A month and change after the 97th ceremony, it is time for my first ranked predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies! I gave you my first numbered looks around the same juncture in 2023 and 2024. Two years ago, my April outlook yielded the winners being mentioned in Picture and Director (Oppenheimer and Christopher Nolan), Actress (Emma Stone for Poor Things), Actor (Oppenheimer‘s Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer). Last year… not so much.
Neither Anora, its maker (Sean Baker), or Anora herself (Mikey Madison) were named in April of 2024. The film would debut a month later at Cannes and vault itself into contention. The Brutalist also wasn’t on my radar so no mention of Adrien Brody in Actor. In the supporting fields, Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez was initially ranked 11th while Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) was listed in fourth. Hindsight is 20/20 for 2024, but I had Steve McQueen’s Blitz in first position in Best Picture exactly one year ago. It would go onto receive 0 nominations (pressure is on… After the Hunt).
Let’s get some key caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. Some of the pictures will get pushed back to 2026. Obviously there will be movies that turn out underwhelming and disappear from the awards conversation. Festival titles not listed today will rise up and contend.
You can expect these predictions will be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post (probably in the late summer or early fall when festival season goes into overdrive).
This inaugural preview comes as Ryan Coogler’s Sinners rules the box office with terrific reviews and word-of-mouth. At the moment, its Oscar future looks bright. Let’s see how that sentence reads several months down the line.
With all that out of the way – here are my first ranked takes!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. After the Hunt
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sentimental Value
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Sinners
6. The Rivals of Amziah King
7. Hamnet
8. Jay Kelly
9. The Life of Chuck
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another
12. Frankenstein
13. Bugonia
14. Deliver Me from Nowhere
15. The Smashing Machine
16. No Other Choice
17. The Ballad of a Small Player
18. Michael
19. Die, My Love
20. Highest 2 Lowest
21. Kiss of the Spider Woman
22. F1
23. Is This Thing On?
24. Ann Lee
25. Alpha
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt
2. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
4. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King
5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Other Possibilities:
6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
7. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
8. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly
12. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash
13. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me From Nowhere
14. Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck
15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
8. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda
11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
13. Jodie Foster, Vie privée
14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead
15. Olivia Colman, The Roses
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King
3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere
4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player
10. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
12. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus
13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael
14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
15. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King
4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Other Possibilities:
6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman
8. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
10. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus
11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
12. Emily Watson, Hamnet
13. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
14. Nia Long, Michael
15. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
4. Colman Domingo, Michael
5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good
10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
11. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest
12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
13. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love
14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?
15. Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme
You can expect another update shortly before the Cannes Film Festival kicks off where contenders like Sentimental Value, The Phoenician Scheme, Alpha, Eddington, Eleanor the Great, and Highest 2 Lowest will get their initial screenings.
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.
We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take on Supporting Actor and it can be found here:
We move to Supporting Actress. When I gave you my first picks in 2024, it yielded one eventual nominee and that’s Isabella Rossellini for Conclave. The eventual winner Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) as well as Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), were not identified at this early juncture.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actress. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar. Last year in April 2024, I had Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) slotted in Supporting Actress in Other Possibilities. She ended up going lead and nabbing a nod.
This premiere posts projects Erivo’s costar Ariana Grande will be a repeat nominee for Wicked: For Good. I’m also forecasting that Gwyneth Paltrow will return to the awards mix over a quarter century behind her Shakespeare in Love Actress victory.
Here’s the first snapshot with Best Actor up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTRESS AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS
Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King
Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Other Possibilities:
Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Mixing comedy and drama with the Biblical epic genre, The Book of Clarence opens January 12th over the long MLK frame. This is Jeymes Samuel’s sophomore directorial feature after 2021’s The Harder They Fall. LaKeith Stanfield leads a sprawling cast that includes Omar Sy, RJ Cyler, Anna Diop, David Oyelowo, Micheal Ward, Alfre Woodard, Teyana Taylor, Caleb McLaughlin, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, James McAvoy, and Benedict Cumberbatch.
The unique mashup was originally slated for September 2023 before a delay to January. It was first unveiled at the London Film Festival and holds an encouraging 94% RT score.
Despite the positive reviews, this is not your typical faith-based effort that might attract a significant religious crowd. The pushback to mid-January meant Clarence forewent an awards campaign that could’ve helped with awareness.
Over the Friday to Monday portion of the MLK weekend, this probably won’t hit $10 million. Mid single digits is more likely.
The Book of Clarence opening weekend prediction: $5.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Prior to its January 7th airing on CBS and Paramount+, nominations for the 81st Golden Globe Awards are out Monday, December 11th. After years of airing on NBC, the ceremony has found a new home after the controversies of the last few years involving the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.
That’s not the only change with the program. The categories we are used to have expanded from five to six nominees. And a new competition – Cinematic and Box Office Achievement – comes with eight contenders. We could safely coin this the “Barbenheimer” race unless Taylor Swift has something to say about that.
As always, there’s some controversy in the differentiation between Drama and Musical/Comedy placements. Netflix decided to campaign Todd Haynes’s May December in the latter even though Drama seems more appropriate. It could help it get more noms.
Here we go with my picks in each cinematic derby and I’ll give you an alternate with each.
Motion Picture (Drama)
Anatomy of a Fall
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: Saltburn
Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
American Fiction
Barbie
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
May December
Poor Things
Alternate: Air
Film Director
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Celine Song, Past Lives
Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Actress (Film Drama)
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Cailee Spaney, Priscilla
Alternate: Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One
Actor (Film Drama)
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Alternate: Zac Efron, The Iron Claw
Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Abby Ryder Fortson, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, You Hurt My Feelings
Natalie Portman, May December
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings
Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Gael Garcia Bernal, Cassandro
Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario
Timothee Chalamet, Wonka
Matt Damon, Air
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Alternate: Jamie Foxx, The Burial
Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
Julianne Moore, May December
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Alternate: Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Supporting Actor
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Alternate: Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Best Screenplay
American Fiction
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Alternate: May December
Cinematic and Box Office Achievment
Barbie
Elemental
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
John Wick: Chapter 4
Oppenheimer
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Alternate: The Little Mermaid
Motion Picture (Non-English Language)
Anatomy of a Fall
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Taste of Things
The Teachers’ Lounge
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: The Promised Land
Motion Picture (Animated)
The Boy and the Heron
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Elemental
Nimona
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Alternate: Wish
Original Score
The Boy and the Heron
Killers of the Flower Moon
Nyad
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: Elemental
Original Song
“Dance the Night” from Barbie
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
“Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple
“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot
“A World of Your Own” from Wonka
Alternate: “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
9 Nominations
Barbie
8 Nominations
Oppenheimer
7 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
6 Nominations
Poor Things
5 Nominations
The Color Purple, The Holdovers
4 Nominations
Maestro, May December
3 Nominations
American Fiction, Nyad, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2 Nominations
The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Wonka, The Zone of Interest
1 Nomination
Air, All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Cassandro, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Dream Scenario, Flamin’ Hot, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, John Wick: Chapter 4, Nimona, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rustin, Saltburn, Society of the Snow, The Taste of Things, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, The Teachers’ Lounge, You Hurt My Feelings
The highly unpredictable Gotham Awards released nominations today for their 2023 best. And, as expected, it was… unpredictable. There was added intrigue because the organization (dedicated to independent film) dropped their “low” budget requirements (traditionally $35 million or under) to qualify for inclusion. However, likely Oscar heavy hitters such as Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and The Color Purple took themselves out of contention.
That was not the case with Barbie, but it managed just one nomination in Outstanding Supporting Performance for Ryan Gosling. His costar from The Notebook Rachel McAdams will compete against him for her work in Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. Last year, the Gothams dropped their gender divisions with ten nominees in the lead and supporting derbies. We’ll cover those momentarily.
We start with Best Feature which showcases five pictures. From 2014-16, the Gotham recipient matched the Academy’s BP with Birdman, Spotlight, and Moonlight. The same occurred in 2020 with Nomadland and last year with Everything Everywhere All at Once. In other recent years, there’s been at least one nominee that got into BP at the big dance, including The Favourite, Marriage Story, and Tár. The only recent exception in the last decade was in 2021.
This year’s contenders are Passages, Past Lives, Reality, Showing Up, and A Thousand and One. Only Past Lives seems poised to make BP at the Oscars and even that isn’t a foregone conclusion.
Andrew Haigh’s romantic ghost tale All of Us Strangers actually led all nominees with four: Screenplay, International Feature, Outstanding Lead Performance (Andrew Scott), and Outstanding Supporting Performance (Claire Foy).
Last year, four of the ten leading performance nominees managed Oscar nominations. That includes the two winners (Brendan Fraser for The Whale and Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once) as well as Paul Mescal (Aftersun) and Cate Blanchett (Tár). Danielle Deadwyler (Till), who was snubbed by the Academy, won.
In addition to the aforementioned Scott for Strangers, the other nine up for lead in 2023 are Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin), Lily Gladstone (The Unknown Country), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Franz Rogowski (Passages), Babetida Sadjo (Our Father, the Devil), Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla), Teyana Taylor (A Thousand and One), Michelle Williams (Showing Up), and Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). I would argue that unlike Fraser, Yeoh, and Blanchett from the previous ceremony, none of the nominees here are guaranteed Oscar spots. Those with the best chance? Probably Lee, Wright, Spaeny, and Scott. Gladstone should get in, but it will be for Killers of the Flower Moon and not Country.
The supporting derby in 2022 yielded three eventual nominees including Supporting Actor victor Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) as well as Hong Chau (The Whale) and Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway). Quan also took the Gotham.
Our ten supporting players for this year’s ceremony are the aforementioned Foy (All of Us Strangers) and McAdams (Margaret) and Gosling (Barbie). Then there’s Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), Jamie Foxx (They Cloned Tyrone), Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), Charles Melton (May December), and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers). With the exception of Foxx, I would say all nine have solid to at least feasible shots at making the Oscar cut (especially Gosling and Randolph).
How will it all shake out? Don’t look for the Gothams to provide too much guidance. Yet today’s announcement at least gives us a peek at movies and performers who could keep or gain momentum. Movies like The Holdovers, Poor Things, Anatomy of a Fall, and more that came up short today? They shouldn’t worry too much.
The unconventional Biblical epic The Book of Clarence is the sophomore feature from Jeymes Samuel, who earned acclaim for his debut The Harder They Fall in 2021. It premiered at the London Film Festival prior to its planned January 12th opening stateside. LaKeith Stanfield, Omar Sy, Anna Diop, RJ Cyler, David Oyelowo, Micheal Ward, Alfre Woodard, Teyana Taylor, Caleb McLaughlin, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, James McAvoy, and Benedict Cumberbatch are included in the sprawling cast.
Originally slated for September of this year, I assumed the mid-January push included an awards qualifying run before the ball drops. That does not appear to be the case as Book should be in contention for the 97th Academy Awards.
Reviews are mostly praising its unique take on the genre with a current 91% Rotten Tomatoes score. However, while Stanfield and some of the tech work is being singled out, this is a long shot to be an Oscar player. So was the director’s first pic and it came up empty handed at the 94th ceremony. And frankly, the January release date indicates that Sony might not make a major push for it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My closer looks at six of the major Oscar categories turns to Best Actress. If you missed my posts covering the other three acting derbies, you can access them right here:
The Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals have made a couple of things clearer, as they usually do. While reviews for her were solid, I think Kate Winslet in Lee is now a long shot for inclusion in the final five. On the other hand, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor in Origin is more of a possibility than I would’ve originally thought. I do, however, think the film will need to make its mark elsewhere and I’m a little skeptical at the moment.
In Venice, the Best Actress prize went to Cailee Spaeny as Priscilla and that certainly helps her stock. I’m not prepared to put her into the final quintet. The soft frontrunner is probably Emma Stone in the rapturously received Poor Things. It could put her in line to take this race seven years after her victory in La La Land. She skyrockets to fifth to first.
Other strong hopefuls are Sandra Hüller for Anatomy of a Fall, Carey Mulligan in Maestro, Natalie Portman in May December, and Greta Lee for Past Lives. Annette Bening could find herself in the mix as Nyad. An “overdue for a win” narrative could give her statue, but I could also see her being left out completely.
Then there’s Margot Robbie who is, of course, headlining 2023’s largest hit with Barbie. Some might say there’s no way she gets left out. I would remind people about Tom Cruise’s non-nomination for Top Gun: Maverick. Yet she could absolutely end up making the cut.
I’ve included Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) in the quintet since I began predicting months ago. Her work is the only one mentioned here still unseen. She clings to the five spot for now.
As with the other acting races, I’m winnowing the field from 15 possibilities to 10 and here’s how I see it right now:
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (+4)
2. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 2) (-3)
4. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-1)
You could correctly call this Oscar Predictions post the calm before the festival storm as Venice kicks off this week with Telluride and Toronto right behind it. Yet a major development occurred last week as the sands of time are moving slower for Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two. The epic sequel was pushed back to the spring of 2024.
How big of an impact does that make for my forecasts? A heavy one as I had it achieving 11 nominations. In my previous projections on August 16th, that was second only to Oppenheimer‘s 12. I had it ranked 1st in Makeup and Hairstyling and Visual Effects, 2nd in Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound, 3rd in Picture and Director, and 4th for Adapted Screenplay.
In fact, a victory for Dune in Visual Effects was probably the easiest race to call this early (its predecessor won too). Now it makes the VE contest quite interesting. Oppenheimer could take the prize and mark Christopher Nolan’s second win in a row in the category after 2020’s Tenet. It opens the door wider for The Creator from Gareth Edwards. And there’s now more of a shot for the MCU to nab its first statue in VE for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 in particular.
I plan to do my next update on Labor Day (September 4th). By that time, we will have reviews and buzz from Venice premieres including Ferrari, Maestro, Poor Things, Priscilla, and The Killer. We’ll also have the word out for whatever pics debut at Telluride (to be announced Thursday).
Right after that update on the 4th, the rest of the Venice titles and a slew of Toronto movies will be unveiled. They include The Holdovers, Rustin, Dumb Money, Next Goal Wins, Society of the Snow, Origin, Pain Hustlers,Nyad, Lee, American Fiction, The Burial, and Hit Man.
In other words… it’s about to get really interesting, folks! I’m also dropping some titles that I’m just not sure are actually releasing in 2023 like The Piano Lesson. Obviously, it will re-enter the dance if there’s confirmation on a release this year. Questions persist about other ones. Is Long Day’s Journey Into Night happening before December 31st? Is Shirley or Freud’s Last Session? Will other currently scheduled releases pull a Dune? The answer is likely affirmative.
With the Dune shift, Air moves back into my BP 10 and Bradley Cooper (Maestro) is in Director over Denis Villeneuve. In non-Dune related shifts, Sandra Huller is now #1 in Actress over The Color Purple‘s Fantasia Barrino. Charles Melton from May December hits my Supporting Actor five over Willem Dafoe (Poor Things).
You can read all the movement below and my next update with the Venice buzz arrives in a week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Maestro (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)
10. Air (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Saltburn (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)
15. Ferrari (PR: 16) (+1)
16. The Killer (PR: 17) (+1)
17. May December (PR: 20) (+3)
18. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (E)
19. One Life (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 19) (-1)
21. Rustin (PR: 24) (+3)
22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (E)
23. Dumb Money (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Book of Clarence (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
The Piano Lesson
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)
7. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)
15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 10) (E)
11. Caille Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (E)
12. Aunjanue Ellis, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren, Golda
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (E)
12. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (-1)
14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (E)
11. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: 11) (E)
12. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Niecy Nash-Betts, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Air (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. May December (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
11. Napoleon (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)
8. One Life (PR: 9) (+1)
9. BlackBerry (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (E)
13. Dumb Money (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Killer (PR: 15) (+1)
15. All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
The Piano Lesson
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Taste of Things (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Monster (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
9. La Chimera (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
El Conde
The Delinquents
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: 9) (E)
10. They Shot the Piano Player (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)
3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)
4. Every Body (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 6) (E)
7. Orlando, A Political Biography (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wild Life (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Deepest Breath (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Black Ice
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Chevalier (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (E)
8. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Air (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Killer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ferrari (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Barbie (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Golda (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked
10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Wonka
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Elemental (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Killer (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)
10. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Poor Things
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)
4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities
6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Napoleon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ferrari (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Barbie
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Creator (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Rebel Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wonka (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Little Mermaid (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Killers of the Flower Moon
Blue Beetle
That means I’m predicting the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
8 Nominations
Barbie, Maestro
7 Nominations
The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things
5 Nominations
Napoleon
4 Nominations
Air, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, The Killer, May December,Monster, Nimona, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol
It’s looking like Netflix is going all in on Bradley Cooper’s Maestro being their main contender for awards love in 2023. With its first trailer out this week, the biopic is the biggest riser in Best Picture. Additionally, Carey Mulligan joins the Best Actress field with Annette Bening (Nyad) falling out.
Supporting Actress also sees a change as Viola Davis (Air) is back in over Rosamud Pike for Saltburn. It’s not a good update for Emerald Fennell’s sophomore feature as it also drops from BP with Poor Things returning.
In another significant development, Cillian Murphy’s work in Oppenheimer rises to #1 in Best Actor for the first time over Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon).
You can expect one more update at month’s end before the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto festivals arrive and dramatically reshape the race. That’s where we’ll catch our first glimpses and see first reactions to many contenders. They include Maestro, Poor Things, Rustin, The Killer, Ferrari, Priscilla, El Conde, Dumb Money, Nyad, Lee, One Life, Next Goal Wins, and more.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maestro (PR: 8) (+3)
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Saltburn (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)
14. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Ferrari (PR: 18) (+2)
17. The Killer (PR: 16) (-1)
18. Asteroid City (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+1)
20. May December (PR: 17) (-3)
21. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Piano Lesson (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Rustin (PR: 21) (-3)
25. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bob Marley: One Love
Priscilla
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (E)
13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)
15. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wes Anderson, Asteroid City
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (E)
13. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)
15. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Emily Blunt, Pain Hustlers
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (E)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (E)
14. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Helena Bonham Carter, One Life (PR: 13) (+2)
1.2 Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12 ) (-1)
14. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Audra McDonald, Rustin
America Ferrera, Barbie
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)
8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Glynn Turman, Rustin
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Saltburn (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Rustin (PR: 10 (E)
11. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 15) (+3)
13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 11) (-2)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bob Marley: One Love
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-3)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. BlackBerry (PR: 10) (+2)
9. One Life (PR: 14) (+5)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Killer (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Ferrari
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)
4. Monster (PR: 4) (E)
5.The Taste of Things (formerly The Pot-Au-Feu) (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fallen Leaves (PR: 8) (+1)
8. El Conde (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Delinquents (PR: 9) (E)
10. La Chimera (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)
3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Every Body (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wild Life (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Black Ice (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Kokomo City
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Poor Things (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Chevalier (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Air (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ferrari (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Killer (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Glaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Priscilla (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Golda (PR: 8) (E)
9. Beau is Afraid (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Color Purple
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Napoleon
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+5)
5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)
7. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Maestro (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Zone of Interest
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Creator (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wonka (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blue Beetle (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Barbie
That means I’m projecting these numbers of nominations for these films:
12 Nominations
Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
7 Nominations
Barbie, Maestro
6 Nominations
The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things
5 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon
2 Nominations
Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, Ferrari, May December, Monster, Priscilla, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
The box office and critical phenomenon known as Barbenheimer looms large over my first August Oscar predictions. I toyed with moving Oppenheimer and its maker Christopher Nolan to the #1 spots in BP and Director. They sit in second with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon clinging to the top. On the other hand, Robert Downey Jr.’s work in Oppenheimer is now first over Robert De Niro from Killers.
Meanwhile, I have finally put Barbie in my ten BP contenders and that takes out Air. While it materializes in the big race, I’m still keeping Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie out of Director and Actress, respectively.
We are a month away from the triumvirate of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. They will undoubtedly shape and alter what you read below. Here’s where I believe it stands right now.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)
7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Barbie (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Poor Things (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Air (PR: 9) (-3)
13. The Holdovers (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Napoleon (PR: 15) (E)
16. The Killer (PR: 21) (+5)
17. May December (PR: 15) (-1)
18. Ferrari (PR: 22) (+4)
19. Asteroid City (PR: 17) (-2)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 18) (-2)
21. Rustin (PR: 19) (-2)
22. The Piano Lesson (PR: 20) (-2)
23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
BlackBerry
The Book of Clarence
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5 (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (E)
12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (E)
13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)
15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)
11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (E)
13. Emily Blunt, Pain Hustlers (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)
15. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Judy Greer, Eric Larue
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+4)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)
10. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 11) (E)
12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (E)
13. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 7) (-7)
15. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
David Strathairn, A Little Prayer
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)
10. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)
11. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
14. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (-1)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)
8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 15) (+5)
11. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 11) (E)
12. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 9) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Matt Bomer, Maestro
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saltburn (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)
4. Air (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Napoleon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Rustin (PR: 9) (-1)
11. The Book of Clarence (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Fair Play (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Drive Away Dolls
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (E)
9. Next Goal Wins (PR: 13) (+4)
10. BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)
11. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (+1)
12. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (-2)
13. The Killer (PR: 11) (-2)
14. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dumb Money
Freud’s Last Session
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Monster (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Pot-Au-Feu (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (E)
7. El Conde (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Fallen Leaves (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)
10. La Chimera (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Perfect Days
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Killer (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Poor Things
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ferrari (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Killer
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Creator (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wonka (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Poor Things
Spaceman
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
8 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Color Purple, Past Lives
6 Nominations
Poor Things
4 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest
3 Nominations
Maestro
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, About Dry Grasses, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Ferrari, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songsbirds and Snakes, May December, Monster, The Mother of All Lies, Nyad, The Pot-Au-Feu, Rustin, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
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