Tag: The Deliverance

97th Academy Awards Predictions: August 20th Edition

In eights days, the Venice Film Festival will get underway followed the next day by Telluride and followed by Toronto the following week. The trio of events, as they always do, kick off a flurry of awards activity and dozens of Oscar Prediction posts on this blog. The fests in Italy, Colorado, and Canada will make the picture for the 97th Academy Awards considerably clearer.

As you peruse the titles listed below, here are just some which will debut at one or more of the festivals: Conclave, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Saturday Night, The End, Maria, Nightbitch, Babygirl, The Room Next Door, I’m Still Here, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, The Brutalist, The Fire Inside, Hard Truths, We Live in Time, The Wild Robot, Piece by Piece, and The Last Showgirl.

The plan is for my next update to arrive on Labor Day. By that time, quite a few of these titles will already have eyeballs on them and reviews will be written. Consider this the penultimate forecast before it gets really real.

This update comes with a pair of changes in the supporting fields. In Supporting Actress, Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) enters my quintet with Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) dropping out. Speaking of Conclave, John Lithgow is now in my Supporting Actor five over his costar Stanley Tucci.

You can peruse all the movement below as festival season is nearly upon us!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anora (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (E)

12. Saturday Night (PR: 18) (+6)

13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 12) (-3)

16. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-2)

17. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (-1)

18. Maria (PR: 17) (-1)

19. The End (PR: 20) (+1)

20. A Real Pain (PR: 19) (-1)

21. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

22. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 24) (+2)

23. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

24. A Different Man (PR: 21) (-3)

25. Hard Truths (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Fire Inside

Here

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)

9. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)

10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)

11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Ridley Scott, Gladiator II

Marielle Heller, Nightbitch

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (E)

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)

9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (E)

12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Zendaya, Challengers

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Timothèe Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tom Hanks, Here

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Selena Gomez, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (E)

12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

15. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Glenn Close, The Deliverance

Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (E)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+7)

4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 14) (E)

15. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Raci, Sing Sing

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saturday Night (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The End (PR: 9) (+1)

9. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Dídi (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Maria (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Challengers (PR: 12) (E)

13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Substance (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

A Different Man

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. Queer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12 (E)

13. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 13) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)

3. Grand Tour (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Caught by the Tides (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (E)

8. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)

9. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Uprising (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Kneecap

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Transformers One (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sugarcane (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Land (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 7) (E)

8. Union (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR 4) (E)

5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Anora (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A Complete Unknown

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Blitz (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Challengers (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maria (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Nightbitch

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Queer (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Challengers (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

The Piano Lesson

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from Wicked (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (-1)

7. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Why Am I Here” from Shirley (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Conclave (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Queer (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Maria

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

9. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Emilia Pérez

Twisters

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)

8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wicked (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Mufasa: The Lion King

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Blitz

8 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

6 Nominations

Gladiator II, Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Conclave, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Wicked

2 Nominations

A Different Man, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Black Box Diaries, Challengers, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, The Outrun, The Room Next Door, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

Oscar Predictions: The Deliverance

Lee Daniels is in horror mode for the first time with The Deliverance, out in limited theatrical release this weekend before an August 30th Netflix streaming bow. The supernatural tale is inspired by real events with a cast led by Andra Day and Glenn Close. Costars include Rob Morgan, Caleb McLaughlin, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Tasha Smith, Omar Epps, and Mo’Nique.

Fifteen years ago, Daniels had an awards breakout when Precious landed six Oscar nods including a Supporting Actress victory for Mo’Nique. 2021’s The United States vs. Billie Holiday saw Day contending for lead Actress. Yet any chatter among this acting troupe in The Deliverance has not centered on them. Same goes for Ellis-Taylor, recently up in supporting for King Richard. Her role here is said to be smaller and she is far likelier to be in the mix with the upcoming Nickel Boys.

This brings us to Glenn Close. The eight-time Academy nominee has infamously come up short eight times. Some early write-ups have said her performance is impressive. However, the 47% Rotten Tomatoes score and its genre should rule out a ninth at bat. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

97th Academy Awards Predictions: August 5th Edition

Is Saturday Night alright for Oscar? Jason Reitman’s latest picture chronicles the premiere of SNL back in 1975. The surprise announcement this week is that it has wrapped production and will hit theaters on October 11th. That’s exactly 49 years after the iconic NBC sketch show debuted.

One week after the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown joined the 2024 calendar, Saturday will try to get into the Academy mix. The most likely categories for the Sony release are significant ones – Picture, Director, and especially Original Screenplay. The cast also presents some possibilities like Gabriel LaBelle (from The Fabelmans) as Lorne Michaels. I’m assuming he’d be campaigned for in lead Actor though nothing is confirmed. In Supporting Actress, let’s see if Rachel Sennott as writer Rosie Shuster and Ella Hunt as legendary cast member Gilda Radner get in the convo.

I am not elevating Saturday Night into my predictions for any race yet, but you’ll see it in the possibilities section.

The Piano Lesson gets a boost this week as it is back in BP over The Seed of the Sacred Fig. Piano‘s Samuel L. Jackson also returns to #1 in Supporting Actor with his costar Danielle Deadwyler back in the quintet for Supporting Actress. Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters) drops.

Mohammad Rasolouf in Director also falls out for Seed in favor of Anora‘s Sean Baker. Pedro Almodóvar’s The Room Next Door shifts from Original to Adapted Screenplay and makes my cut with Dune: Part Two on the outside looking in.

I’ll also note that Conclave is now 2nd in my projections for total nominations (9) behind Dune‘s 10.

You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

6. Anora (PR: 6) (E)

7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Room Next Door (PR: 19) (+4)

16. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (-2)

17. Maria (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

19. A Real Pain (PR: 22) (+3)

20. The End (PR: 16) (-4)

21. A Different Man (PR: 23) (+2)

22. Hard Truths (PR: 20) (-2)

23. The Fire Inside (PR: 21) (-2)

24. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 18) (-6)

25. Here (PR: 24) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Wicked

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)

9. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+6)

10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

11. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (E)

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)

9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)

11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)

14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (E)

15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Andrè Holland, The Actor (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)

13. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 13) (E)

14. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: 12) (E)

13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (E)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

15. Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kathy Burke, Blitz

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (+1)

10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Paul Raci, Sing Sing (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)

4. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

9. The End (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Dídi (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Challengers (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (E)

14. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Room Next Door (moved to Adapted Screenplay)

All We Imagine as Light

I Saw the TV Glow

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. Queer (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay

Other Possibilities:

6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Nightbitch (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Hit Man (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Here

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emila Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)

3. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (+2)

4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Uprising (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Caught by the Tides (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Simon of the Mountain

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Flow (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Transformers One (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Orion and the Dark

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)

4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (+1)

5. No Other Land (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)

9. Union (PR: 9) (E)

10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Frida

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Queer (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anora (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Maria

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Blitz (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

4. A Different Man (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Conclave (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Blitz (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Challengers (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Here

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+3)

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 10) (+3)

8. TBD from Wicked (PR: 3) (-5)

9. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Wicked (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 10) (E)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (E)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Twisters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Wicked (PR: 7) (-2)

10. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (E)

4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)

8. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

That equates to these movies nabbing these numbers of nominations:

10 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Conclave

8 Nominations

Blitz, Emilia Pérez

5 Nominations

Anora, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer, Sing Sing

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Wicked

2 Nominations

A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, Piece by Piece, The Room Next Door, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

97th Academy Awards Predictions: July 29th Edition

The unexpected announcement that James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown is releasing in 2024 shakes up my predictions. I have it being nominated in four races. That would include Best Picture (where it replaces The Piano Lesson) and Timothèe Chalamet in Actor as he vaults over The Piano Lesson‘s John David Washington. It was not a great week for Piano as I now have it being solely nominated for Samuel L. Jackson in Supporting Actor. Yet even he drops to second in favor of Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing.

The news is not all positive for that movie. As I hinted at last week, Sing Sing was a very soft frontrunner in BP and A24’s release strategy has been curious. Therefore I am elevating Steve McQueen’s Blitz back to first position with its director atop that category over Dune‘s Denis Villeneuve. Colman Domingo is still in my lead for Actor.

There are two alterations in the supporting fields with Isabella Rossellini returning to Supporting Actress over… you guessed it… Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) returns to my anticipated quintet in Supporting Actor in place of Adam Pearson from A Different Man.

The Venice and Toronto festivals have announced the bulk of their lineups for late August into September. There has also been screening news for New York and London and we have a general idea of some pics likely to play Telluride. The lack of certain titles at those events have caused me to drop some hopefuls. This include The Apprentice, The Collaboration, and Long Day’s Journey Into Night. Should they be confirmed for the 2024 calendar, I’ll obviously readjust.

A quick note on Pedro Almodóvar’s The Room Next Door. It appears that Julianne Moore is more likely to be in lead Actress with Tilda Swinton in supporting. I’ve made that change though I’ve yet to put either of the past winners in my final five picks.

Of course, this is all completely unknown at press time but you can peruse all my best guesswork below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 3) (+2)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

6. Anora (PR: 6) (E)

7. Queer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (-1)

16. The End (PR: 19) (+3)

17. Maria (PR: 18) (+1)

18. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

19. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (-2)

20. Hard Truths (PR: 22) (+2)

21. The Fire Inside (PR: 20) (-1)

22. A Real Pain (PR: 15) (-7)

23. A Different Man (PR: 21) (-2)

24. Here (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Wicked (PR: 24) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Apprentice

Dídi

His Three Daughters

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 6) (E)

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)

9. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

10. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (E)

15. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Marianne-Jean Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 12) (+1)

12. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door – moved to supporting

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+2)

7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-3)

8. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)

11. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)

13. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Paul Bettany, The Collaboration

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

15. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door – moved to lead

Erin Kellyman, Blitz

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 5) (-2)

8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Elliot Heffernan, Blitz

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hard Truths (PR:5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

9. The End (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Challengers (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-3)

14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 12) (-2)

15. I Saw the TV Glow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Apprentice

A Different Man

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Queer (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Hit Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Inside Out 2 (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-3)

13. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)

14. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (E)

15. Here (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Collaboration

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)

3. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Caught by the Tides (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Uprising (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Kneecap (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Emmanuelle

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Flow (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Savages (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Transformers One (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Most Precious of Cargoes

The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daughters (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (+2)

4. No Other Land (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)

9. Union (PR: 9) (E)

10. Frida (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anora (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Conclave (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Maria (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Queer (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Blitz (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Megalopolis

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)

5. A Different Man (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Queer (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Blitz (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Conclave (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Challengers (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Here (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (+1)

3. TBD from Wicked (PR: 5) (+2)

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-4)

7. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

“Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Maria (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (E)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

8. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Twisters (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Sing Sing

Civil War

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Here (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Twisters (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Mufasa: The Lion King

And that shakes out to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Blitz

7 Nominations

Conclave, Emilia Pérez

5 Nominations

Anora, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Sing Sing

4 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Nosferatu, Queer

3 Nominations

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

2 Nominations

A Different Man, A Real Pain, Wicked

1 Nomination

All We Imagine as Light, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

97th Academy Awards Predictions: July 21st Edition

Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing is already out in limited release and the A24 title is doing pretty impressive business in its four venues before a planned August expansion. Is it doing well enough to warrant a #1 spot in the BP rankings where I’ve had it for weeks?

That is a legit question and one that I’m struggling with in this particular update. With heralded performances from Colman Domingo and Clarence Maclin, it certainly seems like the type of crowdpleaser that could take the top prize. This could be without Kwedar landing a directing nod as I’ve yet to have him in the top five. If that plays out, it would be a similar situation to 2021 and the CODA victory despite Sian Heder missing the directorial quintet.

The bottom line is this: the #1 position in BP for Sing Sing is tenuous. I’ve got it clinging to that number though I considered Steve McQueen’s Blitz, Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two, and Edward Berger’s Conclave (the first trailer for it dropped this week). Of course, we are only a month and change away from festival season kicking off with Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. Those events always assist in clearing up the picture.

There was speculation that Clint Eastwood’s Juror No. 2 may not make the 2024 calendar for Warner Bros. Even when I thought it was likely to release this fall, I didn’t have it pegged as a BP player. I did have Toni Collette listed as a potential Supporting Actress hopeful along with Nicholas Hoult in Actor and at the bottom of the listed 15 in Original Screenplay. I am dropping Juror for now and would certainly adjust if it does materialize on the schedule.

Speaking of Supporting Actress, we got our first glimpse of The Deliverance from Lee Daniels this week. The supernatural horror flick (out on Netflix in late August) is not your typical awards fare. However, I am listing Glenn Close as a possibility. It is Glenn Close after all and she managed an Oscar nod recently for the critically panned Hillbilly Elegy (where she also was up for a Razzie).

In other news, my constant speculation on category placement continues. Saoirse Ronan is now back to being a double nominee in my view for lead Actress with The Outrun and Supporting Actress for Blitz (I can’t wait until this is cleared up). Ronan’s inclusion back in the supporting derby displaces Conclave‘s Isabella Rossellini. Another unclear item is the screenplay placement for Emilia Pérez. It could be considered Adapted and that’s where I had it a few days ago, but now I’m putting it in Original Screenplay (and just barely missing a nom).

We have two significant alterations in Best Actor. While the top 3 remain the same, I am now elevating Sebastian Stan’s performance in A Different Man over Sebastian Stan’s work in The Apprentice. John David Washington (The Piano Lesson) also enters the high five for the first time. André Holland (The Actor) drops out of the quintet.

In Supporting Actor, Adam Pearson in A Different Man enters the five over Denzel Washington in Gladiator II.

You can read all the movement below for these feature length categories!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Anora (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)

14. Nosferatu (PR: 20) (+6)

15. A Real Pain (PR: 19) (+4)

16. The Apprentice (PR: 14) (-2)

17. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (E)

18. Maria (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The End (PR: 15) (-4)

20. The Fire Inside (PR: 22) (+2)

21. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

22. Hard Truths (PR: 21) (-1)

23. Dídi (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

25. His Three Daughters (PR: 23) (-2)

Dropped Out:

All We Imagine as Light

Here

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)

13. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (E)

15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Joshua Oppenheimer, The End

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 10) (+1)

10. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (E)

15. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting Actress)

Zendaya, Challengers

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)

14. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Actress

5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

15. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Toni Collette, Juror No. 2

Emily Watson, Small Things like These

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (E)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 6) (-1)

9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (E)

11. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (E)

12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 13) (E)

14. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 15) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted

7. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-1)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)

11. The End (PR: 8) (-3)

12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (+1)

13. The Apprentice (PR: 11) (-2)

14. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Challengers (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

I Saw the TV Glow

Juror No. 2

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Queer (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)

8. Hit Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Inside Out 2 (PR: 10) (E)

11. The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-1)

13. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)

14. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Here (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Emilia Pérez – moved to Original

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 3) (E)

4. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Uprising (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kneecap (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Emmanuelle (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

The Girl with the Needle

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (E)

7. Savages (PR: 7) (E)

8. Orion and the Dark (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Black Box Diaries (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daughters (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (E)

4. Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Super/Man: A Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (E)

7. No Other Land (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)

9. Union (PR: 9) (E)

10. Frida (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)

4. Conclave (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 10) (E)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Wicked (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Megalopolis (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Conclave

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Challengers (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (+1)

4. A Different Man (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maria (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Longlegs

Nightbitch

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Queer (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Blitz (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nickel Boys

Nosferatu

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+3)

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+1)

7. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 3) (-4)

8. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 5) (-3)

9. “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Claw Machine” from I Saw the TV Glow

“Release” from Trap

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (E)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

9. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Queer

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Civil War (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A Quiet Place: Day One

Nosferatu

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Here (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Blitz (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

And that adds up to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nods:

10 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

8 Nominations

Blitz, Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

Conclave, Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Gladiator II

4 Nominations

Nosferatu, The Piano Lesson, Wicked

3 Nominations

A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Story, Nickel Boys, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

2 Nominations

Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nightbitch, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

All We Imagine as Light, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper