Tag: The Fault in Our Stars

Todd’s Oscar Predictions: Round FOUR (December Edition)

We have arrived at take #4 of my Oscar Predictions and these reflect my first predictions in the month of December. Much has changed since my last pre-Thanksgiving picks. Most importantly, the nominations for the SAG and Golden Globe awards have been released and they obviously show many directions in which the Academy could go. Just as importantly, Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken screened for critics. Many anticipated the picture could be a potential Oscar front runner. However, it didn’t pan out that way with its current 55% Rotten Tomatoes rating. It may struggle now to be nominated at all.

As I’ve done before, let’s breakdown the eight major categories one by one:

Best Adapted Screenplay

Gone Girl, The Imitation Game, and The Theory of Everything appear to be locks for nominations here. I will still include Unbroken, though its inclusion is less clear. The fifth slot could be anything from Still Alice to American Sniper to Into the Woods. Yet (for now) I’ll go with Wild. This latest round replaces Into the Woods with the Reese Witherspoon drama.

Predicted Nominees

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game

The Theory of Everything

Unbroken

Wild

Best Original Screenplay

No changes here in a very strong category. However, the list of movies that could be spoiler nominees includes Mr. Turner, Foxcatcher, A Most Violent Year, and even The LEGO Movie.

Predicted Nominees

Birdman

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Selma

Whiplash

Best Supporting Actress

Just one change here as I’m taking out Carmen Ejogo for Selma and replacing her with Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year. Other potential nominees: Laura Dern in Wild, Carrie Coon in Gone Girl, and Kristen Stewart in Still Alice.

Predicted Nominees

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Emma Stone, Birdman

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Best Supporting Actor

The disappointment of the Unbroken reaction has led me to take out Miyavi for that picture and replace him with Tom Wilkinson as President Lyndon Johnson in Selma. Other potential nominees: Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice and Tim Roth in Selma. Robert Duvall has landed SAG and Globe nods, but I still can’t bring myself to include him yet.

Predicted Nominees

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

Edward Norton, Birdman

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Tom Wilkinson, Selma

Best Actress

This category seems to have four locks: Julianne Moore, Reese Witherspoon, Felicity Jones, and Rosamund Pike. The five spot is truly up for grabs. It could go to Hilary Swank (The Homesman), Jennifer Aniston (Cake), Emily Blunt (Into the Woods), or Shailene Woodley (The Fault in Our Stars). For now – I’m taking Blunt out and predicting the final slot goes to Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night.

Predicted Nominees

Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Best Actor

In any other year – Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner), Jake Gyllenhall (Nightcrawler), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), and Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year) might find themselves in the mix. However, there are five other strong contenders and they’re the same that I predicted last month.

Predicted Nominees

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton, Birdman

David Oyelowo, Selma

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Best Director

I’ve had Angelina Jolie included in my previous three posts, but she’s out for the first time. I’m replacing her with David Fincher for now. Other possibilities include Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), James Marsh (The Theory of Everything), and JC Chandor (A Most Violent Year), among others.

Predicted Nominees

Ana DuVernay, Selma

David Fincher, Gone Girl

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Best Picture

Two changes here as Into the Woods and Interstellar are out. I’m still including Unbroken, but it may be in serious danger. The two newbies have both been predicted in previous posts but not last month: Foxcatcher and Gone Girl. 

Other pictures not predicted that could find a way in: The Grand Budapest Hotel, A Most Violent Year, American Sniper, and Mr. Turner.

Predicted Nominees

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Unbroken

Whiplash

And that’s the latest folks! I’ll likely have a part two December predictions before the dawn of 2015. Stay tuned!

 

Todd’s Oscar Predictions: ROUND THREE (November Edition)

November brings us my third edition of my Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. Since October’s round of predictions, a few important things have happened. First and foremost, Ana DuVernay’s Martin Luther King Civil Rights pic Selma has screened for critics and vaulted itself into a major contender… and not just for nominations. Disney’s Into the Woods screened just last night and it too has entered the fray. The only film left unseen is Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken, but it remains a potential force to be reckoned with.

Let’s go through the categories one by one and I’ll point out what changes have transpired in the last few weeks!

Best Adapted Screenplay

Only one change here as I’ve taken out American Sniper and subbed in Into the Woods. The other four nominees seem like sure things for the most part. If Woods or Sniper don’t get in, Inherent Vice, Still Alice, or Wild are other possibles.

Predicted Nominees

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game

Into the Woods

The Theory of Everything

Unbroken

Best Original Screenplay

I had Interstellar in a month ago, but this seems unlikely after the main complaints of critics was the script. Foxcatcher is out as well as it seems to be losing momentum in the Academy derby. I’ve put it Selma and Whiplash in their place. I’m still keeping in The Grand Budapest Hotel, though many prognosticators have it out of competition. A Most Violent Year and Mr. Turner could get in, too.

Predicted Nominees

Birdman

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Selma

Whiplash

Best Supporting Actress

We have a couple changes here as Meryl Streep (Into the Woods) and Carmen Ejogo (Selma) join the mix, supplanting Laura Dern (Wild) and Kristen Stewart (Still Alice). Other possibles include Carrie Coon (Gone Girl) and Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year).

Predicted Nominees

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Carmen Ejogo, Selma

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Emma Stone, Birdman

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Best Supporting Actor

We’ll make this simple – this is the one race where nothing has changed prediction wise! If any of my predictions falter – keep an eye out for Tom Wilkinson and Tim Roth (both for Selma), Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice), or Robert Duvall (The Judge).

Predicted Nominees

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

Miyavi, Unbroken

Edward Norton, Birdman

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Best Actress

Just one alteration here as I’ve taken out Amy Adams for Big Eyes and substituted Emily Blunt for Into the Woods. Others with surprise nomination shots are Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night), Hilary Swank (The Homesman), and Jennifer Aniston (Cake).

Predicted Nominees

Emily Blunt, Into the Woods

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Best Actor

The most competitive category of all appears to have four shoo-ins now: Benedict Cumberbatch, Michael Keaton, David Oyelowo, and Eddie Redmayne. This is actually the first time I’ve included Oyelowo after Selma screened, so I’ve removed Jack O’Connell in Unbroken. The fifth slot is tough – it could be O’Connell, Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner), Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), or even Jake Gyllenhall (Nightcrawler) or Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel). For now, though, I’m sticking with Steve Carell in Foxcatcher, despite its downgrading among many for possible nominations.

Predicted Nominees

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton, Birdman

David Oyelowo, Selma

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Best Director

Last month, I included high profile auteurs David Fincher (Gone Girl) and Christopher Nolan (Interstellar). They’re out and Ana DuVernay (Selma) and Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game) are in. Oscar could make some history if DuVernay makes it in. She’d be the first African American woman to be recognized in this category. Additionally, my current estimates that include her and Angelina Jolie would mark the first time two women are up for the award.

Predicted Nominees

Ana DuVernay, Selma

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Angelina Jolie, Unbroken

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Best Picture

I’m still sticking with nine predicted nominees yet a third of them have changed. Gone are Gone Girl, Foxcatcher, and American Sniper. They all have decent shots still, along with A Most Violent Year, Mr. Turner, and The Grand Budapest Hotel. Joining the mix are Selma (a no brainer now) and less sure things Into the Woods and Whiplash. I’m still including Interstellar, though that’s an iffy proposition.

Predicted Nominees

Birdman

Boyhood

The Imitation Game

Interstellar

Into the Woods

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Unbroken

Whiplash

We’ll have a fourth round of December predictions soon enough, friends! Until then…

Todd’s Oscar Predictions: ROUND TWO (October Edition)

This evening on the blog, we arrive at round two of my Oscar Predictions for the 2014 race, which will air in early 2015 with Neil Patrick Harris handling hosting duties. In late August, I made my initial round of predictions and two months later, much has changed and much has stayed the same. Unlike my first round, my second go round will include the races of Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Screenplay.

Let’s get to it, shall we? Here’s where I see the Oscar race right now in the eight major categories:

Best Adapted Screenplay

For my first crack at the Adapted Screenplay race, it’s probably safe to assume Gillian Flynn’s adaptation of her own bestseller Gone Girl will make the cut, as well as festival favorites The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything. I’m also safely (at the moment) including Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken, even though no one has seen it yet. The fifth slot includes several contenders: Still Alice, Inherent Vice, Wild, Into the Woods, and American Sniper. No one has viewed Sniper yet, but its recently released trailer inspires hope.

Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

American Sniper

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game

The Theory of Everything

Unbroken

Best Original Screenplay

Richard Linklater’s Boyhood and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Birdman appear to be shoo-ins for inclusion. I’m also thinking Wes Anderson’s work for The Grand Budapest Hotel stands it best chance at a nod here. For the remaining two slots – I’m saying Foxcatcher and Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar, for now. Other contenders include Mr. Turner, Top Five, Whiplash, A Most Violent Year, Selma, and Big Eyes.

Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Interstellar

Best Supporting Actress

This race has changed quite a bit since my first round of predictions. I originally had both Emily Blunt for Into the Woods and Felicity Jones for The Theory of Everything listed here, but it’s since been announced their performances will fall into the Best Actress race. They’re out – along with Carmen Ejogo as Coretta Scott King in Selma. The only two actresses from my initial predictions are Patricia Arquette in Boyhood (who’s a front runner) and Laura Dern in Wild. Added to the mix are Emma Stone in Birdman and Keira Knightley in The Imitation Game. Other possibilities for the fifth slot include Meryl Streep in Into the Woods, Jessica Chastain in Interstellar, Carrie Coon for Gone Girl, Sienna Miller in American Sniper, Julianne Moore in A Map to the Stars, Anna Kendrick in Into the Woods, Katherine Waterson in Inherent Vice, and Jessica Lange in The Gambler. I’ll go with Kristen Stewart as a surprise nominee for the acclaimed Still Alice.

Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Laura Dern, Wild

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Kristen Stewart, Still Alice

Emma Stone, Birdman

Best Supporting Actor

My first predictions didn’t include J.K. Simmons for his lauded work in Whiplash, but he could be considered the favorite at this juncture. Staying in are Edward Norton in Birdman and Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher and it’s tough to imagine them not being recognized. For the other two slots, I’m including Miyavi for his villainous role in Unbroken and Ethan Hawke for Boyhood. Left out from my first round: Domhall Gleeson (Unbroken), Logan Lerman (Fury), and Tim Roth (Selma). Other contenders: John Goodman for The Gambler, Tom Wilkinson for Selma, Albert Brooks for A Most Violent Year, Christoph Waltz for Big Eyes, Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice, Robert Duvall in The Judge, and Johnny Depp for Into the Woods.

Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

Miyavi, Unbroken

Edward Norton, Birdman

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Best Actress

Following my August estimates, the festival circuit anointed Julianne Moore as a likely front runner for playing an Alzheimer’s patient in Still Alice. I’m also sticking with initial predictions Amy Adams (Big Eyes), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), and Reese Witherspoon (Wild). Since the announcement of her inclusion in this race and not Supporting Actress, Felicity Jones joins the fray for The Theory of Everything. Other possibilities: Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year (who made the cut in August), Emily Blunt for Into the Woods, Shailene Woodley in The Fault in Our Stars, and Hilary Swank for The Homesman.

Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST ACTRESS:

Amy Adams, Big Eyes

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Best Actor

Just like last year, what a crowded field we have! The following quartet seem virtual locks for nominations: Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything), Michael Keaton (Birdman), and Steve Carell (Foxcatcher). The fifth slot is the real mystery. I originally had Joaquin Phoenix here for Inherent Vice, but I’m skeptical now. For now, I’ll replace him with Jack O’Connell in Unbroken. Other possibilities include Timothy Spall for Mr. Turner (who could easily find a way in), Bradley Cooper in American Sniper (same), Ralph Fiennes for The Grand Budapest Hotel, Ben Affleck in Gone Girl, Bill Murray for St. Vincent, David Oyelowo in Selma (depends on film’s success and critical reception), Oscar Isaac in A Most Violent Year, Matthew McConaughey for Interstellar (fact that he won last year hurts), Jake Gyllenhall for Nightcrawler (pic is probably too quirky and small), and Channing Tatum for Foxcatcher (Carell likely to steal his thunder).

Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST ACTOR:

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton, Birdman

Jack O’Connell, Unbroken

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Best Director

Only one change here as I’m taking Bennett Miller’s direction for Foxcatcher out and putting David Fincher’s work in Gone Girl in. I think the commercial and critical success of it and Fincher’s reputation as one of Hollywood’s best filmmakers gets him in (at press time). Those who could spoil my predictions: Clint Eastwood (American Sniper), Ana DuVernay (Selma), Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game), Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Mike Leigh (Mr. Turner), James Marsh (The Theory of Everything), JC Chandor (A Most Violent Year), and Rob Marshall (Into the Woods).

Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST DIRECTOR

David Fincher, Gone Girl

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Angelina Jolie, Unbroken

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Christopher Nolan, Interstellar

Best Picture

As you may know, anywhere from 5-10 films can be nominated in the biggest category of them all. Since that system has been in place, nine pictures have been recognized every time. In August’s predictions, I predicted eight. And now – I’m going with nine. The MLK biopic Selma is the one I’ve removed. Don’t get me wrong – it could still easily make the cut, but no one’s seen it yet and it’s a question mark. Gone Girl and American Sniper enter the race in my opinion and this marks their first inclusion. Other films that could potentially make the cut (even though I say no at the moment): Mr. Turner, Whiplash, The Grand Budapest Hotel, A Most Violent Year, and Into the Woods.

Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST PICTURE

American Sniper

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game

Interstellar

The Theory of Everything

Unbroken

The Fault in Our Stars Movie Review

When we are of a certain age such as 16-18 as the main characters in The Fault in Our Stars are, everything seems to be of a bigger consequence than perhaps it is. Your emotions are magnified. We experience feelings that are truly for the first time. Love is one of them. And there are lots of movies where we see teens go through that journey for the first time. Yet few of them get it right. Few of them manage to capture the almost indescribable significance of discovering love at an age when you’re just beginning to understand it. Cameron Crowe’s Say Anything achieved that rare feat. There are several moments in Josh Boone’s picture that do, too. That’s it greatest strength in a story that follows patterns we’ve seen before to be sure. That said, Fault finds ways to make them seem fresh with lots of credit going to the actors.

In The Fault in Our Stars, the consequences of first love are heightened due to the bond that Hazel Grace (Shailene Woodley) and Augustus (Ansel Elgort) share. They are both diagnosed with cancer and meet in a support group that Hazel’s parents make her go to. Unlike most teens who fall for one another and believe their time together will never end, they know their relationship will be different and not timeless. Upon their meeting, Hazel has Augustus read her favorite book which chronicles a little girl’s battle with their disease. Augustus is frustrated when the book ends with no clear cut conclusion and it leads him to seeking out the reclusive writer (Willem Dafoe) in Amsterdam to get some answers. Once overseas, Hazel and Augustus may not achieve the resolution they’re looking for with the alcoholic author. However, the trip brings them closer together and deeper in love – even though the filmmakers (and author apparently) choose a rather odd location for them to share a first kiss.

While I am not familiar with the picture’s source material, I’m well aware that the John Green novel is widely read and beloved by many. There’s no doubt the cancer themes certainly strike a chord with so many for obvious reasons, but I suspect the Fault phenomenon may lie with my first point. So few screenplays and written works get first love right.

Part of the film’s success in that manner is due to Woodley and Elgort. They’re quite good together and Woodley, especially, has proven herself to be one of the most exciting young actresses working today. Between The Descendants, The Spectacular Now and this – she’s put together quite a remarkable resume of performances in short order. This movie would crumble if the chemistry between the two stars didn’t work and luckily it does. As Hazel’s parents, Laura Dern and Sam Trammell are understated and effective and Nat Wolff provides some often needed comic relief as Augustus’s friend who’s been blinded by cancer.

The Fault in Our Stars could’ve easily veered into overt melodrama, but it mostly avoids it. Much of this is thanks to the wonderful casting, but also the writing which realizes Hazel Grace and Augustus as smart and thoughtful teenagers (something many screenwriters know nothing of). Yes it’s a tearjerker, but the actors and writers earn them by rarely pandering to the audience and capturing the young true love emotions of its two stars.

*** (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: June 20-22

Two new pictures enter the marketplace this Friday with the Kevin Hart led sequel Think Like a Man Too and the Clint Eastwood directed adaptation of the Broadway smash Jersey Boys. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/15/think-like-a-man-too-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/15/jersey-boys-box-office-prediction/

Depending on the percentage drops of sequels 22 Jump Street and How To Train Your Dragon 2, there could be a legitimate three-way race for the top spot among those “part two’s” and the second Think Like a Man. My prediction for Man is on the higher end of expectations and I’m estimating Jump Street loses about half its audience and Dragon only loses around one-third of its debut gross.

This should leave Jersey Boys opening in the four spot with Maleficent rounding out the top five.

And with that – my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Think Like a Man Too

Predicted Gross: $38.2 million

2. How To Train Your Dragon 2

Predicted Gross: $32 million (representing a drop of 35%)

3. 22 Jump Street

Predicted Gross: $27.3 million (representing a drop of 52%)

4. Jersey Boys

Predicted Gross: $18.9 million

5. Maleficent

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 44%)

Box Office Results (June 13-15)

Well it’s not often that I miss a prediction by nearly $40 million dollars, but I’m embarrassed to report it happened this weekend. Simply put, How To Train Your Dragon 2 didn’t come anywhere close to what I believed to be its potential. Many insiders had pegged this as a candidate for summer 2014’s biggest grosser and I bought into it. It earned a just OK $49.4 million compared to my $88.7 million prediction. Ouch.

This allowed 22 Jump Street to post a terrific #1 opening with $57 million, just above my $53.1M projection. The goodwill left over from the 2012 original and rock solid reviews clearly contributed to its success.

Maleficent took the #3 spot in its third weekend with $18.5 million, barely outpacing my $17.4M estimate. The Disney hit had taken in $163M so far and looks to surpass $200 million when all is said and done.

Tom Cruise’s Edge of Tomorrow held up better in weekend #2 than I thought it would with $16.5 million for fourth, ahead of my $13.8M estimate. It’s taken in $57 million in ten days and has a shot of getting to $100 million.

This means last weekend’s #1 The Fault in Our Stars dipped further than my estimate with $14.7 million in its sophomore frame. I predicted $17.9 million. The John Green adapted weepie fell a steep 67%, but it’s already made $80 million in ten days and had a meager $12 million budget.

That’s all for now, folks. Until next time!

 

Box Office Predictions: June 13-15

Two very different sequels debut Friday and both are expected to inject a shot of adrenaline to the summer box office. DreamWorks animated How to Train Your  Dragon 2 and the R rated Jonah Hill/Channing Tatum comedy 22 Jump Street are the newbies and you can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/08/how-to-train-your-dragon-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/08/22-jump-street-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I expect both sequels to open north of what their predecessors accomplished and I’m estimating this will be the first (and probably only) summer 2014 weekend that sees two pictures open above $50M.

The Fault in Our Stars is the current champ and it got off to a terrific start. However, it’s likely to suffer a big decline in weekend #2 due to many of its fans rushing to see it out of the gate. Maleficent in its third weekend should lose around half its audience and the same bodes for Tom Cruise’s Edge of Tomorrow.

If Fault drops as far as I’m predicting, it could create a real race for #3 with Maleficent.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. How to Train Your Dragon 2

Predicted Gross: $88.7 million

2. 22 Jump Street

Predicted Gross: $53.1 million

3. The Fault in Our Stars

Predicted Gross: $17.9 million (representing a drop of 62%)

4. Maleficent

Predicted Gross: $17.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Edge of Tomorrow

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)

Box Office Results (June 6-8)

While I was right on point with this past weekend’s holdovers, I didn’t give either of the new entries quite enough credit.

The Fault in Our Stars dominated with a terrific $48 million debut – beyond my $43.1M projection. The book’s fans came out in droves and the pic managed to quadruple its meager budget in its initial weekend. As mentioned above, it’s likely to suffer a precipitous drop in weekend #2, but even if it does – Fault is unquestionably one of the season’s major sleepers.

Maleficent held up decently in its sophomore frame with $34.2 million – right on pace with my $34M estimate. The Disney feature has earned $128M so far and a $200M domestic gross is within reach.

Edge of Tomorrow couldn’t quite capitalize on its rock solid reviews and the Tom Cruise sci-fi actioner opened with a so-so $28.7 million. It did manage to top my $23.7M prediction, but considering its $178M massive budget – this is a letdown.

At fourth in its third weekend was X-Men: Days of Future Past with $15.1 million, on pace with my $14.9M estimate. The flick has made $189 million so far. In fifth was the Seth MacFarlane bomb A Million Ways to Die in the West with $7.3 million in weekend two, on par with my $7.1M projection. West has made only $30 million in ten days and it struggle to reach $50M.

That’s all for now, folks!

 

Oscar Watch: The Fault in Our Stars

It’s still mighty early in the year to be talking about Oscar contenders as probably nearly 100% have yet to be released. I’ve already touched on the somewhat longshot prospects of The Grand Budapest Hotel and the very likely possibility of this fall’s Foxcatcher receiving nods (Steve Carell is a shoo-in). You can read those posts here:

Oscar Watch: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Oscar Watch: Foxcatcher

However, this weekend brings the film adaptation of John Green’s wildly popular novel The Fault in Our Stars. The pic appears to be headed towards a massive opening weekend and it sits at a rock solid 83% on Rotten Tomatoes.

So is there any chance this could be nominated for Best Picture? Truth be told – not much of one. Then again it’s hard to gauge right now because we don’t know how strong this autumn’s offerings will be. If Fault is a mega-grosser and a good portion of the fall hopefuls disappoint, the stars could align.

While I’m not high on the film’s chances at Best Picture, a Best Actress nomination for Shailene Woodley seems more feasible. The actress has already been in the mix of awards discussions for 2011’s The Descendants and 2013’s The Spectacular Now and  she’s yet to be nominated. Woodley had a hit earlier this spring with Divergent and she’s drawn rave reviews for this. I wouldn’t bank on her receiving a Best Actress nod, but it’s certainly possible.

As always, I’ll update my Oscar hopefuls as they come out!

Box Office Predictions: June 6-8

The June box office kicks off Friday with The Fault in Our Stars, the adaptation of John Green’s huge bestselling YA novel and the Tom Cruise sci-fi thriller Edge of Tomorrow. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/01/the-fault-in-our-stars-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/01/edge-of-tomorrow-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I’m predicting big things for Fault and less than stellar results for Tomorrow. Truth be told, my estimates seem a bit higher than some on Fault and lower than others on Tomorrow. We shall see how it plays out and there’s the factor of Maleficent‘s second weekend. If my predictions don’t pan out, we could see a very real race between all three for the #1 spot, even though I’m saying it won’t happen.

The rest of the top five should be rounded out by holdovers X-Men: Days of Future Past and box office dud A Million Ways to Die in the West.

Here’s how I think it’ll play out:

1. The Fault in Our Stars

Predicted Gross: $43.1 million

2. Maleficent

Predicted Gross: $34 million (representing a drop of 51%)

3. Edge of Tomorrow

Predicted Gross: $23.7 million

4. X-Men: Days of Future Past

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. A Million Ways to Die in the West

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 57%)

Box Office Results (May 30-June 1)

Disney got Maleficent off to a rock solid start with Maleficent, which grossed $69.4 million in its debut – just ahead of my $66.2M projection. This marked the highest live-action opening ever for star Angelina Jolie.

In second was X-Men: Days of Future Past, which dropped further than I anticipated in weekend #2 with $32.5 million compared to my $37.1M estimate. While it’s doing well, Future will not reach the level of the highest grosser in the franchise The Last Stand from 2006.

The news was not good for Seth MacFarlane as his A Million Ways to Die in the West tanked with $16.7 million – less than half of my generous $33.6M prediction. Negative reviews likely contributed to the disastrous opening and West‘s entire domestic take should be less than what MacFarlane’s Ted made in its first weekend. Ouch.

Holdovers populated the remainder of top five with Godzilla in fourth at $12 million (below my $14.2M estimate) and Blended in fifth with $8.1 million (below my $9.6M projection).

That’s all for now friends!

The Fault in Our Stars Box Office Prediction

Based on an enormous bestselling novel from John Green, The Fault in Our Stars opens this Friday at the box office and it seems to be gaining momentum for a terrific opening.

Equipped with a minor $12 million budget, Fault stars Shailene Woodley and Ansel Elgort as two teenagers who meet at their cancer support group. The 2012 book has connected in a major way with YA readers in and its following is expected to bring in moviegoers. Fault should succeed in easily tripling its budget with its domestic opening weekend alone. This should continue a stellar 2014 for Woodley, in particular, whose Divergent this spring has earned #148 million stateside. I believe an opening in the $40M+ range is the most likely scenario meaning Fault should debut at the top spot.

The Fault in Our Stars opening weekend prediction: $43.1 million

For my Edge of Tomorrow prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/01/edge-of-tomorrow-box-office-prediction/