Blogger’s Update (10/03): With the announcement that White Bird is only hitting just over 1000 screens, I’m downgrading my prediction from $3.1 million to $1.5 million
White Bird at last flies into theaters after significant delays on October 4th. The period drama is a prequel to 2017’sblockbuster Wonder. Like that hit, it’s based on source material from R.J. Palacio. Marc Forster directs and the cast includes Ariella Glaser, Orlando Schwerdt, Bryce Gheisar, Gillian Anderson, and Helen Mirren.
Lionsgate originally was slated to release Bird in September 2022 and then in summer 2023 before finally landing on this date. The distributor has seemingly been conducting a yard sale of flops over the past several weeks such as Borderlands, The Crow, The Killer’s Game, Never Let Go, and Megalopolis.
I don’t see White Bird reversing the trend. Wonder was seven years ago, but a bigger problem might be that audiences aren’t aware of the prequel’s existence. Like the aforementioned features, hitting $5 million out of the gate might be a challenge.
White Bird opening weekend prediction: $1.5 million
For my Joker: Folie à Deux prediction, click here:
Hasbro’s animated Transformers One looks to dislodge Beetlejuice Beetlejuice from its #1 perch and Halle Berry’s horror pic Never Let Go hopes to bring in genre fans this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Transformers should manage to assemble a first place showing in the middle to higher 30s. Expectations aren’t as high for this compared to the live-action action pics, but decent reviews and kid business should help.
Lionsgate has had a string of flops over the past few weeks (The Killer’s Game being the latest) and I expect that to continue with Never Let Go. My mid single digits projection for it should mean a fourth place premiere.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, after ruling the charts for the past two weeks, should ease close to 50% for second place. See No Evil may also see a drop in the low to mid 40s for third with Deadpool & Wolverine rounding out the top five in its ninth outing.
Here’s how I have it playing out:
1. Transformers One
Predicted Gross: $35.4 million
2. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Predicted Gross: $26.7 million
3. Speak No Evil
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
4. Never Let Go
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
5. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
Box Office Results (September 13-15)
It was a lucky Friday the 13th frame for Tim Burton and company as Beetlejuice Beetlejuice held up stronger than I assumed in its sophomore frame. The long in development sequel grossed $51.3 million compared to my $40.9 million take. After ten days, its impressive haul stands at $187 million.
Psychological thriller Speak No Evil with James McAvoy debuted on the lower end of its anticipated range at $11.3 million in second. I was more generous at $14.6 million. With a B+ Cinemascore (solid for its genre), it may hold up fairly well in the weekends to come.
Deadpool & Wolverine was third with $5.2 million, a tad more than my $4.4 million call. After 8 weeks, the MCU juggernaut has earned $621 million.
I incorrectly did not have hot button documentary Am I Racist? in my top five but it performed impressively in fourth with $4.5 million.
Reagan was in the five spot with $2.9 million (I said $3.1 million) for $23 million after three weeks in play.
Finally, the aforementioned The Killer’s Game with Dave Bautista was DOA in sixth with $2.6 million. I gave it slightly more credit with a $3.7 million forecast.
Never Let Go tries to avoid a recent Lionsgate curse when it opens this Friday. That might be unavoidable for the Alexandre Aja (Crawl) directed horror flick starring Halle Berry. Percy Daggs IV, Anthony B. Jenkins, Matthew Kevin Anderson, Christin Park, and Stephanie Lavigne costar.
The survival tale seems to be flying considerably under the radar. As mentioned, Lionsgate had been experiencing an onslaught of financial underachievers over the last few weeks thanks to Borderlands, The Crow, and The Killer’s Game.
It also won’t help that genre fans have had plenty of material in 2024 and Speak No Evil will be in its sophomore frame. Mid single digits is where I’m going with this.
Never Let Go opening weekend prediction: $4.7 million
Psychological thriller Speak No Evil with James McAvoy and action comedy The Killer’s Game starring Dave Bautista hope to get lucky with audiences this weekend as Beetlejuice Beetlejuice looks to reign supreme for a second frame. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Evil appears poised for an easy second place start as I have the Blumhouse remake of a 2022 Danish flick in the low teens.
As for The Killer’s Game, I look for it to continue a tepid streak for distributor Lionsgate in the mid single digits. That could mean fourth place with holdovers Deadpool & Wolverine in third and Reagan in fifth.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice impressed in its opening frame (more on that below). That business might be prove to be front loaded. A low to mid 60s sophomore slide is likely and understandable.
Here’s how I have it all shaking out:
1. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Predicted Gross: $40.9 million
2. Speak No Evil
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million
3. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
4. The Killer’s Game
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
5. Reagan
Predicted Gross: $3.1 million
Box Office Results (September 6-8)
Tim Burton’s long in the making sequel Beetlejuice Beetlejuice achieved the second best September start in box office history with $111 million. That puts it in between 2017’s It ($123 million) and its 2019 follow-up ($91 million). While it didn’t quite match my $115.7 million prediction, audiences were clearly primed for Michael Keaton and Winona Ryder’s returns to their iconic characters with Jenna Ortega joining the proceedings.
Deadpool & Wolverine was the runner-up with $7 million (I was higher at $9.8 million) for $613 million after seven weeks of slashing 2024 records.
Reagan held up well in third with $4.8 million. My projection? $4.8 million! In two weeks, the biopic has made $18 million.
Alien: Romulus was fourth at $3.9 million (I said $4.5 million) to bring the four-week tally to $97 million.
I incorrectly did not have It Ends with Us in the top five, but it managed fifth with $3.7 million. It has totaled $141 million in five weeks.
Lionsgate is looking for heavy multiplex play for The Killer’s Game when it opens September 13th. The action comedy from director J.J. Perry stars Dave Bautista as an assassin fending off competitors. Sofia Boutella, Terry Crews, Bautista’s Guardians of the Galaxy costar Pom Klementieff, Scott Adkins, Marko Zaror, and Ben Kingsley costar.
It’s been a rough go for Lionsgate recently. In August, the studio had two of the summer’s biggest busts with Borderlands and The Crow. I don’t see Game reversing their fortunes in early autumn. Out on approximately 2500 screens, mid single digits seems likely.
The Killer’s Game opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million
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