Oscar Predictions: Father Stu

If you prefer Mel Gibson playing Mark Wahlberg’s dad in a drama involving religion and inflammatory muscle diseases and not comedy sequels like Daddy’s Home 2, then Father Stu might be your jam. The biopic is out today and the faith-based experience (a rare one that’s rated R) hopes to cash in during Easter weekend.

A passion project for its star, the role for Wahlberg seems like the type of material meant to garner awards chatter. Yet an underwhelming 44% on Rotten Tomatoes tells a different tale. The artist formerly known as Marky has one Oscar nomination to his credit in Supporting Actor for 2006’s The Departed. Even though three of his cast members were up for The Fighter in 2010 (with Christian Bale and Melissa Leo winning), he failed to punch in.

Bottom line: Father Stu would need divine intervention to score a nod for Wahlberg or anything else. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Father Stu Box Office Prediction

A passion project for its lead, Father Stu hopes for a congregation in multiplexes when it debuts on Wednesday, April 13th. Mark Wahlberg stars and produces in the true story of a boxer turned priest who suffers from a muscular disease. Rosalind Russell is director/writer with a supporting cast including Mel Gibson, Jacki Weaver, Teresa Ruiz, and Niko Nicotera.

Sony Pictures is hopeful that fans of Wahlberg and a faith-based crowd turn up for the drama over the Easter frame. Movies with Christian themes can often over perform at the box office and this certainly could.

However, even a five-day gross in double digits could be out of reach. I’ll project it falls just under that.

Father Stu opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $8.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore prediction, click here:

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore Box Office Prediction

The Marksman Box Office Prediction

Liam Neeson headlines the first new wide release of 2021 with The Marksman next weekend. The action pic casts Neeson as a former Marine (with a particular set of skills I assume) protecting a young boy from harm by a Mexican cartel. Robert Lorenz, a frequent collaborator of Clint Eastwood, directs. Costars include Katheryn Winnick, Juan Pablo Raba, and Teresa Ruiz.

It goes without saying, but the COVID-19 pandemic is still causing many theater closures and limited audiences for fresh product. This looks to continue into the foreseeable future. That has made the forecasting of pictures quite a dubious proposition and I took a break for the last couple of months.

I shall try again. This is not Neeson’s first foray into available multiplexes during COVID. In October, Honest Thief debuted to $3.6 million stateside. Considering the circumstances, that was pretty decent. I suspect The Marksman won’t quite hit that target, but it should come pretty darn close.

The Marksman opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million