Tag: The Bikeriders

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actor Race

My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

The second post in this series is Best Supporting Actor. If you missed my write-up for Best Actress, you can access it here:

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race

Unlike some of the other categories… Best Picture for example… I do believe there’s a legit frontrunner in Supporting Actor and that’s Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. He has received a quartet of significant Oscar precursor nominations thus far: the Golden Globe, the BAFTA long list, SAG, and Critics Choice. That’s in addition to a slew of critics group prizes. Most significantly, he won the Golden Globe last week. The only potential drawback to a victory is that A Real Pain is a question mark for Best Picture inclusion. Since the Academy’s BP nominees expanded to more than five (and now a set 10) starting in 2009, 14 of the 15 Supporting Actor recipients came from films nominated in the biggest race. The only exception is 2011 with Christopher Plummer from Beginners. If A Real Pain gets into the BP derby, it’ll be much simpler to project Culkin as the victor. If not, that makes him more of a soft leader in the contest.

There are two other performers with the aforementioned precursors to their credit – Yura Borisov in Anora and Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown. At this juncture, it would be bold to leave either of them off the ballot. Both come from surefire BP hopefuls.

So does Guy Pearce of The Brutalist. The veteran actor seeks his first nomination. I’ve had him consistently ranked 2nd behind Culkin for weeks. His SAG omission was a surprise, but he still looks relatively safe for inclusion.

That leaves us with one spot left to fill. Before we consider that, let’s remember a time when these gentlemen had shots for the 97th Academy Awards. In some cases, the movies didn’t turn out to be Oscar contenders or their roles weren’t substantial enough to make the cut. I speak of Tom Hardy or Michael Shannon from The Bikeriders, Benedict Cumberbatch in The Book of Clarence, Brendan Gleeson in Joker: Folie à Deux, and Giancarlo Esposito from Megalopolis.

There’s a next level up of performances. It might not be totally impossible for them to get in, but there’s been no evidence precursor wise to realistically believe they’re a threat. This list includes Josh O’Connor from Challengers, Peter Sarsgaard and John Magaro from September 5 and Bill Skarsgård and Willem Dafoe in Nosferatu, and Drew Starkey in Queer. Same goes for Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside), Adam Pearson (A Different Man), and Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson). Chris Hemsworth drew raves for Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, but he hasn’t shown up anywhere. Same story for Dune: Part Two supporting players Javier Bardem and Austin Butler. And John Lithgow (Conclave) and Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora) are likely to cede the spotlight to their costars.

With one spot remaining, I have five contenders worthy of chatter: Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Stanley Tucci (Conclave), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?

Speaking of costars, it sure seemed like Wicked‘s Jonathan Bailey would be on the outside looking in while his popular cast mates Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande would get noms. Yet his unexpected SAG inclusion this week puts him in the mix. Nevertheless I have him 5th out of these 5 possibilities.

Clarence Maclin took his real life experience behind bars and became a critical darling playing himself in Sing Sing. He made the BAFTA long list and Critics Choice ballot but missed SAG and the Globes. Oscar may still remember him, but he’s currently 3rd out of these 5 possibilities.

Jeremy Strong’s work as Roy Cohn in The Apprentice has snagged BAFTA long list, the Globes, and SAG and only missed Critics Choice. An excellent argument can be made for Culkin’s Succession costar. At the moment, I have him 2nd of the 5 possibilities which puts him just outside. I could see that changing when I make final picks on Wednesday.

Stanley Tucci is a dark horse for Conclave. No SAG, Globe, or Critics Choice. Just the BAFTA long list and I don’t have him predicted to make their final five. I could envision a scenario where he comes along for the ride at Oscar if they really love Conclave. He’s 4th out of these 5 possibilities.

Denzel Washington’s turn in Gladiator II was correctly called the sequel’s brightest spot. He has the BAFTA long list, Globe, and Critics Choice locked down. SAG voters, on the other hand, surprisingly ignored him. That makes a 10th acting Oscar nomination questionable. I currently have him 1st out of these 5 possibilities and that gets him in. This is mainly predicated on the fact that he’s Denzel Washington and that has worked before (see his 2017 nomination for Roman J. Israel, Esq.).

There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Supporting Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a dive into Supporting Actress up next!

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race

My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

Let’s begin with Best Actress as it might be the most tricky of all to figure out (though the supporting competitions are up there too). I believe there are three performers whose nominations you can write down in pen.

For months, I’ve had Mikey Madison (Anora) listed in 1st place for her work in Anora. She’s been nominated everywhere she needs to be – Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, the BAFTA long list. The film is definitely in the top 5 of Best Picture hopefuls. In other words, she’s in.

That said, just yesterday, I slid her from 1st to 2nd in favor of Demi Moore in The Substance. That’s mainly because Moore was victorious over Madison at the Golden Globes in the Actress (Musical or Comedy) category. Furthermore, Hollywood loves a comeback story. That is present with Demi. She managed all the aforementioned precursors that Madison has and there’s a win in her favor. I do believe the Oscar could go to either of them, but this seems reminiscent of Best Actor in 2022. Austin Butler (Elvis) was the young upstart like Madison. Brendan Fraser (The Whale) was the once major movie star in a comeback vehicle that also involved heavy makeup work. Fraser got the gold.

I would put Moore and Madison’s chances of making the final five at 100% or at least 99.9999999%. The third “pen” pick is Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez. She would make history as the Academy’s first trans nominee. Gascón also made the cut at the key precursors and shared a Cannes victory for Best Actress with her costars. Some prognosticators have started wondering whether she’s a guaranteed nominee. While she’s maybe not a total certainty like our previous actresses, I’d say it’s really close. After all, Emilia Pérez might get the most nominations of any picture this time around. I don’t see that occurring without Emilia Pérez being in contention.

And then… it gets complicated. Before we move to the several performers jockeying for two spots, let’s pour one out for these actresses whose campaigns never got off the ground. In some cases, the films underperformed significantly with critics and audiences. In others, their studios didn’t mount an offensive drive for their inclusion. Some examples are Florence Pugh (We Live in Time), Jodie Comer (The Bikeriders), Ryan Destiny (The Fire Inside), Daisy Ridley (Young Woman and the Sea), Regina King (Shirley), Lily-Rose Depp (Nosferatu), and Marisa Abela (Back to Black). Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) and June Squibb (Thelma) received a little more attention. However, they failed to show up in any significant other awards lists.

After that lengthy group, there’s a next level. These are actresses who may have shown up in some precursors or long lists, but aren’t expected to materialize in the Oscar quintet. Their chances aren’t completely out of reach like those in the previous paragraph. Yet it’s close. I would put Julianne Moore’s The Room Next Door costar Tilda Swinton in this class. Same with Zendaya (Challengers) and Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun).

This leaves us with eight performances vying for two spots: Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), and Kate Winslet (Lee). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?

Amy Adams has the narrative of being long overdue for an Oscar. Despite six nominations, she’s yet to hear her name called. On paper, this seemed like a strong possibility but so-so reviews for Nightbitch have not helped. Despite a Globe nod and being in the BAFTA long list, I have her 8th of these 8 possibilities.

I might be more inclined to put Anderson in my five if it weren’t for Demi Moore’s comeback narrative. The Baywatch starlet is getting career best notices for this indie drama even if the film itself is drawing more mixed reactions. Her Globe nomination in Actress (Drama) wasn’t a huge surprise. The SAG nod this week was and it does increase her viability. I have her 5th of these 8 possibilities.

Cynthia Erivo is starring in one of the year’s largest blockbusters with Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTA long list preceding a potential Oscar nod. If she were to win, Erivo would achieve EGOT status as she already has an Emmy, Grammy, and Tony on her resume. The only question mark is whether the amount of performers could squeeze her out. I doubt it. Erivo is ranked 1st of these 8 possibilities.

Marianne Jean-Baptiste is receiving plenty of critics prizes for her role in Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths. Critics Choice and the BAFTA long list are in her corner though she notably missed SAG and the Globes. Leigh has a history of getting his actors nominated. Seeing her in the eventual quintet would not surprise, but she’s 4th of my 8 possibilities at press time.

Angelina Jolie’s inclusion for Pablo Larrain’s Maria seemed assured at one point after the picture premiered in Venice. In hindsight, the troubling signs could have been evident immediately. She did not take Best Actress at that festival. Since then, she’s missed SAG and the BAFTA long list while competing for the Globe and being nominated for Critics Choice. Her most notable blow came at the Globes. She was favored to win Best Actress in a Drama but fell short to Fernanda Torres. I still think she could get in though I have her just on the outside looking in and 3rd of my 8 possibilities.

For her performance in Babygirl, Nicole Kidman did win Best Actress at Venice and Globe and BAFTA long list spots followed. The recent snubs at Critics Choice and SAG are hard to ignore. She’s 6th among these 8 possibilities.

Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here had no major other precursors to her credit besides the Globe. No BAFTA long list. No Critics Choice. And no SAG attention this week. That win at the Globes, though, looms large and it occurred just as Academy voting was underway. That’s why she’s 2nd of these 8 possibilities.

Finally, Kate Winslet as Lee showed up at the Globes and BAFTA long list. Reviews for the project itself aren’t overly impressive. Winslet could get in because, well, she’s Kate Winslet. Nevertheless she’s 7th of these 8 possibilities.

Whew. OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Actress for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a dive into Supporting Actor up next!

    June 28-30 Box Office Predictions

    Horror prequel A Quiet Place: Day One will attempt to make enough noise to knock Inside Out 2 from its third week atop the charts, but that could be a tall order. We also have Kevin Costner’s epic Western Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 and the semi-wide expansion of the Yorgos Lanthimos anthology Kinds of Kindness out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio right here:

    A Quiet Place: Day One Box Office Prediction
    Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 Box Office Prediction
    Kinds of Kindness Box Office Prediction

    My mid 40s projection for Quiet would be right in line with expectations and a tad under predecessor A Quiet Place Part II from 2021. That should put it firmly in second.

    That’s because animated box office behemoth Inside Out 2 might ease around 40% for a third weekend in first after its record breaking performance during its second frame (more on that below).

    Horizon is a legit question mark. Some estimates have it as low as $10 million and that would likely put it in fourth behind the fourth outing of Bad Boys: Ride or Die. Despite lackluster reviews and a three-hour runtime, I think it might manage low teens for third if enough Yellowstone viewers turn up.

    The Bikeriders, with significant competition for adult eyeballs, should fall around 50% to fifth after a so-so start. As for Kinds of Kindness (which just scored the biggest PTA of 2024 on five screens), it is expanding to approximately 500 venues Friday and a gross just above $3 million might be enough for sixth.

    Here’s how I have it shaking out:

    1. Inside Out 2

    Predicted Gross: $61.5 million

    2. A Quiet Place: Day One

    Predicted Gross: $46.3 million

    3. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1

    Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

    4. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

    Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

    5. The Bikeriders

    Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

    6. Kinds of Kindness

    Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

    Box Office Results (June 21-23)

    Disney/Pixar broke its own record (previously held by Incredibles 2) with the second highest animated weekend in history at $101.2 million. That bests my $93.6 million projection as the mighty sequel is up to $356 million in just ten days. A billion plus worldwide haul seems to be in the making. This is also vying for title of summer 2024’s heftiest domestic grosser with Deadpool & Wolverine seemingly the only challenger.

    Bad Boys: Ride or Die held in second at $18.8 million, a bit shy of my $21.3 million take. The three-week gross is $147 million.

    The Bikeriders couldn’t quite reach double digits in third with $9.6 million compared to my $10.5 million forecast. With an unimpressive B Cinemascore, this should stall out in subsequent weekends.

    Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was fourth with $3.8 million (I said $4.1 million) for a seven-week tally of $164 million.

    The Garfield Movie closely followed in fifth with $3.7 million and I incorrectly had it outside the high five. It has made $85 million after five weeks.

    IF was sixth with $2.7 million as the family friendly original hit $106 million after six weeks.

    I was a little too kind to Russell Crowe’s The Exorcism. His second feature with this subject matter in a year’s time (after The Pope’s Exorcist) was underwater in seventh with $2.4 million. I predicted $3.2 million.

    Finally, I didn’t do an estimate for the critically acclaimed comedy Thelma with June Squibb. It was eighth with $2.3 million which is pretty decent considering it’s on less than 1300 screens.

    And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

    June 21-23 Box Office Predictions

    **Blogger’s Update (06/20): We have yet to even see a theater count for The Exorcism so I’m downgrading my estimate from $6.2 million to $3.2 million

    The Bikeriders and The Exorcism enter a marketplace in which Inside Out 2 greatly exceeded expectations last weekend. The summer box office is finally looking up, but the two new entries could struggle for exposure. My detailed prediction posts on them can be accessed here:

    The Bikeriders Box Office Prediction
    The Exorcism Box Office Prediction

    There’s no doubt that Inside Out 2 will be perched in 1st for a second weekend. A high 30s to low 40s decline would put it in the low to mid 90s. A sequel in its third frame – Bad Boys: Ride or Die – should remain in the runner-up slot with a mid 30s to 40% ease.

    Now we get to the newbies. With decent reviews and the star power of Austin Butler, Tom Hardy, and Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders could still sputter with a third place showing. I think the big question is whether it reaches double digits and I have it barely accomplishing that minor goal.

    As for The Exorcism, Russell Crowe’s second horror pic in as many years dealing with the subject matter probably won’t reach the $10 million that The Pope’s Exorcist did in April of 2023.

    The five spot may go to holdover Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes in its seventh week of release and here’s how I have the high five playing out:

    1. Inside Out 2

    Predicted Gross: $93.6 million

    2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

    Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

    3. The Bikeriders

    Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

    4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

    Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

    5. The Exorcism

    Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

    Box Office Results (June 14-16)

    Disney/Pixar were feeling all the happy emotions as Inside Out 2 blasted past forecasts for the 2nd best animated opening of all time. That would also be the 2nd largest Pixar haul behind record holder Incredibles 2. The sequel to the 2015 Oscar winning blockbuster posted $154.2 million, way beyond my $92.4 million call. It’s also the biggest 2024 premiere thus far.

    Bad Boys: Ride or Die only fell 40% after its huge start with $33.7 million, riding past my $29.8 million take. The fourth entry in the three-decade old franchise has amassed $113 million.

    Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes actually rose 2% to $5.5 million in third, dwarfing my $3.1 million projection as this sequel’s six-week tally is $158 million.

    The over performance of Inside Out 2 caused other family friendly titles to plummet. The Garfield Movie was fourth with $4.7 million (I said $6.1 million) for $78 million in four weeks. IF was fifth with $3.6 million (I said $4.9 million) for $101 million in five weeks.

    Finally, The Watchers was sixth in its sophomore frame with $3.5 million compared to my $2.9 million prediction. The two-week total is $13 million.

    And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

    The Bikeriders Box Office Prediction

    Focus Features is hoping audiences wanna take a ride with The Bikeriders on June 21st. The 1960s set crime drama comes is written and directed by Jeff Nichols with a cast including Jodie Comer, Austin Butler, Tom Hardy, Michael Shannon, Mike Faist, and Norman Reedus.

    The pic was first seen at Telluride nearly ten months ago and delayed from its original December release date due to the actors strike. It stands to reason that the studio wanted their leads out promoting the project which scored mostly positive reviews (84% on RT).

    That star power of Elvis and Venom may not be enough to give this a wide audience. I’m not convinced this will make its reported $40 million budget back with the eventual domestic gross. That might mean a low double digits start and I’m a bit skeptical it even reaches the teens.

    The Bikeriders opening weekend prediction: $10.5 million

    For my The Exorcism prediction, click here:

    The Exorcism Box Office Prediction

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: June 9th Edition

    My first Oscar predictions for the month of June shows that box office matters and the poor performance of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga causes it to fall out of my 25 BP hopefuls. Meanwhile the acclaimed Iranian drama The Seed of the Sacred Fig rises 12 sports to #10 in BP with His Three Daughters falling out. Fig’s maker Mohammad Rasoulof is in the directing quintet for the first time.

    The aforementioned Daughters is not just out in BP. Natasha Lyonne drops in Actress in favor of Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez while Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) replaces Carrie Coon in Supporting Actress.

    In Actor, it is Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) back in over Glen Powell (Hit Man). Yet the news isn’t all bad for that latter picture as I’m projecting the screenplay contests for the first time. Hit Man grabs a spot in Adapted Screenplay.

    A reminder – the placement of performers is uncertain at press time. One example is Saldaña and Karla Sofia Gascón for Pérez. They could easily be switched and contend in one another’s races. In fact, I had it the other way around until now. There’s also Saoirse Ronan. I have her as a double nominee for The Outrun in lead and Blitz in supporting. She could be campaigned for Best Actress in both.

    It will all shake out soon enough and here’s where I have nominations standing at the moment!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Anora (PR: 7) (+2)

    6. Queer (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. The End (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 22) (+12)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

    12. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (E)

    13. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-5)

    14. Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (+9)

    15. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-1)

    16. Maria (PR: 20) (+4)

    17. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (-2)

    18. A Real Pain (PR: 24) (+6)

    19. Hit Man (PR: 19) (-1)

    20. Dídi (PR: 17) (-3)

    21. Bird (PR: 19) (-2)

    22. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

    23. Here (PR: 21) (-2)

    24. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (-11)

    25. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

    Not Ranked:

    Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    Civil War

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 15) (+10)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (-4)

    9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)

    11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Pablo Larrain, Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters

    Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

    George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting

    5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (-3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 12) (+3)

    10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 10) (-5)

    Dropped Out:

    Zoe Saldaña, Emila Pérez – moved to supporting

    Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

    4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

    8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. George MacKay, The End (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 13) (+2)

    12. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Paul Bettany, The Collaboration

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead

    4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 11) (+5)

    7. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-2)

    12. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-4)

    13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez – moved to lead

    Robin Wright, Here

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (E)

    8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: 12) (+2)

    11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (-2)

    12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 11) (-3)

    15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: 15) (E)

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora

    2. Blitz

    3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig

    4. The End

    5. His Three Daughters

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Hard Truths

    7. Emilia Pérez

    8. A Real Pain

    9. The Apprentice

    10. Kinds of Kindness

    11. All We Imagine as Light

    12. Challengers

    13. Maria

    14. Dídi

    15. We Live in Time

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave

    2. Queer

    3. Sing Sing

    4. The Piano Lesson

    5. Hit Man

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dune: Part Two

    7. Nickel Boys

    8. Nightbitch

    9. Joker: Folie à Deux

    10. The Fire Inside

    11. Here

    12. The Actor

    13. The Collaboration

    14. Gladiator II

    15. Small Things like These

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: May 27, 2024

    The Cannes Film Festival is complete and it has vaulted some pictures into contention while essentially eliminating others. Those on the others list include Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 from Kevin Costner, and Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.

    On the other hand, Andrea Arnold’s Bird and Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice still have life, but certainly are not sure things. Same goes for Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos and Jacques Audiard’s Emila Pérez (I’m pretty high on its chances though).

    The film that did itself the most good is Sean Baker’s Anora which took the Palme d’Or over the long weekend. It now climbs into my Picture, Director, and Actress (Mikey Madison) fields.

    While the Iranian drama The Seed of the Sacred Fig by Mohammad Rasoulof is unlikely to be submitted for International Feature Film, there’s a chance it contends in BP and you’ll see it listed here for the first time as a possibility.

    Let’s get into all of it and you can anticipate the next update in a couple of weeks!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)

    6. The End (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

    12. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 18) (+5)

    14. Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. The Fire Inside (PR: 17) (+2)

    16. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (-1)

    17. Dìdi (PR: 14) (-3)

    18. Hit Man (PR: 19) (+1)

    19. Bird (PR: 13) (-6)

    20. Maria (PR: 22) (+2)

    21. Here (PR: 25) (+4)

    22. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)

    23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+1)

    24. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-4)

    25. Civil War (PR: 21) (-4)

    Dropped Out:

    Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2

    Gladiator II

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-2)

    14. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice

    Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2

    Andrea Arnold, Bird

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

    4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

    11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 9) (-4)

    14. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

    15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

    Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

    Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

    4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

    8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)

    9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

    11. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 15) (+3)

    13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (-5)

    Dropped Out:

    Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2

    Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Robin Wright, Here (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice

    Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (moved to Actress)

    Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (-2)

    4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 9) (-2)

    12. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

    Leigh Gill, Blitz

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: May 19th, 2024

    My latest round of Oscar predictions arrives at the midpoint of the Cannes Film Festival and the hoopla on the French Riviera has cleared up some lingering questions. Is Francis Ford Coppola’s decades in development sci-fi epic Megalopolis a contender? That answer appears to be no. Same goes for Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.

    It gets a lot more uncertain after that. Andrea Arnold’s Bird has its fans and I do think its BP chances are intact. Category placement issues abound. I thought Barry Keoghan would be lead for Bird, but reaction suggests he’s supporting.

    Then there’s Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos. The WOM for it suggests it definitely faces longer odds for Academy inclusion that his two predecessors The Favourite and Poor Things. That said, I wouldn’t totally discount it. I could see it generating a lone Original Screenplay nod. Right now I’m putting Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons in lead as possibilities and hopefully we’ll know soon if they’re being campaigned there or in supporting.

    Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga also is behind its predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road in terms of possibilities. While it should land a few tech nods, BP and Director chances are feasible yet less than what happened nine years ago.

    I would suggest that Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez has done itself the most good at Cannes. The crowd-pleasing reaction has me elevating it into the top 10 in BP with Zoe Saldaña in Actress and Karla Sofia Gascón in Supporting Actress. In previous posts, I had those two performers in each other’s categories. It’s still not locked as to where they will be, but this is my best guess based on the information available.

    In news not related to Cannes, it was announced that The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat will be a Hulu exclusive premiere. That would seem to take it out of contention at the Oscars.

    I will likely have another update posted next weekend since more Cannes titles will be unveiled including Horizon: An American Saga and The Apprentice. Stay tuned, folks!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)

    6. The End (PR: 6) (E)

    7. His Three Daughters (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 15) (+6)

    10. The Apprentice (PR: 13) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Bird (PR: 9) (-4)

    14. Dídi (PR: 23) (+9)

    15. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (-1)

    16. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 12) (-4)

    17. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (-10)

    18. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (-10)

    19. Hit Man (PR: 20) (+1)

    20. A Real Pain (PR: 21) (+1)

    21. Civil War (PR: 19) (-2)

    22. Maria (PR: 17) (-5)

    23. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

    24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 18) (-6)

    25. Here (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Megalopolis

    The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

    Hard Truths

    SNL 1975

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 15) (+9)

    7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice (PR: 14) (+4)

    11. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 5) (-9)

    15. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (-4)

    Dropped Out:

    Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

    Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside

    Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked, moved from Supporting)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 4) (-4)

    9. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (moved to Supporting)

    Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR 3) (E)

    4. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+4)

    5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

    11. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 15) (+4)

    12. Kinglsey Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 12) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Barry Keoghan, Bird (moved to Supportong)

    Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)

    3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 12) (+5)

    8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 3) (-5)

    9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 7) (-3)

    11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Robin Wright, Here (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness

    Erin Kellyman, Blitz

    Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness

    Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (moved to lead)

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+4)

    5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3 (-4)

    8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 11) (+3)

    9. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: Not Ranked, moved from lead)

    10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Leigh Gill, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Franz Rogowski, Bird

    Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: May 5, 2024

    Cinco de Mayo brings the second ranked post for the 97th Academy Awards in the six major races- Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Obviously we’re early in the process and, at the moment, a lot of speculation is simply on where certain performers will be placed (lead or supporting). Some examples: His Three Daughters from director Azazel Jacobs screened to impressive reviews at Toronto last fall and has been given a plum Netflix streaming start for this autumn. The title characters are played by Carrie Coon, Natasha Lyonne, and Elizabeth Olsen. The studio has a decision to make on which categories the trio are campaigned in. I am currently guesstimating that Lyonne will be lead with the other two in supporting. It is indeed a guesstimate. They could all go supporting. Coon could be an Actress play with the others in supporting. Obviously I’ll adjust as the weeks and months move along as updates are provided.

    Then there’s Saoirse Ronan. The four-time nominee and no time winner has two 2024 shots. Her work in The Outrun premiered at Sundance, indicating a definite possibility for a lead Actress nod. She is also in Steve McQueen’s Blitz which sure looks like an awards hopeful on paper. Whether she’s lead or supporting in it remains to be seen. Apple TV might have better luck putting her in Supporting Actress and that’s where I have her. However, we don’t know if that’s workable at press time.

    Beyond the thespians, we have head scratchers like Kevin Costner’s western epic Horizon: An American Saga. Make that Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 (slated for late June) and Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (arriving mid-August). Could the Dances with Wolves maker have another chance at Oscar glory? If so, which chapter books its spot on the BP list? I’m speculating that the better chance lies with the second one.

    Horizon will first be seen at Cannes and that fest kicks off May 14th. Some other pictures showing there include Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, The Apprentice, Bird, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Emilia Perez, and Anora. When I publish my next update in a couple of weeks, some of them will have reviews and buzz.

    Here’s how I have it shaking out now!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

    6. The End (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Bird (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 19) (+7)

    13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (E)

    15. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (+3)

    16. Megalopolis (PR: 17) (+1)

    17. Maria (PR: 16) (-1)

    18. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (+4)

    19. Civil War (PR: 15) (-4)

    20. Hit Man (PR: Not Ranked)

    21. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-1)

    22. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 13) (-9)

    23. Dídi (PR: 10) (-13)

    24. Hard Truths (PR: 23) (-1)

    25. SNL 1975 (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Here

    Wicked

    Gladiator II

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-3)

    11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis (PR: 14) (+1)

    14. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Sean Wang, Dídi

    Alex Garland, Civil War

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 10) (+8)

    3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

    4. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 13) (+3)

    11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 8) (-6)

    15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting)

    Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (E)

    9. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. George MacKay, The End (PR: 7) (-3)

    11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 13) (+2)

    12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two

    Adam Driver, Megalopolis

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress

    3. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 1) (-2)

    4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

    5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 3) (-7)

    11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 6) (-5)

    12. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (-5)

    13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Perez (PR: 11) (-4)

    Dropped Out:

    Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (moved to lead Actress)

    Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

    Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

    Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Franz Rogowski, Bird (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 11) (+2)

    10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (-2)

    12. Leigh Gill, Blitz (PR: 5) (-7)

    13. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis

    Paul Raci, Sing Sing

    Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

    Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: April 21, 2024

    A month and change after the 96th Academy Awards aired, it is time for my first ranked predictions for the next ceremony coming your way March 2, 2025.

    Yes, it’s early. However, I posted my inaugural numbered forecasts for Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies around the same juncture a year ago. The results named the eventual winners in all six races. In BP, four of the 10 contenders were predicted (including Oppenheimer) while three others were listed in Other Possibilities. For Director, I correctly called 2 of the 5 filmmakers (including Christopher Nolan) with two others in Other Possibilities. Best Actress yielded just one, but it was statue recipient Emma Stone for Poor Things. Two others were listed in Other Possibilities. Best Actor also saw one with three of the others in Other Possibilities (including Oppenheimer himself, Cillian Murphy). For Supporting Actress, it was 1 and then 2 in Other Possibilities (including victor Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers). Finally, in Supporting Actor, it was one in the projected quintet with three in Other Possibilities and that includes Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer.

    Let’s get those caveats out of the way. Some of the performers predicted in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. That happened in 2023 when I had Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) at #1 in Supporting Actress and then she ended up being campaigned for and was nominated in Best Actress. Some of the movies will get pushed back to 2025. There’s a few from my first projections in April 2023 that were supposed to come out that year. You’ll find them listed below and that list includes heavy hitters like Dune: Part Two, Blitz, Challengers, The Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Nightbitch, and The Fire Inside to name a few.

    You can expect these predictions to be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post starting in late summer/early fall when festival season goes into overdrive. A smattering of these titles will have reviews up when they premiere at Cannes less than a month from now. They include Bird, Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Apprentice, Emilia Perez, and Horizon: An American Saga.

    With all that out of the way – here are those first ranked takes!

    BEST PICTURE

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz

    2. Dune: Part Two

    3. Conclave

    4. Sing Sing

    5. The End

    6. Queer

    7. The Fire Inside

    8. Bird

    9. Kinds of Kindness

    10. Dídi

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Joker: Folie à Deux

    12. The Apprentice

    13. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

    14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    15. Civil War

    16. Maria

    17. Megalopolis

    18. The Piano Lesson

    19. Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2

    20. A Real Pain

    21. Here

    22. The Nickel Boys

    23. Hard Truths

    24. Wicked

    25. Gladiator II

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Steve McQueen, Blitz

    2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

    3. Edward Berger, Conclave

    4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End

    5. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer

    7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

    8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

    9. Andrea Arnold, Bird

    10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux

    11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    12. Sean Wang, Dídi

    13. Alex Garland, Civil War

    14. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis

    15. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Angelina Jolie, Maria

    2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

    3. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside

    4. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux

    5. Tilda Swinton, The End

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Amy Adams, Nightbitch

    7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

    8. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

    9. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez

    10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

    11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

    12. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

    13. Zendaya, Challengers

    14. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

    15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

    2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

    3. Barry Keoghan, Bird

    4. Daniel Craig, Queer

    5. André Holland, The Actor

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux

    7. George MacKay, The End

    8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

    9. Glen Powell, Hit Man

    10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

    11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two

    12. Adam Driver, Megalopolis

    13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

    14. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration

    15. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Joan Chen, Dídi

    2. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

    3. Erin Kellyman, Blitz

    4. Lesley Manville, Queer

    5. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

    7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice

    8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys

    9. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

    10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

    11. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

    12. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

    13. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

    14. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters

    15. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave

    2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

    3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

    4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

    5. Leigh Gill, Blitz

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

    7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

    8. Drew Starkey, Queer

    9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz

    10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man

    11. John Lithgow, Conclave

    12. Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis

    13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing

    14. Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

    15. Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez

    As always, keep an eye on the blog for future updates and Oscar Prediction posts focusing in various pictures as they screen!