The 37th Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards take place this Saturday and their best of prize has become a rather reliable bellwether for the Academy’s Best Picture. The two have matched 7 out of the last 8 years with 2019 being the exception when PGA chose 1917 and Oscar went with Parasite.
PGA also honors documentaries and animated features. Let’s walk through each race with a winner and runner-up selection.
Daryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, Weapons
PGA and the Academy have a 9 for 10 match this year. Weapons makes the cut on this list with The Secret Agent replacing it at the Oscars. This is expected to come down to Warner Bros offerings One Battle and Sinners. While I am predicting the latter to get Best Ensemble at Sunday’s Actor Awards, I still see Battle as the Oscar frontrunner and therefore am picking it here. That said, if Sinners gets this, the momentum will have shifted.
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures
The Alabama Solution, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Mom Jayne, Ocean with David Attenborough, The Perfect Neighbor, The Tale of Silyan
At BAFTA over the weekend, Nobody rose above favored The Perfect Neighbor. In this doc derby, PGA has often shown a lean toward the most high profile project and that would be Neighbor. I’ll go with it with the caveat that this category can be unpredictable.
WINNER: The Perfect Neighbor
Runner-Up: The Alabama Solution
Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
The Bad Guys 2, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Zootopia 2
I find myself tempted to go with Zootopia 2 in an upset, but I can’t bet against juggernaut KPop.
My first update in two weeks showcases stability in the major races as there’s no changes in Picture, Director, or the four acting races. However, within the categories, there is movement worth noting. Frankenstein is now up to 7th and, for the first time, I would be surprised if it’s not nominated.
The only significant movie not yet seen is Avatar: Fire and Ash. As we await screening word-of-mouth, I still have it in the BP ten at ninth. If it does not end up making the cut (unlike its two predecessors), keep an eye on The Secret Agent. I have it rising to its highest perch in 12th with lead Wagner Moura now third for Best Actor.
On the eve of its Friday premiere, Wicked: For Good slips from 6th to 8th in BP while Ariana Grande continues to top the Supporting Actress rankings. The actual review embargo lifts tomorrow and that could shift Wicked‘s placement in numerous competitions.
You can read all the movement below, including my projection that Netflix’s Train Dreams is on track for an Adapted Screenplay nod (taking out Netflix’s Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery).
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Bugonia (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Secret Agent (PR: 14) (+2)
13. No Other Choice (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (E)
8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Secret Agent (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Blue Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)
9. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Life of Chuck
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirât (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Love That Remains (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Scarlet (PR: 7) (+1)
7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (-1)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (E)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Alabama Solution (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Seeds (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Tale of Silyan (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Deaf President Now! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cutting Through Rocks
The Eyes of Ghana
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)
9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Hedda (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+3)
7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-3)
9. No Other Choice (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Weapons (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Bugonia (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sentimental Value
A House of Dynamite
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)
3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-2)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 9) (+2)
8. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 7) (-2)
5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Warfare (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marty Supreme
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Mickey 17 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (E)
That means I have these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
One Battle After Another
12 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
Marty Supreme
7 Nominations
Sentimental Value
6 Nominations
Frankenstein, Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Zootopia 2
Six years after her feature Honeyland was nominated for Best International Feature Film and Best Documentary Feature, Tamara Kotevska will try to achieve the same with follow-up The Tale of Silyan. The Macedonian production marks the filmmaker’s first solo effort as Ljubomir Stefanov was her partner on previous works.
Centered on a farmer nursing an injured stork back to life, Silyan played the Venice Film Festival and was picked up by National Geographic domestically. Reviews are impressive with 100% on RT and an 84 Metacritic. A limited (and Oscar qualifying) run arrives November 28th followed by a Disney+ release. Macedonia has already announced it as their selection for the international competition.
The combo of Nat Geo and the Mouse House campaigning could bode well for its prospects. I’ve yet to list this in either IFF or Doc Feature as a possibility, but that might change with my next update. I do feel it has a stronger shot in the latter as IFF is plenty crowded already. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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