Tag: The Perfect Neighbor

98th Academy Awards: FINAL Winner Predictions

It is time to make my final predictions for the 98th Academy Awards airing Sunday evening with Conan O’Brien returning as host. The first word that comes to mind… ugh. This is tough. Not every category. Some are quite easy to forecast as is normally the case.

The ones that aren’t? I would say five of the top six competitions could go in different directions and that’s unique. As readers of my blog know, there are scores of individual write-ups talking about the Oscar chances of various films. There are multiple posts ranking the possibilities of pics, performers, directors, writers, and all kinds of crew members. It’s now time to put pencils down and write down my selections in pen for the 21 (now that Best Casting has joined the lineup) feature-length races.

Let’s get to it as I’ll select a winner and runner-up in each! And you can bet I’ll have a recap up Sunday night with reaction and how I did!

Best Picture

Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams

This is a head vs. gut call. The head says One Battle After Another which has taken PGA, the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. That kind of combo would normally be undeniable in BP. Yet Sinners is more of the gut prediction. Having just won Best Ensemble at SAG Actor, Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale seems to be peaking at the right time as voters finalize ballots. The record haul of 16 noms is an obvious bonus.

I cannot stress enough how much of a coin flip this is. I may look foolish on Sunday by betting against the kind of hardware that Battle has achieved in the precursors. However, for several days, the momentum of Sinners has me leaning in its direction.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

2021 was the last year where there was a BP/Director split with CODA taking the grand prize and Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) winning Director. Mr. Anderson has swept the precursors including the Directors Guild of America (DGA) which rarely differs from Oscar. A better night for Sinners than even I’m projecting could cause Ryan Coogler to become the first African-American to make this particular podium trip. In this case, my head and gut say PTA.

WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

Someone other than Jessie Buckley had to win Actress in a Musical or Comedy at the Globes. That was Rose Byrne. Therefore she gets runner-up status. Make no mistake. Of the major categories, this is by far the easiest as Buckley has won everything else.

WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Runner-Up: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

For a while, Critics Choice and Globe winner Timothée Chalamet was looking almost as certain as Buckley. BAFTA and SAG changed that dynamic and they are the last two precursors heading into Oscar voting. At the British ceremony, the not Academy nominated Robert Aramayo (I Swear) was triumphant. At SAG, it was Michael B. Jordan. There’s also Golden Globe Best Drama in a Drama recipient Wagner Moura. All three are viable. Heck there’s even prognosticators making arguments for DiCaprio and Hawke. This is an example where I’m ultimately buying the Sinners mojo though Chalamet still has a stronger shot than some are giving him credit for.

WINNER: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

This one has been all over the place. The Globe went to Teyana Taylor, Amy Madigan took Critics Choice and SAG Actor, and Wunmi Mosaku grabbed BAFTA. Madigan’s performance is so singularly memorable that a win makes plenty of sense. Like Actor, I’m going with where I think the winds are blowing.

WINNER: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Runner-Up: Amy Madigan, Weapons

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

Like Supporting Actress, a head scratcher. Critics Choice went to Jacob Elordi with Stellan Skarsgård getting the Globe. The latter seems more probable and, yes, Sinners love could extend to Lindo. BAFTA and SAG flipped the script by going with Sean Penn who would be picking up the rare third Oscar. This is a case where Battle has the late breaking momentum.

WINNER: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Best Original Screenplay

Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners

While most of the races above are tricky, the screenplay ones are not. Value stands the best chance at an upset but Sinners is the easy pick.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: Sentimental Value

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams

Repeat everything I said for Original Screenplay and replace Battle for Sinners and Hamnet for Value.

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best International Feature Film

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

At one time, Accident was seen as a potential frontrunner. The competition has morphed to a showdown between Value and Agent. This could definitely go either way, but I’ll give the edge to Value achieving something with its nine nominations.

WINNER: Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: The Secret Agent

Best Animated Feature

Arco, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

Zootopia 2 becoming 2025’s largest grossing blockbuster right as voting was occurring cannot hurt. It’s just hard to ignore the cultural juggernaut that KPop is.

WINNER: KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: Zootopia 2

Best Documentary Feature

The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor

This is a category capable of surprises and I could see Alabama, Good Light, and especially BAFTA winner Putin getting called up. Neighbor got lots of attention via its Netflix release and I’ll say the true crime doc squeaks through.

WINNER: The Perfect Neighbor

Runner-Up: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Best Casting

Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners

The inaugural year of the Casting contest is consists of five BP nominees and I’m going with the one I’m seledting as the winner.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

Train Dreams has notched some precursors and is a real threat and the same logic certainly applies to Battle. Either could win. So could Sinners with that BP momentum. This is one I think Battle could manage to get and I’ll give it a slight edge over my BP selection

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Costume Design

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners

While we’re still wondering what Avatar is doing here, this is one of three races that Frankenstein is likely to collect.

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Film Editing

F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

F1 could zoom past the competition and Battle might be the safer bet. I’ll go with my BP pick for this one.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Frankenstein, Kokuho, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, The Ugly Stepsister

This is the second Frankenstein victory unless Sinners has a truly amazing evening.

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Original Score

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

Sinners is anticipated to emerge here rather easily.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Original Song

“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

The Sinners tune could score the upset though “Golden” should be just that.

WINNER: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: “I Lied to You” from Sinners

Best Production Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

Frankenstein Oscar #3 expected with Sinners looming.

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Sound

F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt

One of the trickiest down the line categories as Sinners could absolutely prevail and a Sirāt upset is feasible. I do think the autotunes of F1 gets it by a nose.

WINNER: F1

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, Sinners

The first two Avatar flicks nabbed VE as should the third.

WINNER: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Runner-Up: F1

That equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of victories:

7 Wins

Sinners

4 Wins

One Battle After Another

3 Wins

Frankenstein

2 Wins

KPop Demon Hunters

1 Win

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Hamnet, The Perfect Neighbor, Sentimental Value

The Producers Pick Their Battle

The Producers Guild of America (PGA) followed the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA and bestowed their best picture honors to Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another last night. It occurred during a weekend where Ryan Coogler’s Sinners has two shots to interrupt Battle‘s momentum. The second comes tonight at the Actor Awards (formerly known as SAG) where Sinners has a stronger chance to win the top Ensemble prize.

Even if it does, Battle‘s road to Oscar glory could be undeniable at this point with victories at the aforementioned precursors. A reminder that PGA and the Academy’s BP have matched five times in a row. I correctly called the biggest category and did the same in the animated race with KPop Demon Hunters. That Netflix phenomenon has also landed trophies at earlier ceremonies including the Globes and Critics Choice. The only place it didn’t was BAFTA where it wasn’t eligible and Zootopia 2 emerged. Yet that Disney sequel will likely be #2 to KPop in Academy tabulations.

The only surprise at PGA came in documentary where My Mom Jayne, Mariska Hargitay’s exploration of her relationship with mother Jayne Mansfield, was the winner. I went with another Netflix hit The Perfect Neighbor. Jayne is not among the doc quintet at the Oscars. Neighbor, seen as the Academy favorite, definitely looks vulnerable and I wouldn’t discount BAFTA recipient Mr. Nobody Against Putin or The Alabama Solution.

Keep an eye on the blog for my recap of the Actor Awards later tonight!

37th PGA Awards Winner Predictions

The 37th Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards take place this Saturday and their best of prize has become a rather reliable bellwether for the Academy’s Best Picture. The two have matched 7 out of the last 8 years with 2019 being the exception when PGA chose 1917 and Oscar went with Parasite.

PGA also honors documentaries and animated features. Let’s walk through each race with a winner and runner-up selection.

Daryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, Weapons

PGA and the Academy have a 9 for 10 match this year. Weapons makes the cut on this list with The Secret Agent replacing it at the Oscars. This is expected to come down to Warner Bros offerings One Battle and Sinners. While I am predicting the latter to get Best Ensemble at Sunday’s Actor Awards, I still see Battle as the Oscar frontrunner and therefore am picking it here. That said, if Sinners gets this, the momentum will have shifted.

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures

The Alabama Solution, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Mom Jayne, Ocean with David Attenborough, The Perfect Neighbor, The Tale of Silyan

At BAFTA over the weekend, Nobody rose above favored The Perfect Neighbor. In this doc derby, PGA has often shown a lean toward the most high profile project and that would be Neighbor. I’ll go with it with the caveat that this category can be unpredictable.

WINNER: The Perfect Neighbor

Runner-Up: The Alabama Solution

Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures

The Bad Guys 2, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Zootopia 2

I find myself tempted to go with Zootopia 2 in an upset, but I can’t bet against juggernaut KPop.

WINNER: KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: Zootopia 2

79th BAFTA Awards Reaction

I didn’t anticipate mentioning the 2000 feature Billy Elliot in my BAFTA recap covering 2025 pictures, but these voters are dancing to the beat of a different drum so here we are! That’s one surprise of several that developed at the British equivalent of the Academy Awards. It was not surprising that Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another led the way and (yes) won one BAFTA after another. However, the outcome of the acting races provided legit unexpected results and might have a hand in reshaping what happens at the 98th Oscars.

As far as results, I went 14 for 23 in my projections and 1 for 4 in the acting derbies. I correctly forecasted Best Film and Director BAFTAs for One Battle After Another and its maker Anderson. Same goes for its victories in Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography. It also took the Editing prize where I had F1.

In Supporting Actor, Battle‘s Sean Penn emerged in a field where I picked Stellan Skasgård as the winner and had Penn’s costar Benicio del Toro as the runner-up. We now have 3 different Supporting Actor victors in the three highest profiles precursors – Penn at BAFTA, Skarsgård at the Globes, and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) at Critics Choice. Let’s see what SAG Actor does next weekend as this race is wide open.

Battle did nothing but help its status as BP Oscar frontrunner. Yet Sinners didn’t take a significant hit. It won Original Screenplay and I went with Sentimental Value. I correctly picked it for Original Score.

In Supporting Actress, it represented a One Battle miss and a Sinners pickup. I went with Teyana Taylor, but Wunmi Mosaku lodged her first major recognition. Like Supporting Actor, we now have a trio of recipients among the precursors – Mosaku at BAFTA, Taylor at the Globes, and Amy Madigan (Weapons) at Critics Choice. Once again, SAG Actor will be closely viewed in another wide open acting derby. Simply put, I can’t remember the last time both supporting fields were this unpredictable.

That’s not the case in Actress where Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) predictably did a podium walk as her chances at a seasonal sweep are looking strong.

We will not be seeing a Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) sweep. I had him taking Actor with Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) as runner-up. BAFTA went their own way with Robert Aramayo (I Swear). He was additionally named the BAFTA Rising Star. Aramayo is not nominated at Oscar. The last time a BAFTA Best Actor wasn’t among the Academy’s quintet? That would be Jamie Bell in the title role of… you guessed it (!) Billy Elliot.

Here’s where I managed to get it right – Hamnet for Outstanding British Film and Sentimental Value having a subpar day with its sole win for Film Not in the English Language. I was correct in calling Zootopia 2 as Best Animated Film. Same goes for Frankenstein with the trio of Costume Design, Makeup & Hair, and Production Design and F1 in Sound and Avatar: Fire and Ash in Special Visual Effects.

Here’s where I whiffed. I will pat myself on the back for predicting The Perfect Neighbor would not be the documentary that BAFTA selected. Unfortunately I went with 2000 Meters to Andrivka and not Mr. Nobody Against Putin. Could it emerge as a spoiler to a Neighbor Oscar prize?

Pillion looked like the pick for Outstanding British Debut by a Writer, Director or Producer, but BAFTA chose My Father’s Shadow. Same with Children’s & Family Film where Zootopia 2 looked probable, but Boong was listed in the envelope. In Casting (always a tough race to project), I Swear emerged over Sentimental Value and my runner-up One Battle.

So what’s the biggest takeaway? I’d say the chaos occurring in the supporting competitions and that Battle vs. Sinners appears to still be a battle.

Today’s ceremony bestowed these numbers of wins for these movies:

6 Wins

One Battle After Another

3 Wins

Frankenstein, Sinners

2 Wins

Hamnet, I Swear

1 Win

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Boong, F1, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, Sentimental Value, Zootopia 2

I’ll have winner predictions up for SAG Actor (happening a week from today) on the blog soon!

79th BAFTA Winner Predictions

The 79th BAFTAs (Britain’s version of the Academy Awards) occur this Sunday and they are often a reliable precursor to what Oscar voters will do. For example, they are 8 for 8 in the past two cycles in forecasting the acting races. On the flip side, in 2022, none of the four BAFTA acting recipients took the Oscar. The previous five cycles has seen the BAFTA Best Film match with Best Picture only twice (Nomadland, Oppenheimer). In 2021, the Brits honored The Power of the Dog over CODA (which wasn’t nominated). The following year it was All Quiet on the Western Front instead of Everything Everywhere All at Once. Last year, BAFTA selected Conclave and not Anora.

That’s why it’s very tempting to go with Hamnet over arguable frontrunners One Battle After Another and Sinners in the top competition. I almost did so, but ultimately decided with roll with Battle (with a low degree of confidence). Let’s walk through each race one by one with my winner projections and a runner-up.

Best Film

Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Best Actor

Robert Aramayo (I Swear), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Runner-Up: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Best Supporting Actress

Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Carey Mulligan (The Ballad of Wallis Island), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Emily Watson (Hamnet)

WINNER: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Peter Mullan (I Swear), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

WINNER: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay

I Swear, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners

WINNER: Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bugonia, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Pillion

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Outstanding British Film

28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Die My Love, H is for Hawk, Hamnet, I Swear, Mr Burton, Pillion, Steve

WINNER: Hamnet

Runner-Up: Pillion

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

The Ceremony, My Father’s Shadow, Pillion, A Want in Her, Wasteman

WINNER: Pillion

Runner-Up: My Father’s Shadow

Best Film Not in the English Language

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

WINNER: Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: The Secret Agent

Best Animated Film

Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

WINNER: Zootopia 2

Runner-Up: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Best Children’s & Family Film

Arco, Boong, Lilo & Stitch, Zootopia 2

WINNER: Zootopia 2

Runner-Up: Arco

Best Documentary

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor

WINNER: 2000 Meters to Andrivka

Runner-Up: The Perfect Neighbor

Best Casting

I Swear, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

WINNER: Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Costume Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Editing

F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

WINNER: F1

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Make Up & Hair

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good

Best Original Score

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Production Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Sound

F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare

WINNER: F1

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Special Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, How to Train Your Dragon, The Lost Bus

WINNER: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Runner-Up: F1

That adds up to these movies generating numbers of victories:

5 Wins

One Battle After Another

4 Wins

Sentimental Value

3 Wins

Frankenstein

2 Wins

F1, Hamnet, Zootopia 2

1 Win

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Marty Supreme, Pillion, Sinners

I’ll have a recap up Sunday with how I performed and my thoughts on how it might impact the Oscars…

78th DGA Awards Predictions

The 78th Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards occur on Saturday evening and there’s some genuine intrigue in the biggest race of all. Their honoree for Feature Film has correlated with the Academy’s Best Director recipient 22 out of 25 times in the 21st century. The exceptions are 2002 when the DGA victor was Rob Marshall (Chicago) and the Oscar winner was Roman Polanski (The Pianist), 2012 – Ben Affleck, Argo (DGA) and Ang Lee, Life of Pi (Oscar), and 2019 – Sam Mendes, 1917 (DGA) and Bong Joon-ho (Parasite).

Why the drama? This DGA ceremony could provide a major clue as to what will be taking Best Picture in a few weeks. There are three film related competitions at DGA. Let’s walk through them one by one with a winner projection and a runner-up.

Feature Film

Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

Per usual, 4 of the 5 DGA hopefuls are included the Oscar quintet. The Academy nominated Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) over del Toro. This is a two-man showdown between Anderson and Coogler. The thought process for some time is that Battle is a safe(ish) bet for Best Picture. However, the record shattering 16 nods that Sinners nabbed has shifted the narrative and it is seen as a legit possibility. That momentum could be kicked into a higher gear if Coogler emerges at DGA. It’s tempting to pick him. Yet Sinners has another shot at precursor love via the SAG Actor Awards where a Best Ensemble win seems even more realistic. I’m still going with the Directors Guild favoring PTA – not just for Battle but for a highly celebrated body of work over the past three decades. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice did the same. That said, if Coogler achieves the upset, Sinners will immediately become the frontrunner for BP at the Oscars.

Predicted Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Documentary Film

Nominees: Mstyslav Chernov (2000 Meters to Andrivka), Geeta Gandbhir (The Perfect Neighbor), Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni (Cutting Through Rocks), Elizabeth Lo (Mistress Dispeller), Laura Poitras and Mark Obenhaus (Cover-Up)

While I wouldn’t totally discount Chernov or the team behind Cover-Up, The Perfect Neighbor is the most visible of the five docs thanks to widespread Netflix exposure. That should be enough for the W. It is worthy of mention that the DGA’s recipient often doesn’t match the Academy Documentary Feature Film awardee so this is more of a question mark than Feature Film.

Predicted Winner: Geeta Ghandbhir, The Perfect Neighbor

Runner-Up: Mstyslav Chernov (2000 Meters to Andrivka)

First-Time Feature Film

Nominees: Hasan Hadi (The President’s Cake), Harry Lighton (Pillion), Charlie Polinger (The Plague), Alex Russell (Lurker), Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby)

None of the pics here received any Academy attention though Sorry, Baby probably came closest. Many had it pegged for an Original Screenplay nom. While Lighton and Polinger are viable, I’d stick with Sorry.

Predicted Winner: Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

Runner-Up: Harry Lighton, Pillion

Oscar Predictions: Once Upon a Time in Harlem

The easiest prediction to make for the 98th Academy Awards is that the winner of Best Documentary Feature is a Sundance Film Festival premiere. Why? All five nominated titles (The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor) were initially screened at the 2025 Park City event. The year before that, it was 4 of the 5 contending Sundance docs.

Once Upon a Time in Harlem is one you’ll be hearing about. David Greaves directs a project that was started over five decades ago by his late father William (a celebrated filmmaker himself). It focuses on a 1970s gathering of 1920s/30s artists from the NYC neighborhood. Early reviews are raves with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 96 on Metacritic. Called a vitally important historical document, this could be nominated and it may emerge victorious.

Having said that, the documentary branch from the Academy can be a head scratching group to nail down. I only managed 1 for 5 in my forecast for this year’s race. Even with that caveat, it would be shocking if Harlem is not in the conversation for the 99th ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

79th BAFTA Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 79th BAFTAs were unveiled five days after the Academy revealed their list. The Brits equivalent of the Oscars can often indicate which nominees and pictures are (or aren’t) having momentum in the general awards space.

Overall I went 92 for 122 (75%) in the feature-length categories. Let’s walk through each race with the hopefuls in contention, how I did, and some initial thoughts.

Best Film

Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

No surprise here as One Battle led all nominees with 14 and Sinners right behind with 13. It will probably come down to those two pics with Battle having an edge. I would say Hamnet is a spoiler but it missed some key races.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

The best film five and Lanthimos as I predicted. PTA is the favorite.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

How I Did: 5/6

I gotta stop leaving out Kate Hudson. She’s in over my upset selection of Andrea Riseborough (Dragonfly). Bet on Buckley.

Best Actor

Robert Aramayo (I Swear), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

How I Did: 5/6

Aramayo gets in over Pillion‘s Harry Melling. Chalamet could continue his sweep unless DiCaprio or Hawke upset.

Best Supporting Actress

Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Carey Mulligan (The Ballad of Wallis Island), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Emily Watson (Hamnet)

How I Did: 5/6

A genuine surprise as Amy Madigan (Weapons) is left out in favor of Mulligan. This is likely between Lilleass and Taylor.

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Peter Mullan (I Swear), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

How I Did: 5/6

I had Stellan’s son Alexander Skarsgård (Pillion) joining the sextet and not Mullan. It’s Stellan who probably has the best odds.

Best Original Screenplay

I Swear, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

The Secret Agent over Blue Moon. This is a Value v. Sinners derby.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bugonia, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Pillion

How I Did: 4/5

Ballad over Frankenstein with OBAA out front.

Best Animated Feature

Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 1/3

I whiffed here. First of all, this race typically has four nominees. I had Arco, Demon Slayer, and KPop Demon Hunters and not Elio or Amélie (which was frankly an oversight on my part). It could win and so could Zootopia 2 which is the only flick I correctly called.

Best Documentary

Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, 2000 Meters to Andrivka

How I Did: 4/5

Some retribution after my 1/5 showing at the Oscars. I had Ocean with David Attenborough and not Cover-Up. I wouldn’t assume Neighbor takes this even though it’s the Oscar frontrunner. I actually think all five are viable.

Best Film Not in the English Language

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

This matches the Academy’s quintet and, like that show, this is probably Agent or Value.

Best Casting

I Swear, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 3/5

Hamnet (in a notable miss) or Sirāt are out with I Swear and Supreme in. A likely Sinners trophy.

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

How I Did: 4/5

Frankenstein and not Hamnet in another interesting omission. I’ll note this is the only nom for Train Dreams as this should come down to Battle or Sinners.

Best Costume Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 4/5

Unlike Oscar, Wicked managed to get some BAFTA attention (albeit limited). I had Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale and not Supreme (which had a solid day). Frankenstein may take this.

Best Editing

F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 3/5

Another Battle/Sinners race as F1 and Dynamite show up over Bugonia and (you guessed it) Hamnet.

Best Make Up and Hair

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 3/5

A strange quintet as Hamnet gets an unexpected mention as does Supreme and not One Battle or (more surprisingly) The Smashing Machine. This should go to Frankenstein.

Best Original Score

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

Sinners is the frontrunner.

Best Production Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 3/5

I had Bugonia and Wicked instead of Marty and Battle. Another probable win for Frankenstein.

Best Sound

F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare

How I Did: 3/5

Frankenstein/Warfare over Avatar: Fire and Ash/Wicked. Think Sinners with F1 spoiler possibility.

Best Special Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, How to Train Your Dragon, The Lost Bus

How I Did: 4/5

Dragon, not Superman as Avatar is ahead.

Outstanding British Film

28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Die, My Love, Hamnet, H is for Hawk, I Swear, Mr. Burton, Pillion, Steve

How I Did: 7/10

I went with Ballad of a Small Player, The Choral, and Warfare over Jones, Burton, and Steve. One would think Hamnet takes this though I Swear is viable as an upset pick.

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer

The Ceremony, My Father’s Shadow, Pillion, A Want in Her, Wasteman

How I Did: 3/5

Ceremony/Want over Oceans with David Attenborough and Urchin. Pillion should win.

Best Children’s + Family Film

Arco, Boong, Lilo + Stitch, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 2/4

Grow and How to Train Your Dragon miss and not Boong and Lilo with Zootopia out front.

That works out to the following movies getting these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another

13 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominatons

Hamnet, Marty Supreme

8 Nominations

Frankenstein, Sentimental Value

5 Nominations

Bugonia, I Swear

3 Nominations

The Ballad of Wallis Island, F1, Pillion

2 Nominations

The Secret Agent, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Cover-Up, Blue Moon, Boong, The Ceremony, Die, My Love, Elio, H is for Hawk, A House of Dynamite, How to Train Your Dragon, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, Lilo & Stitch, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, Mr. Burton, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, The Perfect Neighbor, Sirāt, Song Sung Blue, Steve, Train Dreams, The Voice of Hind Rajab, A Want in Her, Warfare, Wasteman

The BAFTAs air February 22nd and you can expect a recap on the blog when that happens.

79th BAFTA Nominations Predictions

Nominations for the 79th BAFTAs (the British equivalent of the Oscars) are out tomorrow prior to the February 22nd ceremony hosted by Alan Cumming. Unlike previous years, BAFTA nods are hitting after the Academy’s picks which were out last week.

For a blogger who concentrates primarily on the Oscar derby, it makes this announcement a tad anticlimactic since I’m not weighing them against what I anticipate will occur on Oscar nom morning. Nevertheless I’m giving you my forecast for all feature-length races with an alternate named in each. For the directing and acting competitions, BAFTA goes with six nominees. For Outstanding British Film, it is ten. There are four in Animated Film and Children’s & Family Film. In all others (including Best Film), we’re talking five. Got all that? Good. Let’s get to it!

Best Film

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Alternate – Bugonia

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Alternate – Kaouther Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajab

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Andrea Riseborough, Dragonfly

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Alternate – Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Harry Melling, Pillion

Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

Alternate – Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Best Supporting Actress

Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Emily Watson, Hamnet

Alternate – Brenda Blethyn, Dragonfly

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Alexander Skarsgård, Pillion

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Alternate – Andrew Scott, Blue Moon

Best Original Screenplay

Blue Moon

I Swear

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Alternate – It Was Just an Accident

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Pillion

Alternate – Train Dreams

Best Animated Film

Arco

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle

KPop Demon Hunters

Zootopia 2

Alternate – Elio

Best Documentary

Apocalypse in the Tropics

Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Ocean with David Attenborough

The Perfect Neighbor

2000 Meters to Andrivka

Alternate – Becoming Led Zeppelin

Best Film Not in the English Language

It Was Just an Accident

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sirāt

The Voice of Hind Rajab

Alternate – No Other Choice

Best Casting

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Sirāt

Alternate – Marty Supreme

Best Cinematography

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Train Dreams

Alternate – Frankenstein

Best Costume Design

Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Marty Supreme

Best Editing

Bugonia

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Alternate – F1

Best Make Up & Hair

Frankenstein

One Battle After Another

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Bugonia

Best Original Score

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Alternate – Marty Supreme

Best Production Design

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – One Battle After Another

Best Sound

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Best Special Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

Frankenstein

The Lost Bus

Superman

Alternate – Wicked: For Good

Outstanding British Film

28 Years Later

Ballad of a Small Player

The Ballad of Wallis Island

The Choral

Die, My Love

Hamnet

H is for Hawk

I Swear

Pillion

Warfare

Alternate – Steve

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer

My Father’s Shadow

Ocean with David Attenborough

Pillion

Urchin

Wasteman

Alternate – The Ceremony

Best Children’s & Family Film

Arco

Grow

How to Train Your Dragon

Zootopia 2

Alternate – Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

That works out to these movies nabbing these numbers in terms of nominations:

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another

13 Nominations

Hamnet, Sinners

8 Nominations

Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Marty Supreme

5 Nominations

Pillion

4 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

2 Nominations

Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, F1, I Swear, Ocean with David Attenborough, Sirāt, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

Apocalypse in the Tropics, Ballad of a Small Player, The Ballad of Wallis Island, The Choral, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Die, My Love, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, Dragonfly, Grow, H is for Hawk, How to Train Your Dragon, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, KPop Demon Hunters, The Lost Bus, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Train Dreams, 28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Urchin, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Warfare, Wasteman, Weapons

98th Academy Awards Nominations Reaction

After months of forecasting and scores of individual posts on the movies vying for the attention of Oscar voters, nominations for the 98th Academy Awards were unveiled this morning. The ceremony airs March 15th with Conan O’Brien returning to host.

There is an undeniable headline in that Sinners shattered the record for most noms ever with 16. The previous holders of that title were a three-way tie between All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land at 14 apiece. Even without a new race (Casting), Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale still would have broken the record. It is a remarkable achievement that could change the narrative in Best Picture (and others).

A secondary headline? The complete shutout of Wicked: For Good. Its predecessor from just a year ago landed 10 nominations. No one had it goose egging. I had it marked for four mentions and at one time weeks ago, I think I had it landing 10.

Overall I went 87 out of 110 in my feature-length projections (or 79%). Documentary Feature, as it has before, was the bane of my prognosticating existence while Visual Effects also tripped me up.

Some quick fun facts: Stellan Skarsgård is (somehow) the first Supporting Actor contender from a foreign film. The BP nod for One Battle After Another gives Leonardo DiCaprio his 12th BP hopeful. That ties with a record with his This Boy’s Life and Killers of the Flower Moon costar Robert De Niro.

In a second, we’ll walk through each race with some initial thoughts and how I did. First – a reminder that my Case Of posts will be arriving on the blog in short order. As readers may recall, I do individual posts on each Best Picture contender and the 25 hopefuls in Director and the four acting derbies. With each write-up, I give the case for their victory and against it along with a verdict. Those posts will start with the 10 BP nominees and then alternate alphabetically between the directing and acting personnel.

Best Picture

Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams

How I Did: 9/10

F1, my 2nd runner-up, makes the cut over It Was Just an Accident. My Case Of posts will delve deeper, but I do believe Sinners is now a strong possibility to win in a showdown with fellow Warner Bros release One Battle After Another.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

How I Did: 4/5

Runner-up Trier is in over Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident). Like BP, this should be between PTA (Battle) and Coogler (Sinners). The former probably has an edge even if Sinners manages the BP victory.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

How I Did: 4/5

Hudson lands her second nomination 25 years after her supporting nod for Almost Famous. I went with Chase Infiniti for Battle. Buckley is the frontrunner.

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

The expected quintet materializes with Chalamet hoping the third time is the charm.

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

How I Did: 4/5

Taylor might be the favorite. However, if Sinners takes BP, I wouldn’t sleep on Mosaku. And I’m saying that having not predicted her though she was my runner-up. I had Marty Supreme‘s Odessa A’Zion in her place. There’s Madigan to consider as well as the Sentimental actresses should vote split.

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

How I Did: 4/5

Lindo is in over Paul Mescal as Hamnet had a couple high profile omissions. Penn may be the only one without a convincing win narrative and this could come down to the wire.

Best Original Screenplay

Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

Moon, which I didn’t list as either of my runner-ups, is in over The Secret Agent. Value is viable though Sinners is the safer bet.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

The five Adapted works from BP are in. A pretty easy call for Battle.

Best International Feature Film

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

How I Did: 4/5

Second runner-up Rajab instead of No Other Choice, which was blanked. This is a fascinating category as Agent vs. Value could be the showdown.

Best Animated Feature

Arco, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

This has been the anticipated lineup for several weeks with KPop in the pole position.

Best Documentary Feature

The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor

How I Did: 1/5 (ugh)

The Doc race strikes again and hurts my numbers. I only had Neighbor (the frontrunner… I guess) correctly named as I went with Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, and 2000 Meters to Andrivka.

Best Casting

Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

Hamnet (my runner-up) instead of Frankenstein. This should also come down to Battle v. Sinners and I’m leaning toward the latter.

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

How I Did: 4/5

Marty Supreme (my runner-up) instead of Hamnet (another notable miss). A broken record as this is also between Battle and Sinners.

Best Costume Design

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

A genuine shocker with Avatar in. Its two predecessors didn’t even make this category. I had Wicked: For Good instead (get used to hearing that). Frankenstein is out front, but a Sinners over performance could happen.

Best Film Editing

F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

Value instead of Hamnet. Once again, Battle or Sinners.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Frankenstein, Kokuho, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, The Ugly Stepsister

How I Did: 4/5

2nd runner-up Stepsister is in contention over Wicked. Frankenstein shouldn’t have any trouble here.

Best Original Score

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

Bugonia, which I didn’t list in the runners-up, over Sirāt. This is likely to be a Sinners prize.

Best Original Song

“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless, “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters, “I Lied to You” from Sinners, “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!, “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

How I Did: 4/5

The Verdi! is very much an unexpected inclusion. I had “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light. I’ll also note neither shortlisted Wicked track made it. Unless the Academy decides to finally honor Diane Warren in a competitive race or a Sinners sweep happens, KPop should be golden.

Best Production Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

Runner-Up Battle over (you got it) Wicked. Another potential W for Frankenstein.

Best Sound

F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt

How I Did: 4/5

Runner-up Frankenstein instead of Avatar. This could be between F1 and Sinners with Sirāt as an upset possibility.

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, Sinners

How I Did: 2/5 (ugh)

Like Documentary, the VE voters can be unpredictable and they went with Jurassic (first nod in the franchise since 1997’s The Lost World), Bus, and Sinners (getting that historic 16th mention) over Frankenstein, Superman, and (say it with me!) Wicked. The winner isn’t hard to project as Avatar looks to go 3 for 3.

Besides the aforementioned Wicked and No Other Choice, two other notable pics that you won’t find among the nominees are Jay Kelly and The Testament of Ann Lee.

Here is how the nominations did shake out:

16 Nominations (!)

Sinners

13 Nominations

One Battle After Another

9 Nominations

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value

8 Nominations

Hamnet

4 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, KPop Demon Hunters, Sirāt

1 Nomination

The Alabama Solution, Arco, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Jurassic World Rebirth, Kokuho, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Song Sung Blue, The Ugly Stepsister, Viva Verdi!, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Weapons, Zootopia 2

Keep an eye out for the Case Of posts as we march toward final predictions in March!