Adapting the 1967 novel by Emmanuelle Arsan and arriving 50 years after the first cinematic rendering of the adult romance source material, Emmanuelle is the opening selection of the San Sebastián International Film Festival. It is Audrey Diwan’s follow-up to 2021’s Happening which won the Golden Lion at the 2021 Venice Film Festival. Noémie Merlant, Naomi Watts, Will Sharpe, and Jamie Campbell Bower lead the cast.
Following the fest premiere, Emmanuelle hits French screens later this week. The reviews trickling out of Spain are lukewarm. There was some intrigue about which movie France would pick as its hopeful for International Feature Film. The speculation centered on Emilia Pérez and The Count of Monte Cristo with Emmanuelle seen as a dark horse. Pérez ended up as their choice. Based on the early buzz for this, it’s easy to see why this was not a viable option. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
To say there’s been plenty of news since my last predictions post on 09/03 is quite an understatement. It’s been confirmed that Clint Eastwood’s thriller Juror No. 2 will release in this calendar year. You’ll see that reflected below though I don’t have the movie or Toni Collette (in Supporting Actress) or the screenplay actually projected for nominations.
Then there is, of course, more screenings from the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. While Nightbitch is probably out of Best Picture contention, TIFF screenings suggest Amy Adams could still be a threat to make the Actress quintet. She’s back in my five. I had to make room anyway since Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) appears to be a supporting play and not lead. I hesitated to put Adams back in as Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) are serious threats. For that, so are Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) and Demi Moore (The Substance). It’s getting crowded in Actress.
Speaking of Joker, the mixed reaction from Cannes causes it to drop from 11th to 20th in my BP rankings.
There are gains for The Brutalist as it rises from 3rd to 1st in the BP derby. The announcement that A24 picked up it up for distribution might mean it’s now their #1 campaign. If so, that could have a detrimental effect on Sing Sing. That helps explain Adrien Brody getting to first in Best Actor over Colman Domingo. Clarence Maclin from Sing Sing stays at #1 in Supporting Actor over The Brutalist‘s Guy Pearce though I considered making that switch. And now Brady Corbet now sitting atop the charts in Director. Blitz had previously held the #1 positions in BP and Director but they slip to #2.
In Supporting Actress, two changes as Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) and Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) are in and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) are on the outside looking in.
And for the one change in BP, Venice’s Golden Lion winner The Room Next Door is in the 10 with A Complete Unknown falling out.
Please note that this update is the first time where Dune: Part Two is not the nomination leader. It’s now tied with 9 with Blitz and Emilia Pérez while The Brutalist sits with 10.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)
12. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (-1)
14. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Queer (PR: 14) (-1)
16. September 5 (PR: 23) (+7)
17. Nosferatu (PR: 17) (E)
18. The Apprentice (PR: 22) (+4)
19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 19) (E)
20. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-9)
21. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (-3)
22. Wicked (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
24. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
25. A Different Man (PR: 25) (E)
Dropped Out:
Nightbitch
Maria
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
12. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-1)
13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 13) (E)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux – moved to supporting
Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)
14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (E)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
André Holland, The Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Kathy Burke, Blitz
Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 15) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Stephen Graham, Blitz
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 9) (+2)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Dídi (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 14) (+2)
13. September 5 (PR: 11) (-2)
14. A Different Man (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-1)
10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Gladiator II (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
The Fire Inside
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (E)
5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Universal Language (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Caught by the Tides (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Count of Monte Cristo
Cloud
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)
5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Savages (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)
2. No Other Land (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Union (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+4)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Anora (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Queer
Maria
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Queer
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-6)
9. Queer (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Blitz
Nickel Boys
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Why Am I Here?” from Shirley (PR: 8) (-1)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux
“Compress/Repress” from Challengers
“Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Conclave (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+2)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Civil War
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Twisters (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Better Man (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wicked (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Alien: Romulus
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Conclave, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
The Room Next Door, Saturday Night
2 Nominations
Maria, Nickel Boys, Queer, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked
You can’t judge a movie by its trailer, but you can alter your Oscar Predictions and such is the case with Nightbitch. For many weeks, I’ve had Amy Adams perched atop my Best Actress list. The six-time nominee has to get the gold sometime right? After today’s first look, I don’t think this is the vehicle. Perhaps the Toronto Film Festival (where this screens in days) will prove me wrong.
Speaking of festivals, you might have heard that Telluride just concluded as Venice is at its midpoint. As both events tend to do, the awards landscape has been altered due to their premieres. Some pics and performers have risen while others have fallen.
The biggest winner at the time of this publication seems to be Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist from Venice. The three hour plus Holocaust survivor drama vaults 20 spots from #23 to #3 in my Best Picture rankings with Corbet in for his direction and Adrien Brody returning to the Actor derby. Mr. Brody knocks out Sebastian Stan in A Different Man. Speaking of Stan, he will also be vying for attention as Donald Trump in The Apprentice. It was confirmed this week that it will be released in October.
Another benefactor, this one from Telluride, is Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night. The solid reaction in Colorado puts it (barely) in my BP hopefuls along with Original Screenplay and Film Editing recognition.
The inclusion of these two newbies knocks out two others that didn’t fare quite as well in their unveilings – Queer and The Piano Lesson. They are both still listed in Other Possibilities but are no longer picks to make the big dance.
Three of the four acting races have new #1s. While Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) is still first in Actor (with Ralph Fiennes from Conclave and Adrien Brody hot on his heels), the aforementioned Adams plummets in Actress. In her place? Mikey Madison from Anora though Angelina Jolie (Maria) and Karla Sofia Gascón are close behind. Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) makes her first appearance in the quintet. Please note that Folie will screen in Venice tomorrow so we’ll know more then (keep an eye on the blog for its individual predictions post).
In Supporting Actress, my previous #1 Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) slides three positions with Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) moving up. Her costar Selena Gomez is now in my five as well and that takes out Tilda Swinton in The Room Next Door. I will say deciding between Gomez and Swinton for the 5 spot was basically a coin flip.
The news for Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson) and his chances are worse. He goes from 1st to 9th with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) back at one. Guy Pearce in The Brutalist, who would be a first-time nominee, rockets from 15th to 2nd in the race and Stanley Tucci (Conclave) reenters over his costar John Lithgow.
You can read all the movement – and there is plenty of movement indeed – below and my next update will likely come Sunday as more Venice titles screen and Toronto begins!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 23) (+20)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Conclave (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saturday Night (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (+2)
12. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (+8)
13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Queer (PR: 7) (-7)
15. The Room Next Door (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Gladiator II (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (-2)
18. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-9)
19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 22) (+3)
20. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-6)
21. Wicked (PR: 21) (E)
22. The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)
23. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
24. Maria (PR: 18) (-6)
25. A Different Man (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Hard Truths
The End
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)
7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)
10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 7) (-6)
14. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door
Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (-6)
8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (-2)
13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, We Live in Time
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 11) (+8)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (-3)
9. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Paul Mescal. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-7)
14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-6)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)
4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 13) (E)
14. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Valeria Golino, Maria
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 15) (+13)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (-8)
10. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)
11. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)
14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 9) (-5)
15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 3) (-12)
Dropped Out:
Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Saturday Night (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 14) (+9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Dídi (PR: 10) (E)
11. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Substance (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Challengers (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (-1)
15. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The End
Maria
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Queer (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Hit Man (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (-1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (E)
13. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Grand Tour (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (-2)
7. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Universal Language (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Cloud (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Caught by the Tides (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Evil Does Not Exist
Simon of the Mountain
Uprising
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)
5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Savages (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7 (E)
8. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Orion and the Dark (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Most Precious of Cargoes
Transformers One
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (+1)
4. No Other Land (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 3) (-3)
7. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Union
Gaucho Gaucho
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Anora (PR: 8) (E)
9. Queer (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Conclave
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Challengers (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
A Complete Unknown
Queer
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maria (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Sasquatch Sunset
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Queer (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Challengers (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
Here
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Why Am I Here” from Shirley (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Wicked
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Conclave (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Queer
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+2)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (E)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
A Quiet Place: Day One
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Twisters (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 6) (-4)
And that works out to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Blitz
8 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
The Brutalist
6 Nominations
Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Conclave
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, Saturday Night
2 Nominations
Maria, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
Black Box Diaries, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
In eights days, the Venice Film Festival will get underway followed the next day by Telluride and followed by Toronto the following week. The trio of events, as they always do, kick off a flurry of awards activity and dozens of Oscar Prediction posts on this blog. The fests in Italy, Colorado, and Canada will make the picture for the 97th Academy Awards considerably clearer.
As you peruse the titles listed below, here are just some which will debut at one or more of the festivals: Conclave, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Saturday Night, The End, Maria, Nightbitch, Babygirl, The Room Next Door, I’m Still Here, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, The Brutalist, The Fire Inside, Hard Truths, We Live in Time, The Wild Robot, Piece by Piece, and The Last Showgirl.
The plan is for my next update to arrive on Labor Day. By that time, quite a few of these titles will already have eyeballs on them and reviews will be written. Consider this the penultimate forecast before it gets really real.
This update comes with a pair of changes in the supporting fields. In Supporting Actress, Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) enters my quintet with Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) dropping out. Speaking of Conclave, John Lithgow is now in my Supporting Actor five over his costar Stanley Tucci.
You can peruse all the movement below as festival season is nearly upon us!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anora (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (E)
12. Saturday Night (PR: 18) (+6)
13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 12) (-3)
16. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-2)
17. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (-1)
18. Maria (PR: 17) (-1)
19. The End (PR: 20) (+1)
20. A Real Pain (PR: 19) (-1)
21. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
22. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 24) (+2)
23. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
24. A Different Man (PR: 21) (-3)
25. Hard Truths (PR: 22) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The Fire Inside
Here
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)
9. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)
10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)
11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 9) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
Marielle Heller, Nightbitch
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (E)
7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)
9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (E)
12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Zendaya, Challengers
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothèe Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tom Hanks, Here
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Selena Gomez, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (E)
12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Glenn Close, The Deliverance
Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (E)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+7)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 14) (E)
15. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Raci, Sing Sing
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saturday Night (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The End (PR: 9) (+1)
9. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Dídi (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Maria (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Challengers (PR: 12) (E)
13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Substance (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
A Different Man
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. Queer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12 (E)
13. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 13) (-2)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)
3. Grand Tour (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Caught by the Tides (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (E)
8. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)
9. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Uprising (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Kneecap
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Transformers One (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)
3. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sugarcane (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Other Land (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Union (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR 4) (E)
5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anora (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Complete Unknown
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Blitz (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Challengers (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (E)
7. Conclave (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maria (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Nightbitch
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Queer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Challengers (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
The Piano Lesson
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Wicked (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (-1)
7. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Why Am I Here” from Shirley (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Conclave (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Queer (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Maria
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Emilia Pérez
Twisters
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wicked (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Mufasa: The Lion King
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Blitz
8 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
6 Nominations
Gladiator II, Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Conclave, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Wicked
2 Nominations
A Different Man, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Black Box Diaries, Challengers, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, The Outrun, The Room Next Door, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
Is Saturday Night alright for Oscar? Jason Reitman’s latest picture chronicles the premiere of SNL back in 1975. The surprise announcement this week is that it has wrapped production and will hit theaters on October 11th. That’s exactly 49 years after the iconic NBC sketch show debuted.
One week after the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown joined the 2024 calendar, Saturday will try to get into the Academy mix. The most likely categories for the Sony release are significant ones – Picture, Director, and especially Original Screenplay. The cast also presents some possibilities like Gabriel LaBelle (from The Fabelmans) as Lorne Michaels. I’m assuming he’d be campaigned for in lead Actor though nothing is confirmed. In Supporting Actress, let’s see if Rachel Sennott as writer Rosie Shuster and Ella Hunt as legendary cast member Gilda Radner get in the convo.
I am not elevating Saturday Night into my predictions for any race yet, but you’ll see it in the possibilities section.
The Piano Lesson gets a boost this week as it is back in BP over The Seed of the Sacred Fig. Piano‘s Samuel L. Jackson also returns to #1 in Supporting Actor with his costar Danielle Deadwyler back in the quintet for Supporting Actress. Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters) drops.
Mohammad Rasolouf in Director also falls out for Seed in favor of Anora‘s Sean Baker. Pedro Almodóvar’s The Room Next Door shifts from Original to Adapted Screenplay and makes my cut with Dune: Part Two on the outside looking in.
I’ll also note that Conclave is now 2nd in my projections for total nominations (9) behind Dune‘s 10.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
6. Anora (PR: 6) (E)
7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Room Next Door (PR: 19) (+4)
16. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (-2)
17. Maria (PR: 17) (E)
18. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
19. A Real Pain (PR: 22) (+3)
20. The End (PR: 16) (-4)
21. A Different Man (PR: 23) (+2)
22. Hard Truths (PR: 20) (-2)
23. The Fire Inside (PR: 21) (-2)
24. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 18) (-6)
25. Here (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Wicked
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+6)
10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
11. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (E)
7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)
9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)
11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (E)
15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Andrè Holland, The Actor (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)
13. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 13) (E)
14. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: 12) (E)
13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (E)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kathy Burke, Blitz
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (+1)
10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Paul Raci, Sing Sing (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)
4. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. The End (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Dídi (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Challengers (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (E)
14. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Room Next Door (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
All We Imagine as Light
I Saw the TV Glow
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. Queer (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay
Other Possibilities:
6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Nightbitch (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Hit Man (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Here
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emila Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)
3. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Uprising (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Caught by the Tides (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Simon of the Mountain
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Flow (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Transformers One (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Orion and the Dark
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)
4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Other Land (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)
9. Union (PR: 9) (E)
10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Frida
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Queer (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anora (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Maria
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Blitz (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)
4. A Different Man (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Conclave (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Blitz (PR: 7) (E)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Challengers (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Here
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+3)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 10) (+3)
8. TBD from Wicked (PR: 3) (-5)
9. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Wicked (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (E)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Twisters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Wicked (PR: 7) (-2)
10. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (E)
4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)
8. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
That equates to these movies nabbing these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Conclave
8 Nominations
Blitz, Emilia Pérez
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer, Sing Sing
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Wicked
2 Nominations
A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, Piece by Piece, The Room Next Door, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
The unexpected announcement that James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown is releasing in 2024 shakes up my predictions. I have it being nominated in four races. That would include Best Picture (where it replaces The Piano Lesson) and Timothèe Chalamet in Actor as he vaults over The Piano Lesson‘s John David Washington. It was not a great week for Piano as I now have it being solely nominated for Samuel L. Jackson in Supporting Actor. Yet even he drops to second in favor of Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing.
The news is not all positive for that movie. As I hinted at last week, Sing Sing was a very soft frontrunner in BP and A24’s release strategy has been curious. Therefore I am elevating Steve McQueen’s Blitz back to first position with its director atop that category over Dune‘s Denis Villeneuve. Colman Domingo is still in my lead for Actor.
There are two alterations in the supporting fields with Isabella Rossellini returning to Supporting Actress over… you guessed it… Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) returns to my anticipated quintet in Supporting Actor in place of Adam Pearson from A Different Man.
The Venice and Toronto festivals have announced the bulk of their lineups for late August into September. There has also been screening news for New York and London and we have a general idea of some pics likely to play Telluride. The lack of certain titles at those events have caused me to drop some hopefuls. This include The Apprentice, The Collaboration, and Long Day’s Journey Into Night. Should they be confirmed for the 2024 calendar, I’ll obviously readjust.
A quick note on Pedro Almodóvar’s The Room Next Door. It appears that Julianne Moore is more likely to be in lead Actress with Tilda Swinton in supporting. I’ve made that change though I’ve yet to put either of the past winners in my final five picks.
Of course, this is all completely unknown at press time but you can peruse all my best guesswork below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 3) (+2)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
6. Anora (PR: 6) (E)
7. Queer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (-1)
16. The End (PR: 19) (+3)
17. Maria (PR: 18) (+1)
18. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
19. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (-2)
20. Hard Truths (PR: 22) (+2)
21. The Fire Inside (PR: 20) (-1)
22. A Real Pain (PR: 15) (-7)
23. A Different Man (PR: 21) (-2)
24. Here (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Wicked (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Apprentice
Dídi
His Three Daughters
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 6) (E)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
10. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (E)
15. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting
7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Marianne-Jean Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 12) (+1)
12. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door – moved to supporting
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+2)
7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-3)
8. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)
11. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)
13. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Paul Bettany, The Collaboration
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door – moved to lead
Erin Kellyman, Blitz
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 5) (-2)
8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Elliot Heffernan, Blitz
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hard Truths (PR:5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. The End (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Challengers (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-3)
14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 12) (-2)
15. I Saw the TV Glow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Apprentice
A Different Man
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Queer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Hit Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Inside Out 2 (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-3)
13. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (E)
15. Here (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Collaboration
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)
3. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Caught by the Tides (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Uprising (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kneecap (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Emmanuelle
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Flow (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Savages (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Transformers One (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Most Precious of Cargoes
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (+2)
4. No Other Land (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)
9. Union (PR: 9) (E)
10. Frida (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anora (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Conclave (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Maria (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Queer (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Blitz (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Megalopolis
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)
5. A Different Man (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Queer (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Blitz (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Conclave (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Challengers (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Here (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (+1)
3. TBD from Wicked (PR: 5) (+2)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-4)
7. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
“Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maria (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (E)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Twisters (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Sing Sing
Civil War
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Here (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Twisters (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Mufasa: The Lion King
And that shakes out to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Blitz
7 Nominations
Conclave, Emilia Pérez
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Sing Sing
4 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Nosferatu, Queer
3 Nominations
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
2 Nominations
A Different Man, A Real Pain, Wicked
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing is already out in limited release and the A24 title is doing pretty impressive business in its four venues before a planned August expansion. Is it doing well enough to warrant a #1 spot in the BP rankings where I’ve had it for weeks?
That is a legit question and one that I’m struggling with in this particular update. With heralded performances from Colman Domingo and Clarence Maclin, it certainly seems like the type of crowdpleaser that could take the top prize. This could be without Kwedar landing a directing nod as I’ve yet to have him in the top five. If that plays out, it would be a similar situation to 2021 and the CODA victory despite Sian Heder missing the directorial quintet.
The bottom line is this: the #1 position in BP for Sing Sing is tenuous. I’ve got it clinging to that number though I considered Steve McQueen’s Blitz, Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two, and Edward Berger’s Conclave (the first trailer for it dropped this week). Of course, we are only a month and change away from festival season kicking off with Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. Those events always assist in clearing up the picture.
There was speculation that Clint Eastwood’s Juror No. 2 may not make the 2024 calendar for Warner Bros. Even when I thought it was likely to release this fall, I didn’t have it pegged as a BP player. I did have Toni Collette listed as a potential Supporting Actress hopeful along with Nicholas Hoult in Actor and at the bottom of the listed 15 in Original Screenplay. I am dropping Juror for now and would certainly adjust if it does materialize on the schedule.
Speaking of Supporting Actress, we got our first glimpse of The Deliverance from Lee Daniels this week. The supernatural horror flick (out on Netflix in late August) is not your typical awards fare. However, I am listing Glenn Close as a possibility. It is Glenn Close after all and she managed an Oscar nod recently for the critically panned Hillbilly Elegy (where she also was up for a Razzie).
In other news, my constant speculation on category placement continues. Saoirse Ronan is now back to being a double nominee in my view for lead Actress with The Outrun and Supporting Actress for Blitz (I can’t wait until this is cleared up). Ronan’s inclusion back in the supporting derby displaces Conclave‘s Isabella Rossellini. Another unclear item is the screenplay placement for Emilia Pérez. It could be considered Adapted and that’s where I had it a few days ago, but now I’m putting it in Original Screenplay (and just barely missing a nom).
We have two significant alterations in Best Actor. While the top 3 remain the same, I am now elevating Sebastian Stan’s performance in A Different Man over Sebastian Stan’s work in The Apprentice. John David Washington (The Piano Lesson) also enters the high five for the first time. André Holland (The Actor) drops out of the quintet.
In Supporting Actor, Adam Pearson in A Different Man enters the five over Denzel Washington in Gladiator II.
You can read all the movement below for these feature length categories!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Anora (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 20) (+6)
15. A Real Pain (PR: 19) (+4)
16. The Apprentice (PR: 14) (-2)
17. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (E)
18. Maria (PR: 16) (-2)
19. The End (PR: 15) (-4)
20. The Fire Inside (PR: 22) (+2)
21. ADifferent Man (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Hard Truths (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Dídi (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
25. His Three Daughters (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All We Imagine as Light
Here
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)
13. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (E)
15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Joshua Oppenheimer, The End
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 10) (+1)
10. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (E)
15. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting Actress)
Zendaya, Challengers
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)
14. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Actress
5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Juror No. 2
Emily Watson, Small Things like These
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (E)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 6) (-1)
9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (E)
11. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (E)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 13) (E)
14. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 15) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-1)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)
11. The End (PR: 8) (-3)
12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Apprentice (PR: 11) (-2)
14. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Challengers (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
I Saw the TV Glow
Juror No. 2
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Queer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)
8. Hit Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Inside Out 2 (PR: 10) (E)
11. The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-1)
13. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)
14. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Here (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Emilia Pérez – moved to Original
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 3) (E)
4. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Uprising (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kneecap (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Emmanuelle (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Girl with the Needle
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (E)
7. Savages (PR: 7) (E)
8. Orion and the Dark (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Black Box Diaries (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daughters (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (E)
4. Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Super/Man: A Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. No Other Land (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)
9. Union (PR: 9) (E)
10. Frida (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)
4. Conclave (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Megalopolis (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Conclave
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Challengers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (+1)
4. A Different Man (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maria (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Longlegs
Nightbitch
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Queer (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Blitz (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nickel Boys
Nosferatu
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+3)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+1)
7. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 3) (-4)
8. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Claw Machine” from I Saw the TV Glow
“Release” from Trap
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Queer
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Civil War (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A Quiet Place: Day One
Nosferatu
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Here (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Blitz (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
And that adds up to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nods:
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
8 Nominations
Blitz, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Conclave, Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Nosferatu, The Piano Lesson, Wicked
3 Nominations
A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Story, Nickel Boys, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
2 Nominations
Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nightbitch, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
We are beyond the midway point of 2024 so it’s time for me to forecast all feature-length film categories at the 97th Academy Awards! The result? Unsurprisingly, Dune: Part Two leads all nominees with 10 with Blitz and Emilia Pérez close behind at 9 and #1 BP selection Sing Sing at 7.
A caveat as obviously we are quite early to project certain races (Song comes to mind as does International Feature Film and Documentary Feature). Please note that all new competitions contain 10 possibilities while the acting and directing prizes list 15 (with 25 for BP). Those will likely get dwindled down around September.
We are still dealing with the matter of category placement. I’m going with the general consensus and now putting Carrie Coon’s work in His Three Daughters in lead Actress while her costar Natasha Lyonne is in supporting. Ms. Lyonne makes the cut in that race (replacing Coon).
I toyed with putting Saoirse Ronan back in Supporting Actress for Blitz since it’s been confirmed that her heralded role in The Outrun is officially out in October. Ultimately I decided to keep her in lead and I’m giving her the nom in Blitz over Outrun (slightly).
While BP remains the same, I’ve elevated Sean Baker’s direction in Anora over Mohammad Rasoulof for The Seed of the Sacred Fig. We also have Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) in Supporting Actor for the first time and that displaces Harris Dickinson (Blitz) from the quintet. With its trailer out, Gladiator II rises three sports in the BP hopefuls.
You can read all the movement and peep the new races below! I’ll have another update available before the end of July…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (E)
12. Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Apprentice (PR: 14) (E)
15. The End (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Maria (PR: 19) (+3)
17. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (E)
18. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 20) (+2)
19. A Real Pain (PR: 16) (-3)
20. Nosferatu (PR: 18) (-2)
21. Hard Truths (PR: Not Ranked)
22. The Fire Inside (PR: 21) (-1)
23. His Three Daughters (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Here (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Dídi (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
We Live in Time
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)
7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (E)
12. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Payal Kapadaia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)
14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting
11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
15.Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters – moved to supporting
Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance
Noémie Merlant, Emmanuelle
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)
8. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
11. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Hanks, Here
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (E)
13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters – moved to lead
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)
7. His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The End (PR: 8) (E)
9. Dídi (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (+1)
11. The Apprentice (PR: 9) (-1)
12. Challengers (PR: 15) (+3)
13. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)
14. I Saw the TV Glow (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Juror No. 2 (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Maria
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Hit Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Inside Out 2 (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Fire Inside (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Collaboration (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Here (PR: 15) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez
2. I’m Still Here
3. The Count of Monte Cristo
4. Uprising
5. Grand Tour
Other Possibilities:
6. Simon of the Mountain
7. Evil Does Not Exist
8. Emmanuelle
9. Kneecap
10. The Girl with the Needle
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2
2. The Wild Robot
3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
4. Flow
5. Memoir of a Snail
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2
7. Savages
8. The Most Precious of Cargoes
9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
10. Orion and the Dark
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Black Box Diaries
2. Daughters
3. Sugarcane
4. No Other Land
5. Will & Harper
Other Possibilities:
6. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story
7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
8. Gaucho Gaucho
9. Union
10. Frida
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Blitz
3. Nosferatu
4. Anora
5. Gladiator II
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez
7. Conclave
8. Joker: Folie à Deux
9. Queer
10. Maria
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Gladiator II
4. Nosferatu
5. Blitz
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story
7. Maria
8. Megalopolis
9. Conclave
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Blitz
3. Sing Sing
4. Anora
5. Emilia Pérez
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story
8. Gladiator II
9. Challengers
10. Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Nosferatu
3. A Different Man
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story
5. Maria
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
7. Joker: Folie à Deux
8. Sasquatch Sunset
9. Longlegs
10. Nightbitch
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Joker: Folie à Deux
3. Sing Sing
4. Queer
5. Emilia Pérez
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz
7. Gladiator II
8. Nickel Boys
9. Nosferatu
10. Challengers
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez
2. TBD from Sing Sing
3. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless
5. TBD from Moana 2
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux
7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper
8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers
9. “Claw Machine” from I Saw the TV Glow
10. “Release” from Trap
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Blitz
3. Gladiator II
4. Nosferatu
5. Wicked
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
7. Joker: Folie à Deux
8. Conclave
9. Beetlejuce Beetlejuice
10. Queer
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Gladiator II
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
4. Blitz
5. Emilia Pérez
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters
7. Wicked
8. A Quiet Place: Day One
9. Civil War
10. Nosferatu
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Gladiator II
3. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
4. Mufasa: The Lion King
5. Here
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
7. Blitz
8. Twisters
9. Nosferatu
10. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
And, for the first time in 2024, my tally for overall nominations for various pictures are as follows:
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Blitz, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Sing Sing
6 Nominations
Anora, Conclave, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Nosferatu, The Piano Lesson, Queer
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys
2 Nominations
Furiosa: A Mad Max Story, Maria, Mufasa: The Lion King, A Real Pain, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Wicked
1 Nomination
The Actor, The Apprentice, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Joker: Folie à Deux, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Nightbitch, No Other Land, Sugarcane, Uprising, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
France may have a tricky decision to make when it comes to selecting their Best International Feature Film contender. One such hopeful is The Count of Monte Cristo based on the mid-19th century adventure by Alexandre Dumas. It premiered at Cannes in May and is out in its native country already. Matthieu Delaporte and Alexandre de La Patellière co-direct with a cast including Pierre Niney, Bastien Bouillon, Anaïs Demoustier, Anamaria Vartolomei, and Laurent Lafitte.
Based on a small number of reviews, Count totals 100% on RT. They’re not all raves, but are encouraging enough that France should consider it for submission. Another Cannes premiere – the animated The Most Precious of Cargoes from the Oscar winning The Artist director Michel Hazanavicius – drew a more mixed reaction. Audrey Diwan’s thriller Emmanuelle is arriving this fall and it could also be a player in the awards game.
Eight pictures from France have made the cut in the 21st century with no victors (you have to go back to 1992’s Indochine for that). Cristo could get in, but I wouldn’t count on it becoming the first winner in over three decades. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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