June 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts will attempt to topple Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, but that could be a tall order. Beasts is the sole wide release this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The seventh entry in the franchise based on the Hasbro toy line will not have the lowest start of the bunch. That belongs and will continue to belong to Bumblebee which started with $21 million over the holidays in 2018. It may, however, have the second smallest if it fails to exceed the $44 million three-day premiere that Transformers: The Last Knight had in the summer of 2017. I am projecting it will fall under that mark.

That should leave Across the Spider-Verse in first position after an amazing rollout this past weekend (more on that below). While I think the sophomore frame dip will be more than 50%, I believe a high 50s gross will comfortably leave it atop the charts.

Holdovers will fill slots 3-5. The Little Mermaid, after an expectedly hefty second weekend fall, should level off and get above $20 million in weekend 3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 may remain fourth since it shouldn’t see a percentage drop as large as The Boogeyman‘s in its second outing.

And with that, here’s how I envision the top five:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $58.4 million

2. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

Predicted Gross: $42.2 million

3. The Little Mermaid

Predicted Gross: $22.5 million

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

5. The Boogeyman

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

Box Office Results (June 2-4)

Swinging the #2 best premiere of 2023 behind The Super Mario Bros. Movie was Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. That’s also the seventh highest animated opening ever. It built upon the goodwill from its 2018 Oscar-winning predecessor and made off with $120.6 million. That’s well beyond my projection of $96.4 million. Look for it to play well throughout the season (and it’s certainly the frontrunner to win Best Animated Feature next year).

The Little Mermaid slipped to second with $41.3 million in its sophomore frame, on track with my $40.5 million take. The ten-day gross for the live-action Disney remake is $186 million. That’s pretty decent, but its overseas earnings are underwhelming.

PG-13 horror flick The Boogeyman, based on a Stephen King short story, couldn’t pick up buzz as Spidey sucked up all the oxygen. It made $12.3 million for third, falling below my $17.7 million prediction.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was fourth with $10.6 million (I said $9.6 million) as the MCU threequel is up to $323 million after five weeks.

Fast X rounded out the top five with $9.5 million compared to my $10.1 million forecast. It’s doing better internationally, but the three-week $128 million domestic haul is unimpressive.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 2-4 Box Office Predictions

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse swings into multiplexes for a highly likely first place debut while The Boogeyman lurks for a start in third position. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Spidey is the follow-up to 2018’s Oscar-winning animated adventure Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. In addition to plenty of awards, it had an A+ Cinemascore grade and nearly $200 million in domestic sales. Anticipation should be elevated for the sequel (with part 3 coming next year). That’s why some estimates have this as lofty as $100 million. I’m a tad more conservative, but I’ll say it clears $90 million.

The Boogeyman should take advantage of its PG-13 rating, the connection to Stephen King for the source material, and that there’s been a slight lull between horror flicks. Heck – it probably helps that it’s called The Boogeyman. I could see this opening similarly to The Black Phone and Smile. That would mean high teens or low 20s for a solid third place showing.

Memorial Day weekend champ The Little Mermaid should drop to second after a mixed bag of a debut (more on that below). A mid 50s dip (similar to the live-action Aladdin four years ago) would mean a number slightly north of $40 million.

The 4-5 slots should belong to sequel holdovers Fast X and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. It could be a close race between the two as they each may earn a tad over $10 million.

Here’s how I see it looking:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $96.4 million

2. The Little Mermaid

Predicted Gross: $40.5 million

3. The Boogeyman

Predicted Gross: $17.7 million

4. Fast X

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

Box Office Results (May 26-29)

As expected, Disney’s The Little Mermaid (updating the 1989 classic) swam to the top of the charts. It did so on the lower end of its expected range. Over the four-day holiday, the total was $118.8 million. That’s below my take of $132.1 million. While nowhere near the starts of Beauty and the Beast or The Lion King from 2017 and 2019, it is on pace with what Aladdin accomplished over Memorial Day four years back.

Fast X slipped to second with $28.5 million and that managed to exceed my $25.4 million estimate. Vin Diesel and company have seen the beginning to the end of their two-decade long franchise earn $113 million thus far.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was third with $26.8 million, on target with my $26 million call. The MCU threequel stands at $306 million.

The Super Mario Bros. Movie took fourth place with $8.2 million (I said $7.6 million) to bring its massive haul to $560 million.

Spots 5-7, as anticipated, went to three newcomers. I didn’t correctly call their placements. The Machine with popular standup and podcaster Bert Kreischer was fifth with $5.8 million, ahead of my $3.7 million forecast. While not spectacular, it’s on the better end of its predicted range.

About My Father, featuring another popular standup Sebastian Maniscalco alongside Robert De Niro, was on the lesser end of the range. The family comedy was sixth with $5.3 million. I said a touch more at $6.2 million.

Finally, Gerard Butler’s action pic Kandahar bombed in seventh with only $2.8 million. I was more generous at $4.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast where I discuss all things box office by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation wherever you like to stream. Until next time…

The Boogeyman Box Office Prediction

20th Century Studios is hoping plenty of viewers will be creeped out by The Boogeyman on June 2nd. The PG-13 horror pic is based on a half century old short story by Stephen King with Rob Savage directing. Cast members include Sophie Thatcher (no relation that I’m aware of), Chris Messina, Vivien Lyra Blair, and David Dastmalchian.

Budgeted at just over $40 million, this was originally slated for a streaming premiere on Hulu. Encouraging test screenings changed the plan and now it’s being unveiled in approximately 3000 venues.

This genre has seen its share of successes as of late. There are two comps from 2022 that seem appropriate. The Black Phone was a summer release with some similar themes and based on a novel by King’s son Joe Hill. It started off with $23.6 million. Last fall’s Smile is similar in the sense that it was supposed to roll out on Paramount+ and the pattern was altered due to its positive audience scores. A $22.6 million debut was the result.

The Rotten Tomatoes score is 64%. While under the 83% of Phone and 79% from Smile, that’s just fine to keep the buzz decent. I can’t find a compelling reason why this wouldn’t hit the mid to high teens or low 20s as well.

The Boogeyman opening weekend prediction: $17.7 million

For my Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse prediction, click here: