Tag: The Equalizer 3

September 29-October 1 Box Office Predictions

After the worst box office weekend of 2023, Hollywood hopes to rebound with a quartet of new releases. We have sci-fi action pic The Creator from Gareth Edwards, the return of Jigsaw in Saw X, animated canine sequel PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie, and the wide expansion of the GameStop stock dramedy Dumb Money. My detailed prediction posts on all of them can be accessed here:

The Creator Box Office Prediction
Saw X Box Office Prediction
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie Box Office Prediction
Dumb Money Box Office Prediction

The newcomers should manage to populate the 1-4 slots. The Creator seems poised for #1 though I’m projecting it’ll fall under $20 million for a so-so high teens start.

As for the runner-up position, it could be either of the sequels. The Saw franchise seems to have run out of steam in recent years. My low double digits estimate means a third place start as I see PAW getting into the low teens.

Dumb Money has done fair business in limited release and the expansion might mean mid single digits for fourth position. The lone holdover in the top five should be unlikely three-week champ The Nun II.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. The Creator

Predicted Gross: $17.9 million

2. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million

3. Saw X

Predicted Gross: $15.7 million

4. Dumb Money

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

5. The Nun II

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

Box Office Results (September 22-24)

Neither Hercule Poirot last weekend nor Jason Statham and Sylvester Stallone could dethrone The Nun II from a third weekend atop the charts. The horror sequel edged Expend4bles with $8.5 million, a little above my $7.5 million take. The three-week total is $69 million.

Expend4bles was a huge disappointment in second with only $8 million compared to my $12.8 million prediction. The nine year break between sequels probably didn’t help, but I would’ve thought it could at least hit $10 million.

A Haunting in Venice had a scary 56% drop for third in its sophomore frame with $6.3 million. I was a bit more generous at $7.2 million. The ten-day tally is a weak $25 million.

The Equalizer 3 was fourth with $4.9 million, on target with my $4.7 million forecast for $81 million overall.

Barbie rounded out the top five with $3.2 million (I said $3.1 million) for a 2023 best $630 million in ten weeks.

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 was sixth with $3 million. I went with $2.6 million and the romantic comedy threequel has grossed $23 million after three weeks.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

September 22-24 Box Office Predictions

Jason Statham and Sylvester Stallone look to top the charts as Expend4bles, the fourth entry in the action franchise, is the only new wide release this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Expend4bles Box Office Prediction

I have it just under the teens and that’s a far cry from the mid 30s/high 20s premieres that parts 1 and 2 achieved. It’s also below the $15.8 million that The Expendables 3 made in 2014. That said, given the weak box office frame happening, it should be enough for a #1 debut.

Just as the competition for #1 was a photo finish this past weekend (more on that below), The Nun II and A Haunting in Venice should duke it out for the runner-up spot.

Nos. 4 and 5 should go to holdover threequels The Equalizer 3 and My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3. However, Barbie might manage to stay fifth depending on the Greek drop and the fact that it’s playing on IMAX screens this weekend.

Here’s how I think it’ll shake out from 1-6:

1. Expend4bles

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

2. The Nun II

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

3. A Haunting in Venice

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million

4. The Equalizer 3

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

6. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

Box Office Results (September 15-17)

In a minor upset, The Nun II managed to remain #1 for a second weekend. That upends the conventional wisdom that A Haunting in Venice would claim the top slot. With a better than expected 55% fall (decent for the horror genre), The Nun II made $14.5 million compared to my $10.9 million projection. The scary sequel has made $56 million in two weeks.

A Haunting in Venice, the third Kenneth Branagh entry in his Hercule Poirot series, was a close second with $14.2 million. That’s right on track with my $14.6 million take. Considering last year’s Death on the Nile struggled as well, I wouldn’t anticipate seeing the mustachioed detective for a fourth mystery.

The Equalizer 3 was third with $7.2 million, in line with my $7 million call. Denzel Washington’s alleged capper to his franchise has made $73 million in three weeks.

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 saw a sophomore frame decline above 50% with $4.7 million (I was more generous at $5.9 million). Total is just $18 million.

Barbie rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I said $3.6 million) to bring its nine-week haul to $625 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

September 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Sequel heavy September chugs along this weekend as Kenneth Branagh’s A Haunting in Venice continues his Hercule Poirot series and seeks a #1 start. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

A Haunting in Venice Box Office Prediction

The follow-up to 2017’s Murder on the Orient Express and last year’s Death on the Nile is actually receiving some of the best reviews of the trio. I suspect it may manage to top what Nile did while only reaching about half of what Express grossed out of the gate.

After a solid if unspectacular start, The Nun II may see a high 60s plummet that’s fairly normal for its genre. That would mean a second place showing barely in the double digits.

Holdover threequels The Equalizer 3 and My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 will likely populate the 3-4 slots with drops in the low to mid 40s while Barbie should round out the top five. I figure the year’s biggest hit will remain in the high five as I look for Jawan to have a hefty decline after its impressive premiere (more on that below).

Here’s how I envision that top five:

1. A Haunting in Venice

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

2. The Nun II

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

3. The Equalizer 3

Predicted Gross: $7 million

4. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

5. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

Box Office Results (September 8-10)

The Nun II didn’t come anywhere near the franchise Conjuring Universe peak $53 million that its predecessor made in 2018. It still scared up a respectable $32.6 million, under my $38.7 million prognosis.

The Equalizer 3 tumbled in the mid 60s during its sophomore frame with $12 million, below my $15.4 million call. The two-week total is $61 million as it hopes to hit $100 million like parts 1 and 2. It’s a legit question mark as to whether it gets there.

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 debuted in line with my expectations with a meh $10 million (I said $10.3 million). That is slightly better than other estimates though it’s well under the $16 million of part 2 from 2016.

Acclaimed Hindi action flick Jawan admittedly was not on my radar screen like it should’ve been. The $6.1 million haul put it in fourth place with the second strongest per theater average after The Nun II.

Barbie rounded out the top five with $5.7 million (I went with $6.4 million) as its eight week total rose to a massive $620 million.

I incorrectly had Blue Beetle in the top five, but it was sixth with $3.8 million. I was right on pace with $3.9 million. The DCU disappointment made $63 million in four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

September 8-10 Box Office Predictions

A sequel filled September continues with The Nun II looking to conjure up big money while My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 hopes to post comparable grosses to its 2016 predecessor. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

The Nun II Box Office Prediction
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 Box Office Prediction

In 2018, The Nun surprisingly achieved the largest premiere in the Conjuring Universe (a record that still stands) at $53 million. While I don’t expect the follow-up to reach that level, a solid high 30s start is my call.

As for Greek Wedding, the first sequel didn’t come close to matching what the smash 2002 original accomplished. I see the numbers continuing to dwindle with the third iteration and I have it barely topping $10 million. That should put #3 in third.

Current champ The Equalizer 3 should fall to second after a robust Labor Day weekend haul (more on that below). A mid 50s decline should put it in the low to mid teens.

Barbie looks to land in the four spot while Oppenheimer and Blue Beetle could duke it out for fifth. I’ve got them both just under $4 million.

Here’s how I envision the top six:

1. The Nun II

Predicted Gross: $38.7 million

2. The Equalizer 3

Predicted Gross: $15.4 million

3. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

4. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

5. Blue Beetle

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

6. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

Box Office Results (September 1-4)

Denzel Washington is quite consistent in his sole franchise as audiences turned up for The Equalizer 3. Reportedly the final entry in the violent series, it earned the second best Labor Day weekend of all time at $42.8 million. That edges my call of $39.2 million. The three-day gross of $34.6 million is right on target with its two predecessors.

Barbie was second with $13.4 million over the long frame. I was generous (a theme for the weekend) at $16.2 million. The highest grossing movie of 2023 sits at $612 million domestically.

Blue Beetle was third with $9.4 million (I said $9.5 million!) as the DCU disappointment has made $58 million after three weeks.

Gran Turismo, despite an A Cinemascore, plummeted from 1st to 4th in its sophomore outing. The racing flick stalled at $8.7 million, well under my $12.1 million take for just $30 million thus far.

Oppenheimer rounded out the top five at $7.6 million (I went with $9.1 million) for a mega $310 million tally.

Finally, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem crossed the nine digit mark. The animated reboot made $6.2 million in sixth (I said more with $8.4 million) for $107 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

September 1-4 Box Office Predictions

Denzel Washington hopes for a fruitful holiday weekend at the box office with The Equalizer 3. It aims to have the second best Labor Day debut of all time as the only newcomer of the frame. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The Equalizer 3 Box Office Prediction

The third feature in the action trilogy should have little trouble achieving that 2nd best mark. Labor Day weekend is normally one where studios avoid breaking out the big guns. In 2021, Marvel ignored that tradition with Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings and its $94 million beginning. The runner-up opening belongs to 2007’s Halloween remake at $30 million and I’ve got Equalizer a shade under $40 million.

With an extra day of grosses, the weekend should see meager declines and even some increases for holdovers. I believe this should allow Barbie to stay put in second for the third week in a row while current champ Gran Turismo drops to third. The four to six slots should be a combination of Blue Beetle, Oppenheimer, and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. I have that trio separated by just over a million so their positions could fluctuate.

Here’s how I envision that top six and keep in mind these estimates are for the four-day:

1. The Equalizer 3

Predicted Gross: $39.2 million

2. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

3. Gran Turismo

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

4. Blue Beetle

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

5. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

Box Office Results (August 25-27)

National Cinema Day on Sunday helped some pics post small declines, but it wasn’t enough to prevent the Playstation based Gran Turismo from a so-so start. The racing drama took in $17.4 million, a tad below my $19.3 million projection. That’s good enough for first, but hardly provides Sony with bragging rights. With an A Cinemascore, it’ll hope for legs over Labor Day and could be successful as I only have it falling around 15%.

Barbie was second with $15.1 million compared to my $16.5 million take. The year’s largest hit is up to $592 million in six weeks.

Blue Beetle went from 1st to 3rd with $12.1 million, a shade under my $13.2 million prediction. The DCU flop stands at only $45 million after ten days.

Oppenheimer was fourth with $8.2 million (I said $8.1 million) as the epic has amassed $299 million thus far.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem rounded out the top five with $7.2 million, in range with my $6.8 million estimate. The four-week total is $99 million.

Finally, two newcomers failed to find a crowd. Liam Neeson’s Retribution opened in line with the star’s recent action flicks with $3.5 million for eighth position. That is better than my call of $2.4 million. The nine slot went to sports drama The Hill with $2.3 million as it couldn’t climb to my $3.3 million guesstimate.

That does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation wherever you prefer to stream. Until next time…

The Equalizer 3 Box Office Prediction

On September 1st, Denzel Washington is back in theaters showcasing his particular set of violent skills in The Equalizer 3. Antoine Fuqua, who collaborated with the lead on the first two pics as well as Training Day and The Magnificent Seven, directs. Costars include Dakota Fanning (reuniting with Washington nearly 20 years after Man on Fire), Eugenio Mastrandrea, David Denman, Sonia Ammar, and Remo Girone.

The Italian set action threequel is billed as the finale of the trilogy that began in 2014. Originally based on the stylish 1980s TV show with Edward Woodard, part one generated $34 million in its debut and $101 million overall domestically. The 2018 follow-up posted very similar earnings with a $35 million start and $102 million total.

I suspect that consistency will continue the third time. It has the advantage of premiering over the four-day Labor Day frame with no newcomers out and most holdovers fading. From Friday to Monday, a gross topping $40 million is certainly achievable. I’ll put it a bit under.

The Equalizer 3 opening weekend prediction: $39.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate)