Tag: The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

97th Academy Awards Predictions: January 10th Edition

Though it’s been less than two weeks since my previous Oscar forecast, a lot has occurred in that relatively short time frame. The Golden Globes aired. The BAFTA long lists were unveiled. SAG Awards nominations came out as did the DGA. These developments and more (including various critics groups announcing winners) have reshaped the race as we approach Oscar nomination morning.

Those nominations will be known on Sunday, January 19th. That is two days after the planned January 17th announcement and the delay was made due to the wildfires ravaging southern California. This is no surprise as the fires have also delayed PGA nominations and the airdate of the Critics Choice Awards.

The first Oscar predictions of 2025 will be my penultimate one and the last one that ranks contenders in the various categories. My plan is to have my final predictions up on Wednesday, January 15th.

So what are the biggest developments over the last few days? Demi Moore’s Golden Globe victory in Actress (Musical or Comedy) for The Substance causes me to elevate her to #1 in my Actress rankings over Mikey Madison (Anora), who had been perched in the top position for many weeks. The Directors Guild usually matches the Oscars 4 for 5, but the fact that they left off Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) helps cement his Oscar exclusion. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), fresh off his Globe victory, returns to #1 position over Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) who missed at SAG.

There are performers who could benefit from SAG love. They include Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis from The Last Showgirl, Jonathan Bailey in Wicked, and Jeremy Strong from The Apprentice. There are snubbed performers from SAG or who lost at the Globes whose Oscar inclusion seems more doubtful. The most notable example is Angelina Jolie (Maria) but the list also includes Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II), and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).

Indeed the Best Actress derby has been dramatically reshaped with Moore elevating from 3rd to 1st, Jolie dropping from 2nd to 6th, and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) entering my predicted quintet over Jolie and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths).

More changes are present in Supporting Actor as Yura Borisov (Anora) enters my five with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) out. I have Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) still clinging to a nod though Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) appears hot on his heels.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Anora (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)

6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sing Sing (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)

12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (+2)

13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-1)

14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (E)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)

8. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)

10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (E)

10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A Different Man

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-2)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hit Man

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Kneecap (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Flow (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Universal Language (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Dahomey (PR: 10) (+1)

10. From Ground Zero (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)

9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)

10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)

4. Daughters (PR: 4) (E)

5. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)

7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Dahomey (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Union (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Hollywoodgate (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Conclave (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (+1)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Maria (PR: 4) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Wicked

Best Costume Design

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Substance (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)

10. September 5 (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Nickel Boys

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)

4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 8) (E)

9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Challengers (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Emila Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Nosferatu (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Blitz (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)

4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)

7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Emila Pérez (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Wild Robot (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Alien: Romulus (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Better Man (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alien: Romulus (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Twisters (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)

That works out to these movies receiving these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

10 Nominations

The Brutalist

9 Nominations

Conclave

8 Nominations

Wicked

6 Nominations

Anora, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two

5 Nominations

The Substance

4 Nominations

Gladiator II, Nosferatu

3 Nominations

Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

I’m Still Here, A Real Pain, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

All We Imagine as Light, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Porcelain War, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

97th Academy Awards Predictions: December 30th Edition

These are last Oscar predictions in calendar year 2024 and I’ll likely do the final forecast on Tuesday, January 14th before the nominations are revealed on Friday, January 17th. It got me wondering how accurate my projections were for the 96th Academy Awards covering 2023 at this point in the calendar. Turns out… I did a post on December 29th of last year. The results? That’s what I’ll focus on in this write-up while giving you my predictions for the next broadcast.

The quick version is that my December 29th, 2023 forecast yielded 79 of the eventual 105 nominees. That’s not far off from my eventual tally of 84 of 105 when the announcements were made in January 2024. This includes 10 for 10 (!) in Best Picture and 5 for 5 in Makeup & Hairstyling. I went 4 for 5 in 10 other competitions while getting 3 for 5 in eight other competitions. There wasn’t one category where I didn’t have the winner listed as a nominee… except for in Visual Effects (we’ll get to that at the bottom).

Let’s get to it with some chatter about my performance in the previous year to use a potential context for what’s to come.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Substance (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)

13. September 5 (PR: 12) (-1)

14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

10 for 10 on the Best Picture nominees and that includes listing eventual victor Oppenheimer at #1.

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)

9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)

10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jon M. Chu, Wicked

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5 and I correctly had Christopher Nolan’s direction of Oppenheimer listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Greta Gerwig (Barbie) in over Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), who was listed in 8th position.

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2.Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Eventual winner Emma Stone (Poor Things) was listed in 2nd after Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). I incorrectly had Greta Lee (Past Lives) nominated over Annette Bening (Nyad), who I had listed in ninth.

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. I had the winner Cillian Murphy of Oppenheimer listed second after Bradley Cooper from Maestro. Where I went wrong – I had Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) nominated over my #6 Colman Domingo (Rustin).

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Joan Chen, Dídi

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. I correctly had Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – Julianne Moore (May December) and Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) in over Jodie Foster for Nyad (who I had in sixth) and America Ferrera in Barbie (who was 8th at that time).

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29 –

4 for 5. I correctly had Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) listed in first. Where I went wrong – I had Charles Melton (May December) being nominated over #7 Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction.

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

5. September 5 (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)

8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (E)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (E)

10. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Challengers

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Winner The Holdovers was listed 2nd while I had Barbie ranked 1st. It would be moved into Adapted Screenplay shortly thereafter. Where I went wrong – listing Barbie instead of #7 Maestro.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)

7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (-1)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wicked (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. Per above, I had Barbie listed in Original instead of Adapted at that time. Winner American Fiction was slotted fourth. Where I went wrong – having Killers of the Flower Moon and All of Us Strangers instead of Barbie and #6 The Zone of Interest.

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)

5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Universal Language (PR: 9) (+2)

8. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Flow (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Dahomey (PR: 6) (-4)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. The Zone of Interest was correctly listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – The Taste of Things was predicted over #9 lo capitano.

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)

9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)

10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Winner The Boy and the Heron was listed in 2nd. Where I went wrong – predicting The Peasants over #10 Robot Dreams.

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Daughters (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-1)

8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. 20 Days in Mariupol was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – Beyond Utopia and American Symphony were predicted over #9 Bobi Wine: The People’s President and unranked To Kill a Tiger.

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maria (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Anora

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest nominated over #10 El Conde.

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: 7) (-3)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed in 2nd (behind Barbie). Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)

7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Challengers (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Air and Barbie nominated over #6 The Holdovers and #8 Anatomy of a Fall.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

5 for 5! Winner Poor Things was listed second behind Maestro.

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Challengers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest and The Boy and the Heron nominated over #10 American Fiction and the unranked Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie was correctly in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had “Road to Freedom” from Rustin and “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple nominated over #6 “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony and #9 “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)

9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed 2nd behind Barbie. Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

7. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. I had winner The Zone of Interest listed fourth. Where I went wrong – Ferrari and Napoleon being nominated over #8 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 The Creator.

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wicked (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)

7. Better Man (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. My #4 Godzilla Minus One won. Where I went wrong – this is the one category where my #1 (Poor Things) ended up not getting nominated. That’s in addition to having Society of the Snow getting in. #7 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 Napoleon made the cut instead.

Whew. And that leaves the following pictures garnering these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

10 Nominations

The Brutalist

9 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

8 Nominations

Conclave

7 Nominations

Wicked

5 Nominations

Anora, The Substance

4 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II, Sing Sing

3 Nominations

Maria, Nickel Boys

2 Nominations

The Girl with the Needle, Nosferatu, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

Alien: Romulus, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

97th Academy Awards Predictions: December 22nd Edition

My latest Oscar forecast follows the reveals for shortlists earlier this week where we now know the 15 finalists in International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, and Original Song. We were also given the 20 hopefuls in Original Score and ten pictures standing in Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. I covered my reaction to the shortlists here:

2024 Oscar Shortlists Reaction

Best Sound is the category most altered by the announcement of ten finalists. The Brutalist, which clings to my #1 ranking in Best Picture, falls out of Sound altogether while A Complete Unknown rises two spots to third position. That’s not the only significant development for the Bob Dylan biopic starring Timothée Chalamet. Three days before its opening, I have Unknown in my BP ten for the first time and that’s at the expense of A Real Pain. That’s not all. Edward Norton’s performance as Pete Seeger in the movie enters the Supporting Actor quintet with Yura Borisov (Anora) now on the outside looking in.

In Best Actress, that pesky fifth slot goes back to Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) over Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths.

You can read all the movement below as I now have Emilia Pérez leading all nominees with 11 to The Brutalist‘s 10. I’ll have another update up post Christmas and pre-New Year’s!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Substance (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sing Sing (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (-1)

12. September 5 (PR: 13) (+1)

13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-1)

14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR; 6) (E)

7. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. September 5 (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)

8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (E)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (E)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-1)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wicked (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)

5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Kneecap (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Flow (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Universal Language (PR: 9) (E)

10. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)

10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Daughters (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Dahomey (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)

7. Union (PR: 7) (E)

8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (E)

9. Porcelain War (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maria (PR: 8) (+4)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Challengers

Wicked

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Maria (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Blitz (PR: 10) (+3)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (E)

10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)

5. September 5 (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Challengers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Substance (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Wicked (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. A Different Man (PR: 4 (E)

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emila Pérez (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Waltzing with Brando (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sasquatch Sunset

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+2)

4. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (E)

5. Challengers (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nickel Boys

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (+2)

7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Forbidden Road” from Better Man

“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl

“Better Way to Live” from Kneecap

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Substance

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Blitz (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-3)

7. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Brutalist

Nosferatu

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

The Substance

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Better Man (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Substance

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

And that works out to the following numbers of nominations for these films:

11 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

10 Nominations

The Brutalist

8 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, Wicked

7 Nominations

Conclave

5 Nominations

Anora, Sing Sing, The Substance

4 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II

3 Nominations

Maria, Nickel Boys, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

The Girl with the Needle, Nosferatu, A Real Pain, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

1 Nomination

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

2024 Oscar Shortlists Reaction

Every year in December, we get a clearer picture of several races at the forthcoming Oscars when shortlists are unveiled. For feature-length categories, this applies to International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Original Score, Original Song, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. In Score, we are given a list of 20 finalists in contention. For Song it’s 15. Same goes for the foreign and doc derbies. For the other 3 down-the-line competitions, we are given the standing 10 hopefuls. When nominations are eventually announced, all of these races will be whittled down to the final five.

Let’s walk through all seven of the shortlisted categories with some commentary, shall we?

Best International Feature Film

Shortlisted Movies: Armand, Dahomey, Emilia Pérez, Flow, From Ground Zero, The Girl with the Needle, How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, Santosh, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Touch, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Waves

There weren’t any major surprises as my top 10 IFF contenders from my previous update all made the cut. The additional five are Armand (which has been in my 10 before), From Ground Zero, Santosh, Touch, and Waves. Mexico’s Sujo and Japan’s Cloud are somewhat notable omissions.

Best Documentary Feature

Shortlisted Movies: The Bibi Files, Black Box Diaries, Dahomey, Daughters, Eno, Frida, Hollywoodgate, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Queendom, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Union, Will & Harper

Nine of my previous ten docs are in with the other six being The Bibi Files, Eno, Frida, Hollywoodgate, Porcelain War, and Queendom. The only missing entry was my #9 from last weekend – Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story. It’s not out of character for the doc branch to leave off some of higher profile titles.

Best Original Score

Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Babygirl, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Blink Twice, Blitz, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Fire Inside, Gladiator II, Horizon: American Saga – Chapter 1, Inside Out 2, Nosferatu, The Room Next Door, Sing Sing, The Six Triple Eight, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Young Woman and the Sea

Like in IFF, all ten of my contenders remain intact with another 10 in the mix. So while there’s no huge shockers, Queer and Saturday Night were expected to show up here.

Best Original Song

Shortlisted Songs: “Beyond” from Moana 2, “Compress/Repress” from Challengers, “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez, “Forbidden Road” from Better Man, “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper, “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight, “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing, “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez, “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late, “Out of Oklahoma” from Twisters, “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece, “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap, “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King, “Winter Coat” from Blitz

The songs that got in for Twisters, Kneecap, and Mufasa were not the tunes I would’ve predicted for that trio. In my top ten from last weekend, I had “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap. In a notable snub, Miley Cyrus’s “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl (a Globe nominee) is out.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Shortlisted Movies: The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu, The Substance, Walking with Brando, Wicked

In one of the larger twists, the little-seen Waltzing with Brando dances into this category. My number 8 Sasquatch Sunset and 9 Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga don’t get in. Furiosa had a bad day as it was blanked from this, Score, and the next two categories.

Best Sound

Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Wicked, The Wild Robot

Here’s where I had the most misses and this is the only place where a predicted nominee fails to show. That would be my #4 The Brutalist. There’s also Nosferatu (8th), Furiosa (9th), and The Substance (10th) not in contention. Alien had a good day by the way while The Substance only made it in Makeup (which it could win).

Best Visual Effects

Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Civil War, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Mufasa: The Lion King, Twisters, Wicked

I would’ve thought Civil War had a stronger chance in Sound, but it’s here along with Alien instead of my #7 The Substance and #10 Furiosa.

Bottom line: there’s no jaw dropping snubs in my view like there have been in some past years. Yet now we can probably safely assume Furiosa has no road to any Oscar nominations unless the Production Design branch bails it out (unlikely).

97th Academy Awards Predictions: December 1st Edition

As December dawns, my first Oscar predictions in two weeks have substantial changes for us to mull over. It begins with Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance as I have put it in my Best Picture top ten where it had yet to be listed. I still have reservations about including it. This is not the type of genre material that Academy voters usually go for. However, it has its vocal admirers and is one of the most buzzed about pictures of 2024.

The love for The Substance doesn’t stop there. Fourteen days ago, I had it pegged for only a single nomination in Makeup and Hairstyling. Now I have it nabbing five other mentions: Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, and Film Editing.

My BP inclusion for The Substance knocks out Steve McQueen’s Blitz. In fact, Blitz has fallen the most in my estimation in recent days. Two weeks ago, I had it achieving five nods. Now I have it only managing a Best Sound mention.

In Director, Fargeat’s rise puts Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) on the outside looking in. There are two newbies in Best Actress: the aforementioned Demi Moore and Cynthia Erivo from the massively successful Wicked. Their additions subtract Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun) and Amy Adams (Nightbitch).

Speaking of Wicked, Ariana Grande is now in my Supporting Actress quintet and that takes out… Saoirse Ronan for Blitz. That means that I went from projecting Ronan as a double nominee to none.

There are no changes in my Actor and Supporting Actor lineups. I will note that the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown has started industry screenings while the review embargo hasn’t lifted. The early buzz indicates that Timothée Chalamet is looking solid for a nom while its chances elsewhere are shakier.

You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update available in mid-December!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Substance (PR: 13) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Blitz (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (E)

15. A Complete Unknown (PR: 15) (E)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Robert Eggers, Nosferatu

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Kinglsey Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Mescal, Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Substance (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)

8. September 5 (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)

10. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hit Man (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (E)

10. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A Complete Unknown

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kneecap (PR: 6) (E)

7. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Universal Language (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Dahomey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Armand (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Grand Tour

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

7. Transformers One (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Chicken for Linda! (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Savages

Spellbound

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sugarcane (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Union (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daughters (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Dahomey (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A New Kind of Wilderness (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Separated

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Anora (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Blitz (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maria (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Conclave (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Emila Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Substance (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Substance (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Wicked (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. A Different Man (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 6) (E)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Conclave (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Challengers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (E)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Nosferatu

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 7) (+4)

4. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Harper & Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Beyond” from Moana 2

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maria (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Blitz (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Conclave (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Twisters (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Better Man (PR: 6) (E)

7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

The Brutalist

8 Nominations

Conclave, Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

Wicked

6 Nominations

Sing Sing, The Substance

5 Nominations

Anora, Gladiator II

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

Maria, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

1 Nomination

Black Box Diaries, Blitz, A Complete Unknown, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Union, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

97th Academy Awards Predictions: November 17th Edition

My first Oscar predictions in two weeks and it’s about what narratives I’m buying and which ones I’m selling. For example, I’m currently not sold that Paramount’s September 5 is the contender that some other prognosticators think it is.

On the flip side, I am starting to buy that Conclave is on the rise. The Focus Features effort from Edward Berger is performing well at the box office for an adult skewering drama. I think it has to a shot to win the big prize and that’s why you’ll see it elevated in multiple categories.

While my BP and directorial and Best Actress lineups are unchanged as far as hopefuls, Daniel Craig (Queer) returns to my Actor quintet at the expense of Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice). In Supporting Actor, it is the same five but Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is perched atop the list for the first time. In Supporting Actress, I’m banking on Isabella Rossellini potentially riding that Conclave goodwill and that leaves Ariana Grande (Wicked) on the outside looking in.

You can read all the movement below and the next update should arrive on Thanksgiving weekend!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Conclave (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Real Pain (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Substance (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+1)

15. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 8) (+2)

7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Steve McQueen, Blitz

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)

7. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

John Magaro, September 5

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Substance (PR: 9) (+3)

7. September 5 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Blitz (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Hit Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Universal Language (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

9. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Grand Tour (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Armand

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Spellbound (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Most Precious of Cargoes

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daughters (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Union (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Separated (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Gaucho Gaucho

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Anora (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Blitz (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (E)

8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Substance (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)

4. A Different Man (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wicked (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Beyond” from Moana 2 (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Blitz (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 4) (E)

4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Twisters (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Civil War

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Twisters (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Better Man (PR: 6) (E)

7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Here

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

9 Nominations

The Brutalist, Conclave

6 Nominations

Wicked

5 Nominations

Anora, Blitz, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Sing Sing

3 Nominations

A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, Saturday Night, The Substance, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Oscar Predictions: The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Focusing on an online gamer and his fight with muscular dystrophy, Benjamin Ree directs the documentary The Remarkable Life of Ibelin. It was released on Netflix last month after premiering at the Sundance Film Festival earlier this year. In Utah, it was the recipient of the World Documentary Audience Award.

With a 98% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 78 on Metacritic, Ibelin is already in contention for the Critics Choice Documentary Awards Best Feature (where there are 10 nominees), Director, Score, and Editing. All of that could be a recipe for a Documentary Feature nod at the Oscars if it makes the shortlist. I’ve yet to place it in my top five, but it’s been mentioned in the top 10 of possibilities. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

97th Academy Awards Predictions: November 3rd Edition

My votes are in for my latest Oscar predictions at the 97th Academy Awards and I’ve elected to elevate Wicked into my BP top ten with Gladiator II sliding out. This is based on buzz for early screenings and I will readily admit that sometimes those viewings can elicit exaggerated reactions. We’ll see if Wicked sticks around in a way that Gladiator II didn’t (the two pics both open November 22nd).

In other movement, Edward Berger (Conclave) is back in my directorial quintet with RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) on the outside looking in. The five spot in Best Actor switches to Sebastian Stan playing a certain 45th POTUS with Daniel Craig (Queer) slipping. Ariana Grande’s witchy Wicked work enters the Supporting Actress derby with Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) falling to sixth place. In Supporting Actor, on the other hand, Conclave’s Stanley Tucci re-enters with Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) now out. You can peruse all the activity below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Blitz (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

11. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-3)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-1)

13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Substance (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Room Next Door

September 5

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)

8. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ridley Scott, Gladiator II

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

5. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (E)

3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-2)

10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Blitz (PR: 6) (-1)

8. September 5 (PR: 4) (-4)

9. The Substance (PR: 9) (E)

10. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

His Three Daughters

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (E)

5. Universal Language (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Kneecap (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Grand Tour (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Armand (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (E)

4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5 (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Orion and the Dark

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Union (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daughters (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dahomey (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anora (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Maria (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Maria (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (E)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 10 (E)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Gladiator II

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Substance (PR: 4) (+2)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)

7. Maria (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Challengers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emila Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+4)

4. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 6) (-2)

9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Beyond” from Moana 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)

5. Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)

10. Civil War (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Brutalist

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Twisters (PR: 4) (E)

5. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Better Man (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Wicked (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (E)

10. Here (PR: 5) (-5)

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez

8 Nominations

Conclave

6 Nominations

Wicked

5 Nominations

Anora, Blitz, Gladiator II, Sing Sing

3 Nominations

A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

Maria, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Twisters

1 Nomination

The Apprentice, Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, Nosferatu, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, The Substance, Union, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

97th Academy Awards Predictions: October 20th Edition

It’s been two weeks since I’ve updated my predictions in the feature-length categories and developments have occurred. Steve McQueen’s Blitz opened the London Film Festival and its Oscar stock took a hit. While I still have it being nominated in five categories including Picture and Supporting Actress (Saoirse Ronan), it falls out of my high five in Director and Original Screenplay, among others.

Another significant screening was the industry’s first look at Gladiator II a month before it debuts. With the caveat that these previews are often hyperbolic, the 24 years in the making sequel’s fortunes improved. I now have it contending for seven statues including Best Picture. Its rise causes The Room Next Door to drop out of my 10 BP hopefuls. Denzel Washington also re-enters my Supporting Actor picks with Stanley Tucci (Conclave) now on the outside looking in.

In Director, Blitz‘s McQueen is out in favor of RaMell Ross of Nickel Boys. I’ve put Daniel Craig back in my Actor quintet at the expense of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice (which opened to dismal box office).

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Blitz (PR: 2) (-5)

8. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 14) (+3)

12. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (-3)

13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)

14. September 5 (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Substance (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (-6)

9. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Toni Collette, Juror No. 2

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-2)

10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. September 5 (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

10. His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Dídi

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Queer

A Complete Unknown

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Universal Language (PR: 4) (-2)

7. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Grand Tour (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Kneecap (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Armand (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cloud

Flow

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (E)

4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Wohirrim (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daughters (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Black Box Diaries (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Union (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Sugarcane (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Dahomey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Apocalypse in the Tropics

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 3) (-3)

7. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Blitz (PR: 2) (-5)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

September 5

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 4) (+2)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Substance (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blitz (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Room Next Door

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+8)

2. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+3)

3. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (-6)

8. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Folie à Deux” from Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Visusal Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Twisters (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Better Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

And that all works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

Gladiator II

6 Nominations

Anora, Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Blitz, Conclave

3 Nominations

Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, Wicked

2 Nominations

Maria, Nosferatu, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, September 5, The Substance, Twisters, Union, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 28th Edition

When I did my forecast for the 96th Academy Awards around the same late September time frame last year, it yielded nine of the ten eventual Best Picture nominees. The only miss was not having The Zone of Interest in the hopefuls and I had it ranked 11th in other possibilities. It is also worth noting that eventual winner Oppenheimer was ranked #1.

For Best Director, it was four of five with Christopher Nolan correctly atop my chart. Four of five was also the score for Best Actress and Actor and I had victors Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) in first. For the supporting races, both were 3 out of five. In Supporting Actress, Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) was listed in second while Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) was projected highest in Supporting Actor. In the Screenplay derbies, it was 3 of 5 in each with Adapted recipient American Fiction and Original top finisher Anatomy of a Fall both listed 4th of 5.

That history lesson illustrates that the script for the previous Oscars had largely been written several months before nominations were unveiled. Will the 97th ceremony follow a similar pattern?

It sure doesn’t seem like it. I maintain that there’s no clear frontrunner for BP while Oppenheimer was definitely in that position a year ago. Solid to fair cases could be made for Blitz, The Brutalist, Anora, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, or Dune: Part Two to take gold. There’s also no slam dunks thus far in the acting competitions whereas Downey Jr. was kind of a no-brainer at this juncture and Murphy, Stone, and Randolph were in the 1 or 2 positions in their races.

That makes it all the more intriguing as the 2024 season plays out. The big news this week was that TIFF People’s Choice Winner The Life of Chuck will not open until summer 2025. Therefore you’ll see it drop from contention everywhere I had it listed as a possibility below. Last week, I only had Chuck actually being nominated in Adapted Screenplay. It is replaced by Dune.

I considered elevating the unseen Blitz back to first position in BP, but am giving it to The Brutalist still by a hair. It was announced this week that the latter will release on December 20th via A24. There is one change in BP as I’m putting in Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain for its initial top 10 appearance at the expense of The Room Next Door.

This week I’m also shutting the door on Tilda Swinton in Best Actress for The Room Next Door with Nightbitch‘s Amy Adams returning to the quintet. I went back and forth about whether to include Adams or Babygirl‘s Nicole Kidman.

You can all view all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (E)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A Real Pain (PR: 15) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 14) (+2)

13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)

14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (E)

7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)

9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)

9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Paul Mescal, Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

9. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+3)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (E)

5. Blitz (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)

8. Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+1)

9. September 5 (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Substance (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Queer (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hit Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Vermiglio (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Universal Language (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kneecap (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Caught by the Tides (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

All We Imagine as Light

Pedro Páramo

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Savages (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daughters (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Black Box Diaries (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Separated (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Skywalkers: A Love Story

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maria (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Anora (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Conclave

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Wicked (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Maria (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)

8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Nickel Boys

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Substance (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maria (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

The Room Next Door

The Life of Chuck

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+2)

5. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (E)

8. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

“We’re Back” from Moana 2

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Brutalist (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Civil War

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Blitz (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Better Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)

And that adds up to these numbers generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

Blitz

9 Nominations

The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez

6 Nominations

Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Conclave, Gladiator II

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Real Pain, Saturday Night

2 Nominations

Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nickel Boys, Wicked, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot