South by Southwest is happening now and giving us some potential awards players (keep an eye out for my imminent Civil War post for example). It was at last year’s SXSW that festival goers were first exposed to Late Night with the Devil. Australian brothers Colin and Cameron Cairnes direct the 1970s set found footage horror flick with David Dastmalchian as a talk show host showcasing some demonic guests. Laura Gordon, Ian Bliss, and Fayssal Bazzi costar.
Devil is finally slated for stateside distribution on March 22nd with a Shudder streaming bow on April 19th. Many reviews are raves and it sports a 100% RT score. Dastmalchian, a memorable character who you may recognize from Prisoners, The Suicide Squad, Dune, and Oppenheimer, is being praised for this rare lead role.
That said, this is not the kind of material that awards voters notice… at least at the big dance. Perhaps the Indie Spirit Awards will be more attuned to its scare tactics. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
We will see if it struggles at the box office (which is expected) or exceeds projections, but Blue Beetle is topping expectations with its reviews. The 14th pic in the DC Universe currently has the 4th best Rotten Tomatoes score (81%) behind Wonder Woman, Shazam!, and The Suicide Squad. Ángel Manuel Soto directs the origin story with Xolo Maridueña as the title hero.
The MCU has racked up plenty of Visual Effects nods (though no victories) in addition to a BP nod for Black Panther five years ago. The DCU’s awards exposure has been far more limited. 2016’s Suicide Squad (not the stronger reviewed 2021 reboot The Suicide Squad) won for Makeup and Hairstyling. And that, my friends, is the extent of the DCU Oscar mentions.
It is worth noting that Visual Effects this year looks kind of thin. The unseen Dune: Part Two is probably the easy frontrunner while the other four slots are up for grabs. Beetle is getting some praise for its visuals and it likely stands a better chance than earlier ’23 DCU titles Shazam! Fury of the Gods and The Flash. If it can make the shortlist, maybe it gets in. I wouldn’t bet on it, but it’s doable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The twelve pictures that have made up the DC Extended Universe in the past decade has resulted in a grand total of one nomination at the Oscars. That honor belongs to Suicide Squad in 2016 for Makeup and Hairstyling and it won. Other DCEU titles like Man of Steel, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, Wonder Woman, Aquaman, and 2021’s The Suicide Squad couldn’t manage Visual Effects or Sound or any other mentions.
Could that change with The Flash? Opening June 16th, the superhero tale finally hits screens after multiples delays and lots of unflattering news about its lead Ezra Miller. On the other hand, audiences could be stoked to see the returns of Ben Affleck and especially Michael Keaton as Batman. Sasha Calle costars as Supergirl with Michael Shannon reprising his role as General Zod from Man of Steel. Andy Muschietti, best known for helming the two It chapters, directs.
The review embargo lapsed today and the result thus far is 73%. That’s fine, but plenty of the write-ups are of the mixed variety. It’s nostalgic overtones are being praised and criticized. I could see this contending for Visual Effects and probably that race only. Yet given the DCEU track record, I wouldn’t want to double down on it making the cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In 1993, NBA superstar Charles Barkley famously told the world in a commercial that he was not a role model. Nearly three decades later, cinematic superstar Dwayne Johnson tells us repeatedly in Black Adam that he is not a hero. This latest offering from the DC Extended Universe kind of has a mid 90s vibe when it comes to comic book adaptations. That was a weak time for the genre prior to its explosion in the 21st century. As far as quality, this has more in common with 1996’s Kazaam, which starred Barkley’s Inside the NBA colleague Shaquille O’Neal. Adam may have a connection to 2019’s Shazam!, but shares little of its entertainment value.
A prologue in 2600 B.C. introduces us to the fictional Middle Eastern nation of Kahndaq. A young boy enslaved by an evil ruler chooses to take a stand against the oppression (even as his elders discourage it). He is rewarded by the Council of Wizards – hence that Shazam! tie-in as he’s given the immense powers of that character.
Flash forward 5000 years and Kahndaq is under a different kind of oppression from a crime syndicated known as Intergang. Archeologist Adrianna (Sarah Shahi) is in search of the Crown of Sabbac, which turns its wearer into a demonic being. Intergang is looking for it as well. When they clash, she manages to awaken Teth-Adam. He’s believed to be that heroic rebel from 50 centuries ago. Dwayne Johnson is the awoken being. Adam insists that’s he not a hero and keeps saying it.
The presence of this superhuman relic attracts the attention of Amanda Waller (Viola Davis), who you may remember as The Suicide Squad‘s recruiter. Adam is looked at as a potential threat. The Squad doesn’t intervene. Neither does Superman or Batman or The Flash (though they’re glimpsed on the bedroom wall of Adrianna’s teenage son). Instead the Justice Society books passage to Kahndaq to investigate just how dangerous Adam is. Pierce Brosnan is the clairvoyant Doctor Fate, Aldis Hodge is Hawkman, Noah Centineo plays Atom Smasher (think Ant-Man but he can only grow big), and Quintessa Swindell is the twirling Cyclone. If this sounds like the B list of the DC pages, that’s certainly how it feels. That superficiality extends to the villain (Marwan Kenzari), the Intergang leader who dons the devilish crown. He might be more forgettable than Justice League‘s baddie Steppenwolf (Ciarán Hinds) and that’s saying a lot.
Jaume Collet-Serra directed Johnson in the pretty enjoyable Jungle Cruise. That collaboration was a better ride than this. Johnson is saddled with a hero (wait… NOT a hero!!!) who’s often a sullen bore. Very little of the actor’s dynamic personality comes through. It breaks through on occasion but not nearly enough. We’re cooking at a low boil. Everything in Black Adam has been done with more pizzazz in other DCEU and especially MCU pictures. Dwayne Johnson (and Tina Turner) are right in this case. We don’t need another hero.
Of the ten 10 previous films making up the DC Extended Universe, there’s only one Oscar nomination to be found. That’s the third film in the franchise – 2016’s Suicide Squad – and it’s a win in the Makeup and Hairstyling race.
Black Adam with Dwayne Johnson represents a new chapter in the DCEU as Warner Bros hopes the character becomes a fixture in future installments. Out Friday, the review embargo has lifted and critical reaction is certainly in the mixed variety. The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 54%.
From Man of Steel up through last summer’s new version of The Suicide Squad, even the competitions where comic book adaptations can contend have escaped awards attention. That includes Best Sound and Visual Effects (where numerous MCU titles have been nominated though never won). From what I’ve seen reaction wise, there’s no reason to think Black Adam would be contending for a second DCEU nod. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
And at last… they’re out! After months of speculating on the blog (starting all the way back with my initial predictions in August), the Oscar nominations for the 94th Academy Awards were unveiled early this morning.
As always, there’s shocking omissions and surprising additions. There’s races that went as planned. And (for me at least) there’s always that one tricky category where I end up going 2/5. This year it was Documentary Feature which is notoriously tough to figure out. On the flip side, I projected 4 out of the 20 feature film competitions with 5/5 accuracy. All in all – I went 82 for 105 on the picks.
Some initial thoughts before I break it down race by race. The Power of the Dog was easily the winner of the morning with 12 nods (even more than anticipated). It led all nominees with Dune second (10).
Other movies that either met or exceeded expectations: Drive My Car, King Richard, and Nightmare Alley (which was the only somewhat surprising BP addition). For others, it was more of a mixed bag. Belfast garnered 7 mentions but came up short in key tech indicators like Cinematography and Editing. The same can be said for Licorice Pizza. Seven was also the number for West Side Story, but it missed screenplay. Being the Ricardos got 3 acting nods but no Picture or screenplay. And even Dune, with the 10 nods, somehow missed a director nomination for Denis Villeneuve.
Then there’s House of Gucci, which showed up only in Makeup and Hairstyling. No Jared Leto (I predicted he’d be left off), but no Lady Gaga in Actress was perhaps the shocker of the day.
Let’s get into it and I’ll offer my initial take on what/who could win (my final predictions will come shortly before the March 27th show).
Best Picture
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
How I Did: 9/10
Commentary: My one miss was Alley coming in over Being the Ricardos. Make no mistake. With its 12 mentions, The Power of the Dog is undoubtedly the frontrunner. Yes, the Twitterverse will offer alternate theories. Could Drive My Car‘s impressive haul give us our second foreign BP winner in three years? Could Belfast or West Side Story spoil? I doubt it.
Best Director
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Hamaguchi getting in wasn’t unforeseen. If so, I figured he’d do so over Anderson, Branagh, or Spielberg and certainly not Villeneuve. That’s what happened. Campion made history today by becoming the first female nominee to get a second nomination. All signs point to her becoming the third (after Kathryn Bigelow and Chloe Zhao) to win.
Best Actress
Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: We now arrive at the biggest head scratcher of the major categories. Gaga’s aforementioned omission is truly unexpected (Cruz takes her slot). The precursors (BAFTA, Globes, SAG) have been all over the map and there’s no obvious favorite. I would say Cruz doesn’t stand much of a chance, but the other four do (it’s a lot like last year’s Actress derby). This is also the first time since 2005 where no Actress hopeful has their film in contention for Best Picture. Kidman’s Globe win could help and we’ll see what SAG does, but this is wide open.
Best Actor
Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: That’s more like it! Smith (especially after Richard‘s good morning) is out ahead though I could see Cumberbatch definitely threatening after Dog‘s very good morning. Fun tidbit: not since 1980 has the Best Actor race consisted entirely of previous nominees until today.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: This was the first race announced today and the jaws of prognosticators dropped immediately. Buckley and (especially) Dench were not anticipated by most. I didn’t even have either as my runner-up or second alternate. They displace Ruth Negga (Passing) and Dench’s costar Caitriona Balfe. While the lineup is different than we thought, the frontrunner (DeBose) remains the same with Dunst (getting her first nod) as a possible upset pick.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Simmons in over Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizza. Mr. Cooper has two movies contending for BP but no singling out to show for it. Smit-McPhee may be out in front but a Kotsur victory is feasible.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Worst Person is the surprise. I didn’t predict Richard though its inclusion was expected. They’re in over Ricardos and Parallel Mothers (which was admittedly a bit of an upset pick from me). This should be between Belfast and Pizza and it may represent the best opportunity for either to grab a statue.
Tidbit: since 2001, there was at least one screenplay contender where it served as its only nomination. Until today.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: Let’s not overcomplicate it when we don’t need to. Power is far and away the leader in this pack.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: This went as planned. There are three Disney products in the group, but the other two (Flee, Mitchells) are potential roadblocks to Encanto winning. Yet betting against Disney usually isn’t wise in this one and Encanto will probably take it.
Best International Feature Film
Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
The Worst Person in the World
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: I’m gonna go ahead and say Lunana is the first Oscar contender with Yak in its title without checking (correct me if wrong). It surprisingly gets in (along with far less surprising The Hand of God) over A Hero and Playground. This one’s simple: anything other than Car would be a massive upset.
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees:
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing with Fire
How I Did: 2/5
Commentary: There’s that blasted 2 for 5 race! Ascension, Attica, and Fire are up over my selections of Faye Dayi, Procession, and The Rescue (its omission is stunning considering it was a contender to win).
Flee made history by becoming the first film to be nominated for Animated Feature, International Feature Film, and here. This race probably marks its best chance to win, but I wouldn’t sleep on Summer of Soul.
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Alley over Belfast. Get used to hearing this with the tech categories – Dune might be out in front. Dog could threaten.
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Cyrano‘s sole nod comes here. I had House of Gucci instead. Dune can’t win all the techs and Cruella could take this.
Best Film Editing
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick… Boom!
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Richard and Boom! over Belfast and Licorice Pizza. The Belfast omission is particularly notable as BP victors nearly always are nominated here. This could be more Dune gold.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Went with Suicide Squad over Coming 2 America. Despite its bad performance this morning, Gucci could win this. Or it might just go to Dune.
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
No Time to Die
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Went with The French Dispatch (which goose egged) over Mothers. As for the winner (get ready for it) – expect Dune or Dog.
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Maybe the surprise here shouldn’t be with “Somehow You Do” over “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up. After all, this marks Diane Warren’s 13th nomination and sixth in the last seven years. She’s never won and won’t this time.
“Be Alive” from Beyonce or “Oruguitas” could get it, but “No Time to Die” from Billie Eilish could be the third Bond theme in a row to be celebrated.
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Another category where I said French Dispatch and missed. Power gets in instead. While Dune is strong, I wouldn’t be startled to see this as the lone victory for Nightmare Alley.
Best Sound
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: You should hear Dune‘s name called.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Free Guy and Spidey over The Matrix Resurrections and Godzilla vs. Kong. As for the winner: See Best Sound.
Here’s the overall nominations break down:
12 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
10 Nominations
Dune
7 Nominations
Belfast, West Side Story
6 Nominations
King Richard
4 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Nightmare Alley
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, CODA, Encanto, Flee, Licorice Pizza, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2 Nominations
Cruella, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Parallel Mothers, Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Worst Person in the World
1 Nomination
Ascension, Attica, Coming 2 America, Cyrano, Four Good Days, Free Guy, The Hand of God, House of Gucci, Luca, Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Raya and the Last Dragon, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spencer, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, Writing with Fire
Starting very shortly, you can peruse my Case Of posts in which I write individualized posts for all the contenders in Picture, Director, and the four acting races!
This is it! After months of speculation that began all the way back in a time known as August 2021, the guesswork grinds to a halt. It’s time for my FINAL Oscar predictions for the 94th Academy Awards. Nominations are out Tuesday (February 8th) with the big show airing March 27th.
I’ve penned thousands of words discussing the various feature film categories that will be revealed. The speculation ends today. For each race, I will give you my picks along with a runner-up and a second alternate. On Tuesday, I’ll have reaction up with my thoughts and, of course, how I did with the prognostications. I’m also giving you how I fared in the previous two years with each category.
So… pencils down. Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
2019 Performance: 9/9
2020 Performance: 7/9
***There are 10 fixed nominees now***
Predicted Nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Tick, Tick… Boom!
Second Alternate: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Director
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Runner-Up: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Second Alternate: Sian Heder, CODA
Best Actress
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 5/5
Predicted Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Runner-Up: Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Second Alternate: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Best Actor
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 5/5
Predicted Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Second Alternate: Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Best Supporting Actress
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
Runner-Up: Ann Dowd, Mass
Second Alternate: Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Best Supporting Actor
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Second Alternate: Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Best Original Screenplay
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
Parallel Mothers
Runner-Up: King Richard
Second Alternate: C’Mon C’Mon
Best Adapted Screenplay
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 3/5
Predicted Nominees:
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: West Side Story
Second Alternate: Passing
Best Animated Feature
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Runner-Up: Belle
Second Alternate: Sing 2
Best International Feature Film
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 2/5
Predicted Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
A Hero
Playground
The Worst Person in the World
Runner-Up: The Hand of God
Second Alternate: Prayers for the Stolen
Best Documentary Feature
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 3/5
Predicted Nominees:
Faya Dayi
Flee
Procession
The Rescue
Summer of Soul
Runner-Up: The First Wave
Second Alternate: Ascension
Best Cinematography
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Nightmare Alley
Second Alternate: Licorice Pizza
Best Costume Design
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Cruella
Dune
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Cyrano
Second Alternate: Licorice Pizza
Best Film Editing
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: West Side Story
Second Alternate: King Richard
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
The Suicide Squad
Runner-Up: Coming 2 America
Second Alternate: Cyrano
Best Original Score
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
The French Dispatch
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers
Second Alternate: Spencer
Best Original Song
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Runner-Up: “Here I Am” from Respect
Second Alternate: “Beyond the Shore” from CODA
Best Production Design
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 3/5
Predicted Nominees:
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Belfast
Second Alternate: Licorice Pizza
Best Sound
2020 Performance: 5/5
***Sound races were split into Editing and Mixing prior to 2020
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: A Quiet Place Part II
Second Alternate: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Best Visual Effects
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 3/5
Predicted Nominees:
Dune
Godzilla vs. Kong
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Runner-Up: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Second Alternate: Ghostbusters: Afterlife
And this means my FINAL tally of total nominations for these films are as follows:
11 Nominations
Dune, The Power of the Dog
9 Nominations
Belfast
7 Nominations
West Side Story
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, King Richard
3 Nominations
CODA, Drive My Car, Encanto, Flee, House of Gucci, No Time to Die, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2 Nominations
Cruella, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley
1 Nomination
Faya Dayi, Godzilla vs. Kong, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Parallel Mothers, Passing, Playground, Procession, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spencer, The Suicide Squad, Summer of Soul, Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Worst Person in the World
Come Tuesday – visit the blog for reaction to the nominations!
The DGA and PGA nominations are out as of yesterday and it’s caused some reflection as I pen my penultimate predictions for the 2021 Oscars. With Being the Ricardos and Tick, Tick… Boom! nabbing the final two BP spots at PGA (the other 8 were pretty obvious), I feel it necessary to include at least one of them. On the other hand, I’m reluctant to include both as PGA and the Academy’s BP selection rarely match. I’m leaning toward Boom! and it vaults back into the top ten. Yet I’m continuing to keep The Tragedy of Macbeth in the mix despite its lack of recent precursor love.
The DGA quintet and the Best Director nominees haven’t mirrored each other since 2009. So it’s a risk to go with DGA’s five. However, as of this moment, I’m going with it.
Another big change is in Best Actor as I’m including Javier Bardem in Ricardos for the first time (over Leonardo DiCaprio for Don’t Look Up). There’s also a change in Supporting Actor as I’m putting Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) in for his inaugural appearance. That knocks out Jared Leto for Gucci.
The last big piece of the precursor puzzle arrives Thursday with BAFTA nods. On Friday (02/04), I will make my FINAL Oscar calls before nomination morning on Tuesday, February 8th.
Here’s how I have things standing as of now:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune (PR: 4) (+1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
6. King Richard (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)
8. CODA (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 11) (+2)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Being the Ricardos (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Drive My Car (PR: 13) (+1)
13. House of Gucci (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Lost Daughter (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
No Time to Die
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 9) (E)
10. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 1) (E)
2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 2) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (E)
9. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (+1)
8. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. Being the Ricardos (PR: 4) (E)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mass (PR: 8) (E)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (E)
10. A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Pig
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. Passing (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belle (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sing 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Vivo (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
My Sunny Maad
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)
2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Your Man (PR: 6) (E)
7. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Great Freedom (PR: 9) (E)
10. Playground (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Good Boss
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)
3. Procession (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The First Wave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ascension (PR: 6) (E)
7. Faya Dayi (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Attica (PR: 7) (-1)
9. President (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Velvet Underground (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
In the Same Breath
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spencer (PR: 10) (+1)
10. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
C’Mon C’Mon
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-4)
7. King Richard (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+1)
10. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Being the Ricardos
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (+1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Cyrano (PR: 9) (E)
10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spencer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parallel Mothers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Encanto (PR: 7) (-1)
9. King Richard (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+2)
5. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 8) (E)
9. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (+1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Spencer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cyrano (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 3) (E)
4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Free Guy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Eternals (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 9) (E)
10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)
This all equates to the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:
11 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast, The Power of the Dog
8 Nominations
West Side Story
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
King Richard, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Tick, Tick… Boom!
2 Nominations
Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die, Spencer
1 Nomination
C’Mon C’Mon, Coming 2 America, Drive My Car, The First Wave, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Procession, Ray and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Tender Bar, The Worst Person in the World
In two weeks time, House of Gucci has gone from unranked in my top 15 Best Picture possibilities to making the cut in 10th. Whether it stays there – who knows? As I see it, the top 8 look relatively safe and then it could be a free for all for the last two spots. Gucci‘s rise means Tick, Tick… Boom! drops out.
I’ve also made way for The Lone Screenplay nominee which has occurred every year since 2001. C’Mon C’Mon is now included in Original Screenplay and that knocks out King Richard. I wrote about The Lone Screenplay history of the 21st century here:
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have a penultimate update next week before unveiling my final predictions shortly before the February 8th announcement!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (+2)
7. King Richard (PR: 6) (-1)
8. CODA (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+1)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Being the Ricardos (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Drive My Car (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Lost Daughter (PR: 14) (E)
15. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nightmare Alley
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 1) (E)
2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 6) (E)
7. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 7) (E)
8. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (E)
9. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. Being the Ricardos (PR: 5) (+1)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mass (PR: 8) (E)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (E)
10. Pig (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Hero
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dune (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Passing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Last Duel (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belle (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (E)
8. Vivo (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 10) (+1)
10. My Sunny Maad (PR: 8) (-2)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)
2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 8) (E)
9. Great Freedom (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Good Boss (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Procession (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The First Wave (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ascension (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Attica (PR: 6) (-1)
8. President (PR: 8) (E)
9. Faya Dayi (PR: 9) (E)
10. In the Same Breath (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Julia
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (+1)
5. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (-1)
9. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spencer (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spencer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (E)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (-2)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The French Dispatch
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cyrano (PR: 9) (E)
10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Encanto (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-1)
9. King Richard (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 9) (+2)
8. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Spencer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Cruella
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Free Guy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Eternals (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these films achieving these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
5 Nominations
House of Gucci, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, King Richard, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
CODA, Flee, No Time to Die
2 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Lost Daughter, Spencer, Tick, Tick… Boom!
1 Nomination
C’Mon C’Mon, Coming 2 America, Drive My Car, The First Wave, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Nightmare Alley, Parallel Mothers, Passing, Procession, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Respect, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
My first Oscar predictions following the Golden Globes bestowing their winners and the SAG Award nods comes with not a whole lot of changes in who and what I’m actually predicting in the major categories.
However, there is a significant alteration in placement for Best Actress as Kristen Stewart’s shocking omission in Spencer from the SAG five drops her from 1st (where she’s been perched for months) to 4th. Rising to #1 is Globes victor Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos. This competition is beginning to resemble the unpredictable Actress lineup from 2020 and it should be fun to witness.
In Best Picture, I’m (perhaps stubbornly) sticking to the same ten. Yet there’s no doubt that Ricardos and House of Gucci could be on the rise and either or both could crack the lineup soon.
The only significant change is in Supporting Actor where I’m finally putting Jared Leto for Gucci in the mix. He’s in over Jamie Dornan (Belfast).
I’m also adding a new feature which shows how many eventual nominees from 2020 were correctly picked at this same juncture. I’ll keep that up until I make my final picks shortly before the February 8th announcement. This will be listed as 2020 Count.
You can read all the movement below.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. CODA (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Being the Ricardos (PR: 14) (+3)
12. House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Drive My Car (PR: 11) (-2)
14. The Lost Daughter (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Nightmare Alley (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: No Way Home
2020 Count: 7 of 8 eventual nominees
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (-1)
2020 Count: 2 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Judi Dench, Belfast
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (-2)
9. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 8) (-2)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. King Richard (PR: 4) (E)
5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Mass (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (+1)
10. A Hero (PR: 9) (-1)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Passing (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Last Duel (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Luca (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belle (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (E)
8. My Sunny Maad (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Vivo (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (-1)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)
2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Great Freedom (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Good Boss (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Rescue (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Procession (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Summer of Soul (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Ascension (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Attica (PR: 6) (E)
7. The First Wave (PR: 7) (E)
8. President (PR: 8) (E)
9. Faya Dayi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Julia (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
In the Same Breath
2020 Count: 1 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Belfast (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Spencer (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (-2)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
No Time to Die
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Spencer (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cyrano (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (-2)
8. King Richard (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Nightmare Alley
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Cruella (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Suicide Squad (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-2)
8. West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-1)
10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Spencer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parallel Mothers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Encanto (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Right Where I Belong” from Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cyrano (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cruella (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (+2)
7. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 7) (E)
8. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 9) (E)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Time to Die (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Free Guy (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Eternals (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
And that equates to these movies hitting these numbers for their nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, King Richard
4 Nominations
House of Gucci, Licorice Pizza, Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
CODA, Flee, Spencer
2 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Ascension, Coming 2 America, Drive My Car, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Procession, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home, The Worst Person in the World
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