Tag: The Most Precious of Cargoes

97th Academy Awards Predictions: November 17th Edition

My first Oscar predictions in two weeks and it’s about what narratives I’m buying and which ones I’m selling. For example, I’m currently not sold that Paramount’s September 5 is the contender that some other prognosticators think it is.

On the flip side, I am starting to buy that Conclave is on the rise. The Focus Features effort from Edward Berger is performing well at the box office for an adult skewering drama. I think it has to a shot to win the big prize and that’s why you’ll see it elevated in multiple categories.

While my BP and directorial and Best Actress lineups are unchanged as far as hopefuls, Daniel Craig (Queer) returns to my Actor quintet at the expense of Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice). In Supporting Actor, it is the same five but Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is perched atop the list for the first time. In Supporting Actress, I’m banking on Isabella Rossellini potentially riding that Conclave goodwill and that leaves Ariana Grande (Wicked) on the outside looking in.

You can read all the movement below and the next update should arrive on Thanksgiving weekend!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Conclave (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Real Pain (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Substance (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+1)

15. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 8) (+2)

7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Steve McQueen, Blitz

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)

7. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

John Magaro, September 5

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Substance (PR: 9) (+3)

7. September 5 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Blitz (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Hit Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Universal Language (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

9. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Grand Tour (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Armand

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Spellbound (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Most Precious of Cargoes

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daughters (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Union (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Separated (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Gaucho Gaucho

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Anora (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Blitz (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (E)

8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Substance (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)

4. A Different Man (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wicked (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Beyond” from Moana 2 (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Blitz (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 4) (E)

4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Twisters (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Civil War

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Twisters (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Better Man (PR: 6) (E)

7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Here

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

9 Nominations

The Brutalist, Conclave

6 Nominations

Wicked

5 Nominations

Anora, Blitz, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Sing Sing

3 Nominations

A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, Saturday Night, The Substance, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

97th Academy Awards Predictions: November 3rd Edition

My votes are in for my latest Oscar predictions at the 97th Academy Awards and I’ve elected to elevate Wicked into my BP top ten with Gladiator II sliding out. This is based on buzz for early screenings and I will readily admit that sometimes those viewings can elicit exaggerated reactions. We’ll see if Wicked sticks around in a way that Gladiator II didn’t (the two pics both open November 22nd).

In other movement, Edward Berger (Conclave) is back in my directorial quintet with RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) on the outside looking in. The five spot in Best Actor switches to Sebastian Stan playing a certain 45th POTUS with Daniel Craig (Queer) slipping. Ariana Grande’s witchy Wicked work enters the Supporting Actress derby with Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) falling to sixth place. In Supporting Actor, on the other hand, Conclave’s Stanley Tucci re-enters with Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) now out. You can peruse all the activity below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Blitz (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

11. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-3)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-1)

13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Substance (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Room Next Door

September 5

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)

8. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ridley Scott, Gladiator II

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

5. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (E)

3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-2)

10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Blitz (PR: 6) (-1)

8. September 5 (PR: 4) (-4)

9. The Substance (PR: 9) (E)

10. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

His Three Daughters

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (E)

5. Universal Language (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Kneecap (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Grand Tour (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Armand (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (E)

4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5 (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Orion and the Dark

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Union (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daughters (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dahomey (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anora (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Maria (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Maria (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (E)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 10 (E)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Gladiator II

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Substance (PR: 4) (+2)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)

7. Maria (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Challengers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emila Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+4)

4. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 6) (-2)

9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Beyond” from Moana 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)

5. Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)

10. Civil War (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Brutalist

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Twisters (PR: 4) (E)

5. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Better Man (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Wicked (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (E)

10. Here (PR: 5) (-5)

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez

8 Nominations

Conclave

6 Nominations

Wicked

5 Nominations

Anora, Blitz, Gladiator II, Sing Sing

3 Nominations

A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

Maria, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Twisters

1 Nomination

The Apprentice, Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, Nosferatu, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, The Substance, Union, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 3rd Edition

You can’t judge a movie by its trailer, but you can alter your Oscar Predictions and such is the case with Nightbitch. For many weeks, I’ve had Amy Adams perched atop my Best Actress list. The six-time nominee has to get the gold sometime right? After today’s first look, I don’t think this is the vehicle. Perhaps the Toronto Film Festival (where this screens in days) will prove me wrong.

Speaking of festivals, you might have heard that Telluride just concluded as Venice is at its midpoint. As both events tend to do, the awards landscape has been altered due to their premieres. Some pics and performers have risen while others have fallen.

The biggest winner at the time of this publication seems to be Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist from Venice. The three hour plus Holocaust survivor drama vaults 20 spots from #23 to #3 in my Best Picture rankings with Corbet in for his direction and Adrien Brody returning to the Actor derby. Mr. Brody knocks out Sebastian Stan in A Different Man. Speaking of Stan, he will also be vying for attention as Donald Trump in The Apprentice. It was confirmed this week that it will be released in October.

Another benefactor, this one from Telluride, is Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night. The solid reaction in Colorado puts it (barely) in my BP hopefuls along with Original Screenplay and Film Editing recognition.

The inclusion of these two newbies knocks out two others that didn’t fare quite as well in their unveilings – Queer and The Piano Lesson. They are both still listed in Other Possibilities but are no longer picks to make the big dance.

Three of the four acting races have new #1s. While Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) is still first in Actor (with Ralph Fiennes from Conclave and Adrien Brody hot on his heels), the aforementioned Adams plummets in Actress. In her place? Mikey Madison from Anora though Angelina Jolie (Maria) and Karla Sofia Gascón are close behind. Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) makes her first appearance in the quintet. Please note that Folie will screen in Venice tomorrow so we’ll know more then (keep an eye on the blog for its individual predictions post).

In Supporting Actress, my previous #1 Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) slides three positions with Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) moving up. Her costar Selena Gomez is now in my five as well and that takes out Tilda Swinton in The Room Next Door. I will say deciding between Gomez and Swinton for the 5 spot was basically a coin flip.

The news for Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson) and his chances are worse. He goes from 1st to 9th with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) back at one. Guy Pearce in The Brutalist, who would be a first-time nominee, rockets from 15th to 2nd in the race and Stanley Tucci (Conclave) reenters over his costar John Lithgow.

You can read all the movement – and there is plenty of movement indeed – below and my next update will likely come Sunday as more Venice titles screen and Toronto begins!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 23) (+20)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saturday Night (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (+2)

12. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (+8)

13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Queer (PR: 7) (-7)

15. The Room Next Door (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Gladiator II (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (-2)

18. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-9)

19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 22) (+3)

20. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-6)

21. Wicked (PR: 21) (E)

22. The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)

23. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

24. Maria (PR: 18) (-6)

25. A Different Man (PR: 24) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Hard Truths

The End

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)

9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)

10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 7) (-6)

14. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (-6)

8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (-2)

13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 11) (+8)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (-3)

9. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Paul Mescal. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-7)

14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-6)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 13) (E)

14. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Valeria Golino, Maria

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 15) (+13)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (-8)

10. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

11. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 9) (-5)

15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 3) (-12)

Dropped Out:

Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Saturday Night (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 14) (+9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

11. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

12. The Substance (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Challengers (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (-1)

15. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The End

Maria

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Queer (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Hit Man (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (-1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (E)

13. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Grand Tour (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (-2)

7. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Universal Language (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Cloud (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Caught by the Tides (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Evil Does Not Exist

Simon of the Mountain

Uprising

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)

5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Savages (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7 (E)

8. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Orion and the Dark (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Most Precious of Cargoes

Transformers One

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (+1)

4. No Other Land (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 3) (-3)

7. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Union

Gaucho Gaucho

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Anora (PR: 8) (E)

9. Queer (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Conclave

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Challengers (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

A Complete Unknown

Queer

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maria (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Sasquatch Sunset

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Queer (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Challengers (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

Here

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 8) (+2)

7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Why Am I Here” from Shirley (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Wicked

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (E)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Conclave (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Queer

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+2)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (E)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

A Quiet Place: Day One

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Twisters (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: 6) (-4)

And that works out to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Blitz

8 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

The Brutalist

6 Nominations

Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Conclave

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, Saturday Night

2 Nominations

Maria, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

Black Box Diaries, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

97th Academy Awards Predictions: August 20th Edition

In eights days, the Venice Film Festival will get underway followed the next day by Telluride and followed by Toronto the following week. The trio of events, as they always do, kick off a flurry of awards activity and dozens of Oscar Prediction posts on this blog. The fests in Italy, Colorado, and Canada will make the picture for the 97th Academy Awards considerably clearer.

As you peruse the titles listed below, here are just some which will debut at one or more of the festivals: Conclave, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Saturday Night, The End, Maria, Nightbitch, Babygirl, The Room Next Door, I’m Still Here, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, The Brutalist, The Fire Inside, Hard Truths, We Live in Time, The Wild Robot, Piece by Piece, and The Last Showgirl.

The plan is for my next update to arrive on Labor Day. By that time, quite a few of these titles will already have eyeballs on them and reviews will be written. Consider this the penultimate forecast before it gets really real.

This update comes with a pair of changes in the supporting fields. In Supporting Actress, Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) enters my quintet with Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) dropping out. Speaking of Conclave, John Lithgow is now in my Supporting Actor five over his costar Stanley Tucci.

You can peruse all the movement below as festival season is nearly upon us!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anora (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (E)

12. Saturday Night (PR: 18) (+6)

13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 12) (-3)

16. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-2)

17. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (-1)

18. Maria (PR: 17) (-1)

19. The End (PR: 20) (+1)

20. A Real Pain (PR: 19) (-1)

21. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

22. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 24) (+2)

23. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

24. A Different Man (PR: 21) (-3)

25. Hard Truths (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Fire Inside

Here

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)

9. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)

10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)

11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Ridley Scott, Gladiator II

Marielle Heller, Nightbitch

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (E)

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)

9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (E)

12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Zendaya, Challengers

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Timothèe Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tom Hanks, Here

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Selena Gomez, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (E)

12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

15. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Glenn Close, The Deliverance

Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (E)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+7)

4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 14) (E)

15. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Raci, Sing Sing

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saturday Night (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The End (PR: 9) (+1)

9. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Dídi (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Maria (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Challengers (PR: 12) (E)

13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Substance (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

A Different Man

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. Queer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12 (E)

13. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 13) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)

3. Grand Tour (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Caught by the Tides (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (E)

8. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)

9. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Uprising (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Kneecap

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Transformers One (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sugarcane (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Land (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 7) (E)

8. Union (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR 4) (E)

5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Anora (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A Complete Unknown

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Blitz (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Challengers (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maria (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Nightbitch

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Queer (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Challengers (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

The Piano Lesson

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from Wicked (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (-1)

7. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Why Am I Here” from Shirley (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Conclave (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Queer (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Maria

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

9. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Emilia Pérez

Twisters

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)

8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wicked (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Mufasa: The Lion King

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Blitz

8 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

6 Nominations

Gladiator II, Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Conclave, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Wicked

2 Nominations

A Different Man, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Black Box Diaries, Challengers, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, The Outrun, The Room Next Door, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

97th Academy Awards Predictions: July 29th Edition

The unexpected announcement that James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown is releasing in 2024 shakes up my predictions. I have it being nominated in four races. That would include Best Picture (where it replaces The Piano Lesson) and Timothèe Chalamet in Actor as he vaults over The Piano Lesson‘s John David Washington. It was not a great week for Piano as I now have it being solely nominated for Samuel L. Jackson in Supporting Actor. Yet even he drops to second in favor of Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing.

The news is not all positive for that movie. As I hinted at last week, Sing Sing was a very soft frontrunner in BP and A24’s release strategy has been curious. Therefore I am elevating Steve McQueen’s Blitz back to first position with its director atop that category over Dune‘s Denis Villeneuve. Colman Domingo is still in my lead for Actor.

There are two alterations in the supporting fields with Isabella Rossellini returning to Supporting Actress over… you guessed it… Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) returns to my anticipated quintet in Supporting Actor in place of Adam Pearson from A Different Man.

The Venice and Toronto festivals have announced the bulk of their lineups for late August into September. There has also been screening news for New York and London and we have a general idea of some pics likely to play Telluride. The lack of certain titles at those events have caused me to drop some hopefuls. This include The Apprentice, The Collaboration, and Long Day’s Journey Into Night. Should they be confirmed for the 2024 calendar, I’ll obviously readjust.

A quick note on Pedro Almodóvar’s The Room Next Door. It appears that Julianne Moore is more likely to be in lead Actress with Tilda Swinton in supporting. I’ve made that change though I’ve yet to put either of the past winners in my final five picks.

Of course, this is all completely unknown at press time but you can peruse all my best guesswork below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 3) (+2)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

6. Anora (PR: 6) (E)

7. Queer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (-1)

16. The End (PR: 19) (+3)

17. Maria (PR: 18) (+1)

18. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

19. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (-2)

20. Hard Truths (PR: 22) (+2)

21. The Fire Inside (PR: 20) (-1)

22. A Real Pain (PR: 15) (-7)

23. A Different Man (PR: 21) (-2)

24. Here (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Wicked (PR: 24) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Apprentice

Dídi

His Three Daughters

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 6) (E)

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)

9. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

10. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (E)

15. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Marianne-Jean Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 12) (+1)

12. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door – moved to supporting

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+2)

7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-3)

8. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)

11. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)

13. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Paul Bettany, The Collaboration

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

15. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door – moved to lead

Erin Kellyman, Blitz

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 5) (-2)

8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Elliot Heffernan, Blitz

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hard Truths (PR:5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

9. The End (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Challengers (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-3)

14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 12) (-2)

15. I Saw the TV Glow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Apprentice

A Different Man

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Queer (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Hit Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Inside Out 2 (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-3)

13. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)

14. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (E)

15. Here (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Collaboration

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)

3. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Caught by the Tides (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Uprising (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Kneecap (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Emmanuelle

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Flow (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Savages (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Transformers One (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Most Precious of Cargoes

The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daughters (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (+2)

4. No Other Land (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)

9. Union (PR: 9) (E)

10. Frida (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anora (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Conclave (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Maria (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Queer (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Blitz (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Megalopolis

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)

5. A Different Man (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Queer (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Blitz (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Conclave (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Challengers (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Here (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (+1)

3. TBD from Wicked (PR: 5) (+2)

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-4)

7. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

“Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Maria (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (E)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

8. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Twisters (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Sing Sing

Civil War

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Here (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Twisters (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Mufasa: The Lion King

And that shakes out to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Blitz

7 Nominations

Conclave, Emilia Pérez

5 Nominations

Anora, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Sing Sing

4 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Nosferatu, Queer

3 Nominations

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

2 Nominations

A Different Man, A Real Pain, Wicked

1 Nomination

All We Imagine as Light, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

97th Academy Awards Predictions: July 21st Edition

Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing is already out in limited release and the A24 title is doing pretty impressive business in its four venues before a planned August expansion. Is it doing well enough to warrant a #1 spot in the BP rankings where I’ve had it for weeks?

That is a legit question and one that I’m struggling with in this particular update. With heralded performances from Colman Domingo and Clarence Maclin, it certainly seems like the type of crowdpleaser that could take the top prize. This could be without Kwedar landing a directing nod as I’ve yet to have him in the top five. If that plays out, it would be a similar situation to 2021 and the CODA victory despite Sian Heder missing the directorial quintet.

The bottom line is this: the #1 position in BP for Sing Sing is tenuous. I’ve got it clinging to that number though I considered Steve McQueen’s Blitz, Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two, and Edward Berger’s Conclave (the first trailer for it dropped this week). Of course, we are only a month and change away from festival season kicking off with Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. Those events always assist in clearing up the picture.

There was speculation that Clint Eastwood’s Juror No. 2 may not make the 2024 calendar for Warner Bros. Even when I thought it was likely to release this fall, I didn’t have it pegged as a BP player. I did have Toni Collette listed as a potential Supporting Actress hopeful along with Nicholas Hoult in Actor and at the bottom of the listed 15 in Original Screenplay. I am dropping Juror for now and would certainly adjust if it does materialize on the schedule.

Speaking of Supporting Actress, we got our first glimpse of The Deliverance from Lee Daniels this week. The supernatural horror flick (out on Netflix in late August) is not your typical awards fare. However, I am listing Glenn Close as a possibility. It is Glenn Close after all and she managed an Oscar nod recently for the critically panned Hillbilly Elegy (where she also was up for a Razzie).

In other news, my constant speculation on category placement continues. Saoirse Ronan is now back to being a double nominee in my view for lead Actress with The Outrun and Supporting Actress for Blitz (I can’t wait until this is cleared up). Ronan’s inclusion back in the supporting derby displaces Conclave‘s Isabella Rossellini. Another unclear item is the screenplay placement for Emilia Pérez. It could be considered Adapted and that’s where I had it a few days ago, but now I’m putting it in Original Screenplay (and just barely missing a nom).

We have two significant alterations in Best Actor. While the top 3 remain the same, I am now elevating Sebastian Stan’s performance in A Different Man over Sebastian Stan’s work in The Apprentice. John David Washington (The Piano Lesson) also enters the high five for the first time. André Holland (The Actor) drops out of the quintet.

In Supporting Actor, Adam Pearson in A Different Man enters the five over Denzel Washington in Gladiator II.

You can read all the movement below for these feature length categories!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Anora (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)

14. Nosferatu (PR: 20) (+6)

15. A Real Pain (PR: 19) (+4)

16. The Apprentice (PR: 14) (-2)

17. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (E)

18. Maria (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The End (PR: 15) (-4)

20. The Fire Inside (PR: 22) (+2)

21. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

22. Hard Truths (PR: 21) (-1)

23. Dídi (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

25. His Three Daughters (PR: 23) (-2)

Dropped Out:

All We Imagine as Light

Here

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)

13. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (E)

15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Joshua Oppenheimer, The End

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 10) (+1)

10. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (E)

15. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting Actress)

Zendaya, Challengers

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)

14. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Actress

5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

15. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Toni Collette, Juror No. 2

Emily Watson, Small Things like These

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (E)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 6) (-1)

9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (E)

11. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (E)

12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 13) (E)

14. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 15) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted

7. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-1)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)

11. The End (PR: 8) (-3)

12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (+1)

13. The Apprentice (PR: 11) (-2)

14. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Challengers (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

I Saw the TV Glow

Juror No. 2

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Queer (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)

8. Hit Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Inside Out 2 (PR: 10) (E)

11. The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-1)

13. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)

14. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Here (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Emilia Pérez – moved to Original

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 3) (E)

4. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Uprising (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kneecap (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Emmanuelle (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

The Girl with the Needle

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (E)

7. Savages (PR: 7) (E)

8. Orion and the Dark (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Black Box Diaries (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daughters (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (E)

4. Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Super/Man: A Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (E)

7. No Other Land (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)

9. Union (PR: 9) (E)

10. Frida (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)

4. Conclave (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 10) (E)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Wicked (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Megalopolis (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Conclave

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Challengers (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (+1)

4. A Different Man (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maria (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Longlegs

Nightbitch

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Queer (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Blitz (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nickel Boys

Nosferatu

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+3)

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+1)

7. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 3) (-4)

8. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 5) (-3)

9. “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Claw Machine” from I Saw the TV Glow

“Release” from Trap

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (E)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

9. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Queer

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Civil War (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A Quiet Place: Day One

Nosferatu

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Here (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Blitz (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

And that adds up to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nods:

10 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

8 Nominations

Blitz, Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

Conclave, Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Gladiator II

4 Nominations

Nosferatu, The Piano Lesson, Wicked

3 Nominations

A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Story, Nickel Boys, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

2 Nominations

Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nightbitch, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

All We Imagine as Light, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

97th Academy Awards Predictions: July 13th Edition

We are beyond the midway point of 2024 so it’s time for me to forecast all feature-length film categories at the 97th Academy Awards! The result? Unsurprisingly, Dune: Part Two leads all nominees with 10 with Blitz and Emilia Pérez close behind at 9 and #1 BP selection Sing Sing at 7.

A caveat as obviously we are quite early to project certain races (Song comes to mind as does International Feature Film and Documentary Feature). Please note that all new competitions contain 10 possibilities while the acting and directing prizes list 15 (with 25 for BP). Those will likely get dwindled down around September.

We are still dealing with the matter of category placement. I’m going with the general consensus and now putting Carrie Coon’s work in His Three Daughters in lead Actress while her costar Natasha Lyonne is in supporting. Ms. Lyonne makes the cut in that race (replacing Coon).

I toyed with putting Saoirse Ronan back in Supporting Actress for Blitz since it’s been confirmed that her heralded role in The Outrun is officially out in October. Ultimately I decided to keep her in lead and I’m giving her the nom in Blitz over Outrun (slightly).

While BP remains the same, I’ve elevated Sean Baker’s direction in Anora over Mohammad Rasoulof for The Seed of the Sacred Fig. We also have Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) in Supporting Actor for the first time and that displaces Harris Dickinson (Blitz) from the quintet. With its trailer out, Gladiator II rises three sports in the BP hopefuls.

You can read all the movement and peep the new races below! I’ll have another update available before the end of July…

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (E)

12. Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-1)

14. The Apprentice (PR: 14) (E)

15. The End (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Maria (PR: 19) (+3)

17. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (E)

18. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 20) (+2)

19. A Real Pain (PR: 16) (-3)

20. Nosferatu (PR: 18) (-2)

21. Hard Truths (PR: Not Ranked)

22. The Fire Inside (PR: 21) (-1)

23. His Three Daughters (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Here (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Dídi (PR: 23) (-2)

Dropped Out:

We Live in Time

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)

9. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (E)

12. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Payal Kapadaia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)

14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting

11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters – moved to supporting

Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance

Noémie Merlant, Emmanuelle

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)

8. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

11. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tom Hanks, Here

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

4. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead

5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (E)

13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

15. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters – moved to lead

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)

7. His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The End (PR: 8) (E)

9. Dídi (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (+1)

11. The Apprentice (PR: 9) (-1)

12. Challengers (PR: 15) (+3)

13. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)

14. I Saw the TV Glow (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Juror No. 2 (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Maria

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Hit Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Inside Out 2 (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Fire Inside (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Collaboration (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Here (PR: 15) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez

2. I’m Still Here

3. The Count of Monte Cristo

4. Uprising

5. Grand Tour

Other Possibilities:

6. Simon of the Mountain

7. Evil Does Not Exist

8. Emmanuelle

9. Kneecap

10. The Girl with the Needle

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2

2. The Wild Robot

3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

4. Flow

5. Memoir of a Snail

Other Possibilities:

6. Moana 2

7. Savages

8. The Most Precious of Cargoes

9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

10. Orion and the Dark

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Black Box Diaries

2. Daughters

3. Sugarcane

4. No Other Land

5. Will & Harper

Other Possibilities:

6. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

8. Gaucho Gaucho

9. Union

10. Frida

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Blitz

3. Nosferatu

4. Anora

5. Gladiator II

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez

7. Conclave

8. Joker: Folie à Deux

9. Queer

10. Maria

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Gladiator II

4. Nosferatu

5. Blitz

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story

7. Maria

8. Megalopolis

9. Conclave

10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Blitz

3. Sing Sing

4. Anora

5. Emilia Pérez

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story

8. Gladiator II

9. Challengers

10. Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Nosferatu

3. A Different Man

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story

5. Maria

Other Possibilities:

6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

7. Joker: Folie à Deux

8. Sasquatch Sunset

9. Longlegs

10. Nightbitch

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Joker: Folie à Deux

3. Sing Sing

4. Queer

5. Emilia Pérez

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz

7. Gladiator II

8. Nickel Boys

9. Nosferatu

10. Challengers

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Emilia Pérez

2. TBD from Sing Sing

3. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

5. TBD from Moana 2

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux

7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper

8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers

9. “Claw Machine” from I Saw the TV Glow

10. “Release” from Trap

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Blitz

3. Gladiator II

4. Nosferatu

5. Wicked

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

7. Joker: Folie à Deux

8. Conclave

9. Beetlejuce Beetlejuice

10. Queer

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Gladiator II

3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

4. Blitz

5. Emilia Pérez

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters

7. Wicked

8. A Quiet Place: Day One

9. Civil War

10. Nosferatu

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Gladiator II

3. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

4. Mufasa: The Lion King

5. Here

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

7. Blitz

8. Twisters

9. Nosferatu

10. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

And, for the first time in 2024, my tally for overall nominations for various pictures are as follows:

10 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Blitz, Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

Sing Sing

6 Nominations

Anora, Conclave, Gladiator II

4 Nominations

Nosferatu, The Piano Lesson, Queer

3 Nominations

Nickel Boys

2 Nominations

Furiosa: A Mad Max Story, Maria, Mufasa: The Lion King, A Real Pain, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Wicked

1 Nomination

The Actor, The Apprentice, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Joker: Folie à Deux, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Nightbitch, No Other Land, Sugarcane, Uprising, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

Oscar Predictions: The Count of Monte Cristo

France may have a tricky decision to make when it comes to selecting their Best International Feature Film contender. One such hopeful is The Count of Monte Cristo based on the mid-19th century adventure by Alexandre Dumas. It premiered at Cannes in May and is out in its native country already. Matthieu Delaporte and Alexandre de La Patellière co-direct with a cast including Pierre Niney, Bastien Bouillon, Anaïs Demoustier, Anamaria Vartolomei, and Laurent Lafitte.

Based on a small number of reviews, Count totals 100% on RT. They’re not all raves, but are encouraging enough that France should consider it for submission. Another Cannes premiere – the animated The Most Precious of Cargoes from the Oscar winning The Artist director Michel Hazanavicius – drew a more mixed reaction. Audrey Diwan’s thriller Emmanuelle is arriving this fall and it could also be a player in the awards game.

Eight pictures from France have made the cut in the 21st century with no victors (you have to go back to 1992’s Indochine for that). Cristo could get in, but I wouldn’t count on it becoming the first winner in over three decades. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Most Precious of Cargoes

For his 2011 silent film The Artist, French filmmaker Michel Hazanavicius took the 84th Academy Awards by storm with a quintet of victories including Picture, Director, and Actor for Jean Dujardin. Follow-ups The Search, Redoubtable, and Final Cut have failed to generate awards buzz.

In his native country this year, the auteur has premiered The Most Precious of Cargoes at Cannes. The animated Holocaust drama is based on a novel from Jean-Claude Grumberg with voiceover work from Jean-Louis Trintignant, Grégory Gadebois, Denis Podalydés, and Dominique Blanc.

Reviews indicate this might face headwinds vying for the animated prize at next year’s Academy Awards. The RT score is 60% and that makes this artist’s latest an unlikely contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…