The 31st SAG Awards hosted by Kristen Bell air on Netflix this Sunday and are the last major precursor before the Oscars on March 2nd. The winners here will not influence the Academy since voting closed this week.
That said, the correlation between SAG victors and Oscar winners can be high. In Actress over the past decade, it’s 7 out of 10. For Actor – 8 out of 10. In the supporting fields, we’re looking at a whopping 9/10 for both.
At SAG, the top prize is Best Ensemble and not Best Picture. Therefore we have less frequency between those competitions matching. Yet it’s a decent 6 out of 10 including the last 3 with CODA, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Oppenheimer.
Let’s walk through each race and I’ll give you my winner pick and a runner-up. I’ll have a recap posted Sunday evening!
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
All 5 nominees here are BP hopefuls at Oscar and that’s the first occurrence of that since 2014. Unknown and the scandal plagued Pérez are long shots. The other three are all stronger possibilities. Conclave is fresh off the BAFTA coronation while Anora recently completed the hat trick of DGA/PGA/Critics Choice. That said, Wicked really over performed with nods in Actress, both supporting fields, and Stunt Ensemble. And (spoiler alert) I’m not predicting it to win any of those. It isn’t rare for the Ensemble recipient to blank everywhere else – Black Panther, Parasite, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 all did so from 2018-2020. I’ll give a slight edge to the musical adaptation.
PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED
Runner-Up: Anora
Outstanding Performance by Female Actor in a Leading Role
Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
This really has the feel of a coin flip after Madison is the recently minted BAFTA winner while Moore has the Golden Globe and Critics Choice. I just think this group of actors might be swayed by the comeback narrative. Nevertheless this seems so close.
PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE
Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Many believe this is Chalamet’s best opportunity to interrupt Brody’s potential sweep. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens since Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce from The Brutalist both missed here and are Oscar nominees. The smart money is on Brody but I’m going with the mild upset in this one.
PREDICTED WINNER: TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Runner-Up: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Don’t discount Grande with Wicked‘s nomination haul. However, Saldaña has swept thus far and seems immune to any controversy with the picture.
PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Norton is maybe the only real threat to Culkin’s seasonal sweep. I don’t believe it’ll be interrupted.
PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN
Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Gladiator II, Wicked
This could go to Dune: Part Two (though the first one lost to No Time to Die) or even Wicked, but this might be a layup for SAG to honor the movie about stunt ensembles.
The 78th edition of the BAFTAs, the U.K.’s version of the Academy Awards, occur this Sunday and it could help shape an already topsy-turvy awards season.
I’m going to give you a winner and runner-up prediction for each feature film race. I won’t spend much time pontificating as I do enough of that for the Oscars. However, it is worth noting BAFTA’s Best Film and the Academy’s Best Picture have matched just twice in the past 10 ceremonies (2020’s Nomadland, last year’s Oppenheimer). With victories at Critics Choice/PGA/DGA last weekend, Anora has anointed itself the Oscar frontrunner. And you could argue that it makes it easier not to select Sean Baker’s pic for BAFTA’s biggest prize.
That’s what I’m doing as I believe Conclave and The Brutalist could battle for BAFTA and I’m giving the slight edge to the former. We’re talking coin flip territory. Don’t get me wrong. Anora could take this and solidify its status even more so. I just have a hunch otherwise.
BAFTA/Oscar matches improve in other major races. For Director and Supporting Actress, it’s 7 out of the past 10. For Actor and Supporting Actor, it is 8 and we have 9/10 in Actress. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice have elevated Demi Moore, Adrien Brody, Zoe Saldaña, and Kieran Culkin to favorited status. The smart money is on that quartet and I’m not projecting an upset.
Here’s my rundown and I’ll have recap up Sunday!
BEST FILM
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
Predicted Winner: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Edward Berger, Conclave
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)
Predicted Winner: Demi Moore, The Substance
Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Runner-Up: Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance
Predicted Winner: Anora
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Predicted Winner: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Runner-Up: Flow
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper
Predicted Winner: No Other Land
Runner-Up: Daughters
BEST FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Predicted Winner: Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: I’m Still Here
BEST CASTING
Anora, The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Kneecap
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: Anora
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu
Predicted Winner: The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked
Predicted Winner: Wicked
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST EDITING
Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST MAKE UP & HAIR
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
Predicted Winner: The Substance
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot
Predicted Winner: The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
Predicted Winner: Wicked
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST SOUND
Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, The Substance, Wicked
Predicted Winner: Dune: Part Two
Runner-Up: Wicked
BEST SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
Predicted Winner: Better Man
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
Outstanding British Film
Bird, Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, Love Lies Bleeding, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: Kneecap
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Flow, Kensuke’s Kingdom, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Predicted Winner: The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
EE Rising Star Award
Marisa Abela, Jharrel Jerome, David Jonsson, Mikey Madison, Nabhaan Rizwan
Predicted Winner: Mikey Madison
Runner-Up: Marisa Abela
And that leaves us with these pictures generating these numbers of victories:
5 Wins
Conclave
4 Wins
The Brutalist
2 Wins
Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked
1 Win
Anora (two if you count Madison’s Rising Star victory), Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kneecap, No Other Land, A Real Pain, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
The Critics’ Choice Awards hold their 30th ceremony this Friday after being delayed nearly a month due to the California wildfires. The Chelsea Handler hosted affair could certainly provide clues as to where Oscar could go in various competitions.
For some context, here’s how many times the CCA victor in some high profile races have matched with the Academy in the previous decade:
Picture: 5/10
Director: 8/10
Actress: 6/10
Actor: 6/10
Supporting Actress: 8/10
Supporting Actor: 9/10
Unlike the Oscars where my speculation goes on for months and across scores of posts, this is quick and to the point. Here are my winner predictions with a runner-up named. I’ll have a recap up shortly after the show.
Best Picture
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Anora
Best Director
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
PREDICTED WINNER – Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
PREDICTED WINNER – Mikey Madison, Anora
Runner-Up: Demi Moore, The Substance
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic)
PREDICTED WINNER – Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
PREDICTED WINNER – Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
PREDICTED WINNER – Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
PREDICTED WINNER – Anora
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Conclave
Runner-Up: Nickel Boys
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, Flow, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
PREDICTED WINNER – Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
PREDICTED WINNER – The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Flow
BEST COMEDY
Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, My Old Ass, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma
PREDICTED WINNER – A Real Pain
Runner-Up: Saturday Night
BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Alyla Browne (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail), Zoe Ziegler (Janet Planet)
PREDICTED WINNER – Izaac Wang, Dídi
Runner-Up: Elliot Heffernan, Blitz
BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST EDITING
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, September 5
PREDICTED WINNER – Anora
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – The Substance
Runner-Up: Wicked
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST SCORE
The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot
PREDICTED WINNER – Challengers
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST SONG
“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
PREDICTED WINNER – “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: “Compress/Repress” from Challengers
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Substance, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Dune: Part Two
Runner-Up: Better Man
That means I’m projecting that these pictures win these numbers of CCAs:
4 Wins
The Brutalist
3 Wins
Anora, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
2 Wins
A Real Pain
1 Win
Challengers, Conclave, Dídi, Dune: Part Two, The Substance, The Wild Robot
And it has come down to this. On Thursday, the Academy (barring no further delays) is expected to unveil the contenders for their 97th ceremony. For nearly a year, I’ve been speculating about who and what will be nominated. Over the past few days, I penned deep dives on Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Now it’s time for the speculation to end.
Thank you, blog readers, for perusing dozens and dozens of forecast updates and individual posts on the pictures in contention.
Let’s get to it! Here are my predictions for all feature-film categories with a runner-up named in each.
BEST PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
A Real Pain
The Substance
Wicked
Runner-Up: Sing Sing
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Edward Berger, Conclave
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Runner-Up: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Runner-Up: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Runner-Up: Daniel Craig, Queer
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariane Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Runner-Up: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
The Substance
Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Kneecap
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Vermiglio
Runner-Up: Flow
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Moana 2
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Daughters
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Sugarcane
Will & Harper
Runner-Up: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST FILM EDITING
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Anora
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist
Challengers
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
Runner-Up: The Wild Robot
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
“Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
“Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked
Runner-Up: Gladiator II
BEST SOUND
Blitz
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Wicked
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Twisters
Runner-Up: Wicked
That works out to a final tally of these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Conclave
7 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, Wicked
5 Nominations
Anora, Nosferatu, The Substance
3 Nominations
A Real Pain
2 Nominations
The Apprentice, Gladiator II, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio
I will, of course, have reaction up Thursday with how I did and some commentary.
Nominations for the 78th BAFTA Awards, airing February 16th, were unveiled today and we have another key Oscar precursor to pontificate about. I went 91 for 123 with Conclave (as I forecasted) leading all pictures in contention. It even managed to get 12 nods and that’s ahead of my call of 11. Let’s walk through each race with how I did and some general commentary.
Best Film
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez
How I Did: 4/5
I predicted The Substance over Unknown, which continues its highly impressive precursor run. This should come down to The Brutalist vs. Conclave unless the Brits really fall for Anora or Pérez.
Outstanding British Film
Bird, Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, Love Lies Bleeding, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
How I Did: 9/10
I thought Civil War would make the cut instead of Love Lies Bleeding. As the only Best Film contender in this bunch, Conclave has an obvious edge.
Outstanding Debut By a British Writer, Director or Producer
Oof. I went with Bring Them Down, Grand Theft Hamlet, and The Taste of Mango over Hoard, my alternate Monkey Man, and Sister Midnight. This is a pretty easy pick with Kneecap out front.
Children’s and Family Film
Flow, Kensuke’s Kingdom, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/4
I went with Young Woman and the Sea over Kingdom. This new category could go to Robot, but watch out for Flow or even Wallace.
Film Not in the English Language
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
How I Did: 4/5
I called a bit of an upset with La Chimera popping up in this quintet instead of Fig. The safe money is on Pérez for the victory.
Documentary
Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
No Other Land has dominated early critics groups and is the favorite.
Animated Film
Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/4
Like Children’s and Family Film, this could be a three-way battle between Flow, Wallace, and Robot. I predicted Memoir of a Snail instead of Inside Out 2.
Director
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
How I Did: 5/6
I feel like Villeneuve needed this to say viable in the Oscar convo and he gets in over my pick of Payal Kapadia for All We Imagine as Light. Even if it doesn’t win Best Film, Corbet is likely in the lead. Yet I wouldn’t discount Berger with the nomination leading Conclave.
Original Screenplay
Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
This is where Anora could get a prize.
Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
How I Did: 4/5
Sing Sing joins the party over Wicked. This should be a Conclave win.
Actress
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)
How I Did: 5/6
I wouldn’t ignore the possibility of a surprise with Jean-Baptiste, but should be between Madison and Moore. Ronan finally gets some precursor attention over my pick of Kate Winslet in Lee.
Actor
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 5/6
Mr. Grant makes the sextet over the rather unexpected omission of Daniel Craig in Queer. Expect either Brody or Chalamet for the gold.
Supporting Actress
Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
How I Did: 4/6
Saldaña is the frontrunner. Curtis (fresh off her SAG nod) and Gomez compete instead of Michele Austin (Hard Truths) and Margaret Qualley (The Substance). Except for Grande and Saldaña, the battle for the three slots in this race at the Oscars is fascinating with several performers in contention.
Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 5/6
I thought maybe Denzel Washington would get his (somehow) first BAFTA nomination for Gladiator II. It didn’t happen and went to Clarence Maclin instead. Culkin is the frontrunner with Pearce as a potential spoiler.
Casting
Anora, The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Kneecap
How I Did: 2/5
This unpredictable race proved to be just that. I went with Blitz, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked and not The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, and Kneecap. The winner? Your guess is as good as mine. Let’s say Anora for now.
Cinematography
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu
How I Did: 4/5
Perez over Anora with The Brutalist or perhaps Conclave out front.
Costume Design
Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 2/5
Ouch. I said Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, and Gladiator II and not Blitz, A Complete Unknown or Conclave. This should be Wicked.
Editing
Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Kneecap
How I Did: 3/5
Predicted Challengers (which was blanked) and The Substance over Dune and Kneecap. Conclave could take this.
Make-Up and Hair
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
Pérez over Beetlejuice as The Substance seeks the victory.
Original Score
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/5
Nosferatu and Robot over Blitz and The Substance. Like Best Film, this might be between The Brutalist and Conclave.
Production Design
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
The Brutalist over Gladiator II (which had a poor showing today). This could be Wicked.
Sound
Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 2/5
Some real surprises here as Civil War, A Complete Unknown, and Emilia Pérez are out with Blitz, Gladiator II, and Wicked in. This should be Dune.
Special Visual Effects
Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
Wicked instead of Alien: Romulus as Dune should get this (though Better Man has slight upset potential).
And there you have it! Keep an eye on the blog as we get closer to final Oscar predictions coming Sunday…
My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
This third write-up brings us to Best Supporting Actress. If you missed the previous two posts covering Actress and Supporting Actor, you can find them here:
I often refer to the “pen” theory on this blog when discussing my Oscar forecasts. Those are performers and pictures whose nominations can be written in pen. For the 97th Academy Awards in Supporting Actress, I believe there’s two surefire selections.
Pop star Ariana Grande’s turn as Glinda has bewitched audiences worldwide. She’s received a key quartet of noms at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, and the BAFTA long list. Her inclusion appears assured.
The same can be said for Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez and I have her placed in 1st. That’s because Saldaña has also achieved the aforementioned precursors with a victory at the Globes.
And then it’s a bit of a free for all with 8 performers, in my view, vying for 3 slots. Before we discuss them, let’s take a moment to mention some actresses whose nods once seemed possible. Then their pictures debuted and either the movies were looked at as disappointments or their roles weren’t significant enough to warrant awards buzz. I’m talking about Lady Gaga from Joker: Folie à Deux, Toni Collettee in Juror #2, Lashana Lynch from Bob Marley: One Love, and Hong Chau in Kinds of Kindness, to name a few.
Despite making the BAFTA long list, don’t look for Adriana Paz in Emilia Pérez to contend with the focus on cast mates Karla Sofia Gascón in lead and Saldaña and Selena Gomez (we’ll get to her shortly) here. Emily Watson also made the BAFTA cut in Small Things like These but isn’t expected to factor into the Academy derby. Same with Michele Austin in Hard Truths.
The next group were once seen as viable and have not made it to the precursors. Their nominations are not totally impossible. However, they would be rightly seen as major spoilers. I would include Joan Chen (Dídi), Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters), Saoirse Ronan (Blitz), and Elle Fanning (A Complete Unknown) in this lot.
We return to the 8 performers circling three Oscar chairs. They are: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?
Monica Barbaro’s performance as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown has only popped up in one of the 4 previously discussed precursors. In her favor… it’s the most recent at SAG and Unknown has generally been over performing this season. I don’t have her predicted at press time and she’s 5th out of these 8 possibilities.
Jamie Lee Curtis, two years after winning this prize for Everything Everywhere All at Once, is in the mix once again for The Last Showgirl. She could also benefit from recency bias. While she didn’t factor in at the Globes or Critics Choice, her name has been called in the last few days with the BAFTA long list and SAG. I have her 6th out of the 8 possibilities.
Danielle Deadwyler has the disadvantage of The Piano Lesson not being a Best Picture contender or being a threat for a nomination anywhere else. The SAG nod this week kept her in the conversation and she also received Critics Choice. Two years ago, she was notably snubbed for her lead performance in Till and that could assist her now. I have her 3rd out of the 8 possibilities and just getting in.
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor in Nickel Boys has only shown up at Critics Choice and the movie itself may or may not make the BP dance. While her standing in the eventual quintet looks shaky, I wouldn’t totally discount her and she’s 7th out of the 8 possibilities.
Selena Gomez is undoubtedly in the shadow of costar Saldaña though she’s in the BAFTA long list and was nominated at the Globes. A SAG nod would have caused her to be higher, but she’s 8th out of the 8 possibilities.
Felicity Jones made BAFTA and Globes and was a surprise no-show at Critics Choice and SAG. I suspect The Brutalist‘s eventual standing at Oscar helps and I have her 1st among these 8 possibilities.
Margaret Qualley is nowhere near as guaranteed an Academy invite as her Substance lead Demi Moore. Of the four precursors, she has only missed SAG. I didn’t predict her there and I currently have her 4th of these 8 possibilities. That would leave her barely on the outside looking in.
Finally, despite a short amount of screen time in Conclave, Isabella Rossellini also only missed SAG. Unlike Qualley, I have her 3rd of the 8 hopefuls and just making the quintet.
OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Supporting Actress for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a deep dive into Best Actor up next!
My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
Let’s begin with Best Actress as it might be the most tricky of all to figure out (though the supporting competitions are up there too). I believe there are three performers whose nominations you can write down in pen.
For months, I’ve had Mikey Madison (Anora) listed in 1st place for her work in Anora. She’s been nominated everywhere she needs to be – Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, the BAFTA long list. The film is definitely in the top 5 of Best Picture hopefuls. In other words, she’s in.
That said, just yesterday, I slid her from 1st to 2nd in favor of Demi Moore in The Substance. That’s mainly because Moore was victorious over Madison at the Golden Globes in the Actress (Musical or Comedy) category. Furthermore, Hollywood loves a comeback story. That is present with Demi. She managed all the aforementioned precursors that Madison has and there’s a win in her favor. I do believe the Oscar could go to either of them, but this seems reminiscent of Best Actor in 2022. Austin Butler (Elvis) was the young upstart like Madison. Brendan Fraser (The Whale) was the once major movie star in a comeback vehicle that also involved heavy makeup work. Fraser got the gold.
I would put Moore and Madison’s chances of making the final five at 100% or at least 99.9999999%. The third “pen” pick is Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez. She would make history as the Academy’s first trans nominee. Gascón also made the cut at the key precursors and shared a Cannes victory for Best Actress with her costars. Some prognosticators have started wondering whether she’s a guaranteed nominee. While she’s maybe not a total certainty like our previous actresses, I’d say it’s really close. After all, Emilia Pérez might get the most nominations of any picture this time around. I don’t see that occurring without Emilia Pérez being in contention.
And then… it gets complicated. Before we move to the several performers jockeying for two spots, let’s pour one out for these actresses whose campaigns never got off the ground. In some cases, the films underperformed significantly with critics and audiences. In others, their studios didn’t mount an offensive drive for their inclusion. Some examples are Florence Pugh (We Live in Time), Jodie Comer (The Bikeriders), Ryan Destiny (The Fire Inside), Daisy Ridley (Young Woman and the Sea), Regina King (Shirley), Lily-Rose Depp (Nosferatu), and Marisa Abela (Back to Black). Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) and June Squibb (Thelma) received a little more attention. However, they failed to show up in any significant other awards lists.
After that lengthy group, there’s a next level. These are actresses who may have shown up in some precursors or long lists, but aren’t expected to materialize in the Oscar quintet. Their chances aren’t completely out of reach like those in the previous paragraph. Yet it’s close. I would put Julianne Moore’s The Room Next Door costar Tilda Swinton in this class. Same with Zendaya (Challengers) and Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun).
This leaves us with eight performances vying for two spots: Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), and Kate Winslet (Lee). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?
Amy Adams has the narrative of being long overdue for an Oscar. Despite six nominations, she’s yet to hear her name called. On paper, this seemed like a strong possibility but so-so reviews for Nightbitch have not helped. Despite a Globe nod and being in the BAFTA long list, I have her 8th of these 8 possibilities.
I might be more inclined to put Anderson in my five if it weren’t for Demi Moore’s comeback narrative. The Baywatch starlet is getting career best notices for this indie drama even if the film itself is drawing more mixed reactions. Her Globe nomination in Actress (Drama) wasn’t a huge surprise. The SAG nod this week was and it does increase her viability. I have her 5th of these 8 possibilities.
Cynthia Erivo is starring in one of the year’s largest blockbusters with Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTA long list preceding a potential Oscar nod. If she were to win, Erivo would achieve EGOT status as she already has an Emmy, Grammy, and Tony on her resume. The only question mark is whether the amount of performers could squeeze her out. I doubt it. Erivo is ranked 1st of these 8 possibilities.
Marianne Jean-Baptiste is receiving plenty of critics prizes for her role in Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths. Critics Choice and the BAFTA long list are in her corner though she notably missed SAG and the Globes. Leigh has a history of getting his actors nominated. Seeing her in the eventual quintet would not surprise, but she’s 4th of my 8 possibilities at press time.
Angelina Jolie’s inclusion for Pablo Larrain’s Maria seemed assured at one point after the picture premiered in Venice. In hindsight, the troubling signs could have been evident immediately. She did not take Best Actress at that festival. Since then, she’s missed SAG and the BAFTA long list while competing for the Globe and being nominated for Critics Choice. Her most notable blow came at the Globes. She was favored to win Best Actress in a Drama but fell short to Fernanda Torres. I still think she could get in though I have her just on the outside looking in and 3rd of my 8 possibilities.
For her performance in Babygirl, Nicole Kidman did win Best Actress at Venice and Globe and BAFTA long list spots followed. The recent snubs at Critics Choice and SAG are hard to ignore. She’s 6th among these 8 possibilities.
Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here had no major other precursors to her credit besides the Globe. No BAFTA long list. No Critics Choice. And no SAG attention this week. That win at the Globes, though, looms large and it occurred just as Academy voting was underway. That’s why she’s 2nd of these 8 possibilities.
Finally, Kate Winslet as Lee showed up at the Globes and BAFTA long list. Reviews for the project itself aren’t overly impressive. Winslet could get in because, well, she’s Kate Winslet. Nevertheless she’s 7th of these 8 possibilities.
Whew. OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Actress for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a dive into Supporting Actor up next!
Though it’s been less than two weeks since my previous Oscar forecast, a lot has occurred in that relatively short time frame. The Golden Globes aired. The BAFTA long lists were unveiled. SAG Awards nominations came out as did the DGA. These developments and more (including various critics groups announcing winners) have reshaped the race as we approach Oscar nomination morning.
Those nominations will be known on Sunday, January 19th. That is two days after the planned January 17th announcement and the delay was made due to the wildfires ravaging southern California. This is no surprise as the fires have also delayed PGA nominations and the airdate of the Critics Choice Awards.
The first Oscar predictions of 2025 will be my penultimate one and the last one that ranks contenders in the various categories. My plan is to have my final predictions up on Wednesday, January 15th.
So what are the biggest developments over the last few days? Demi Moore’s Golden Globe victory in Actress (Musical or Comedy) for The Substance causes me to elevate her to #1 in my Actress rankings over Mikey Madison (Anora), who had been perched in the top position for many weeks. The Directors Guild usually matches the Oscars 4 for 5, but the fact that they left off Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) helps cement his Oscar exclusion. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), fresh off his Globe victory, returns to #1 position over Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) who missed at SAG.
There are performers who could benefit from SAG love. They include Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis from The Last Showgirl, Jonathan Bailey in Wicked, and Jeremy Strong from The Apprentice. There are snubbed performers from SAG or who lost at the Globes whose Oscar inclusion seems more doubtful. The most notable example is Angelina Jolie (Maria) but the list also includes Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II), and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).
Indeed the Best Actress derby has been dramatically reshaped with Moore elevating from 3rd to 1st, Jolie dropping from 2nd to 6th, and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) entering my predicted quintet over Jolie and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths).
More changes are present in Supporting Actor as Yura Borisov (Anora) enters my five with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) out. I have Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) still clinging to a nod though Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) appears hot on his heels.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Anora (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)
6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sing Sing (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)
12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (+2)
13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-1)
14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (E)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)
8. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)
5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A Different Man
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-2)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hit Man
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Kneecap (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Flow (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Universal Language (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dahomey (PR: 10) (+1)
10. From Ground Zero (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)
9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daughters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)
7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Dahomey (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Union (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Hollywoodgate (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Conclave (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (+1)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maria (PR: 4) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Wicked
Best Costume Design
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Substance (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)
10. September 5 (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Nickel Boys
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)
4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Challengers (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Emila Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Nosferatu (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Blitz (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)
4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Emila Pérez (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Wild Robot (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Alien: Romulus (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Better Man (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alien: Romulus (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Twisters (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)
That works out to these movies receiving these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
Conclave
8 Nominations
Wicked
6 Nominations
Anora, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two
5 Nominations
The Substance
4 Nominations
Gladiator II, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
I’m Still Here, A Real Pain, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Porcelain War, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Prior to its February 23rd airdate on Netflix with host Kristen Bell, nominations for the 31st SAG Awards were unveiled this morning. The planned in-person event revealing the nominees was scuttled due to the wildfires in southern California and were delivered via press release instead.
Bottom line – I went 22 for 30 in my predictions and there were some genuine shockers (particularly in the supporting contests). Let’s walk through each race with how I did and some commentary.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Pretty happy about this result! Unlike most SAG years, all five contenders here should make the list of the 10 BP hopefuls at the Oscars. Considering that Wicked led all pictures in terms of nominations, it could be out front though I wouldn’t discount Pérez.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
How I Did: 4/5
Angelina Jolie (Maria) is having a tough season lately and her Oscar chances are in serious jeopardy. She didn’t make the BAFTA long list and fell short to Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) at the Golden Globes in the dramatic lead actress competition. Now she misses the cut with SAG and it’s Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) getting in. Could Moore’s momentum after her Globes victory continue here or will it be Madison emerging victorious?
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Clarence Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
How I Did: 4/5
The core four (Brody, Chalamet, Domingo, Fiennes) are present but it is Daniel Craig getting the nod over my pick of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice. That fifth slot is up for grabs at Oscar while Brody and Chalamet could compete for the ultimate prize.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
How I Did: 3/5
The supporting races are where SAG really provide some surprises this time around with Barbaro and Curtis. They’re in over my forecasted nominees Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave). I would’ve figured Margaret Qualley (The Substance) and Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) had better shots than Barbaro/Curtis so this is a bit out of left field. Expect this to be between Saldaña and Grande.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 2/5 (oof)
And we’re even more in unanticipated territory with Supporting Actor as Bailey, Borisov, and Strong (who was my alternate) are in with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) out. I genuinely am surprised that SAG left out Pearce and Washington. The former is considered Culkin’s main competitor this season. That may no longer be the case as Culkin could sweep the upcoming ceremonies. Side note – not a great morning for The Brutalist with Brody being the pic’s sole nominee.
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Gladiator II, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
I went with Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga over Wicked. I would think The Fall Guy, which is about stunt performers, could be the selection.
And there you have it, folks! Keep an eye on the blog for all Oscar precursor chatter…
Gerard Butler’s sequel Den of Thieves 2: Pantera is not the only fresh wide release this weekend, but I believe it’s the sole newbie that will be in the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on Thieves here:
The follow-up to the 2018 heist thriller could see a start in the low double digits to possibly low teens. That’s not exactly an impressive start, but it should be enough to manage the #2 spot just behind Mufasa in this sleepy January frame.
That’s based on the assumption that current champ Mufasa: The Lion King falls in the low to mid 40s with Sonic the Hedgehog 3 dwindling closer to 50%. Nosferatu may experience the smallest decline (perhaps mid 30s) with Moana 2 rounding out the top five.
As mentioned, there are other newcomers debuting or expanding wide. That includes the Telugu-language action thriller Game Changer, The Last Showgirl with Pamela Anderson, and monkey themed Robbie Williams biopic Better Man. I’m not envisioning any breaking into that high five so here’s how I see the chart playing out:
1. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $14.4 million
2. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million
3. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million
4. Nosferatu
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
5. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
Box Office Results (January 3-5)
The New Year rang in with holiday leftovers and Mufasa: The Lion King continuing its perch atop the chart. Disney’s product took in $23.4 million, a shade below my $25.1 million forecast. The three-week total stands at $168 million.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was runner-up with $21.3 million, on target with my $20.9 million call. The Sega property’s three-week gross is $187 million.
Nosferatu was third in its sophomore frame with $13 million, in line with my $13.4 million projection. The 40% drop for the horror title is commendable and it’s up to $69 million with over $100 million when counting worldwide earnings.
Animated sequel Moana 2 was fourth with $12.4 million (I said $13 million) for a six-week tally of $425 million.
Wicked was fifth and it dropped further in its seventh outing than I figured at $9.9 million compared to my $14.2 million estimate. Nevertheless the Golden Globe recipient for Cinematic & Box Office Achievement has amassed $450 million.
Finally, A Complete Unknown was sixth in weekend #2 with $8.1 million. I went a little higher at $9.3 million as the Bob Dylan biopic has made $41 million.
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