Tag: The Beguiled

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 28th Edition

Back at it with my weekly Oscar predictions on the eight major categories and how those races are shaping up! In the next week, two big pieces of the Academy puzzle will come into focus. Last Flag Flying will screen this evening at the New York Film Festival and Blade Runner 2049 will have its reviews out as it opens a week from tomorrow (early word-of-mouth is strong). I’m also, for the first time, including Clint Eastwood’s The 15:17 to Paris, which hasn’t been confirmed for release by the end of the year (though it’s expected to be).

As for this week, we’ve seen some significant changes in the rankings at the top for both Actress and Supporting Actress. Again, I’ll note that just because I’m ranking something first doesn’t mean I think it wins. This is strictly guesstimates on chances of being nominated.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)

6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Mudbound (PR: 5)

8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

9. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

10. Phantom Thread (PR: 11)

11. Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)

12. The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)

13. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 14)

14. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 15)

15. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)

16. Get Out (PR: 24)

17. All the Money in the World (PR: 17)

18. Detroit (PR: 16)

19. Downsizing (PR: 13)

20. The Big Sick (PR: 21)

21. Lady Bird (PR: 25)

22. I, Tonya (PR: 20)

23. The Florida Project (PR: 19)

24. Molly’s Game (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Wonderstruck (PR: 22)

Dropped Out:

Coco

mother!

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)

8. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)

9. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)

10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

11. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)

12. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 9)

13. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 15)

15. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World

Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 3)

4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

7. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

8. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 7)

9. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 8)

10. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)

11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 10)

12. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 13)

15. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (reportedly competing in Supporting Actor)

Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House

Matt Damon, Downsizing

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

3. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 1)

4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)

7. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

8. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 10)

9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

10. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 9)

11. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 11)

12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 12)

13. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 13)

15. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Carey Mulligan, Mudbound

Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

5. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 6)

7. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 8)

8. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

10. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

11. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

12. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 12)

13. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 11)

14. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 15)

15. Dustin Hoffman, The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound

Christoph Waltz, Downsizing

Best Supporting Actress

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 1)

3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 6)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)

7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 11)

8. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

9. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 8)

11. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)

12. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: 14)

15. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

Julianne Moore, Suburbicon

Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (moved to Lead Actress)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Post (PR: 1)

2. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 2)

3. Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

5. Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

7. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. The Beguiled (PR: 7)

10. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)

11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 12)

12. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)

13. Stronger (PR: 9)

14. Wonder (PR: 13)

15. Thank You for Your Service (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Logan

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 2)

4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. The Big Sick (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Get Out (PR: 7)

7. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)

8. Dunkirk (PR: 8)

9. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)

10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)

11. Downsizing (PR: 9)

12. The Florida Project (PR: 11)

13. Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 14)

15. The Greatest Showman (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Coco

And there you have it! Updates will be on the way next Thursday…

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 22nd Edition

My weekly Thursday Oscar predictions are coming to you on a Friday this week (sorry for the delay) as the festival season shed some light on potential nominees. That said, there’s still lots of uncertainty with plenty left to be seen.

Per usual, I’m listing my predicted nominees in the eight major categories with 25 potentials for Best Picture and 15 in the others. Once again, note that just because I rank something first doesn’t mean I think it will win. These rankings are more geared toward what I think will definitely be nominated at this juncture. For instance, even though Dunkirk is placed 1st, I wouldn’t say it’s the front runner to take home Best Picture at all.

Let’s get to it and I’ll get the weekly post back to Thursdays next week!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. Mudbound (PR: 5)

6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)

7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 17)

8. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)

9. Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

11. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

12. Wonder Wheel (PR: 13)

13. Downsizing (PR: 11)

14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 16)

15. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 12)

16. Detroit (PR: 14)

17. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

18. Coco (PR: 19)

19. The Florida Project (PR: 23)

20. I, Tonya (PR: 24)

21. The Big Sick (PR: Not Ranked)

22. Wonderstruck (PR: 18)

23. mother! (PR: 15)

24. Get Out (PR: 20)

25. Lady Bird (PR: 21)

Dropped Out:

Wind River

Wonder Woman

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)

9. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)

10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

11. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

12. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)

13. Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)

15. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Alexander Payne, Downsizing

Darren Aronofsky, mother!

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 4)

4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)

5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 10)

7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 7)

8. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 9)

9. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 11)

11. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 12)

12. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: 13)

13. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

14. Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House (PR: 15)

15. Matt Damon, Downsizing (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (picture reportedly moved to 2018)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKrIXxdOF5M

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 1)

2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 11)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)

11. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 13)

12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 10)

13. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 12)

14. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound (PR: 15)

15. Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night (PR: 14)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 6)

7. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

8. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 7)

9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

10. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 12)

12. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 13)

13. Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

James Franco, The Disaster Artist

Jamie Bell, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

Harrison Ford, Blade Runner 2049

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 1)

2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 3)

3. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 2)

5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 9)

7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 6)

9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 13)

10. Julianne Moore, Suburbicon (PR: 10)

11. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: 14)

12. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 11)

13. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother! (PR: 8)

14. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 12)

Dropped Out:

Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Post (PR: 1)

2. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

3. Mudbound (PR: 2)

4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

7. The Beguiled (PR: 9)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. Stronger (PR: 7)

10. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 12)

12. The Disaster Artist (PR: 11)

13. Wonder (PR: 13)

14. Logan (PR: 15)

15. Thank You for Your Service (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

You Were Never Really Here (reportedly moved to 2018)

My Cousin Rachel

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

2. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 5)

5. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Big Sick (PR: 12)

7. Get Out (PR: 6)

8. Dunkirk (PR: 8)

9. Downsizing (PR: 9)

10. Lady Bird (PR: 11)

11. The Florida Project (PR: 15)

12. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)

13. Coco (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 10)

15. The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

mother!

And there you have it, folks! I’ll be back next week with my latest update…

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 14th Edition

We’ve arrived at my second round of weekly Oscar predictions that will come your way every Thursday on the blog! Since last week, a number of titles have screened at the Toronto Film Festival, in addition to the Venice and Telluride fests that preceded it.

As I did last week, I will list my current predicted nominees in the eight biggest races with a total of 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 in the others. Beginning today, you’ll be able to see the fluctuation in rankings from last week to the current one and see what and who has joined and dropped out. Once again, rankings reflect who and what I think will be nominated and not necessarily win.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

5. Mudbound (PR: 4)

6. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)

7. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Phantom Thread (PR: 11)

11. Downsizing (PR: 8)

12. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 16)

13. Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)

14. Detroit (PR: 14)

15. mother! (PR: 13)

16. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)

17. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 18)

18. Wonderstruck (PR: 17)

19. Coco (PR: 19)

20. Get Out (PR: 20)

21. Lady Bird (PR: 22)

22. Wind River (PR: 21)

23. The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

24. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Wonder Woman (PR: 23)

Dropped Out:

Molly’s Game

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

7. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

10. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)

11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)

12. Alexander Payne, Downsizing (PR: 9)

13. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)

14. Darren Aronofsky, mother! (PR: 13)

15. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)

4. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 4)

5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (PR: 5)

7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 15)

8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)

9. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 7)

10. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)

11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 12)

12. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)

13. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Matt Damon, Downsizing (PR: 10)

15. Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Renner, Wind River

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 1)

2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 3)

7. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)

10. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 7)

11. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 8)

12. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 13)

13. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 12)

14. Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night (PR: 15)

15. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

Isabelle Huppert, Happy End

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 2)

5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 8)

7. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 5)

8. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)

11. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 12)

13. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 14)

14. Jamie Bell, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Harrison Ford, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Idris Elba, Molly’s Game

Woody Harrelson, The Glass Castle

Christoph Waltz, Downsizing

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 1)

2. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 2)

3. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 6)

7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 5)

8. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother! (PR: 7)

9. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 11)

10. Julianne Moore, Suburbicon (PR: 13)

11. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 14)

12. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)

14. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman

Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Post (PR: 1)

2. Mudbound (PR: 2)

3. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Molly’s Game (PR: 5)

7. Stronger (PR: 12)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)

10. You Were Never Really Here (PR: 7)

11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)

12. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)

13. Wonder (PR: 13)

14. My Cousin Rachel (PR: 14)

15. Logan (PR: 15)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)

5. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Get Out (PR: 7)

7. Phantom Thread (PR: 8)

8. Dunkirk (PR: 9)

9. Downsizing (PR: 5)

10. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 15)

11. Lady Bird (PR: 11)

12. The Big Sick (PR: 10)

13. mother! (PR: 13)

14. The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)

15. The Florida Project (PR: 12)

And there you have it, folks! Expect more Oscar Watch posts to come your way and my next full predictions next Thursday…

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 7th Edition

As you may have noticed on the blog over the last few days, there’s been an influx of Oscar Watch posts up due to the Telluride and Venice Film Festivals shedding light on some contenders.

Today begins my weekly column covering the big six races (Picture, Director, the four acting categories, and both screenplay categories). It will be updated every Thursday up until nominations are announced next year (with a final predictions posts the Monday before they are revealed).

Here’s how it works: I’m listing my current predictions in each race, with 25 selections for Best Picture and 15 in the others. When we get a bit further down the road, the predictions will go to 15 Best Picture possibilities and 10 in the rest. I am indeed ranking them, but note that just because I rank something as #1, that doesn’t mean I think it will win. It just means I believe at this time that it has the current best shot at actually getting nominated. Beginning next week, you’ll see how the rankings change and alter from week to week… and change and alter they most certainly will.

So here goes with my first weekly Oscar predictions!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk

2. The Post

3. Darkest Hour

4. Mudbound

5. Call Me by Your Name

6. Battle of the Sexes

7. The Shape of Water

8. Downsizing

9. The Greatest Showman

Other Possibilities:

10. Last Flag Flying

11. Phantom Thread

12. Wonder Wheel

13. mother!

14. Detroit

15. Blade Runner 2049

16. Goodbye Christopher Robin

17. Wonderstruck

18. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

19. Coco

20. Get Out

21. Wind River

22. Lady Bird

23. Wonder Woman

24. Molly’s Game

25. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post

3. Dee Rees, Mudbound

4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour

5. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name

Other Possibilities:

6. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

7. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes

8. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049

9. Alexander Payne, Downsizing

10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit

12. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying

13. Darren Aronofsky, mother!

14. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman

15. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman

4. Tom Hanks, The Post

5. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes

7. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin

8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger

9. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

10. Matt Damon, Downsizing

11. Andrew Garfield, Breathe

12. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker

13. Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House

14. Jeremy Renner, Wind River

15. Denzel Washington, Roman Israel Esq.

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

2. Meryl Streep, The Post

3. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game

4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel

5. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Other Possibilities:

6. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

7. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

8. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman

9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

10. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul

11. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound

12. Diane Kruger, In the Fade

13. Jennifer Lawrence, mother!

14. Isabelle Huppert, Happy End

15. Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night 

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

2. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name

4. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name

7. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water

8. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound

9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying

10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist

11. Idris Elba, Molly’s Game

12. Patrick Stewart, Logan

13. Woody Harrelson, The Glass Castle

14. Will Poulter, Detroit

15. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate

2. Hong Chau, Downsizing

3. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour

4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

5. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin

7. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

8. Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman

9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled

10. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck

11. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

12. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

13. Julianne Moore, Suburbicon

14. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

15. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Post

2. Mudbound

3. Call Me by Your Name

4. Last Flag Flying

5. Molly’s Game

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck

7. You Were Never Really Here

8. Victoria and Abdul

9. The Beguiled

10. The Disaster Artist

11. Blade Runner 2049

12. Stronger

13. Wonder

14. My Cousin Rachel

15. Logan

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour

2. Battle of the Sexes

3. The Shape of Water

4. Wonder Wheel

5. Downsizing

Other Possibilities:

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

7. Get Out

8. Phantom Thread

9. Dunkirk

10. The Big Sick

11. Lady Bird

12. The Florida Project

13. mother!

14. The Greatest Showman

15. Goodbye Christopher Robin

And there you have it! My first ranked predictions for the Oscar race. Next Thursday, I’ll have the updated projections…

Todd’s Early 2017 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

And so it begins!

Fall season is upon us and that means my Oscar prediction posts will be ramping up on this here blog. I will be following the same formula as I did last year. Six “early” prediction posts on Picture, Director, and the four acting races. It’s my goal to have all of these posted by Monday, if not earlier.

From there, every Thursday I’ll bring you my weekly prediction posts all the way to the nominations next year. In both these initial posts covering the six categories and for the weekly posts starting next week, I’ll list my predicted nominees for Best Picture as well as 25 pictures total as possibilities. For the other races (the two Screenplay categories will be included with the weekly posts), I’ll list my five predicted nominees along with ten other ranked possibilities. From week to week, you’ll be able to track the up and down movement of my predictions, who and what have dropped out, and who and what have joined the mix.

We begin today with Best Supporting Actress and just like any category at this juncture (just as festival season is beginning), everything is up in the air. I would say Hong Chau’s work in Downsizing is pretty darn close to a sure thing with Melissa Leo’s role in Novitiate close as well (as long as her campaign doesn’t switch to Lead Actress).

As far as history with my previous year’s earliest predictions in Supporting Actress, 2014 and 2016 yielded two of the eventual five nominees while 2015 gave us three.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

TODD’S FIRST PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Hong Chau, Downsizing

Melissa Leo, Novitiate

Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour

Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman

Other Possibilities:

Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled

Carrie Fisher, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Samantha Isler, Molly’s Game

Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Tatiana Maslany, Stronger

Julianne Moore, Suburbicon

Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin

Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

And there you have it! I’ll have Supporting Actor up shortly…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xopkvg8Xyjw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXCTMGYUg9A

Box Office Predictions: July 7-9

There’s only one new major release this weekend hitting multiplexes, but it’s a big one in the form of Spider-Man: Homecoming. This is the third iteration of the beloved web slinger with Tom Holland inheriting the tights after his cameo in Captain America: Civil War. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/27/spider-man-homecoming-box-office-prediction/

Spidey should easily rule the charts this weekend and my prediction puts it a couple million above what the original accomplished 15 years ago.

As for holdovers, Despicable Me 3 had a somewhat disappointing debut (more on that below) and I look for it to lose nearly half its audience in the sophomore frame.

Baby Driver, on the other hand, was quite a breakout hit and word of mouth is strong. Its drop-off shouldn’t be as pronounced. Wonder Woman and Transformers look to round out the top five.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Spider-Man: Homecoming

Predicted Gross: $117.8 million

2. Despicable Me 3

Predicted Gross: $36.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)

3. Baby Driver

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. Wonder Woman

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. Transformers: The Last Knight

Predicted Gross: $7 million (representing a drop of 58%)

Box Office Results (June 30-July 2)

Illumination Entertainment’s Despicable Me 3 earned an estimated $72.4 million, which easily placed it first. However, this was easily $10 million below most of the lowest guesstimates. I projected a higher haul at $88.7M.

Edgar Wright’s critically acclaimed Baby Driver greatly exceeded expectations with a $20.5 million Friday to Sunday gross and a cool $29.5 million since its Wednesday opening. This blew away my respective predictions of $10.9M and $15.8M and proved that audiences are hungry for programming in the summer that isn’t a sequel or reboot.

Transformers: The Last Knight slipped to third with $16.8 million (in line with my $17.4M forecast) for a $102M total.

Wonder Woman was close behind in fourth with $15.7 million (I said $14.5M) to bring its massive earnings to $346M.

Cars 3 rounded out the top five with $9.6 million (I was higher at $12.1M) for a $120M overall gross.

The poorly reviewed Will Ferrell/Amy Poehler comedy The House was DOA in sixth place, earning only $8.7 million for its start (I said $13.8M).

Finally, Sofia Coppola’s The Beguiled expanded its theater count and took in $3.1 million compared to my $3.8M prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 30-July 2

It’s a busy weekend ahead as Despicable Me 3 looks to dominate the box office as the Will Ferrell comedy The House and critically acclaimed musical comedy crime thriller Baby Driver are out as well. There’s also a significant theater expansion for Sofia Coppola’s Civil War dramatic thriller The Beguiled. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all four here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/21/despicable-me-3-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/21/the-house-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/21/baby-driver-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/26/the-beguiled-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Illumination Entertainment’s Despicable threequel will not reach the heights of its spin-off predecessor Minions, which opened to $115M two summers ago. I’m looking at a return in the high 80s.

The House appears primed for a second place debut (barely) now that Transformers: The Last Knight didn’t fare so well (more on that below). I have a strange suspicion that it could under perform, but it’s got Will Ferrell and is the only real straight up comedy out there so I’m going late teens.

Baby Driver (which rolls out early on Wednesday) could absolutely be a wild card with some breakout potential. It’s got great buzz among the cinephile community, but I’m not sure how much that will translate to robust earnings out of the gate. I have it slated for sixth.

The Beguiled had a terrific limited debut this past weekend and its 550 screen count has me estimating a $3.8M gross.

Holdover action should see a precipitous drop for Transformers with Wonder Woman likely having a smaller decline than Cars 3 considering the animated competition. The Last Knight could even be in danger of slipping to fourth or fifth if holds for the other two aren’t quite as pronounced as my prognoses.

And with that, let’s do a top 6 estimates:

1. Despicable Me 3

Predicted Gross: $88.7 million

2. Transformers: The Last Knight

Predicted Gross: $17.4 million (representing a drop of 61%)

3. Wonder Woman

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million (representing a drop of 42%)

4. The House

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

5. Cars 3 

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)

6. Baby Driver

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (Friday to Sunday estimate), $15.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

Box Office Results (June 23-25)

Transformers: The Last Knight, the fifth in the decade long franchise, posted the worst stateside numbers for the series thus far. The critically panned pic earned $44.6 million over the traditional Friday to Sunday weekend and $68.4 million since its Wednesday debut. That’s well below my respective estimates of $57.8M and $81.5M. The previous Transformers low belonged to the 2007 original, which made $70 million for its start. Lucky for Paramount, these flicks still are doing solid business overseas.

There was a photo finish for second place as Wonder Woman made $24.9 million for the runner-up spot. That’s a bit below my $27.6M projection and the DC title has banked $318 million. Cars 3 went from first to third at $24 million and I forecasted more with $30M. The Pixar sequel stands at $98 million.

Shark tale 47 Meters Down held up stronger in its sophomore weekend than I figured. Its $7 million was good for fourth place and I incorrectly had it outside my projected top 5.

The Mummy was fifth with $6 million, under my $7.4M estimate for a $68 million so far. At this point, it looks assured the Tom Cruise pic will not reach $100M domestically and probably earn around $80M.

Finally, Tupac biopic All Eyez on Me had a massive drop in weekend #2, falling to sixth with $5.8 million (I was higher with $8.4M). That’s a 78% plummet and it’s earned $38 million total.

And that does it for now, folks! I’ll be back with next week’s predictions when Spider-Man: Homecoming swings into multiplexes.

The Beguiled Box Office Prediction

After a sizzling start in limited release over the weekend, Sofia Coppola’s The Beguiled expands its theater count Friday to approximately 550 screens. The Civil War era dramatic thriller has been garnering buzz ever since it premiered at the Cannes Film Festival and bestowed its Best Director award for Coppola. Colin Farrell, Nicole Kidman, Kirsten Dunst, and Elle Fanning headline the loose remake of the 1971 Clint Eastwood effort.

Reviews have mostly been strong and it stands at 73% on Rotten Tomatoes. There is some Oscar nod potential for its director, Kidman in Actress, and Kirsten Dunst for Supporting Actress. It played in just four theaters over the weekend and amassed an impressive $240,000 from those showings.

If The Beguiled can average close to $7,000 per screen in its expanded release, that would give it just under $4 million for the frame ahead.

The Beguiled opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million

For my Despicable Me 3 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/21/despicable-me-3-box-office-prediction/

For my The House prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/21/the-house-box-office-prediction/

For my Baby Driver prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/21/baby-driver-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: The Beguiled

Sofia Coppola burst onto the film scene with two highly regarded directorial efforts – 1999’s The Virgin Suicides and 2003’s Lost in Translation. The latter scored multiple Oscar nods, including Picture. Since then, Coppola has been off the awards radar screen for the most part (2006’s Marie Antoinette did win Best Costume Design).

Yet Coppola’s name came up over the weekend as her latest, The Beguiled, won her the Best Director prize at the Cannes Film Festival. The period piece drama/thriller is actually based on a novel that served as source material for a 1971 Clint Eastwood flick. Colin Farrell, Nicole Kidman, Kirsten Dunst, and Elle Fanning headline.

The Beguiled hits stateside screens on June 23rd and reaction from the French fest was positive. It stands at a decent 76% on Rotten Tomatoes. If it manages to over perform at the box office, perhaps there could some chatter for Coppola getting Academy attention, though it’s doubtful. One wild card could perhaps be Kidman, who seems to garnering some raves for her performance. And who knows? Perhaps a Costume Desjgn nod.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…