Oscar Predictions: La Grazia

Since 2013, three Italian pictures have made the cut for Best International Feature Film at the Oscars. Two of them were directed by Paolo Sorrentino – 2013’s The Great Beauty won and The Hand of God nominated in 2021 was in the contending quintet (the non-Sorrentino hopeful was 2023’s lo capitano). The writer/director hopes to be in the mix again via La Grazia which kicked off the Venice Film Festival today.

Toni Servillo, Anna Ferzetti, and Massimo Venturiello star in the politically charged drama and early reaction is mostly fresh with 86% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 70 Metacritic. This is Sorrentino’s follow-up to last year’s Parthenope which was considered a misfire by many critics. While La Grazia is faring better, this is certainly no shoo-in for inclusion if Italy chooses it as their selection for IFF. Competition is already strong considering Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, No Other Choice, and others that will inevitably materialize. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Vermiglio

Vermiglio premiered in its native country at the Venice Film Festival before making it to North America at Toronto’s fest. Written and directed by Maura Delpero, the drama stars Guiseppe De Domenico, Tommaso Ragno, Martina Scrinzi, and Roberta Rovelli.

The period piece has been announced at Italy’s hopeful for International Feature Film as they hope it’s their fifth pic to make the final five in the 21st century. The only winner in that time frame is 2013’s The Great Beauty while 2005’s The Beast in the Heart, 2021’s The Hand of God, and 2023’s lo capitano also vied for the prize.

With two nods in the three years, Vermiglio‘s chances are decent but far from assured. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 90% with 77 on Metacritic. Right now it seems like there will be plenty of pics fighting for the fourth and fifth spots in IFF behind Emilia Pérez, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, and I’m Still Here (though I should note this branch can be unpredictable). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Parthenope

Italian filmmaker Paolo Sorrentino’s filmography has experienced success at the Oscars. In 2013, The Great Beauty took the prize for International Feature Film (then titled Best Foreign Language Film). 2021’s The Hand of God was up for IFF and ultimately fell short to Drive My Car. His latest is Parthenope which has premiered at Cannes.

The Naples set drama stars newcomer Celeste Dalla Porta in the title role alongside Stefenia Sandrelli, Gary Oldman, Silvio Orlando, Luisa Ranieri, and Isabella Ferrari.

Reviews from the Riviera aren’t pretty with many suggesting it’s the auteur’s darkest hour… or rather two hours and change. With a Rotten Tomatoes score of 15%, I doubt Italy will bother to submit this as their contender in the international competition. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars Predictions: Io capitano

The Italian drama Io capitano follows the trek of two Senegalese men (Seydou Sarr and Moustapha Fall) to Europe. From Matteo Garrone (who last made Pinocchio with Roberto Benigni), the film premiered at Venice earlier this year and earned its maker the Silver Lion Prize (essentially Best Director). The nine reviews thus far on Rotten Tomatoes stand at 100%.

Already announced as Italy’s selection for Best International Feature, capitano will attempt to be the third feature from that nation to be nominated in the 21st century. The Great Beauty won the race in 2013 and The Hand of God was up in 2021.

While all write-ups thus far are positive, I’m not sure they’re strong enough that it will make the final five. I had this listed at #10 in my new update yesterday. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: L’Immensita

If there’s an actress out there who I would say has almost quietly received four Oscar nominations, it’s Penelope Cruz. She won Supporting Actress in 2008 for Vicky Christina Barcelona, but was nominated the following year in that race for Nine. That’s in addition to two lead nods for 2006’s Volver and last year’s Parallel Mothers. 

At the Venice Film Festival, the quadruple contender stars in L’Immensita. The Italian family drama finds Cruz playing the mother of a boy (Luana Giuliani) grappling with gender identity. With her character experiencing mental health issues, this is said to be a juicy role for Emanuele Crialese’s effort.

There’s not many reviews out yet, but the handful of them available has its Rotten Tomatoes score at 100%. It will be interesting to see if Italy selects this as their International Feature Film designee. The Eight Mountains (which premiered at Cannes over the summer) is another possibility. The nation has had two films in the IFF derby over the past decade: 2013’s The Great Beauty (which won) and last year’s The Hand of God. If L’Immensita is the pick, the early word-of-mouth suggests it could make the eventual shortlist. Could Cruz be in the mix for a fifth nod? That’s doubtful though she was able to pull off that Parallel Mothers mention in a crowded 2021 Best Actress field. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Hand of God

As my weekly Oscar predictions have progressed, the #10 spot (remember there will be ten fixed nominees starting in 2021) has been a revolving door. Last week it was Paolo Sorrentino’s The Hand of God. The Italian filmmaker’s autobiographical tale of his youth comes eight years after his The Great Beauty won the Academy Award for Best Foreign Language Film (now International Feature Film). It is slated to hit Netflix worldwide on December 15.

God has now screened at the Venice Film Festival and the critical reaction is a bit varied. Based on a smattering of reviews, it stands at 75% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some claim this is his best work. Others are decidedly more mixed. This leads me to believe that I may have been a tad overzealous when I put it in my top ten.

The Venice buzz could be enough to nab it a slot among the international flicks. However, there’s already 3 hopefuls (Flee, Parallel Mothers, A Hero) that I’d probably place before God. As far as breaking into the big race, don’t count on it. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…

Venice Film Festival: A Preview

The Venice Film Festival kicks off on Wednesday this week. For this blogger, it means my Oscar speculation will kick into overdrive. You can anticipate a flurry of Oscar Watch posts starting September 1st and continuing throughout the month as the Telluride fest transpires over Labor Day weekend. Toronto is right behind beginning September 9th.

To put it all in perspective, the eventual Best Picture winner has premiered at this trio of festivals more often than not lately. Nomadland (last year’s victor) started off in Venice and won the Golden Lion, which is the equivalent to BP. The same narrative holds true for 2017’s The Shape of Water. 2018’s Green Book debuted at Toronto. 2016’s Moonlight premiered at Telluride. 2015’s Spotlight rolled out at Venice and 2014’s Birdman opened that festival. You get the idea.

So what are the highest profile titles jockeying for position? What are the movies that could become instant hopefuls for the Academy’s attention? I’m glad you asked. Let’s take a look, shall we?

The Power of the Dog

In 1993, director Jane Campion had her last major Oscar contender with The Piano. It won Best Actress for Holly Hunter, Supporting Actress for Anna Paquin, and Original Screenplay for Campion. She became the first female ever to be nominated for Best Director (losing that race and Picture to Steven Spielberg’s Schindler’s List).

Her latest is The Power of the Dog and it will be a mainstay on the festival circuit before its theatrical release in November that’s followed by an early December Netflix bow. Dog is, on paper, the film that prognosticators like me are looking at as an early favorite.

In my previous weekly rankings, I have Dog listed at #1 in Picture, Director, Actor (Cumberbatch), and Adapted Screenplay. Dunst and Plemons are, respectively, ranked second in Supporting Actress and Actor.

We will know quite soon whether it lives up to the hype.

Parallel Mothers

Pedro Almodovar’s latest will open the proceedings on Tuesday. The Spanish language drama stars Penelope Cruz and she could be a factor in what appears to be a potentially crowded Best Actress derby. Original Screenplay and Best International Feature Film could also be races where it contends. Just two years back, the auteur’s previous work Pain and Glory was nominated in the international competition and it nabbed Antonio Banderas a Best Actor nod.

Additionally, Cruz and Banderas star in the comedy Official Competition, which is also premiering here. It may also be one to keep an eye on.

Spencer

Speaking of that Best Actress race which features numerous players, that holds true with Spencer. Pablo Larrain’s biopic about Princess Diana may propel Kristen Stewart to her first nomination. Larrain directed Natalie Portman and she made the final five as Jackie from 2016. Will Stewart break through on the awards front after a series of post Twilight acclaimed roles? The answer is coming.

The Hand of God

Another Netflix property is this Italian drama from Paolo Sorrentino, whose 2013 effort The Great Beauty dominated the foreign language races at the Oscars and Globes. His latest could be another contender and I will be keeping an eye on whether it could branch out to Best Picture (like Roma and Parasite recently did).

The Card Counter

Paul Schrader’s last pic First Reformed received an Original Screenplay nod for its filmmaker. His latest crime drama features Oscar Isaac, Tiffany Haddish, and Willem Dafoe. I haven’t had this featured at all in my weekly predictions, but a splashy Venice rollout could alter that.

Dune

The Card Counter cannot claim the title of being Oscar Isaac’s most breathlessly awaited arrival. That would be Dune from Denis Villeneuve as the sci-fi epic is debuting out of competition. Originally slated for 2020, Dune could be a major awards threat in lots of categories (especially the technical ones). Whether it is Best Picture material will soon be established.

The Lost Daughter

Maggie Gyllenhaal directs Olivia Colman in the Netflix drama slated for late December. Colman has been nominated in two out of the three years at the big show. She won in 2018 for The Favourite in Best Actress and got a mention in supporting last year for The Father. 

Last Night in Soho

Edgar Wright psychological horror experience features Thomasin McKenzie and Anya Taylor-Joy (coming off her heralded role on The Queen’s Gambit). The genre is not one usually geared to Oscar love, but you never know.

The Last Duel

Ridley Scott has not one, but two competitors seeking awards attention in 2021. The most obvious is House of Gucci. The other is this historical drama with Jodie Comer (another possibility in Actress), Matt Damon, Adam Driver, and Ben Affleck. We will soon know whether Scott has two pics in the mix.

And that’s just some of what I’m watching out for, folks! Get ready as the Oscar picture should become clearer in the coming days and I’ll be here to cover it…