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Color Purple
Society of the Snow
Best Visual Effects
Shortlist: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Poor Things, Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
How I Did: 8/10
Mission and Napoleon get in over my picks of Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves and Killers of the Flower Moon. This race is, frankly, a crapshoot ever since we found out Oppenheimer wouldn’t contend. With the Guardians omission in Makeup & Hairstyling, I feel compelled to remove it from 1st place here (though it still be the MCU’s first winner). The Creator? Godzilla? Perhaps. For now I’m rolling with Poor Things atop the leaderboard, but this is a toughie.
NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS:
1. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+2)
2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Best Original Score
Shortlist: American Fiction, American Symphony, Barbie, The Boy and the Heron, The Color Purple, Elemental, The Holdovers, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 10/15
Some rather unexpected snubs including Nyad and Past Lives. I also had Carmen, Ferrari, and The Killer up for contention. In their places are American Fiction, American Symphony, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, and Saltburn. Like in Sound, the chances of Oppenheimer being victorious are decent.
NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Elemental (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (E)
10. American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Past Lives
Best Original Song
Shortlist: “Am I Dreaming” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse; “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes; “Dance the Night” from Barbie; “Dear Alien Who Art In Heaven” from Asteroid City; “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot; “High Life” from Flora and Son; “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie; “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony; “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple; “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son; “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives; “Road to Freedom” from Rustin; “Superpower” from The Color Purple; “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon; “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
How I Did: 10/15
Those three movies making up a third of the hopefuls are Barbie, Flora and Son, and The Color Purple. I incorrectly had both Flora tunes and “Superpower” from Purple out. Same goes for “Am I Dreaming” and “Can’t Catch Me Now”. The quintet that I incorrectly had in were “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (surprised it missed after the Globes nom), “Addicted to Romance” from She Came to Me (Bye Bruce Springsteen), “For the First Time” from The Little Mermaid, and “This Wish” from Wish (which I had in my top five days ago). It’s key to remember that only two tracks from a picture can make this race. That’s why I have “Dance the Night” outside the top ten since I’m confident “What Was I Made For?” and “I’m Just Ken” are in.
NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Dear Alien Who Art In Heaven” from Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Droppe Out:
“This Wish” from Wish
“Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
“It’s Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady
“A World of Your Own” from Wonka
Best International Feature Film
Shortlist: Amerikatsi (Armenia), Fallen Leaves (Finland), Four Daughters (Tunisia), Godland (Iceland), Io Capitano (Italy), The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan), The Mother of All Lies (Morocco), Perfect Days (Japan), The Promised Land (Denmark), Society of the Snow (Spain), The Taste of Things (France), The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany), Tótem (Mexico), 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine), The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
How I Did: 12/15
Documentaries The Mother of All Lies and Four Daughters are in as well as Amerikatsi. I had About Dry Grasses, The Peasants, and The Settlers. By the way, the miss for The Peasants may not bode well for its Animated Feature chances (where I’ve had it getting nominated). Barring an upset, this is The Zone of Interest‘s category to lose (though an upset isn’t totally out of the question).
NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Perfect Days (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tótem (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Io Capitano (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Monk and the Gun (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Godland (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
About Dry Grasses
The Promised Land
Best Documentary Feature
Shortlist: American Symphony, Apolonia, Apolonia, Beyond Utopia, Bobi Wire: The People’s President, Desperate Souls, Dark City, and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, In the Rearview, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, A Still Small Voice, 32 Sounds, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol
How I Did: 9/15
There’s always unforeseen developments in the Doc derby. My picks of The Deepest Breath, Kokomo City, The Mission, The Mother of All Lies (despite the IFF nod), Orlando, My Political Biography, and The Pigeon Tunnel fell in favor of Desperate Souls, Dark City, and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, In the Rearview, A Still Small Voice, 32 Sounds, and To Kill a Tiger. I’d say Beyond Utopia is still the slight favorite, but I’m very curious to see what certain precursors do.
NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS
1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)
2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)
3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (E)
5. American Symphony (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Still Small Voice (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Mother of All Lies
The Deepest Breath
Every Body
Keep an eye on the blog for all speculation as we inch closer to Oscar nomination morning!
Seven pieces of the Oscar speculation puzzle become clearer tomorrow when shortlists are submitted in various feature length races. We will learn the final 15 contenders in International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Original Score, and Original Song. Additionally, the 10 finalists for Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects will be revealed.
With history as our guide, I can reveal there will likely be surprises. There’s usually an out of nowhere song or doc or Makeup & Hairstyling hopeful that emerges.
I’ll have a post up tomorrow with my quick take on my picks and analysis. Here is my forecast for those seven shortlists with an alternate selection in each!
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Shortlist (10):
Barbie
Golda
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Napoleon
Nyad
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Priscilla
Alternate: The Color Purple
Best Sound
Predicted Shortlist (10):
Barbie
The Color Purple
Ferrari
The Killer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: The Creator
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Shortlist (10):
The Creator
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire
Society of the Snow
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: Barbie
Best Original Score
Predicted Shortlist (15):
Barbie
The Boy and the Heron
Carmen
Elemental
Ferrari
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
The Killer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Nyad
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: Origin
Best Original Song
Predicted Shortlist (15):
“Addicted to Romance” from She Came to Me
“Camp Isn’t Home” from Theater Camp
“Dance the Night” from Barbie
“Dear Alien Who Art In Heaven” from Asteroid City
“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot
“For the First Time” from The Little Mermaid
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“It Never Went Away” from American Symphony
“Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple
“Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
“Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives
“Road to Freedom” from Rustin
“This Wish” from Wish
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon