Next weekend comes the first Christmas themed title as Almost Christmas presents itself in theaters. The pic comes from director David E. Talbert, maker of 2008’s First Sunday and 2013’s Baggage Claim. The comedic drama focuses on a dysfunctional holiday family gathering with a cast that includes Kimberly Elise, Mo’Nique, Gabrielle Union, Danny Glover, Jessie Usher, Danny Glover, Nicole Ari Parker, Omar Epps, John Michael Higgins, and Romany Malco.
Christmas should benefit from both its release date and the fact that it could attract a sizable African American audience. One decent comp would be 2007’s This Christmas, which debuted to $17.9 million. A more unlikely comp would be 2013’s The Best Man Holiday, which shocked the industry with an opening of over $30M.
I’ll say Almost Christmas manages a merry start in the high teens range.
Almost Christmas opening weekend prediction: $18.3 million
It’s going to be a busy Turkey Day weekend at the box office as six new titles find their way into the multiplex. Disney’s Frozen, the action pic Homefront with Jason Statham and James Franco, and the musical ensemble Black Nativity open wide while The Book Thief expands to around 1000 theaters and Spike Lee’s Oldboy and the Judi Dench drama Philomena play to around 500 screens. Whew.
You can my individual prediction posts on each new picture here:
Typically, during Thanksgiving the leftovers have very small drops because audiences like to catch up during the holidays. The one exception should be The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. In its second weekend, the pic should easily lose more than half the crowd of its debut weekend. The last two Twilight flicks opened the same pre-Thanksgiving weekend and saw second week falls in the 70% range. I don’t have Games falling quite that far.
Since there are so many newbies this weekend, I’ll change my normal Top Five predictions to Top Ten. Here they are:
1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Predicted Gross: $56.8 million (representing a drop of 64%)
2. Frozen
Predicted Gross: $48.3 million ($69.1 million for five-day opening)
3. Black Nativity
Predicted Gross: $19.3 million ($26.8 million for five-day opening)
4. Thor: The Dark World
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 32%)
5. Homefront
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million ($12.8 million for five-day opening)
6. The Best Man Holiday
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)
7. The Book Thief
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million ($7.2 million for five-day opening)
8. Delivery Man
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million (representing a drop of 30%)
9. Free Birds
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)
10. Philomena
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million ($5.1 million for five-day opening)
This means I am predicting Oldboy opens outside of the top ten with a $2.4 million Friday-to-Sunday opening tally and $3.5 million from Wednesday-to-Sunday.
I’ll have final results Sunday on the blog… have Turkey Day friends!
The weekend before Thanksgiving brings us one of the year’s most anticipated titles, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, which is primed for an explosive debut. The sequel will look to build upon the $152 million that its predecessor opened at in March 2012. My prediction puts it at #4 for all-time domestic openings. You can read my detailed post here:
I have #2 and #3 as other sequels. Thor: The Dark World is likely to lose over half its audience in the third weekend. The Best Man Holiday debuted well beyond expectations with $30 million. Conventional wisdom tells me it’s likely to lose over 50% in weekend #2, but considering its rare A+ Cinemascore grade, it may not fall that far. The two should post very close results fighting for the runner-up spot.
The weekend’s loser may well be Vince Vaughn’s Delivery Man, which is garnering mixed reviews and has been running a tepid marketing campaign. I expect a disappointing opening and you can read my detailed post on it here:
Rounding out the top five should be either holdovers Last Vegas or Free Birds, but I’ll give the edge to Vegas in weekend #4. And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Predicted Gross: $166.7 million
2. Thor: The Dark World
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)
3. The Best Man Holiday
Predicted Gross: $15.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)
4. Delivery Man
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
5. Last Vegas
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 26%)
Check the blog’s Facebook page on Saturday for early results with final results on the blog Sunday!
Let’s call this upcoming weekend at the box office “the one between the openings of the Thor and Hunger Games sequels” as only one picture debuts. It’s another sequel – The Best Man Holiday, the follow-up to 1999’s The Best Man. I think it will be assured the #2 spot. You can read my prediction post on it here:
Thor: The Dark World should easily remain #1 before The Hunger Games: Catching Fire opens the following weekend. I would expect the Marvel megahit to lose over half its business in its sophomore frame. As for other holdovers, I see Free Birds having the smallest drop and remaining in the three spot while comedies Last Vegas and Bad Grandpa fill out the rest of the top five.
And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five box office:
1. Thor: The Dark World
Predicted Gross: $39.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)
2. The Best Man Holiday
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
3. Free Birds
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 19%)
4. Last Vegas
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 31%)
5. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 42%)
I’ll have an update on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results Sunday!
This coming weekend was supposed to see the debut of Martin Scorsese’s eagerly awaited The Wolf of Wall Street, but the title ended up getting pushed back to Christmas Day to allow the director more time to tinker. It surely would have opened in the number two spot.
Therefore, we have only one new picture opening and it’s The Best Man Holiday, a sequel to 1999’s The Best Man. The original pic grossed a solid $34 million fourteen years ago (it only had a $9M budget). Starring Taye Diggs, Nia Long, Terrence Howard, Morris Chestnut, Regina Hall, and Sanaa Lathan, the holiday themed comedy/drama will attempt to bring in a large contingent of African-American audiences to the multiplex.
Its prospects look pretty decent. The stars of the film are certainly more well-known today than they were several years ago and there’s really no direct competition for its demographic. If something like Baggage Claim can make $9 million in its debut, The Best Man Holiday should easily surpass that. I could envision this getting as high as low 20s, as several of Tyler Perry’s recent productions have. It could also be somewhere in the mid-teens. With that range stated, I’ll go in the middle of it and say it earns high teens for a solid second place debut after weekend #2 for Thor.
The Best Man Holiday opening weekend prediction: $18.7 million
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