Oscar Predictions: Sirât

Óliver Laxe’s desert set drama Sirât, which premiered at Cannes and won the Jury prize, is a top candidate to be Spain’s submission for International Feature Film. Already out in its home country, Neon snatched up stateside distribution rights with a probable fall premiere. Sergi López, Bruno Núñez Arjona, Richard Bellamy, Stefania Gadda, Joshua Liam Henderson, Tonin Janvier, and Jade Oukid star.

In my first round of predictions for the international race two days ago, I had Sirât in sixth and therefore barely missing inclusion. Spain has had a spotty record in the 21st century getting their pictures nominated. 2004’s The Sea Inside is the sole winner and the other nominees were Pain and Glory from 2019 and Society of the Snow two years ago.

With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 82 Metacritic, the critical appreciation is present. Neon’s campaign will be key as they also have heavy hitters Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, and The Secret Agent in contention. Not all the IFF nominees can be Neon… right?? My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Society of the Snow

J.A. Bayona’s Society of the Snow served as the closing night feature at the Venice Film Festival earlier this month and, as expected, has been submitted by Spain as their Oscar hopeful for International Feature Film. The survival drama is expected to be streaming on Netflix by year’s end. It tells the real life tale of Uruguayan Flight 571’s crash in the Andes Mountains in 1972. Bayona is no stranger to disaster dramas with 2012’s The Impossible, which nabbed Naomi Watts a Best Actress nod. His last pic was 2018’s dino sequel Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom.

Based on a small sampling (9 reviews), Snow has lodged a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score. Spain has had a spotty record getting their selections into the final five with the Academy. In the 21st century, The Sea Inside was the 2004 winner and 2019’s Pain and Glory was nominated. That’s where their luck ends.

I currently have Snow at #7 in IFF. Its chances are decent and getting a lot of eyeballs via Netflix should only assist. If I’m betting now, however, I’ll say it makes the shortlist and not the ultimate quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Alcarras

Alcarras is the sophomore directorial from Carla Simon and the Spanish family drama topped The Beasts and Lullaby to become the nation’s submission for Best International Feature Film at the Oscars. It debuted earlier this year at the Berlin Film Festival where it won the Golden Bear (the fest’s highest honor). Simon’s 2017 debut Summer of 1993 was also Spain’s selection for the Academy to consider, but it didn’t end up making the final five.

Could Alcarras? With an 88% Rotten Tomatoes rating and the hardware from Germany, it’s possible. Yet it faces hurdles. While the bulk of reviews are recommendations, some of them aren’t raves. Pics such as All Quiet on the Western Front, Decision to Leave, and Close are likely nominees for IFF so there’s not many slots to go around.

Spain has seen two movies in the 21st century contend for the foreign derby: 2004’s The Sea Inside (which won) and 2019’s Pain and Glory. It’s feasible that Alcarras could be the third though I have it on the outside looking in currently. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…