Warner Bros Pictures attempts a summer counterprogramming move with Jersey Boys, Clint Eastwood’s adaptation of the hugely successful Broadway musical. The pic tells the story of Frankie Valli and the Four Seasons group and the studio is hopeful that adults will turn their attention to this after a healthy heaping of comic book flicks, comedies, and action spectacles over the last few weeks.

With a cast of mostly unknowns save for Christopher Walken, Jersey Boys is mostly relying on its built-in audience who’ve seen the Broadway hit. We’ve certainly seen our share of pictures based on Broadway musicals that have been successful over recent years, including Chicago, Dreamgirls, Mamma Mia, and Les Miserables. On the other hand, Rock of Ages bombed two summers ago with only $38 million domestic.

The ceiling for Jersey Boys is around $25 million as I see it. If it gets beyond that, it would be quite a surprise. This type of adult fare is likely to succeed or fail based on how audiences like it and whether or not it receives small declines in subsequent weekends. I believe the likely scenario is for Jersey Boys to grow in the high teens or low 20s out of the gate.

Jersey Boys opening weekend prediction: $18.9 million

For my Think Like a Man Too prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/15/think-like-a-man-too-box-office-prediction/