Wes Anderson is back at Cannes with The Phoenician Scheme, his latest comedy sporting a gigantic cast opening stateside June 6th. Benicio del Toro and Mia Threapleton have the most significant roles with an ensemble also (deep breath) including Michael Cera, Riz Ahmed, Tom Hanks, Bryan Cranston, Mathieu Amalric, Richard Ayoade, Jeffrey Wright, Scarlett Johansson, Benedict Cumberbatch, Rupert Friend, Hope Davis, Bill Murray, Charlotte Gainsbourg, and Willem Dafoe.
We are more than a decade removed from The Grand Budapest Hotel which turned out to be Anderson’s most significant awards contender yet (nine Oscar nods with victories in Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Original Score, and Production Design). His two Phoenician predecessors generated minimal attention in their seasons with The French Dispatch up for Score at the Globes and Asteroid City blanked from the Academy and at the Globes.
Phoenician‘s reaction in France indicates this will follow in the footsteps of those recent titles and not Hotel. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 79% with Metacritic at 74. Even with the typical praise for Production Design and Score, I doubt this shows up anywhere at the Oscars and that includes the new Casting category. Depending on competition, del Toro and Threapleton (daughter of Kate Winslet) could be threats for noms in the Musical/Comedy races in their respective acting derbies. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A month and change after the 97th ceremony, it is time for my first ranked predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies! I gave you my first numbered looks around the same juncture in 2023 and 2024. Two years ago, my April outlook yielded the winners being mentioned in Picture and Director (Oppenheimer and Christopher Nolan), Actress (Emma Stone for Poor Things), Actor (Oppenheimer‘s Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer). Last year… not so much.
Neither Anora, its maker (Sean Baker), or Anora herself (Mikey Madison) were named in April of 2024. The film would debut a month later at Cannes and vault itself into contention. The Brutalist also wasn’t on my radar so no mention of Adrien Brody in Actor. In the supporting fields, Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez was initially ranked 11th while Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) was listed in fourth. Hindsight is 20/20 for 2024, but I had Steve McQueen’s Blitz in first position in Best Picture exactly one year ago. It would go onto receive 0 nominations (pressure is on… After the Hunt).
Let’s get some key caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. Some of the pictures will get pushed back to 2026. Obviously there will be movies that turn out underwhelming and disappear from the awards conversation. Festival titles not listed today will rise up and contend.
You can expect these predictions will be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post (probably in the late summer or early fall when festival season goes into overdrive).
This inaugural preview comes as Ryan Coogler’s Sinners rules the box office with terrific reviews and word-of-mouth. At the moment, its Oscar future looks bright. Let’s see how that sentence reads several months down the line.
With all that out of the way – here are my first ranked takes!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. After the Hunt
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sentimental Value
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Sinners
6. The Rivals of Amziah King
7. Hamnet
8. Jay Kelly
9. The Life of Chuck
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another
12. Frankenstein
13. Bugonia
14. Deliver Me from Nowhere
15. The Smashing Machine
16. No Other Choice
17. The Ballad of a Small Player
18. Michael
19. Die, My Love
20. Highest 2 Lowest
21. Kiss of the Spider Woman
22. F1
23. Is This Thing On?
24. Ann Lee
25. Alpha
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt
2. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
4. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King
5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Other Possibilities:
6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
7. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
8. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly
12. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash
13. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me From Nowhere
14. Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck
15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
8. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda
11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
13. Jodie Foster, Vie privée
14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead
15. Olivia Colman, The Roses
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King
3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere
4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player
10. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
12. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus
13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael
14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
15. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King
4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Other Possibilities:
6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman
8. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
10. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus
11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
12. Emily Watson, Hamnet
13. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
14. Nia Long, Michael
15. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
4. Colman Domingo, Michael
5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good
10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
11. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest
12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
13. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love
14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?
15. Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme
You can expect another update shortly before the Cannes Film Festival kicks off where contenders like Sentimental Value, The Phoenician Scheme, Alpha, Eddington, Eleanor the Great, and Highest 2 Lowest will get their initial screenings.
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 