Tag: The Running Man

December 5-7 Box Office Predictions

Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 looks to challenge Zootopia 2 for box office supremacy as anime offering Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution is also unveiled. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers for the post Thanksgiving frame here:

Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 Box Office Prediction
Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution Box Office Prediction

I am not sold on Freddy’s 2 despite its predecessor’s sizzling $80 million start two years ago. As I explained in my write-up, I suspect a decent portion of its fanbase won’t turn up and my mid to high 30s take gives it runner-up status.

As for Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution, the genre has been on fire lately but this pre-screening of the TV show’s forthcoming third season may settle for fourth place and mid single digits.

Considering my reservations about Freddy’s, that would leave Zootopia 2 in first after an impressive premiere (more on that below). A mid 50s drop should be on the way.

Wicked: For Good‘s third frame decline could be even more pronounced for third position while Now You See Me: Now You Don’t should complete the top five in a sequel heavy lineup.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $43.1 million

2. Five Nights at Freddy’s 2

Predicted Gross: $36.5 million

3. Wicked: For Good

Predicted Gross: $23.2 million

4. Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

5. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

Box Office Results (November 28-30)

Zootopia 2, as projected, easily managed the second best Turkey weekend opening behind Disney’s Moana 2 from last year. It also scored huge in China which helped contribute to it having the best animated worldwide debut of all time and the fourth best overall. With $100.2 million from Friday to Sunday and $158.8 million domestically since Wednesday, it did fall below my respective takes of $112.4 million and $184.3 million. Admittedly I took the over.

I should’ve taken the under on Wicked: For Good. A year ago, part 1 eased a mere 28% in its Thanksgiving sophomore outing. The follow-up fell 58% to $61.7 million while I called for $82 million. Nevertheless its two-week tally stands at a soaring $269 million.

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t was third in weekend #3 with $6.9 million, a tad ahead of my $6.2 million prediction for $49 million thus far.

Predator: Badlands was fourth in its fourth go-round with $4.8 million (I said $4.6 million). The franchise entry has $85 million in its coffers as it should come close to nine digits stateside.

The Running Man rounded out the top five with $3.7 million, in line with my $3.4 million forecast for an underwhelming $34 million in three weeks.

Finally, rom com Eternity with Miles Teller and Elizabeth Olsen was sixth out of the gate with $3.1 million over the traditional weekend and $5.2 million since Wednesday. That’s in range with my respective takes of $3 million and $4.4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

November 28-30 Box Office Predictions

Zootopia 2 seeks to rule the Thanksgiving box office while rom com Eternity opens and will just try and make the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Zootopia 2 Box Office Prediction
Eternity Box Office Prediction

Disney’s sequel to their 2016 Oscar-winning animated feature should easily the eclipse the $75 million debut of what came nine years ago. Zootopia 2 appears on track for the second highest Turkey frame behind the Mouse House’s own Moana 2 from last year.

As for Eternity, the heaven set pic with Miles Teller and Elizabeth Olsen may struggle out of the (pearly) gates on approximately 1500 screens. My projection leaves it outside the top five.

Speaking of the high five, I’m doing not doing an official estimate for Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery. The third entry in Rian Johnson’s murder mystery series with Daniel Craig, it is slated for selected theaters prior to its December 12th Netflix bow. Three years ago, predecessor Glass Onion kicked off over the same holiday frame in nearly 700 venues. Though Netflix doesn’t officially report its numbers, figures of just over $9 million (three-day) and $13 million (five-day) were unofficially given for that rollout prior to its streaming start. Because hard figures aren’t revealed (and due to uncertainty about Wake‘s actual screen count), I’m not projecting it. That said, don’t be surprised if the unofficial tally reveals a third place showing with similar grosses to Onion. Got all that?

Moving to the holdovers, Wicked: For Good flew high with 2025’s second largest opening (more on that below). The first Wicked premiered in the same weekend in 2024 and dropped a mere 28% over Thanksgiving. The likelihood is that For Good is more front loaded and it may ease in the low to mid 40s for what would essentially be the same numbers for its sophomore play.

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t, Predator: Badlands, and The Running Man should all move down a slot and here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $112.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $184.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Wicked: For Good

Predicted Gross: $82 million

3. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

4. Predator: Badlands

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

5. The Running Man

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

6. Eternity

Predicted Gross: $3 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

Box Office Results (November 21-23)

Wicked: For Good may not have completely defied prognostications, but its $147 million debut is second only to A Minecraft Movie for the year. Part 2 of the witchy and wizardly saga didn’t match my $158.1 million call though it managed to outshine the $112.5 million achieved by part 1.

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t dropped to second with $8.9 million, in line with my $9.4 million prediction. The magic themed threequel has made off with $36 million.

Predator: Badlands was third in week 3 with $6.5 million compared to my $5.9 million take. It is up to $76 million overall.

In fourth position, The Running Man stumbled a steep 65% in weekend 2 with $5.7 million (I said $6.7 million) for just $26 million thus far.

Rental Family with Brendan Fraser, despite appreciative reviews and word-of-mouth, was fifth with a ho-hum $3.3 million. That is slightly above my $2.9 million estimate.

Finally, Finnish action sequel Sisu: Road to Revenge was sixth with an unimpressive $2.4 million. I gave it more credit at $4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

November 21-23 Box Office Predictions

Wicked: For Good sweeps in to rule the box office and it could compete for 2025’s biggest domestic opening. We also have Finnish action sequel Sisu: Road to Revenge and Japan set dramedy Rental Family making their debuts and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Wicked: For Good Box Office Prediction
Sisu: Road to Revenge Box Office Prediction
Rental Family Box Office Prediction

The second part of Wicked is expected to easily swoosh past the $112 million opening of part 1 last year. The real question is whether it eclipses the $162 million start of A Minecraft Movie which currently holds the record for the year. I have falling just behind.

Sisu: Road to Revenge should manage to top the $3.3 million out of the gate that its predecessor achieved in 2023, but perhaps not by much. My mid single digits projection puts it in fifth.

Rental Family with Oscar winner Brendan Fraser hasn’t been able to generate much buzz despite mostly solid reviews. I have it struggling in sixth place.

Holdovers should populate slots 2-4. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t scored a surprise #1 showing (more on that below). If it drops in range with Now You See Me 2 from nine years ago, it could fall below $10 million for the runner-up spot. The second weekend of The Running Man and third frame of Predator: Badlands could see similar numbers battling for third.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Wicked: For Good

Predicted Gross: $158.1 million

2. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

3. The Running Man

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

4. Predator: Badlands

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

5. Sisu: Road to Revenge

Predicted Gross: $4 million

6. Rental Family

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (November 14-16)

As mentioned, threequel Now You See Me: Now You Don’t easily ruled the charts with a better than anticipated $21 million compared to my $17.1 million prediction. While it’s the lowest opening of the franchise (falling under the original’s $29 million and part two’s $22 million), the #1 posting was an unexpected development.

That’s because many prognosticators, including me, figured The Running Man with Glen Powell might manage bragging rights. Yet the sci-fi remake took in only $16.4 million for second, under my $19.6 million estimate.

Another projection I missed is that I thought Predator: Badlands wouldn’t experience the hefty sophomore decline of other pics in the franchise. However, it plummeted 68% to $12.7 million. I was far more generous at $18.2 million. The two-week tally is still an impressive $66 million.

Regretting You was fourth with $3.7 million and I was higher at $5 million. The four-week take is $44 million.

Black Phone 2 rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. In its fifth week, it earned $2.6 million to bring its total to $74 million.

Keeper from Osgood Perkins was right behind in sixth with $2.5 million (I said $3.2 million). The horror flick couldn’t attract its intended audience.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: The Running Man

The Running Man is tracking to open atop the box office this weekend with Glen Powell in the title role. The futuristic action thriller remakes the 1987 original starring Arnold Schwarzenegger, itself was based on a 1982 Stephen King novel. Edgar Wright directs with a supporting cast including William H. Macy, Lee Pace, Michael Cera, Emilia Jones, Daniel Ezra, Jayme Lawson, Colman Domingo, and Josh Brolin.

Reviews aren’t as encouraging as what greeted last weekend’s Predator: Badlands (another effort with roots in Ah-nuld 80s releases). Rotten Tomatoes is at 66% with 59 on Metacritic. Like Badlands, the only awards race worth mentioning for Running is Visual Effects. Nothing from the early reaction indicates it has any realistic shot at contending there. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

November 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (11/12): I am downgrading my The Running Man estimate from $27.6 million to $19.6 million as reviews and word-of-mouth have stalled momentum; I am downgrading my Keeper estimate from $6.5 million to $3.2 million

The Running Man looks steal the box office crown as heist threequel Now You See Me: Now You Don’t and horror pic Keeper debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

The Running Man Box Office Prediction
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t Box Office Prediction
Keeper Box Office Prediction

Based on the Stephen King novel, sci-fi action satire The Running Man also serves as a remake of the 1987 pic with Glen Powell taking over starring duties from Arnold Schwarzenegger. I don’t think it reaches the heights of Predator: Badlands from this past weekend (more on that below), but it should place 1st in the low to mid 20s.

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t includes Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, and Morgan Freeman reprising their roles from 2013 and 2016 predecessors. That’s a lengthy layover from part 2 to 3 and the second one didn’t match the original in terms of cash. I anticipate the drop-off will continue and I have See in third.

Keeper could overperform as horror titles often do, but I’m going mid single digits for a fourth place showing for the latest genre effort from the prolific Osgood Perkins.

It will be interesting to see the sophomore frame percentage decline for Predator: Badlands. 2010’s Predators and 2018’s The Predator each debuted in the mid 20s (far below this one). They plummeted 72% and 63% respectively in their follow-up outings. The film in the franchise that performed similarly to Badlands (2004’s AVP: Alien Vs. Predator) saw a 68% dip. However, I don’t see this falling that far due to its A- Cinemascore (the strongest of the lot). Mid 50s seems more likely.

Regretting You, which showed impressive staying power last weekend, should round out the top five and here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. The Running Man

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

2. Predator: Badlands

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million

3. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million

4. Regretting You

Predicted Gross: $5 million

6. Keeper

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (November 7-9)

It took a nearly 40-year-old franchise to wake up the box office and showed that the series wasn’t over the hill as Predator: Badlands amassed $40 million. Solid word-of-mouth and positive reviews helped propel it to the highest start of the nine pictures when not adjusting for inflation. This easily eclipsed my $27.6 million prediction.

Regretting You, as mentioned, slid a teensy 15% in weekend #3 to $6.6 million compared to my $4.8 million call. The romantic drama is plugging along with $38 million thus far.

Black Phone 2 dropped from 1st to 3rd as it received $5.1 million, in line with my $4.6 million projection. The sequel has taken in $70 million after four weeks.

The inspirational early 20th century set drama Sarah’s Oil, which includes Zachary Levi among its cast, was my surprise of the weekend. It placed fourth with $4.2 million and I didn’t do a guesstimate. Scoring a rare A+ Cinemascore grade, Oil could hold up well in the coming weeks.

Historical courtroom drama Nuremberg with Oscar winners Russell Crowe and Rami Malek rounded out the top five with $3.8 million, managing to outdo my $3 million take.

Bugonia was sixth in weekend #2 at $3.4 million (ahead of my $2.7 million prediction) for $12 million after two weeks of wide release.

Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc finished seventh with $3.4 million (I said $2.9 million) as the anime hit stands at $37 million after three weeks.

Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson’s drama Die, My Love debuted in eighth with $2.6 million, on pace with my $2.5 million estimate.

Finally, boxing biopic Christy with Sydney Sweeney was KO’d in 11th with just $1.3 million. I was more generous at $2.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Running Man Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (11/12): I am downgrading my estimate from $27.6 million to $19.6 million as reviews and word-of-mouth have seemingly stalled momentum

Paramount hopes audiences are game for The Running Man when it debuts November 14th. The sci-fi action flick casts Glen Powell in a role that Arnold Schwarzenegger played in the 1987 original. Based on a Stephen King novel, costars include Josh Brolin, Colman Domingo, Lee Pace, Jayme Lawson, Michael Cera, Emilia Jones, Daniel Ezra, and William H. Macy. Edgar Wright directs. This is the second 2025 adaptation of a dystopian tale written under King’s pseudonym Richard Bachman behind The Long Walk.

Following Predator: Badlands by a week (another Ah-nuld adjacent release), Running hopes to pick up speed based on Powell’s star power and decent early word-of-mouth. The original isn’t exactly considered a classic, but it has a solid cult B-movie reputation. I don’t think this reaches near $40 million like Badlands. Low to mid 20s seems more likely.

The Running Man opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million

For my Now You See Me: Now You Don’t prediction, click here:

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t Box Office Prediction

For my Keeper prediction, click here:

Keeper Box Office Prediction

Guilty Pleasures: The Running Man

The former Governors of California and Minnesota, the original host of “Family Feud”, a Hall of Fame Cleveland Browns running back, the drummer of Fleetwood Mac, and the son of Frank Zappa in a movie based on a work of Stephen King? Yes, it exists and it’s the fun guilty pleasure that it sounds like. We’re talking about The Running Man from 1987 and it’s kind of the original down and dirty Hunger Games 25 years before Katniss and company graced the silver screen.

Released in the same year as his genuine classic Predator, Arnold Schwarzenegger stars in this science fiction entry set in the far off future year of 2017. The pic imagines that time as a police state where accused criminals are chased down for sport before a live TV audience on a show hosted by a nefarious character played by real life Feud host Richard Dawson. The supporting cast includes aforementioned folks like Jesse Ventura, Jim Brown, Mick Fleetwood, and Dweezil Zappa.

Let there be no mistake – this is strictly B movie stuff and it doesn’t deserve to mentioned in the same breath as true Arnold classics like The Terminator, Predator and Total Recall. Yet this cinematic junk food is a lot more of a good time than it ought to be and that’s why it easily qualifies as a true guilty pleasure.