Next weekend, ThePromise will attempt to bring in adult moviegoers but could face a serious uphill battle. From HotelRwanda director Terry George, the film is a love triangle set during the Armenian genocide in the early 20th Century. Christian Bale, Oscar Isaac, and Charlotte Le Bon make up aforementioned triangle.
The pic was once looked at as a potential Oscar hopeful before it screened at the Toronto Film Festival last fall. Reviews haven’t been too kind and it stands at only 31% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.
Surprisingly, ThePromise is slated to debut on around 2000 screens so Open Road Films must think it could do OK. Even with the participation of Bale and Isaac, I foresee a very weak premiere.
ThePromise opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million
Twelve years ago, director Terry George’s Hotel Rwanda earned several Oscar nominations, including Actor (Don Cheadle), Supporting Actress (Sophie Okonedo), and Adapted Screenplay. George’s follow-up, 2007’s Reservation Road with Joaquin Phoenix, was a hoped for awards contender that faded away.
His latest effort is The Promise, which focuses on the Armenian genocide and stars Oscar Isaac and Christian Bale. Due to the pedigree involved, it was eyed as potential Academy bait for this season.
The Promise has screened at the Toronto Film Festival to a host of middling reviews and it appears to be a casualty of so-so buzz. The festival season always anoints some big contenders and dilutes others to non-factor status. This appears to be the case here and for Oscar followers, I wouldn’t look for The Promise to grant you any potential nominations in the future.
My Oscar Watch posts will continue as further hopefuls screen up north and elsewhere…
Continuing on with my first round of Oscar predictions, day two brings us to Best Supporting Actor. In both 2014 and 2015, my late August/early September initial picks yielded two out the eventual five nominees. Last year, these first picks correctly identified winner Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies.
There are plenty of contenders to list at this early stage. One of the big question marks in plenty of categories is Martin Scorsese’s Silence, a passion project and historical drama that has yet to release a trailer or announce when it’s coming out. It is assumed that it’ll be out in time for Oscar consideration. If so, Liam Neeson is likely to be a contender in this race (and maybe costar Adam Driver).
As mentioned yesterday with Kristen Stewart in Supporting Actress, Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk appears to be a potential major awards player and the beloved Steve Martin could reap the benefits with his first ever acting nod. Vin Diesel, Chris Tucker, and Garrett Hedlund are also possibilities.
Michael Shannon could be under consideration for two high-profile fall entries – Jeff Nichols’ Loving or Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals.
Barry Jenkins’ indie African-American romantic drama Moonlight is getting attention (I predicted Naomie Harris yesterday for Supporting Actress recognition) and Mahershala Ali (known to many as Remy Danton on Netflix’s “House of Cards”) could find himself in the mix.
Damien Chazelle’s La La Land is also expected to garner Oscar talk (it’ll screen for critics on the festival circuit in days) and it could feature a breakout role for singer John Legend.
And there’s many more possibilities, including Warren Beatty’s return to the silver screen in Rules Don’t Apply. There’s John Goodman’s already acclaimed work in 10 Cloverfield Lane (though the genre could make him a long shot). Or maybe a first nomination for Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins. And there’s two movies that Aaron Eckhart could find himself being considered for.
As always, the list will be updated in the weeks and months ahead, but for now…
TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
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