Tag: The Blackening

June 23-25 Box Office Predictions

Following a weekend in which two high profile pictures opened far under what their respective studios hoped for, a pair of comedies debut wide attempting to find an audience. They are Jennifer Lawrence’s raunchy comedy No Hard Feelings and Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

No Hard Feelings Box Office Prediction
Asteroid City Box Office Prediction

Feelings marks Lawrence’s first headlining role in theaters since Red Sparrow over five years ago. This isn’t a genre she’s known for and comedies in general struggle to break out these days in multiplexes. It could be lucky to top $10 million and that should put it in fourth position for a soft start.

Asteroid City performed impressively in its limited NY/LA six theater engagement. Branching out to middle America is another ballgame and my estimate puts it in sixth.

As for the #1 spot… well, it gets interesting. Before The Flash premiered, the assumption was it would have two weeks to itself atop the charts. However, the Ezra Miller led DCEU adventure opened way below expectations (more on that below). With a weak B Cinemascore grade, a drop in the mid 60s could occur. If Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse sees a small decline in the 30% range, Spidey may return to the top spot over his superhero competitor. I’m guessing that will be the case.

The Flash wasn’t the only bomb as Pixar’s Elemental, for all intents and purposes, had the weakest wide release in the studio’s near 30 year history. It had an A Cinemascore grade so it may only dip in the mid to high 40s for third place.

I have Transformers: Rise of the Beasts falling around 55-60% in its third frame for fifth place with The Little Mermaid right behind Asteroid City in seventh.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $18.9 million

2. The Flash

Predicted Gross: $17.5 million

3. Elemental

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million

4. No Hard Feelings

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million

5. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

6. Asteroid City

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

7. The Little Mermaid

Predicted Gross: $7 million

Box Office Results (June 16-18)

You can read a whole slew of think pieces as to why The Flash failed so badly in its debut. I had it making $83.2 million. It… um… didn’t. The DCEU title earned an unthinkable $55 million marking a sizable disappointment for Warner Bros. Here’s a figure I can’t stop thinking about. Twelve summers ago, notorious dud Green Lantern rolled out with $53 million. Adjusted for inflation, that’s better than The Flash. Ouch.

If it weren’t for the paragraph above, there would likely be more think pieces about Elemental not connecting with audiences. The Pixar animated feature was second with just $29.6 million. I was on target with a $30.6 million prediction. On the heels of Lightyear flopping last summer, this is two under performers in a row for the Disney property.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was third with $27 million, in range with my $27.6 million call. The three-week tally is $279 million and, per above, I see it leaping to first yet again.

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts tumbled 66% in weekend #2 with $20.6 million (I said $21.8 million). The ten-day take is $101 million.

The Little Mermaid rounded out the top five with $11 million, falling below my $13.8 million forecast. The Disney live-action remake has made $253 million thus far in its four weeks.

Finally, horror spoof The Blackening couldn’t translate positive reviews to brisk business. It was sixth with $6 million compared to my $7.7 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 16-18 Box Office Predictions

A trio of newcomers hits multiplexes this weekend with the much-publicized DCEU adventure The Flash, Pixar’s Elemental, and horror spoof The Blackening. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

The Flash Box Office Prediction
Elemental Box Office Prediction
The Blackening Box Office Prediction

There’s little question that The Flash will bolt to #1. The question is with how much. While I don’t see it reaching nine figures, I do believe $80-90 million is within reach. It is worth noting that fresh tracking shows it could fall short of that number so keep an eye on my blog this week to see if I maintain my rosy outlook.

I don’t have a flowery vision for how Elemental will perform. After Pixar experienced a high-profile flop last summer with Lightyear, their latest could find itself in a battle with fellow animated pic Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (in its third frame) for #2. I’ll give Elemental the slight benefit of the doubt, but not by much.

Spider-Verse should only drop a spot because I believe it’ll see around a 50% fall. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts significantly exceeded my projection (more on that below). Yet it could dip in the mid 60s and that would mean a slide from 1st to 4th.

The Little Mermaid should round out the top five with a 40% drop and that brings us to The Blackening. The scary parody is reported to release in only about 1800 venues and that could limit the potential. I’ll say it doesn’t hit $10 million and is in sixth.

And with that, here’s how I envision that top 6:

1. The Flash

Predicted Gross: $83.2 million

2. Elemental

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $27.6 million

4. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

Predicted Gross: $21.8 million

5. The Little Mermaid

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

6. The Blackening

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

Box Office Results (June 9-11)

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts couldn’t match the $100M+ earnings of early franchise entries. However, it did blast past my prediction with $61 million compared to my measly $42.2 million call. That’s on the top end of its anticipated range and, like other Transformers pics, it should perform well overseas. There might just be a little juice left in the series.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse had a sturdy hold of 54% in its sophomore weekend with $55.5 million, a bit under my $58.4 million forecast. The acclaimed sequel has amassed $225 million in ten days.

The Little Mermaid was third with $23.1 million (on target with my $22.5 million take) for $229 million in three weeks.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was fourth with $7.2 million (I said $6.6 million) for an overall haul of $335 million.

Finally, The Boogeyman held up stronger in weekend #2 that I assumed with $7.1 million. I went lower at $5.8 million. The two-week tally is a so-so $24 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Blackening Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate would love to see The Blackening post Scary Movie style numbers when it debuts June 16th. That’s probably wishful thinking. The horror parody comes from Tim Story, who directed Barbershop, 2005 and 2007’s Fantastic Four pics, and the two Ride Along action comedies. Grace Byers, Jermaine Fowler, Melvin Gregg, X Mayo, Dewayne Perkins (who co-scripted), Antoinette Robertson, Sinqua Walls, Jay Pharoah, and Yvonne Orji are among the cast.

When this screened at the Toronto Film Festival way back in September, early word-of-mouth was pretty encouraging. That said, comedies in general have failed to cash in over the past several years. Over the Memorial Day weekend, both The Machine and About My Father didn’t break out.

The Blackening could surprise if African-American audiences and horror fans turn out. If they do, an opening of over $10 million could be achievable. Given the genre’s struggles, I’ll put it under. Another limiting factor could be the reported smallish screen count of 1800 venues.

The Blackening opening weekend prediction: $7.7 million

For my The Flash prediction, click here:

The Flash Box Office Prediction

For my Elemental prediction, click here:

Elemental Box Office Prediction