In 2023, Disney finds itself in the rather rare position of not having a Best Animated Feature frontrunner at the Oscars. The category started in 2001 and 15 of the 22 previous winners have been released by the Mouse House. This summer’s Elemental got decent enough reviews that it probably has a spot in the eventual five nominees.
I’m not sure the same can be said for Wish. The musical from directors Chris Buck and Fawn Veerasunthorn and featuring the voices of West Side Story gold statue recipient Ariana DeBose and Chris Pine comes out over the Thanksgiving holiday. With its review embargo lifted, the Tomato meter is at only 62%. That is certainly below most Disney animated offerings and it brings awards viability into question.
In my view, Elemental (a bit fresher at 74%) is behind Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (definitely the favorite) and The Boy and the Heron. I still think it gets in. That leaves two spots. Wish will need to compete with Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Nimona, and The Peasants to make the cut. Its legendary studio will need to work their campaigning magic to have two competitors in the race.
Wish may have a slightly better shot at Original Song with DeBose singing “This Wish”. Yet it’s quite possible that Wish could be granted zero nominations. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As October closes out, my first predictions in two weeks sees changes with a few of the major categories along with a significant ranking alteration. American Fiction is back in the projected ten for Best Picture with Anatomy of a Fall falling to 11th. Jeffrey Wright from Fiction also gets into the quintet for Actor at the expense of Colman Domingo in Rustin.
Greta Lee returns to the Actress lineup with Margot Robbie (Barbie) out while Viola Davis (Air) is back in the Supporting Actress derby with Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) on the outside looking in. Charles Melton (May December) is in Supporting Actor with Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) now in sixth.
As for that ranking alteration, Bradley Cooper (Maestro) is in 1st position in Actor for the first time with Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) now runner-up.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (E)
10. American Fiction (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Air (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Napoleon (PR: 13 (E)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Saltburn (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 7) (E)
8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, Ferrari
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)
10. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Air (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. May December (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fair Play (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 6) (+2)
5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Taste of Things (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Hit Man
Origin
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 8) (+2)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Promised Land (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Settlers
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Napoleon
The Boy and the Heron
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 5) (+2)
4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Barbie (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)
7. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Saltburn (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Ferrari (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Barbie
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wonka (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Barbie
That shakes out to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Poor Things
11 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
9 Nominations
Barbie
8 Nominations
The Color Purple
6 Nominations
Maestro
5 Nominations
The Holdovers
4 Nominations
Past Lives, The Zone of Interest
3 Nominations
American Fiction, Napoleon
2 Nominations
Air, Anatomy of a Fall, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, American Symphony, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, May December, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rustin, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge
For this year’s Animated Feature race at the Oscars, it appears there are three spots already spoken for. That would be Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (the frontrunner), Elemental, and The Boy and the Heron. We await Disney’s Wish and it’s a strong possibility it makes the dance unless it majorly underwhelms with critics and crowds.
That could leave just one slot left for the five spot and there’s hopefuls. They include the sequel Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget and reboot Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. There’s the Polish historical drama The Peasants.
And we have Nimona from Nick Bruno and Troy Quane. The Netflix comedic adventure premiered on Netflix over the summer to solid reviews (94% on Rotten Tomatoes). Featuring the voices of Chloë Grace Moretz and Riz Ahmed, I’ve had it ranked #5 in a few of my posts (including the most recent update from last weekend). Bruno and Quane are the team behind 2019’s Spies in Disguise. It did not make the quintet in Animated Feature (it probably narrowly missed). Nimona‘s inclusion may come down to whether Netflix throws their campaign attention behind it or Nugget. Don’t be surprised if it’s this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My mid-October Oscar predictions has Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things leading the nominations tally with an impressive 12 apiece!
Poor Things rises partly because I’m putting Willem Dafoe back in my projected Supporting Actor quintet alongside his costar Mark Ruffalo. In Supporting Actress, I’ve elevated Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) over Viola Davis (Air). This is Cruz’s first appearance in my top five.
Margot Robbie (Barbie) returns to my Actress five with Greta Lee (Past Lives) on the outside looking in. You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+3)
6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Past Lives (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Air (PR: 12) (+1)
12. American Fiction (PR: 1) (-1)
13. Napoleon (PR: 13) (E)
14. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Origin
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)
7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Barry Koeghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
America Ferrera, Barbie
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (-1)
7. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon
Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fair Play (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. American Fiction (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)
10. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Promised Land (PR: 10) (+4)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Settlers (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Peasants
The Delinquents
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
10. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ferrari (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-4)
10. The Creator (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Creator (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Barbie (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Killers of the Flower Moon
That gives us a tally for these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
10 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Color Purple
5 Nominations
The Holdovers, Maestro, The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Past Lives
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon
2 Nominations
Elemental, Ferrari, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Wish
1 Nominations
20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge
The September triumvirate of high profile festivals (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) is in the rearview mirror. The New York Film Festival is happening now though there’s not a huge number of pictures that didn’t already premiere at earlier fests. One that did – Garth Davis’s Foe – proved to be an awards bust. With a 21% Rotten Tomatoes score, you can assume this is the last time it will be mentioned in these prediction posts.
Truth be told, there are just a few Oscar bait titles left to screen. They include The Color Purple, Napoleon, Disney’s Wish, The Iron Claw, and Wonka (in some tech races).
I thought this might be an opportune time to tell you how my 2022 predictions from this same time of year stood up. Last year, when I did forecasts for the 95th Academy Awards on October 5th, it yielded an impressive 8 of the eventual nominees (winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking). The other two nominees (Avatar: The Way of Water and Elvis) were both listed in other possibilities.
For Best Director, I correctly called three of the five (winners the Daniels for Everything Everywhere, Todd Field for Tár, Steven Spielberg with The Fabelmans). Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Rüben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) were identified as other possibilities.
The #3 also applied to Actress as I named winner Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everything) along with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans). Ana de Armas (Blonde) was tagged under other possibilities while Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) was not yet on the radar screen. Same goes for Best Actor (3) where I had winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Bill Nighy (Living) in othjer possibilities. Paul Mescal (Aftersun) was outside of the top ten.
In the supporting derbies, my 2022 early October projections gave you only two of the eventual five in Supporting Actress with Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Hong Chau (The Whale). Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere) was an other possibility. The winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere) was not yet in my listed ten nor was fellow nominee Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever). For Supporting Actor, I correctly had three with winner Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) and Banshees costars Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) was in other possibilities while Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) had not entered my mix.
Whew. For those keeping score, that means I predicted 22 of the 35 movies, directors, and actors in those six races at this same juncture in 2022.
My first October projections contain a few alterations from my final September write-up. As much as I don’t like taking Toronto’s People’s Choice Award victor American Fiction out of my BP lineup, I’m doing so with The Zone of Interest back in that list. On the same note, Zone‘s filmmaker Jonathan Glazer returns to my directing quintet with Celine Song (Past Lives) on the outside looking in.
Greta Lee (Past Lives) jumps back in Actress with Margot Robbie (Barbie) omitted. However, Lee’s costar John Magaro is dropped from Supporting Actor in favor of Charles Melton (May December).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)
15. Origin (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)
7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, Amerian Fiction (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Teo Yoo, Past Lives
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (E)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4 ) (E)
5. Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. About Dry Grasses (PR: 5) (-1)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Settlers (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Promised Land (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Teachers’ Lounge
Io capitano
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“High Life” from Flora and Son
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Napoleon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ferrari (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The Killer
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Creator (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (-2)
That means I’m projecting these movies will garner these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
10 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
6 Nominations
The Color Purple, Maestro
5 Nominations
Past Lives
4 Nominations
The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall
2 Nominations
Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, The Killer, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol
The nation of Poland has announced that animated historical drama The Peasants is their pick for contention in International Feature Film at the Oscars. It comes from directors Dorota Kabiela and Hugh Welchman, whose 2017 predecessor Loving Vincent was a nominee for Animated Feature Film.
After its Toronto Film Festival premiere, a small sampling of reviews gives it 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The Poles have put themselves in position for the international derby an impressive six times in the 21st century: in 2007 for Katyń, for 2011’s In Darkness, 2014’s Ida (the sole winner), Cold War in 2018, Corpus Christi in 2019, and last year with EO.
I wouldn’t count out The Peasants in either IFF or Animated Feature (though it’s a probably a stretch to think it gets in for both). It hasn’t been on my radar in my forecasts thus far, but don’t be surprised if it pops up in the next update. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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