After a record breaking start, A Minecraft Movie should easily repeat in first position at the box office. Yet there’s a handful of newcomers jockeying for slots 2-6. We have the faith-based animated tale The King of Kings, Rami Malek’s spy thriller The Amateur, Blumhouse thriller Drop, Alex Garland’s Iraqi Freedom drama Warfare, and episodes 6-8 of the Christian show The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:
Based on the best selling video game of all time, A Minecraft Movie achieved the best opening for a picture based on a video game (more on that below). I’m estimating a sophomore drop between 50-55% and that should put it somewhere in the mid 70s-low 80s.
A report surfaced today that The King of Kings has already taken in approximately $8 million in pre-sales. That’s surprising, but Angel Studios has certainly exceeded projections before via Sound of Freedom. A low 20s performance would easily put it in the runner-up spot.
After that it gets tricky. The Amateur, Warfare, and Drop could all open similarly in the $7-11 million range. I’ve got them placing in the order of the previous sentence with The Chosen in sixth.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $77.9 million
2. The King of Kings
Predicted Gross: $21.4 million
3. The Amateur
Predicted Gross: $11.9 million
4. Warfare
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
5. Drop
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
6. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
Box Office Results (April 4-6)
The box office got a much needed jolt as A Minecraft Movie kicked off well above forecasts. With $162.7 million, it is 2025’s largest start thus far and, as mentioned, the highest video game adapted feature in history. The previous record was held by 2023’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie with $146 million. I was way off with a prediction of only $92.5 million. With a less than expected B+ Cinemascore, it should fall further than the 37% that Mario dropped in its second weekend. Yet any way you cut it, this is a fantastic result for Warner Bros.
A Working Man with Jason Statham slid to second with $7.3 million, slightly under my $8 million call. The action thriller has made $27 million after ten days.
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 placed third with $6.9 million, not quite matching my $7.8 million estimate. Episodes 3-5 of the popular program made a little more than half of the nearly $12 million achieved by Part 1. Per above, diminishing returns should continue with Part 3.
Disney dud Snow White was fourth with $5.9 million (I said $6.7 million). The troubling three-week tally is $77 million.
Horror flick The Woman in the Yard was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the high five. With $4.5 million, the two-week total is $16 million.
I had Part 1 of the The Chosen in fifth with $5.2 million, but it plummeted 84% to seventh with $1.8 million for $17 million overall.
Blogger’s Update (04/03): On the eve of its premiere, a very significant update as Minecraft tracking is going through the roof. I’m upping my projection from $57.5 million to a whopping $92.5 million (!)
Based on the best-selling video game of all time, A Minecraft Movie hopes to build upon its popular IP and expand it to multiplexes. Jared Hess, maker of Napoleon Dynamite and Nacho Libre, directs Jason Momoa, Jack Black, Danielle Brooks, Emma Myers, Sebastian Hansen, and Jennifer Coolidge.
The fantastical adventure comes armed with a reported $150 million price tag and an initial trailer that left some fans cold. Once considered a cinematic graveyard at the box office thanks to 90s duds such as Super Mario Bros. and Double Dragon, fortunes for gaming adaptations have turned around in the past few years. Sonic the Hedgehog and sequels, Pokémon Detective Pikachu, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Five Nights at Freddy’s are recent examples.
Minecraft isn’t expected to approach the $146 million that Mario opened with in 2023. A more realistic goal is the $60 million that Sonic the Hedgehog 3 premiered with last year. I’ll give it a little under that.
A Minecraft Movie opening weekend prediction: $92.5 million
For my The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Update (08/08): On the eve of its premiere, I’m downsizing my estimate from $11.3 million to $8.1 million
For quite some, “based on a video game” was a kiss of death for cinematic adaptations. Some of the massive failures include 1993’s live-action Super Mario Bros., Double Dragon, Wing Commander, and Max Payne. That trend has reversed in recent years with hits like Uncharted, last year’s animated The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Five Nights at Freddy’s. So where Eli Roth’s Borderlands land? I suspect it might fail to break out.
The sci-fi action comedy is spawned from one of the most successful game franchises that began 15 years ago. An impressive cast includes Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jack Black (doing voiceover work), Edgar Ramirez, Ariana Greenblatt, Florian Munteanu, Gina Gershon, Haley Bennett, Bobby Lee, and Jamie Lee Curtis.
Some die-hard aficionados of the role-playing first-person shooter series will obviously turn up. Crossover appeal, despite the recognizable cast, could be a tall order. A debut of over $20 million should be considered a win, but I think it might stall out in the low double digits.
Borderlands opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million
Our nation’s most famous lasagna adoring orange cat hits theaters this Memorial Day weekend with The Garfield Movie. A year after (somewhat controversially) providing the voice of Mario in The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Chris Pratt does the same for this title character. Other notable thespians lending their talents are Samuel L. Jackson, Hannah Waddingham, Ving Rhames, Nicholas Hoult, Cecily Strong, Harvey Giuillén, Brett Goldstein, Bowen Yang, Janelle James, and Snoop Dogg. Mark Dindal directs.
Even the fresher reviews for Garfield mostly call it nothing more than a pleasant diversion. The Rotten Tomatoes meter sits at a meager 55%. Mario didn’t manage any attention in the Animated Feature race and Pratt’s latest contribution to animation won’t either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Arriving 20 years after the live-action version Garfield: The Movie based on the comic strip from Jim Davis, The Garfield Movie hits multiplexes this Memorial Day weekend. Mark Dindal, who made Disney’s The Emperor’s New Groove and Chicken Little, directs. Chris Pratt, after providing the vocal stylings for Mario in The Super Mario Bros. Movie last year, mics up for the iconic tabby cat. Other voice work comes from Samuel L. Jackson, Hannah Waddingham, Ving Rhames, Nicholas Hoult, Cecily Strong, Harvey Guillén, Brett Goldstein, Bowen Yang, Janelle James, and Snoop Dogg.
The aforementioned Garfield: The Movie from two decades ago (which led to a classic comedy line from Bill Murray in Zombieland) took in $21 million for starters and $75 million overall domestically. The 2006 sequel Garfield: A Tale of Two Kitties was the equivalent of cinematic kitty litter with only $28 million total in its coffers.
This animated rendering seems poised for better results than what happened several years ago. The holiday frame should bring families out in droves and competition from the second weekend of IF may only be a minor threat.
For the Friday to Monday frame, I believe this could get a little north of $40 million.
The Garfield Movie opening weekend prediction: $41.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga prediction, click here:
A weekend of precursors culminates on Sunday with the 35th PGA Awards. The 10 nominees in the top race at PGA happen to match the 10 that Oscar put up in Best Picture. There’s two other categories to consider with animated fare and docs. I will walk through all three with a winner prediction and a runner-up possibility.
Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Let’s not make this complicated, shall we? Oppenheimer should have no trouble taking this as it’s taken all key precursors. 7 of the last 10 PGA victors have ended up as the Academy’s BP (the last diversion was 2019 when 1917 took PGA and Parasite was BP).
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Barbie
Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
The Boy and the Heron has made this category one to watch with Globe and BAFTA trophies. That being said, I think Spidey has the edge with PGA.
Predicted Winner: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron
Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, The Disappearance of Shere Hite, The Mother of All Lies, Smoke Sauna Sisterhood, Squaring the Circle (The Story of Hipgnosis)
Mariupol has cleaned up on its way to a likely Oscar victory and it should emerge here.
Predicted Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol
Runner-Up: American Symphony
I’ll have a recap up on the blog after the show on Sunday!
Since my last predictions on January 6th, we’ve had a whole lotta activity with Oscar precursors. The Golden Globes aired and bestowed their Best Drama to Oppenheimer and Musical/Comedy to Poor Things (over Barbie). SAG released their nominees with some surprising omissions including Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things), and Charles Melton (May December).
And in perhaps the most unexpected development of all, the PGA Picture nominees included two international features with Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. PGA typically doesn’t honor foreign pics. The 10 movies they ended up nominating have been my Oscar BP ten for weeks. It’s a little scary to predict that the Academy and PGA will match 10/10… but here we are for now.
In Best Actor, Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) each rise a spot to 1-2 with Bradley Cooper (Maestro) sliding from first to third. In Supporting Actor, Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) enters the predicted quintet with Charles Melton (May December) on the outs.
An important note: this is my penultimate forecast for the 96th Academy Awards. My plan is to have final predictions up on Friday or Saturday next week before nomination morning on January 23rd.
Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Barbie (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)
7. American Fiction (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Color Purple (PR: 11) (E)
12. May December (PR: 12) (E)
13. Air (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)
15. Saltburn (PR: 13) (-2)
Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (-1)
Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (E)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)
Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)
7. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)
9. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)
Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)
9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)
Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)
4. May December (PR: 4) (E)
5. Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Iron Claw (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fair Play (PR: 10) (E)
Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. American Fiction (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)
7. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (E)
International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Society of the Snow (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)
8. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Four Daughters (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Io Capitano (PR: 8) (-2)
Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
5. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Eternal Memory (PR: 5) (-1)
7. American Symphony (PR: 4) (-3)
8. A Still Small Voice (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)
10. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (-2)
Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR:3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)
5. El Conde (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Saltburn (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ferrari
Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wonka (PR: 8) (E)
9. Priscilla (PR: 9) (E)
10. Chevalier (PR: 10) (E)
Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Air (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Past Lives (PR: 10) (E)
Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Golda (PR: 4) (E)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beau Is Afraid (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-1)
Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)
7. Elemental (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (E)
10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” from Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (-3)
Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Napoleon (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)
Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Ferrari (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Barbie (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)
Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Creator (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-2)
That means I’m forecasting these numbers of nominations for these films:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
5 Nominations
The Holdovers,Maestro
4 Nominations
American Fiction, Past Lives
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall
2 Nominations
The Color Purple, May December, Napoleon, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, El Conde, Elemental, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
The Producers Guild of America hold their 35th ceremony on February 25th with nominations out today. In an unexpected way, the PGA surprised us with their BP contenders.
For the two races (Best Theatrical Motion Picture and Best Animated Motion Picture), I went 12/15 in my picks.
For the big competition, there was general consensus that eight movies would make the cut: American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things.
Oppenheimer is seen as the frontrunner with Barbie and Killers as potential threats. That octet of expected features are nominated. It’s the other two that will get the lions share of attention on social media.
The PGA, in the past, has shown an aversion to international titles. Occasionally one gets in their top ten. 2018’s Roma and 2019’s Parasite are recent examples. Yet they seemed to be outliers. Roma was the favorite to win Oscar’s BP (though it lost to Green Book). Parasite did win.
Therefore it made sense for me (and most other prognosticators) to leave out Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. Instead I went with Air and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. Plenty of others selected The Color Purple and it was my alternate.
Yet PGA went ahead and nominated Anatomy and Zone (causing me to go 8/10). This is the first time they’ve nominated 2 foreign pics in the same year. Surprise surprise!
And this is where it gets tricky when it comes to projecting the Academy’s Best Picture lineup. It is very rare that PGA/Oscar match. In fact, we’ve seen four years (2009, 2010, 2021, 2022) where there’s been a set 10 contenders for both shows. In 2009 – the correlation between the two was 8 for 10. In 2010 – there was the high mark of 9. For 2021, it was 8. And it was 7 last year.
Here’s the problem. The PGA 10 is currently my Oscar BP 10. Will they actually match up? Is that possible? It sure seems to be, but time will tell and let’s see if my predictions shift when I update them this weekend.
In the Animated competition, your nominees are: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem.
I went 4 for 5. Mario, the highest grosser of the quintet, gets in over my pick of Wish (which was a Disney dud). Maybe I should’ve figured this guild would go with the massive blockbuster. Spidey is the safe call for victory.
I’ll have final predictions for the winners up shortly before the show!
On Sunday evening, the 29th Critics Choice Awards air on the CW with Chelsea Handler handling hosting duties. In the busiest Oscar precursor week of the year, it’ll cap off with this ceremony. Critics Choice has a mixed history matching with the Academy. Five of the last ten CC Picture victors won BP at the Oscars. For Actress – it’s 6 out of 10. Actor is 7 out of 10. Supporting Actress is 8 out of 10 and Supporting Actor is the most at 9 for 10.
Let’s go through each competition and I’ll give a winner and runner-up prediction. You can expect a recap of the show Sunday evening!
Picture
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, Saltburn
PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Barbie
Director
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
PREDICTED WINNER: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Actress
Nominees: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
PREDICTED WINNER: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Actor
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
PREDICTED WINNER: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Holdovers), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Julianne Moore (May December), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
PREDICTED WINNER: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Charles Melton (May December), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
PREDICTED WINNER: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Air, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: The Holdovers
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
PREDICTED WINNER: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Acting Ensemble
Nominees: Air, Barbie, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer
Young Actor/Actress
Nominees: Abby Ryder Fortson (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret), Ariana Greenblatt (Barbie), Calah Lane (Wonka), Milo Machado Graner (Anatomy of a Fall), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers), Madeleine Yuna Voyles (The Creator)
PREDICTED WINNER: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Milo Machado Graner, Anatomy of a Fall
Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Godzilla Minus One, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Taste of Things, The Zone of Interest
PREDICTED WINNER: Anatomy of a Fall
Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest
Comedy
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Bottoms, The Holdovers, No Hard Feelings, Poor Things
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: American Fiction
Animated Feature
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Wish
PREDICTED WINNER: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron
Cinematography
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn
PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Costume Design
Nominees: Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Poor Things, Wonka
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Editing
Nominees: Air, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Hair and Makeup
Nominees: Barbie, The Color Purple, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Priscilla
PREDICTED WINNER: Maestro
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Production Design
Nominees: Asteroid City, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Score
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Song
Nominees: “Dance the Night” from Barbie, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie, “Road to Freedom” from Rustin, “This Wish” from Wish, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
PREDICTED WINNER: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
Visual Effects
Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
PREDICTED WINNER: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer
That works out to the following wins for these movies:
6 Wins
Barbie, Oppenheimer
3 Wins
The Holdovers
2 Wins
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Win
Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Poor Things
As if there weren’t enough Oscar precursor activity with the SAG and DGA nominations arriving tomorrow, the Producers Guild of America (PGA) unveil their ten nominees for Best Theatrical Motion Picture and Best Animated Motion Picture on Friday.
In 2021, the Academy reverted back to a set 10 for BP contenders. There was an 8 for 10 correlation that year between the PGA’s movies and the Academy’s. Last year it was 7 for 10.
One commonality is that international titles usually don’t make the cut with PGA. While Parasite was a rare exception in 2019, Drive My Car and All Quiet on the Western Front weren’t to be found on PGA’s list in the last two years. Therefore I’m leaving out Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest for the 35th ceremony. Either or both could pop up, but this seems to be the smarter play.
With those potential Oscar BP hopefuls out, I do believe there’s a somewhat safe 8 to predict: American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things. I could see one or two potentially miss – Fiction, Maestro, and Lives might be vulnerable. Yet I won’t go as far in projecting any of them out.
That leaves two slots. The PGA often goes for blockbusters that the Academy ignores. Examples over the past decade include Straight Outta Compton, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, A Quiet Place, Crazy Rich Asians, Knives Out, and its sequel Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.
The list does not include Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse from 2018 (somewhat surprisingly). I’m hesitant, therefore, to include its sequel Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. The PGA could simply decide that it’ll likely win their Animated race and can be left off. However, Across was an even bigger financial success with glowing reviews. I’ve gone back and forth on this one, but I’m giving Spidey one of the open spots.
For the tenth film, there’s plenty of hopefuls. Could this be where The Color Purple makes a last stand for viability with the Academy? Could The Iron Claw pop up? Perhaps PGA will go with an unexpected title that didn’t garner across the board critical acclaim, but has a high profile director. Napoleon or Ferrari come to my mind. Will Saltburn or May December get in?
Those are all, to varying degrees, feasible. I ultimately am going with Air from Ben Affleck. While I don’t think it gets in for BP at the Oscars, the reviews and overall feeling that this is a rock solid sports drama puts it in over some of the aforementioned others.
As for the animated race and their five contenders, we’ve already established that Spidey is in. Because of the international movies thing, you may not find freshly minted Golden Globe winner The Boy and the Heron here. That same logic could apply to Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget. We shall see.
Let’s get to the list of nominees and an alternate, shall we?
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