Tag: The Senior

September 26-28 Box Office Predictions

Leonardo DiCaprio looks to conquer all multiplex foes in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, but faces competition from Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie and The Strangers – Chapter 2. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

One Battle After Another Box Office Prediction
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie Box Office Prediction
The Strangers – Chapter 2 Box Office Prediction

Battle is favored to come out ahead based on major Oscar buzz and star power. I’m projecting high 20s as it looks to leg out impressively in subsequent frames.

Dollhouse is more of a wildcard. Based on a popular Netflix kids show, the mix of live-action and animation could surpass my low 20s estimate and come in 1st under the best case scenario.

I’m not looking for much out of The Strangers. Last year’s predecessor managed to top $10 million out of the gate. I suspect the follow-up will not. It might even fall behind the fourth frame of The Conjuring though I’ll give it the slight benefit of the doubt.

The fresh trio should place 1-3. As for holdovers, The Conjuring: Last Rites may see a smaller decline than Demon Slayer – Kimetsu No Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle or Him.

Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:

1. One Battle After Another

Predicted Gross: $27 million

2. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie

Predicted Gross: $20.3 million

3. The Strangers – Chapter 2

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

4. The Conjuring: Last Rites

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

5. Demon Slayer – Kimetsu No Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

6. Him

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

Box Office Results (September 19-21)

After an explosive record setting premiere for an anime title, Demon Slayer managed to stay atop the charts for a second weekend despite a 75% plummet (not unexpected). It grossed $17.3 million and just topped my $16.2 million call for $104 million thus far.

Sports themed horror pic Him with Marlon Wayans underwhelmed (poor reviews didn’t help) in the runner-spot position with $13.2 million. I was more generous at $20.3 million and thought it would come out on top. Look for about a 60% or more ease in weekend #2.

The Conjuring: Last Rites was third with $12.2 million, on pace with my $12.4 million prediction. The three-week take is $150 million.

Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale was fourth with $6.4 million (I said $6.5 million) for $31 million in two weeks.

The Long Walk rounded out the top five in its sophomore outing with $6.2 million. My guesstimate? $6.2 million! The ten-day gross is $22 million.

A Big Bold Beautiful Journey with Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell, despite its magnetic leads, bombed in sixth with a bleak $3.2 million. I went a bit higher at $4.8 million.

Finally, The Senior from Angel Studios (with an inspiration football theme) was deflated in seventh with $2.6 million compared to my $3.3 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

September 19-21 Box Office Predictions

The box office should come down to Earth a bit this weekend after Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle smashed the opening weekend record for an anime title. We have football themed horror thriller Him starring Marlon Wayans, fantastical drama A Big Bold Beautiful Journey with Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell and football themed inspirational tale The Senior featuring Michael Chiklis opening. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Him Box Office Prediction
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey Box Office Prediction
The Senior Box Office Prediction

Him, from Jordan Peele’s production house, should have bragging rights in 1st position though my low 20s take puts it well behind what other recent horror flicks have achieved.

The other newcomers might not make the top 5. Journey is a head scratcher. As I pointed out in the long post, this is Robbie’s first significant project since Barbie and you’d think there would be more hype. My mid single digits estimate has it in sixth.

As for The Senior, Angel Studios dusted it off after it premiered at a Floridian film festival two years back. Their marketing might get this to mid single digits (if they’re lucky) for seventh place.

Demon Slayer indeed slayed this past weekend (more on that below). These types of anime offerings are typically front loaded and I expect that to be case here. A sophomore drop in the mid to high 70s would give it mid teens and it certainly could repeat in 1st if Him underwhelms.

Being that I’m unconvinced about Journey and The Senior, holdovers The Conjuring: Last Rites, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale and The Long Walk could populate the rest of the high five.

Here’s how I see the top 7 shaking out:

1. Him

Predicted Gross: $20.3 million

2. Demon Slayer: Kimsetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

3. The Conjuring: Last Rites

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

4. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

5. The Long Walk

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

6. A Big Bold Beautiful Journey

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

7. The Senior

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

Box Office Results (September 12-14)

Demon Slayer (I’ve tired of writing the rest of its name) lived up to its late breaking hype with a gargantuan haul of $70.6 million, above my $64.6 million projection. The Crunchyroll release capitalized on unprecedented domestic interest in the genre as it attained the status of an event picture.

The Conjuring: Last Rites, after its own huge start, dropped an understandable 69% to second with $25.6 million. I predicted a tad more at $28.5 million. The two-week tally is a scary good $130 million as it nears the $137 million franchise record held by 2013’s original.

Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale managed to slightly outdo its 2022 predecessor in third with $18.1 million. My guesstimate? $18.1 million! This should also be front loaded and I’m thinking a low to mid 60s fall for this weekend.

Stephen King adaptation The Long Walk was fourth with $11.7 million compared to my $8.7 million call. Solid critical reaction likely helped push it past double digits.

The 30th anniversary re-release of Pixar’s inaugural effort Toy Story rounded out the top five with $3.4 million. I didn’t do a prediction for it. The additional dollars brought its three decade old total to $195 million (or over $400 million stateside adjusted for inflation).

Finally, mockumentary sequel Spinal Tap II: The End Continues flopped in ninth (at least it didn’t go to 11th) with $1.6 million. I was more generous at $3.4 million as interest wasn’t present for the sequel to the classic 1984 original.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Senior Box Office Prediction

Nearly two years after premiering at the Fort Lauderdale Film Festival, The Senior is finally graduating to an actual release on September 19th. Distributed by Angel Studios, it tells the true life story of a 59-year-old (Michael Chiklis) given the chance to play college football. Rod Lurie directs with Mary Stuart Masterson, Brandon Flynn, James Badge Dale and Rob Corddry costarring.

The Senior will not be the biggest grossing gridiron themed debut next weekend due to horror pic Him. It does have a fair shot at outgrossing the weekend’s other new release A Big Bold Beautiful Journey, which sports a higher profile.

Like other Angel titles, a lower to mid single digits start is the likely scenario.

The Senior opening weekend prediction: $3.3 million

For my Him prediction, click here:

Him Box Office Prediction

For my A Big Bold Beautiful Journey prediction, click here:

A Big Bold Beautiful Journey Box Office Prediction