Oscar Predictions: A Private Life

While the picture itself is drawing more assorted reactions (80% currently on RT), Cannes viewers are praising Jodie Foster’s lead work in A Private Life. She plays an emotionally challenged psychiatrist investigating a crime in the dramedy from Rebecca Zlotowski. Costars include Daniel Auteuil, Virginie Efira, and Mathieu Amalric. Sony Pictures Classics holds the stateside distribution rights with a release date TBD.

Foster is no stranger to awards love with five Oscar noms including lead Actress victories for 1988’s The Accused and 1991’s The Silence of the Lambs. Her last nod came just two years ago in supporting for Nyad. I don’t see the legendary performer grabbing her sixth for this.

The Golden Globes could be a different story. If Sony campaigns for Foster in Best Actress (Musical/Comedy), she could be in line for her 8th GG try when counting her TV work. That particular branch loves her as she’s taken home 4 trophies from the group formerly known as the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. My Oscar (and Globe) prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Longlegs

Prior to its release on July 12th, Longlegs from Osgood Perkins is generating some loud buzz. The horror thriller stars It Follows actress Maika Monroe alongside Nicolas Cage as a doll making serial killer who’s barely glimpsed in the effective trailers. Blair Underwood, Alicia Witt, and Kiernan Shipka costar.

The Neon release is drawing some comparisons to The Silence of the Lambs and not just because it’s set in the 1990s. Lambs was an anomaly as the only horror flick to take BP and win Director, Actor, Actress, and Adapted Screenplay for good measure. This is not a genre that often resonates with the Academy and I suspect Longlegs won’t either despite the current 100% RT score. I would note that most reviews are not putting it in the Lambs league.

Critics are praising Cage for his creepy work. Don’t be surprised if Neon mounts a Supporting Actor campaign, but I highly doubt it will pan out in the long run. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars: The Case of Jodie Foster in Nyad

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our fourth performer in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Jodie Foster in Nyad. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

Taxi Driver (Supporting Actress, 1976); The Accused (Actress, 1988, WON); The Silence of the Lambs (Actress, 1991, WON); Nell (Actress, 1994)

The Case for Jodie Foster:

The legendary actress hit the Globes/SAG/Critics Choice trifecta of precursors. Foster’s fifth Oscar nod comes nearly 40 years after her initial supporting try and almost 30 years since her last leading nomination. It may not hurt that she’s just coming off an acclaimed TV role on HBO’s True Detective: Night Country.

The Case Against Jodie Foster:

In addition to Foster missing BAFTA, Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) has won everywhere and appears easily headed toward the victory. While costar Annette Bening is up for lead actress, Nyad showed up nowhere else in the Academy’s mentions.

The Verdict:

This is Randolph’s prize.

My Case Of posts will continue with Ryan Gosling in Barbie…

Oscar Predictions: Freud’s Last Session

Sony Pictures will release Freud’s Last Session on December 22nd. It premiered last week at the AFI Fest. Matt Brown directs the adaptation of Mark St. Germain’s play which imagines a fictional meeting between Sigmund Freud (Anthony Hopkins) and C.S. Lewis (Matthew Goode). Discussions on faith and psychology naturally follow.

The two-hander has drawn mixed reviews thus far (not enough for a Rotten Tomatoes score). While the script is being criticized and this will not generate any BP attention, there is the matter of Sir Anthony.

32 years after winning Best Actor for The Silence of the Lambs and three years after taking it again for The Father, the legend is unsurprisingly receiving praise for his work. At one time, I thought his awards viability could be stronger for One Life (which played the fest circuit this fall). However, its release date was recently slated for 2024.

With the so-so reviews, I suspect Hopkins won’t factor into this year’s leading man derby as it’s already stacked with likelier contenders from Bradley Cooper (Maestro) to Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) to Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) and more. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: One Life

One Life has had its world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival as it seeks one nomination in particular from awards voters. From director James Hawes, it stars Anthony Hopkins as the real-life rescuer of Jewish children before the atrocities of the Holocaust. Johnny Flynn plays the hunger version of his character with Helena Bonham Carter, Lena Olin, and Jonathan Pryce in the supporting cast.

Early reviews put it at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. The stateside release date is TBD though it should be out by year’s end. The bulk of the reaction indicates this is not a BP contender. However, much praise is being heaped on Hopkins. This seems like the type of role that might be bait for the Academy.

As has been discussed in the past couple of weeks, the lead actor race is shaping up to be a barnburner. Surefire contenders (to name just five) include Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers). Had Hopkins not won Best Actor just three years ago for The Father (his second after 1991’s The Silence of the Lambs), I might list him with that quintet. As of now, he could get in but I think he’s on the outside. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Lost Daughter Finds Gotham Love

The Gotham Awards, which honors independent pictures, held its annual ceremony tonight with category shifts, surprises, and ties. The NYC based event is not exactly seen as a reliable barometer of what will happen at the Oscars. However, it’s worth noting that since the Best Feature category was established in 2004, there’s only been three years (2007, 2008, 2018) in which none of the nominees made the Academy’s Best Picture cut. Four recent Gotham winners (Birdman, Spotlight, Moonlight, and last year’s Nomadland) ended up being the Oscar selection.

In 2021, none of the five nominees for the big race were listed in my latest Oscar estimates. In fact, none of the quintet were in my top 15 possibilities. That would be going against the grain for what Gotham typically produces and the big winner tonight is undoubtedly Maggie Gyllenhaal’s directorial debut The Lost Daughter (which hits theaters on December 17 and Netflix on New Years Eve). The psychological drama took the top prize over The Green Knight, Passing, Pig, and Test Pattern. I only foresee Daughter and Passing as having viable paths to a Best Pic nod and the former’s victory here gives it more exposure.

In addition to Best Feature, Daughter was honored for Breakthrough Director and Screenplay. I am confident an Adapted Screenplay nod from the Academy is coming its way.

As for those category shifts, the Gothams chose to eliminate gender distinction in the lead acting derbies. Yet, ironically, there was a tie bestowing the award for a male and female. That provided another statue for Daughter and its lead Olivia Colman (as her Best Actress chances are looking stronger each day). The male was a surprise with character actor Frankie Faison for The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain. You may know him best as orderly Barney in The Silence of the Lambs, but his lead role here got him attention over Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon). I wouldn’t count on Academy members taking notice.

This is the first year in which Gotham had a supporting race (also gender neutral) and it went to Troy Kotsur in CODA. This will feels a bit more significant as the scene stealer won over stellar competition like his costar Marlee Matlin and Ruth Negga in Passing. In an Oscar year where Supporting Actor is wide open, awards like this could propel Kotsur to make the final cut.

Elsewhere Flee took Documentary (it’s a likely shoo-in with the Academy) while Drive My Car helped its case in the foreign race over Titane and The Worst Person in the World. 

Bottom line: Daughter found a precursor in Gotham that should raise the profile as the Oscar folks are starting to pay attention.

Shoulda Been Oscar Contenders: Linda Hamilton in Terminator 2: Judgment Day

My latest Shoulda Been Oscar Contender is an appropriate one for Mother’s Day. This particular mama went to great lengths to protect her son since, ya know, he was charged with saving the universe decades later from annihilation. She even got herself thrown in a mental hospital because of her heroic efforts.

I’m speaking of Linda Hamilton as Sarah Connor in James Cameron’s Terminator 2: Judgment Day. Reprising her role from the 1984 classic, Hamilton stepped up her game in the 1991 sequel alongside Arnold Schwarzenegger and Edward Furlong as her future Earth saving teen.

Terminator 2 was a game changer itself when it came to special effects and action. It resulted in six Oscar nominations, including victories for Makeup, Sound, Sound Effects Editing, and (of course) Visual Effects. Yet nods in the biggest categories were elusive. 1991 was a strong year in Best Actress with Jodie Foster winning for The Silence of the Lambs over the sturdy competition of Geena Davis and Susan Sarandon for Thelma & Louise and Laura Dern in Rambling Rose. 

However, Hamilton’s strong (and not just her biceps) performance could have easily gotten the fifth slot over Bette Midler in For the Boys. MTV recognized her work and she won Best Actress at their ceremony. And while the Academy isn’t known to honor performances in action flicks, they had deservedly done so just five years earlier for Sigourney Weaver in another heralded genre sequel Aliens (also directed by Cameron).

They missed a good opportunity to do the same here. Lastly, while not every mother is charged with keeping their kid alive to avoid planetary destruction, the great ones sure make us all feel like they do. Happy Mother’s Day to all of them!

Oscars 2020: The Case of Anthony Hopkins

The work of Anthony Hopkins in The Father is my third Case Of post for the five Best Actor contenders. If you missed the first two for Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) and Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), you can find them here:

Oscars 2020: The Case of Riz Ahmed

Oscars 2020: The Case of Chadwick Boseman

The Case for Anthony Hopkins

Nearly 30 years after winning Best Actor for his iconic role as Hannibal Lecter in The Silence of the Lambs, the 83-year-old Hopkins is receiving some of the best reviews of his career for Florian Zeller’s Alzheimer’s drama. This is his sixth nod overall and his second in a row after last year’s supporting turn in The Two Popes. Hopkins is a beloved actor who has been seen a strong candidate in this race ever since it debuted at Sundance back in January 2020.

The Case Against Anthony Hopkins

Simply put: Chadwick Boseman. All major precursors have bestowed their honors on the late performer’s role in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. 

The Verdict

It’s hard to imagine Boseman not taking the gold at this point, but Hopkins and Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) are looked at the only two potential spoilers. If Hopkins were to win BAFTA tomorrow, perhaps that will feed more speculation. However, Boseman is the heavy favorite.

My Case Of posts will continue with The Father costar Olivia Colman…

Oscars 2020: The Case of The Father

Now that Oscar nominations are out, this evening begins my (gulp) 33 part series outlining the cases for and against the nominees in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting races. I will start with write-ups on the 8 movies recognized and then move to the directing and acting categories. We begin with Florian Zeller’s The Father:

The Case For The Father

The Alzheimer’s drama has been on the awards radar for over a year when it premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in January 2020. Sitting at 99% on Rotten Tomatoes, it’s actually got the best rating of the pictures in contention. It’s fair to say The Father over performed on nomination morning with 6 mentions, including its two stars Anthony Hopkins (previous winner for The Silence of the Lambs) and Olivia Colman (Best Actress recipient two years back for The Favourite) and Best Adapted Screenplay. The Golden Globes also were very kind with their nods for it.

The Case Against The Father

While it came on strong towards the end with voters, its omission in Best Director for Zeller is a big miss. While not unheard of, it’s very rare for a feature to take the big prize without its filmmaker making it in. The Globes put it in their mix, but it resulted in no victories.

The Verdict

Of the 8 BP hopefuls, I suspect The Father appears most likely to come up completely empty-handed on April 25th.

My Case of posts will continue with Judas and the Black Messiah…

A Marvel Cinematic Oscar History: Best Actor

I was rewatching Avengers: Endgame over the weekend and it once again struck me how many famous actors are in that thing. I mean… seriously. It’s rather amazing. This got me thinking and yes, current world events may have given me an opportunity to do so:

Just how many performers that have been in Marvel Cinematic Universe entries have won Oscars or been nominated for Oscars? I knew the number would be high, but the answer still astonished me. In fact, you have to back to 1981 for a year where no actor that eventually appeared in the MCU didn’t receive a nomination.

If you count Marvel’s next two pictures (Black Widow, The Eternals) and then count the 23 movies prior that started in 2008 with Iron Man, it encapsulates 110 acting nominations and 20 wins! I am not yet putting Christian Bale in there though he’s rumored to be playing the villain in the fourth Thor flick. I’ll wait for confirmation on that. If you did count Bale, the numbers go to 114 nods and 21 Academy victories.

Due to this research, I’m writing 4 blog posts dedicated to each acting race and we begin with Best Actor:

The leading man category makes up 33 out of the 110 nominations with 6 wins. The victorious gentlemen are as follows:

Jeff Bridges, the main baddie in Iron Man, won in 2009 for Crazy Heart

William Hurt, who appeared in The Incredible Hulk and other MCU titles, took Best Actor in 1985 for Kiss of the Spider Woman

Anthony Hopkins, aka Thor’s Dad, was stage bound in 1991 for his iconic role as Dr. Hannibal Lecter in The Silence of the Lambs

Ben Kingsley, who sparred with Tony Stark in Iron Man 3, is a 1982 recipient in the title role of Gandhi

Michael Douglas, who appeared in both Ant-Man pics, was Best Actor in 1987 for Wall Street

Forest Whitaker, who costarred in Black Panther, took gold in 2006 for The Last King of Scotland

Aside from the winners, here are the other 27 Actor nods:

Iron Man himself, Robert Downey Jr., for 1992’s Chaplin

Terrence Howard, who was in the first Iron Man, for 2005’s Hustle & Flow

Jeff Bridges scored two additional nominations for 1984’s Starman and 2010’s True Grit

Edward Norton, who was Hulk before Mark Ruffalo, for 1998’s American History X

William Hurt, like fellow winner Bridges, also landed two other nods for 1986’s Children of a Lesser God and 1987’s Broadcast News

Don Cheadle, who replaced Terrence Howard in Iron Man 2 and more, for 2004’s Hotel Rwanda

Mickey Rourke, the villain in Iron Man 2, for 2008’s The Wrestler

Anthony Hopkins, following his Lambs victory, was nominated twice more for 1993’s The Remains of the Day and 1995’s Nixon

Tommy Lee Jones, from Captain America: First Avenger, for 2007’s In the Valley of Elah

Jeremy Renner, aka Hawkeye, for his breakthrough role in 2009’s The Hurt Locker

Robert Redford, who was in Captain America: The Winter Soldier, surprisingly only has one acting nod for 1973’s The Sting. He is, however, a twice nominated director and won in 1980 for Ordinary People 

Bradley Cooper, Rocket in Guardians of the Galaxy, has been nominated thrice with no wins: 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook, 2014’s American Sniper, and 2018’s A Star Is Born

Benedict Cumberbatch, aka Doctor Strange, for 2014’s The Imitation Game

Chiwetel Ejiofor, also in Doctor Strange, for 2013’s 12 Years a Slave

Sylvester Stallone, who popped up in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, for his signature role in 1976’s Rocky

Michael Keaton, the villain in Spider-Man: Homecoming, for 2014’s Birdman

Matt Damon, who had a memorable cameo in Thor: Ragnarok, is twice nominated for 1997’s Good Will Hunting and 2015’s The Martian

Daniel Kaluuya, Black Panther costar, for 2017’s Get Out

Laurence Fishburne, supporting player in Ant-Man and the Wasp, as Ike Turner in 1993’s What’s Love Got to Do With It

Jude Law, from Captain Marvel, for 2003’s Cold Mountain 

Whew. And there you have it. I’ll be back at it shortly with the Best Actress nominees who got their Marvel on!