After receiving critical kudos and impressive box office numbers for his solo directorial debut Barbarian in 2022, Zach Cregger’s follow-up Weapons is unloaded on August 8th. The horror mystery about a group of kids vanishing into the night stars Josh Brolin and Julia Garner (currently surfing multiplexes in The Fantastic Four: First Steps). Supporting players include Cary Christopher, Alden Ehrenreich, Austin Abrams, Benedict Wong, and Amy Madigan.
Effective trailers, appreciation for Barbarian, and early reviews (100% on RT currently) have caused genre fans to circle Weapons on their viewing calendar. While Cregger’s first scary movie started off with $10 million, his second is expected to double that figure and then some. Some estimates even have this getting to $30M+. I’ll be a bit more conservative and go high 20s.
While The Fantastic Four: First Steps looks to ride a wave of solid buzz to a second weekend atop the charts, three new releases will jockey for position. We have animated sequel The Bad Guys 2, comedy franchise reboot The Naked Gun, and the Dave Franco/Alison Brie body horror experience Together premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
Unless The Bad Guys 2 significantly underperforms or The Naked Gun really fires on all cylinders, it should manage a runner-up debut. I’m projecting high 20s which would improve on its 2022 predecessor’s mid-twenties rollout.
The Naked Gun is the biggest question mark of the weekend. While nostalgia could propel it to better than anticipated numbers, series unfamiliarity among younger patrons could hinder it. The range is wide as I see the floor in the teens with breakout potential putting it in second place. My lower 20s compromise means a commendable third place.
Together is at 99% on Rotten Tomatoes, but horror fans have had plenty to feast on recently. My higher single digits estimate (and low double digits when factoring in its Wednesday bow) might put it in a face-off for fifth with the fifth weekend of Jurassic World Rebirth.
As mentioned, The Fantastic Four: First Steps should have no trouble staying in 1st. A mid to high 50s decline would be a bit more than the 53% experienced by Superman. Speaking of Supes, a fourth weekend decline close to 50% should mean fourth place.
Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:
1. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $50.6 million
2. The Bad Guys 2
Predicted Gross: $28.1 million
3. The Naked Gun
Predicted Gross: $22.3 million
4. Superman
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million
5. Jurassic World Rebirth
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
5. Together
Predicted Gross: $7 million (Friday to Sunday); $10.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Box Office Results (July 25-27)
MCU’s 37th feature yielded its 37th #1 in a row as The Fantastic Four: First Steps made $117.6 million. It came close to Superman‘s start, falling short by just over $7 million. The critically appreciated reboot also couldn’t match my $122.4 million prediction. This is still a nice start while not getting to the rosiest of projections.
Superman dropped to second with $24.8 million, flying under my $28 million call. DC’s reboot (that word is popular with this summer’s crop) is nearing $300 million with $289 million in its coffers after three weeks.
Jurassic World Rebirth did cross that threshold with $13.2 million more in weekend #4, in line with my $13.6 million projection. The tally is $301 million.
Other holdovers were in close range with my guesstimates. F1 was fourth with $6.3 million (I said $6.7 million) for five-week earnings of $165 million.
Smurfs rounded out the top five with $5.4 million (I went with $5.5 million). The animated, yes, reboot has brought in a sleepy $22 million in two weeks.
I Know What You Did Last Summer was sixth with $5.2 million (I said $5.3 million) for $23 million in its ten days of release.
Over the past couple of weeks, the biggest developments in the Oscar estimating game has come courtesy of lineup announcements for the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. Some of these updates are cosmetic – Ann Lee is now The Testament of Ann Lee, The Ballad of a Small Player has dropped the The. Some titles including Anemone, Ella McKay, Is This Thing On?, and Klara and the Sun might be skipping the fest circuit altogether. Perhaps some of them will move to 2026. It appears Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is foregoing the circuit prior to its September bow, but PTA is known for skipping them. Same goes for Marty Supreme though that’s not too surprising considering the Christmas release. It’s worth noting any of the aforementioned titles could pop up in London or New York or Telluride. Some of these festival premieres are receiving release dates while trailers continue to roll out including Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt.
There are changes to discuss:
In BP, it is Avatar: Fire and Ash back in along with Hikari’s Rental Family for the first time. They take out Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident and Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet.
In Director, two changes with Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) and Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) in my top five with Luca Guadagnino (After the Hunt) and Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) dropping.
In Supporting Actress, Ayo Edebiri’s work in After the Hunt elevates to #1 over Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), sliding to second. Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) enters the projected quintet with Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) now on the outside looking in.
A similar story in Supporting Actor with Akira Emoto (Rental Family) now predicted and Jeremy Strong from Springsteen now outside the high five.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)
4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Rental Family (PR: 15) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-1)
15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 20) (+5)
16. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (-2)
17. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (-1)
18. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (+1)
19. F1 (PR: 23) (+4)
20. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-3)
21. The Secret Agent (PR: 18) (-3)
22. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (+3)
23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (E)
25. Die, My Love (PR: 21) (-4)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)
15. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King
Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Emma Mackey, Ella McKay (PR: 10) (-1)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (-2)
13. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 12) (+6)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)
8. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (E)
12. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Ella McCay (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (-2)
14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (-1)
14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nouvelle Vague
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Train Dreams (PR: 13) (+8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)
7. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)
12. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)
13. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Die, My Love (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Late Fame (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Highest 2 Lowest
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)
5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6, Sirât (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-1)
10. All That’s Left of You (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. Arco (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elio (PR: 3) (E)
4. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Scarlet (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Animal Farm (PR: 9) (E)
10. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (E)
5. Deaf President Now! (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)
8. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Timestamp (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Alabama Solution
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (E)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-2)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Snow White (PR: 9) (E)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-4)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Bugonia (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)
5. F1 (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-5)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. 28 Years Later (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Christy (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Marty Supreme
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)
9. F1 (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)
4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 8) (+1)
8. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 4) (-4)
9. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Mother Mary
“Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
The Phoenician Scheme
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Warfare (PR: 6) (E)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Superman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. F1 (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-3)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (E)
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
Sinners
10 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Bugonia, Frankenstein
6 Nominations
After the Hunt
5 Nominations
Marty Supreme, Rental Family
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Jay Kelly
3 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2 Nominations
F1, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Kpop Demon Hunters, The Testament of Ann Lee, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Dead President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Train Dreams, Tron: Ares, Zootopia 2
The Fantastic Four: First Steps stomps into multiplexes this Friday as the 37th MCU pic’s review embargo lifted today. Directed by Matt Shakman, the fourth Four feature in the 21st century (and second reboot) is easily generating the strongest reviews of the quartet. Vanessa Kirby, Pedro Pascal, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, and Joseph Quinn are the title heroes with Julia Garner, Natasha Lyonne, Paul Walter Hauser, and Ralph Ineson providing support.
The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 86% with a 65 Metacritic. That’s slightly behind its Marvel predecessor Thunderbolts* (88% RT/68 Meta). Yet of the three MCU adventures of 2025 (Captain America: Brave New World being the other), this likely stands the best shot at Oscar attention. That’s in the Visual Effects race which are being widely praised. As we’ve discussed on the blog multiples times, MCU flicks get nominated in VE and don’t win. They are 0 for 14 beginning with 2008’s Iron Man. I don’t expect Steps to be their inaugural victor, especially with Avatar: Fire and Ash on the way.
Another aspect being singled out is Michael Giacchino’s score. Black Panther is the only MCU title that’s been nominated for Original Score (it also won). Giacchino is a two-time nominee for Ratatouille and Up for which he took gold). Fantastic might be a long shot in the musical composition competition though I wouldn’t completely discount it. Same goes for its 1960s production design. The likeliest scenario is a sole VE nod. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Superheroes will continue to rule the summer box office charts with Marvel’s The Fantastic Four: First Steps taking the top spot from DC’s Superman. The MCU reboot is the sole wide release newcomer this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Estimates are a bit all over the map for Steps. The general consensus is that it will top $100 million. Some projections have it eclipsing the $125 million that Superman accomplished just two frames ago. I have it coming in a tad lower, but think it has a better shot at over-indexing than under.
The comic book competition could mean another low 50s decline for the Man of Steel in its third outing with Jurassic World Rebirth sliding from second to third.
Slots 4-6 could be interesting as I Know What You Did Last Summer should suffer a heftier plummet than Smurfs or F1.
Here’s how I see 1-6 shaking out:
1. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $122.4 million
2. Superman
Predicted Gross: $28 million
3. Jurassic World Rebirth
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million
4. F1
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
5. Smurfs
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
6. I Know What You Did Last Summer
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
Box Office Results (July 18-20)
Superman from DC Studios continued to fly high at #1 for the second week in a row with $58.4 million, slightly exceeding my $56.2 million call. James Gunn’s franchise restart has amassed $236 million after ten days.
Jurassic World Rebirth was second with $23.7 million, ahead of my $19.1 million call. The dino pic is up to $276 million following three weeks of play.
While I Know What You Did Last Summer was the biggest grossing newbie, the long gestating horror sequel came in the lower end of its range with $12.7 million in third. That’s under my $17.7 million forecast as viewers weren’t hooked by the return of the late 90s series.
Same goes for Smurfs which flopped in fourth with $11 million compared to my $12.4 million guesstimate. The animated tale with voice work from Rihanna couldn’t find its intended family audience.
F1 rounded out the top five by easing only 24% with $9.8 million, zooming past my $7.5 million take. The four-week total is $153 million.
Finally, Ari Aster’s COVID Western Eddington with Joaquin Phoenix and the ubiquitous Pedro Pascal was seventh with a weak $4.2 million (though it did manage to outdo my $3.4 million prediction).
The Fantastic Four: First Steps looks to set the box office ablaze when it opens July 25th. It is the 37th feature in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and fourth overall picture headlined by the superhero family that made their first comic book appearance nearly 65 years ago. Matt Shakman directs with Pedro Pascal, Vanessa Kirby, Joseph Quinn, and Ebon Moss-Bachrach as the title characters. Costars include Julia Garner, Natasha Lyonne, Paul Walter Hauser, and Ralph Ineson.
The first FF flick since Disney’s acquisition of Fox, it arrives a decade after the failure of the previous reboot starring Miles Teller and Michael B. Jordan. This is not expected to flop with the MCU brand behind it and solid buzz building. All it needs to be the best Fantastic opening is topping 2007’s Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer‘s $58 million. It should double that figure with room to spare.
The benchmark could be Superman‘s $125 million opening from last weekend. When this rolls around, Supes will be in its third weekend and fans could be ready for the next tentpole. Early tracking has this foursome right around the Man of Steel’s first frame. I’ll buy the hype, but say it falls a tad short.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps opening weekend prediction: $122.4 million
While there’s not a whole lot of movement with my Oscar predictions in the past ten days, there are notable changes in Actress and Supporting Actress.
In Actress, Amanda Seyfried’s work in Ann Lee surpasses Jennifer Lawrence from Die, My Love. A switch-up in Supporting Actress now has Sentimental Value generating 10 nominations with Inga Ibsfotter Lilleass in and Angelina LookingGlass (The Rivals of Amziah King) out.
Yorgos Lanthimos’s Bugonia is bumped to the top spot in Adapted Screenplay over Hamnet and you can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 12) (E)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+1)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Hamnet (PR: 7) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (E)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (E)
15. Rental Family (PR: 20) (+5)
16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 18) (+2)
17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 16) (-1)
18. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (-3)
19. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (E)
20. Ann Lee (PR: 22) (+2)
21. Die, My Love (PR: 21) (E)
22. The Life of Chuck (PR: 23) (+1)
23. F1 (PR: 17) (-6)
24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (E)
25. The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)
11. Sydney Sweeney, Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)
14. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Lucy Liu, Rosemead
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (E)
12. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)
13. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rental Family (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Ann Lee (PR: 10) (E)
11. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Ella McCay (PR: 12) (E)
13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 14) (E)
15. Is This Thing On? (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bugonia (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Hamnet (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (E)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+2)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)
8. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Die, My Love (PR: 11) (E)
12. Late Fame (PR: 12) (E)
13. Train Dreams (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 13) (-1)
15. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Hedda
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirât (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sound of Falling (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (E)
10. All That’s Left of You (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Love That Remains
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. Arco (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elio (PR: 3) (E)
4. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (+3)
5. In Your Dreams (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Scarlet (PR: 4) (-2)
7. KPOP Demon Hunters (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Animal Farm (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Seeds (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Deaf President Now! (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Alabama Solution (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Timestamp (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Six Billion Dollar Man
The Librarians
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-4)
7. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
5. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (+1)
9. F1 (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Sentimental Value
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Snow White (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (+1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. F1 (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 28 Years Later (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+2)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bugonia (PR: 2) (-2)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
9. F1 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Marty Supreme (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)
4. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 5) (+1)
5. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (2nd song) (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Golden” from KPOP Demon Hunters (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Relentless” from Diane Warren Relentless (PR: 7) (-1)
9. TBD from Mother Mary (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Marty Supreme
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Warfare (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Superman (PR: 10) (+1)
10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (+2)
8. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 8) (E)
9. F1 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mickey 17 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sinners
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:
14 Nomnations
Sinners
10 Nominations
Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good
8 Nominations
After the Hunt, Frankenstein
7 Nominations
Marty Supreme
6 Nominations
Bugonia
5 Nominations
Hamnet
4 Nominations
Jay Kelly, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident
2 Nominatons
Kiss of the Spider Woman, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Ann Lee, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, F1, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, In Your Dreams, A Magnificent Life, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, The Rivals of Amziah King, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine. Superman
We are officially past the midway point of 2025 and that’s cause to expand my Oscar predictions to all feature length categories for the 98th Academy Awards!
I would agree with most prognosticators that there’s only one already released film that is guaranteed a slot among the BP nominees – Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. I would also say Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, which screened at Cannes and took the Grand Prix (second place), has punched its ticket. As for the Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident, I have it clinging to a BP nod.
Obviously many of the BP hopefuls will elevate or diminish their statuses when festival season kicks off in approximately two months via Toronto, Telluride, and Venice. There is one significant change in my BP selections. For several weeks, I’ve had Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another and Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos on the outside looking in. These are two of the higher profile features awaiting their unveiling. I doubt both miss the cut and I went back and forth on which one to include. I’ve gone with Bugonia and that puts Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The Bugonia bump also puts Jesse Plemons in my Best Actor quintet with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) dropping.
Today’s post gives my first ever preview of the Academy’s new race: Best Casting. As with some other categories, I have Sinners currently leading the way. In fact, my projections have the vampire saga racking up 14 nods. That would tie it with All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land for the most mentions of any picture in Oscar history.
As in past years, I’m keeping my BP mentions at 25 possibilities with directing, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions at 15 hopefuls. For all others, I’m giving you 10 contenders. These numbers will dwindle as the categories take shape down the line.
Here’s my first look at all 21 feature length races!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bugonia (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)
10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me fromNowhere (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (+1)
16. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+2)
17. F1 (PR: 24) (+7)
18. A House of Dynamite (PR: 21) (+3)
19. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (E)
20. Rental Family (PR: 20) (E)
21. Die, My Love (PR: 17) (-4)
22. Ann Lee (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (-9)
24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 22) (+2)
25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Smashing Machine
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash
Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Sydney Sweeney, Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)
13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)
9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)
10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)
12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)
13. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
America Ferrera, The Lost Bus
Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Akira Emoto, Rental Family
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value
2. After the Hunt
3. Jay Kelly
4. Sinners
5. Marty Supreme
Other Possibilities:
6. It Was Just an Accident
7. Sorry, Baby
8. The Rivals of Amziah King
9. The Secret Agent
10. Ann Lee
11. Rental Family
12. Ella McCay
13. Is This Thing On?
14. Nouvelle Vague
15. A House of Dynamite
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hamnet
2. Bugonia
3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
4. One Battle After Another
5. No Other Choice
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein
7. Wicked: For Good
8. The Life of Chuck
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10. Train Dreams
11. Die, My Love
12. Late Fame
13. Highest 2 Lowest
14. Hedda
15. The Smashing Machine
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value
2. It Was Just an Accident
3. The Secret Agent
4. No Other Choice
5. The President’s Cake
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirát
7. Sound of Falling
8. Left-Handed Girl
9. Nouvelle Vague
10. The Love That Remains
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zootopia 2
2. Arco
3. Elio
4. Scarlet
5. In Your Dreams
Other Possibilities:
6. Animal Farm
7. A Magnificent Life
8. Little Amélie or The Character of Rain
9. KPop Demon Hunters
10. Ne Zha 2
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Seeds
3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
4. Cutting Through Rocks
5. Deaf President Now!
Other Possibilities:
6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics
8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5
9. The Six Billion Dollar Man
10. The Librarians
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners
2. After the Hunt
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Sentimental Value
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly
7. Marty Supreme
8. The Rivals of Amziah King
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners
2. Frankenstein
3. Bugonia
4. Marty Supreme
5. The Rivals of Amziah King
Other Possibilities:
6. F1
7. Sentimental Value
8. Nouvelle Vague
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash
10. Wicked: For Good
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Kiss of the Spider Woman
5. Hamnet
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Lee
7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
8. Mother Mary
9. Snow White
10. One Battle After Another
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sentimental Value
4. Bugonia
5. F1
Other Possibilities:
6. After the Hunt
7. Wicked: For Good
8. One Battle After Another
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10. The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Sinners
4. The Smashing Machine
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman
Other Possibilities:
6. 28 Years Later
7. Bugonia
8. Untitled Christy Martin Biopic
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10. Wolf Man
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners
2. Bugonia
3. After the Hunt
4. Frankenstein
5. Wicked: For Good
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another
7. F1
8. Sentimental Value
9. The Rivals of Amziah King
10. Marty Supreme
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless
4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
5. TBD from Zootopia 2
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song)
7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless
8. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White
9. “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie
10. TBD from Mother Mary
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia
7. One Battle After Another
8. Marty Supreme
9. The Phoenician Scheme
10. Ann Lee
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. F1
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Warfare
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
8. Kiss of the Spider Woman
9. Frankenstein
10. Superman
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Superman
4. Frankenstein
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
7. F1
8. How to Train Your Dragon
9. Tron: Ares
10. Sinners
Here’s my initial take on how many nominations the various pictures will receive:
14 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Sentimental Value
8 Nominations
After the Hunt
7 Nominations
Frankenstein, Marty Supreme
6 Nominatons
Bugonia
4 Nominations
Hamnet, Jay Kelly
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2 Nominatons
F1, No Other Choice, The Rivals of Amziah King, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Deaf President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Die, My Love, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, In Your Dreams, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Warfare
We are 37 films deep into the Marvel Cinematic Universe with The Fantastic Four: First Steps as the latest entry. This is my space to give you my personal listing of the MCU sagas that began in 2008 with Iron Man.
This list will be updated as new comic book based adventures come our way.
37. The Marvels (2023)
36. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2023)
35. Thor: Love and Thunder (2022)
34. Captain America: Brave New World (2025)
33. Eternals (2022)
32. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022)
31. Iron Man 2 (2010)
30. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (2022)
29. Thor: The Dark World (2013)
28. Ant-Man (2015)
27. Thor (2011)
26. Captain Marvel (2019)
25. The Incredible Hulk (2008)
24. Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018)
23. Black Widow (2021)
22. Captain America: First Avenger (2011)
21. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)
20. Spider-Man: Far from Home (2019)
19. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (2021)
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 