Annabelle: Creation isn’t the only follow-up to a 2014 picture opening next weekend as animated sequel TheNutJob2: NuttybyNature debuts. Will Arnett, Katherine Heigl, Gabriel Iglesias, and Jeff Dunham return their voices from the original as Maya Rudolph, Bobby Cannavale, Bobby Moynihan, and Jackie Chan lend their stylings as well.
The animal heist pic hopes to repeat the success of the first which was made for a reported $42 million, made $64 domestically and $128 million worldwide. That stands as the largest gross ever for distributor Open Road.
Summer 2017 has seen its share of sequelitis and there’s been a plethora of higher profile animated offerings. In my estimation that likely means a bit of a drop for part 2’s debut (the first opened to $19 million). Even though I give it a modicum of credit for subtitling itself after an awesome early 90s hip hop group (yeah you know me), I’ll say a low double digits to low teens premiere is the result.
The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature opening weekend prediction: $12.2 million
For my Annabelle: Creation prediction, click here:
It’s very early in the year but this upcoming weekend at the box office is a good candidate for one of the dullest we’ll see all year. The Zac Efron comedy That Awkward Moment and Kate Winslet/Josh Brolin drama Labor Day are the only debuts and neither seems to be garnering much excitement. You can find my individual prediction posts on each here:
If neither of those titles breaks out above double digits, the chance are high that the Kevin Hart/Ice Cube comedy Ride Along could top the box office for the third week in a row. There is, however, another factor. Disney’s megahit Frozen is expanding its theater count with a sing-along version of the film and that just might cause it to see an increase from this past weekend. I’m predicting it’ll be extremely close between those holdovers for #1 in a weekend sure to overshadowed by a certain football game capturing the nation’s attention.
With that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. Ride Along
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million (representing a drop of 47%)
2. Frozen
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing an increase of 19%)
3. Labor Day
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
4. That Awkward Moment
Predicted Gross: $8 million
5. The Nut Job
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 36%)
BOX OFFICE RESULTS FROM LAST WEEKEND: I correctly called Ride Along being #1 for its second weekend and it made $21.2 million, just below my $22.7M prediction. However, I was off with my I, Frankenstein estimate. The critically reviled pic bombed badly with only $8.6 million for a sixth place showing. I gave it way too much credit and said it’d be #2 with $16.6M. Oops. Lone Survivor was second with $12.9 million (in line with my $13.6M prediction) and The Nut Job was third with $12.9 million (in line with my $12.1M prediction). Once again, I made the mistake of leaving Frozen out of the top five. It was fourth with $9.1 million. This left Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit at fifth in its second weekend with $9 million – on pace with my $9.5M estimate.
That’s all for now! I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final predictions and results Monday.
For the MLK weekend, we are just dealing with estimates right now but we know one thing: Ride Along with Kevin Hart and Ice Cube has achieved the biggest January opening of all time. The record had been held for the past six years by Cloverfield but Ride‘s monster debut eclipsed it. Taking in an estimated $48.1 million, the pic cruised way beyond my $21.4M projection. Ride Along proves that Hart, especially, is a bona fide movie draw and don’t be surprised if Ride Along 2 is green lit this week.
Falling to second was last weekend’s champ Lone Survivor with $26.3 million over the four-day, a bit lower than my $30.4M estimate. The Mark Wahlberg Navy SEAL tale has earned a whopping $77 million so far and looks to easily break $100M when all is said and done. The animated feature The Nut Job posted a very solid opening in third with $25.2 million over the holiday weekend, trumping my $19.6M prediction.
The top three spots over the weekend are all good news for those pictures. The same cannot be said for Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, which posted a weak fourth place opening with $18 million over the four-day, less than my $25.6M projection. With Chris Pine taking over the role of Jack Ryan in the fifth entry in the franchise, the nearly 12 year wait between movies clearly showed audience interest has waned. It’ll need a good hold in its second weekend and I’m not sure it’ll get it.
Spots five and six were held by leftovers. Frozen was fifth with $16.2 million and multiple Oscar nominee American Hustle got a nice boost with all its publicity and grossed $11.5 million for sixth. Their respective grosses so far are $336 and $117 million.
This meant the new horror flick Devil’s Due had a disappointing premiere with only $9.3 million in four days, well below my $17.1M prediction. January has been a pretty dismal month for horror – as this and Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones came in below expectations.
That’s all for now! Due to the holiday weekend and final numbers not coming until Tuesday, I’ll have my top five predictions for next weekend when only I, Frankenstein opens tomorrow on the blog.
Four new titles populate multiplexes this Friday over the four-day MLK weekend – Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, Ride Along, Devil’s Due, and The Nut Job. You can peruse my prediction posts on each one of them at the following links:
The big question is: can any of these releases knock off Lone Survivor from staying at #1 for the second weekend? The Mark Wahlberg Navy SEAL pic had the second highest January debut of all time, far surpassing the box office predictions of prognosticators, including this one. With its remarkable A+ Cinemascore average, word of mouth on Survivor is very strong and it should hold up quite well in weekend number two.
The 2014 MLK weekend may well resemble the same one from five years ago when four new releases all posted healthy debuts. There was Paul Blart: Mall Cop which made $39 million over the four-day while My Bloody Valentine 3D, Notorious, and Hotel for Dogs all posted openings of over $20 million. The four new titles this year I have pegged at between $17-$25 million each, but any of them could do better and take top honors from Wahlberg and company. My predictions do not reflect that though and I believe Lone Survivor should stay alone at the top spot.
And with that, my predictions for the holiday weekend’s top five for the four-day Friday to Monday frame:
1. Lone Survivor
Predicted Gross: $30.4 million (representing a drop of 19%)
2. Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit
Predicted Gross: $25.6 million
3. Ride Along
Predicted Gross: $21.4 million
4. The Nut Job
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
5. Devil’s Due
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million
My Results from Last Weekend (January 10-12):
As I mentioned, Lone Survivor went beyond expectations with a terrific debut of $37.8 million, well ahead of my paltry $21.7M projection. Disney’s Frozen stayed at #2 with $14.7 million, a bit higher than my estimate of $13.5M. The Legend of Hercules debuted at third with a disappointing $8.8 million, below my $11.9M prediction. The Wolf of Wall Street was fourth, also with $8.8 million – right in line with my $8.5M estimate. American Hustle was fifth with $8.3 million and I incorrectly did not have it the top five. The six spot belonged to The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug with $8 million, just under my $8.4M projection.
Finally, two Oscar hopefuls expanded their theater counts with different results. August: Osage County was seventh with a solid $7.1 million on only around 900 screens, beyond my $5.8M projection. Her was a disappointment, managing only $5.3 million for an 11th place showing, well below my $8.3M estimate.
And that’s all for now, folks! I’ll have updates posted on the blog’s Facebook page throughout the holiday weekend with final results next week.
While Disney’s Frozen continues to post impressive numbers after several weeks in release, another animated tale debuts Friday with The Nut Job. This is the first animated feature from Open Roads Films with the Weinstein Company picking up international distribution. Featuring the voices of Will Arnett, Brendan Fraser, Liam Neeson, and Katherine Heigl, the squirrel flick is certainly nowhere near the stratosphere of any Pixar or Disney product or anything like the Despicable Me series.
Still, family audiences could be on the lookout for something new as Frozen has been out for quite a while now. Having said that, this is certainly on the B team of animated movies and I wouldn’t expect anything too high. Anything over $25 million for the four day MLK weekend would be surprising. I expect it to follow the pattern of another “B team” animated entry – last year’s Escape from Planet Earth. That film earned $15.8 million over the three day portion of 2013’s President’s Day weekend and $21.1 million for the four day holiday time frame. That seems like a fairly reasonable range for The Nut Job, but I will predict this falls a bit under that.
The Nut Job opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million (Friday-to-Monday)
For my prediction on Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, click here:
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