Tag: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

2023 Oscar Predictions: October 3rd Edition

The September triumvirate of high profile festivals (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) is in the rearview mirror. The New York Film Festival is happening now though there’s not a huge number of pictures that didn’t already premiere at earlier fests. One that did – Garth Davis’s Foe – proved to be an awards bust. With a 21% Rotten Tomatoes score, you can assume this is the last time it will be mentioned in these prediction posts.

Truth be told, there are just a few Oscar bait titles left to screen. They include The Color Purple, Napoleon, Disney’s Wish, The Iron Claw, and Wonka (in some tech races).

I thought this might be an opportune time to tell you how my 2022 predictions from this same time of year stood up. Last year, when I did forecasts for the 95th Academy Awards on October 5th, it yielded an impressive 8 of the eventual nominees (winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking). The other two nominees (Avatar: The Way of Water and Elvis) were both listed in other possibilities.

For Best Director, I correctly called three of the five (winners the Daniels for Everything Everywhere, Todd Field for Tár, Steven Spielberg with The Fabelmans). Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Rüben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) were identified as other possibilities.

The #3 also applied to Actress as I named winner Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everything) along with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans). Ana de Armas (Blonde) was tagged under other possibilities while Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) was not yet on the radar screen. Same goes for Best Actor (3) where I had winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Bill Nighy (Living) in othjer possibilities. Paul Mescal (Aftersun) was outside of the top ten.

In the supporting derbies, my 2022 early October projections gave you only two of the eventual five in Supporting Actress with Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Hong Chau (The Whale). Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere) was an other possibility. The winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere) was not yet in my listed ten nor was fellow nominee Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever). For Supporting Actor, I correctly had three with winner Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) and Banshees costars Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) was in other possibilities while Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) had not entered my mix.

Whew. For those keeping score, that means I predicted 22 of the 35 movies, directors, and actors in those six races at this same juncture in 2022.

My first October projections contain a few alterations from my final September write-up. As much as I don’t like taking Toronto’s People’s Choice Award victor American Fiction out of my BP lineup, I’m doing so with The Zone of Interest back in that list. On the same note, Zone‘s filmmaker Jonathan Glazer returns to my directing quintet with Celine Song (Past Lives) on the outside looking in.

Greta Lee (Past Lives) jumps back in Actress with Margot Robbie (Barbie) omitted. However, Lee’s costar John Magaro is dropped from Supporting Actor in favor of Charles Melton (May December).

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Air (PR: 12) (E)

13. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)

15. Origin (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)

7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeffrey Wright, Amerian Fiction (PR: 6) (E)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Teo Yoo, Past Lives

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (E)

7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4 ) (E)

5. Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Fair Play (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)

4. About Dry Grasses (PR: 5) (-1)

5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Settlers (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Promised Land (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Teachers’ Lounge

Io capitano

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nimona (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Suzume

Robot Dreams

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Every Body (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 5) (-3)

9. It Ain’t Over (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

American Symphony

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Chevalier (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Priscilla (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wonka (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Maestro

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Maestro (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Air (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Barbie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ferrari (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Beau is Afraid (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Golda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nyad (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Oppenheimer

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Killer (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Asteroid City

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 9) (+3)

7. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (-3)

10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“High Life” from Flora and Son

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ferrari (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Creator (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (-2)

That means I’m projecting these movies will garner these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

10 Nominations

Poor Things

9 Nominations

Barbie

6 Nominations

The Color Purple, Maestro

5 Nominations

Past Lives

4 Nominations

The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest

3 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall

2 Nominations

Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, The Killer, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol

Oscar Predictions – PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie

PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie arrives in theaters tomorrow and it’s the second animated feature based on the popular Nickelodeon series. Cal Brunker returns to direct with voice cast actors including Mckenna Grace, Taraji P. Henson, Kim Kardashian, James Marsden, and Kristen Bell.

Initial reviews are encouraging with an 88% Rotten Tomatoes rating. That score may go down, but it’s currently higher than the 80% earned by its 2021 predecessor. However, I don’t really see this contending for Best Animated Feature. The first PAW didn’t and there’s other sequels or reboots that could stand a better shot. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, for example, boasts a 96% RT meter. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget has yet to drop and it could emerge as a hopeful. With Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Boy and the Heron, and Elemental probably already in and Wish on deck, don’t count on these dogs to make it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

2023 Oscar Predictions: September 23rd Edition

To say that September has given us plenty to think about when it comes to Oscar speculation is a massive understatement. Of course, it’s always been this way with the many titles premiering at the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals. Those fests cause the stock of certain pictures and performers to rise and fall.

In the past week alone, there’s been lots of big news. It was announced that Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) will vie for lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress (where she was seen as a strong favorite to win).

Then the nation of France shocked us by announcing that they’re selecting The Taste of Things to compete in International Feature Film instead of Anatomy of a Fall, which was also looked at as a frontrunner.

Finally, it was confirmed that Bob Marley: One Love will not be receiving a limited December release. Instead it’ll drop in February 2024 so we can officially write off Kingsley Ben-Adir’s chances for this year.

For now, I’m still predicting that Anatomy will materialize in the Picture, Actress, and Original Screenplay races. I am dropping its director Justine Triet from my projected five.

As for the Gladstone news, I’m slotting her right behind Emma Stone (Poor Things) in the lead derby. Gladstone’s disappearance in Supporting Actress causes Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) to become #1 (I’d had Gladstone in first for months prior to the surprising announcement). Viola Davis (Air) is back in my five due to the developments.

Readers of the blog know that over the past few days, I did individual posts updating Picture, Director, and the four acting races. I also whittled BP down from 25 to 15 possibilities and the others from 15 to 10.

With Barbie‘s announced move to Original Screenplay, it moves to #1 over Past Lives. In Adapted, festival love propels Poor Things to the top spot over Killers of the Flower Moon.

A noteworthy Actress alteration besides Gladstone joining the quintet is Barbie herself (Margot Robbie) making the cut. Greta Lee (Past Lives) and Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) are now on the outside looking in.

Here’s where I have it shaking out in my first full predictions in nearly a month!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)

6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-3)

10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (E)

12. Air (PR: 12) (E)

13. Origin (PR: 13) (E)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)

15. Napoleon (PR: 15) (E)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (E)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Anthony Hopkins, One Life

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)

10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon – moved to Best Actress

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-2)

5. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)

9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted Screenplay

2. Past Lives (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Air (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 3) (-3)

7. May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Saltburn (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Fair Play (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Rustin

Napoleon

The Boy and the Heron

The Book of Clarence

The Iron Claw

A Thousand and One

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predited Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (-1)

4. American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 15) (+10)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hit Man (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Origin (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Barbie – moved to Original Screenplay

One Life

BlackBerry

Next Goal Wins

The Nickel Boys

Dumb Money

The Killer

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 8) (+5)

4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+2)

5. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Delinquents (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Promised Land (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Il capitano (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Anatomy of a Fall

Monster

The Boy and the Heron

La Chimera

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Nimona (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Robot Dreams (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Suzume (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia

They Shot the Piano Player

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)

3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. American Symphony (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Eternal Memory (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Every Body (PR: 4) (-5)

10. It Ain’t Over (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wild Life

The Deepest Breath

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ferrari

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Barbie (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Chevalier (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Priscilla (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Wonka (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ferrari (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Air (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Holdovers (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

The Killer

The Color Purple

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Priscilla (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Nyad (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Golda (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Beau is Afraid

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Killer (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

One Life

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 5) (+2)

4. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (E)

8. “High Life” from Flora and Son (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10 (+1)

10. “Dance The Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Steal the Show” from Elemental

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)

7. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Ferrari (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Napoleon (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)

8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Creator

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Creator (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Rebel Moon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

The Little Mermaid

And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Poor Things

10 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

The Color Purple

6 Nominations

Maestro

4 Nominations

The Holdovers

3 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall

2 Nominations

Air, American Fiction, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Wish, The Zone of Interest

1 Nomination

About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Orlando, My Political Biography, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rebel Moon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, 20 Days in Mariupol

September 8-10 Box Office Predictions

A sequel filled September continues with The Nun II looking to conjure up big money while My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 hopes to post comparable grosses to its 2016 predecessor. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

The Nun II Box Office Prediction
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 Box Office Prediction

In 2018, The Nun surprisingly achieved the largest premiere in the Conjuring Universe (a record that still stands) at $53 million. While I don’t expect the follow-up to reach that level, a solid high 30s start is my call.

As for Greek Wedding, the first sequel didn’t come close to matching what the smash 2002 original accomplished. I see the numbers continuing to dwindle with the third iteration and I have it barely topping $10 million. That should put #3 in third.

Current champ The Equalizer 3 should fall to second after a robust Labor Day weekend haul (more on that below). A mid 50s decline should put it in the low to mid teens.

Barbie looks to land in the four spot while Oppenheimer and Blue Beetle could duke it out for fifth. I’ve got them both just under $4 million.

Here’s how I envision the top six:

1. The Nun II

Predicted Gross: $38.7 million

2. The Equalizer 3

Predicted Gross: $15.4 million

3. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

4. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

5. Blue Beetle

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

6. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

Box Office Results (September 1-4)

Denzel Washington is quite consistent in his sole franchise as audiences turned up for The Equalizer 3. Reportedly the final entry in the violent series, it earned the second best Labor Day weekend of all time at $42.8 million. That edges my call of $39.2 million. The three-day gross of $34.6 million is right on target with its two predecessors.

Barbie was second with $13.4 million over the long frame. I was generous (a theme for the weekend) at $16.2 million. The highest grossing movie of 2023 sits at $612 million domestically.

Blue Beetle was third with $9.4 million (I said $9.5 million!) as the DCU disappointment has made $58 million after three weeks.

Gran Turismo, despite an A Cinemascore, plummeted from 1st to 4th in its sophomore outing. The racing flick stalled at $8.7 million, well under my $12.1 million take for just $30 million thus far.

Oppenheimer rounded out the top five at $7.6 million (I went with $9.1 million) for a mega $310 million tally.

Finally, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem crossed the nine digit mark. The animated reboot made $6.2 million in sixth (I said more with $8.4 million) for $107 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

September 1-4 Box Office Predictions

Denzel Washington hopes for a fruitful holiday weekend at the box office with The Equalizer 3. It aims to have the second best Labor Day debut of all time as the only newcomer of the frame. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The Equalizer 3 Box Office Prediction

The third feature in the action trilogy should have little trouble achieving that 2nd best mark. Labor Day weekend is normally one where studios avoid breaking out the big guns. In 2021, Marvel ignored that tradition with Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings and its $94 million beginning. The runner-up opening belongs to 2007’s Halloween remake at $30 million and I’ve got Equalizer a shade under $40 million.

With an extra day of grosses, the weekend should see meager declines and even some increases for holdovers. I believe this should allow Barbie to stay put in second for the third week in a row while current champ Gran Turismo drops to third. The four to six slots should be a combination of Blue Beetle, Oppenheimer, and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. I have that trio separated by just over a million so their positions could fluctuate.

Here’s how I envision that top six and keep in mind these estimates are for the four-day:

1. The Equalizer 3

Predicted Gross: $39.2 million

2. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

3. Gran Turismo

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

4. Blue Beetle

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

5. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

Box Office Results (August 25-27)

National Cinema Day on Sunday helped some pics post small declines, but it wasn’t enough to prevent the Playstation based Gran Turismo from a so-so start. The racing drama took in $17.4 million, a tad below my $19.3 million projection. That’s good enough for first, but hardly provides Sony with bragging rights. With an A Cinemascore, it’ll hope for legs over Labor Day and could be successful as I only have it falling around 15%.

Barbie was second with $15.1 million compared to my $16.5 million take. The year’s largest hit is up to $592 million in six weeks.

Blue Beetle went from 1st to 3rd with $12.1 million, a shade under my $13.2 million prediction. The DCU flop stands at only $45 million after ten days.

Oppenheimer was fourth with $8.2 million (I said $8.1 million) as the epic has amassed $299 million thus far.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem rounded out the top five with $7.2 million, in range with my $6.8 million estimate. The four-week total is $99 million.

Finally, two newcomers failed to find a crowd. Liam Neeson’s Retribution opened in line with the star’s recent action flicks with $3.5 million for eighth position. That is better than my call of $2.4 million. The nine slot went to sports drama The Hill with $2.3 million as it couldn’t climb to my $3.3 million guesstimate.

That does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation wherever you prefer to stream. Until next time…

2023 Oscar Predictions: August 28th Edition

You could correctly call this Oscar Predictions post the calm before the festival storm as Venice kicks off this week with Telluride and Toronto right behind it. Yet a major development occurred last week as the sands of time are moving slower for Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two. The epic sequel was pushed back to the spring of 2024.

How big of an impact does that make for my forecasts? A heavy one as I had it achieving 11 nominations. In my previous projections on August 16th, that was second only to Oppenheimer‘s 12. I had it ranked 1st in Makeup and Hairstyling and Visual Effects, 2nd in Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound, 3rd in Picture and Director, and 4th for Adapted Screenplay.

In fact, a victory for Dune in Visual Effects was probably the easiest race to call this early (its predecessor won too). Now it makes the VE contest quite interesting. Oppenheimer could take the prize and mark Christopher Nolan’s second win in a row in the category after 2020’s Tenet. It opens the door wider for The Creator from Gareth Edwards. And there’s now more of a shot for the MCU to nab its first statue in VE for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 in particular.

I plan to do my next update on Labor Day (September 4th). By that time, we will have reviews and buzz from Venice premieres including Ferrari, Maestro, Poor Things, Priscilla, and The Killer. We’ll also have the word out for whatever pics debut at Telluride (to be announced Thursday).

Right after that update on the 4th, the rest of the Venice titles and a slew of Toronto movies will be unveiled. They include The Holdovers, Rustin, Dumb Money, Next Goal Wins, Society of the Snow, Origin, Pain Hustlers, Nyad, Lee, American Fiction, The Burial, and Hit Man.

In other words… it’s about to get really interesting, folks! I’m also dropping some titles that I’m just not sure are actually releasing in 2023 like The Piano Lesson. Obviously, it will re-enter the dance if there’s confirmation on a release this year. Questions persist about other ones. Is Long Day’s Journey Into Night happening before December 31st? Is Shirley or Freud’s Last Session? Will other currently scheduled releases pull a Dune? The answer is likely affirmative.

With the Dune shift, Air moves back into my BP 10 and Bradley Cooper (Maestro) is in Director over Denis Villeneuve. In non-Dune related shifts, Sandra Huller is now #1 in Actress over The Color Purple‘s Fantasia Barrino. Charles Melton from May December hits my Supporting Actor five over Willem Dafoe (Poor Things).

You can read all the movement below and my next update with the Venice buzz arrives in a week!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Maestro (PR: 5) (E)

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)

10. Air (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Saltburn (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)

15. Ferrari (PR: 16) (+1)

16. The Killer (PR: 17) (+1)

17. May December (PR: 20) (+3)

18. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (E)

19. One Life (PR: 21) (+2)

20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 19) (-1)

21. Rustin (PR: 24) (+3)

22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (E)

23. Dumb Money (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

25. The Book of Clarence (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

The Piano Lesson

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)

7. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)

14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)

15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 10) (E)

11. Caille Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (E)

12. Aunjanue Ellis, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Helen Mirren, Golda

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)

5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (E)

10. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (E)

12. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (-1)

14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)

9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (E)

11. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: 11) (E)

12. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Niecy Nash-Betts, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)

3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Air (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. May December (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Fair Play (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)

11. Napoleon (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)

15. A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)

8. One Life (PR: 9) (+1)

9. BlackBerry (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (E)

13. Dumb Money (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Killer (PR: 15) (+1)

15. All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

The Piano Lesson

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)

3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Taste of Things (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Monster (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)

9. La Chimera (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

El Conde

The Delinquents

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nimona (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Robot Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: 9) (E)

10. They Shot the Piano Player (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)

3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)

4. Every Body (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 6) (E)

7. Orlando, A Political Biography (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wild Life (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Deepest Breath (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Black Ice

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Poor Things (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+2)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. Chevalier (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (E)

8. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Air (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Killer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ferrari (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Barbie (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Golda (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked

10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Wonka

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Elemental (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Killer (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+4)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)

10. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Poor Things

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)

4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities

6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Napoleon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ferrari (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Barbie

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Creator (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Rebel Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wonka (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Little Mermaid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Killers of the Flower Moon

Blue Beetle

That means I’m predicting the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

8 Nominations

Barbie, Maestro

7 Nominations

The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things

5 Nominations

Napoleon

4 Nominations

Air, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest

2 Nominations

Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, The Killer, May December, Monster, Nimona, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol

August 25-27 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (08/23): I’ve downgraded my Turismo prediction from $24.3M to $19.3M.

The month of August closes out with a trio of new titles and National Cinema Day happening on Sunday with ticket prices at $4 in thousands of theaters. The Playstation based racing drama Gran Turismo, faith-based baseball drama The Hill, and Liam Neeson’s action thriller Retribution premiere and you can access my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Gran Turismo Box Office Prediction
The Hill Box Office Prediction
Retribution Box Office Prediction

With high familiarity for the video game source material and decent enough reviews, Gran Turismo should place first with a mid 20s haul. The National Cinema Day bargain prices on Sunday could push this to grosses similar to what Blue Beetle made in its opening.

Speaking of Beetle, it may drop from first to third in its sophomore frame after a poor start (more on that below). That’s because Barbie should see a smaller decline and remain in second.

As for other holdovers, Oppenheimer and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem should each ease a spot to fourth and fifth.

That’s because I don’t envision The Hill or Retribution hitting the top five. The former could exceed my forecast if it breaks through with Christian audiences. I have it at $3.3 million. With Retribution, I see no compelling reason why it wouldn’t open on pace with recent Neeson pics and that’d mean an opening of just over $3 million. I’ll go a tad less with $2.4 million.

Here’s how I see that high five playing out:

1. Gran Turismo

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million

2. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $16.5 million

3. Blue Beetle

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

Box Office Results (August 18-20)

Good news and bad news for Warner Bros as Barbie became the studio’s largest domestic earner of all time over 2008’s The Dark Knight. Obviously that’s the good news.

WB saw Barbie‘s four-week reign atop the charts by the WB’s Blue Beetle. Yet that’s kinda the bad news because its $25 million beginning is the lowest in the decade plus history of the DCU. It did manage to barely top my $23.7 million take, but it’s still a subpar start.

As for Barbie, it was second with $21 million. That’s just under my $22.5 million projection as its $566 million total set for the aforementioned record.

Oppenheimer was third with $10.7 million compared to my $12.7 million estimate for a five-week tally of $285 million.

Fourth place belonged to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem with $8.5 million (I said $9.2 million) for $88 million in three weeks.

Rounding out the top five in disappointing fashion was Strays. The R rated comedy featuring Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx voicing dirty dogs tanked with $8.2 million. I was kinder at $13.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your preferred streaming platform. Until next time…

2023 Oscar Predictions: August 16th Edition

It’s looking like Netflix is going all in on Bradley Cooper’s Maestro being their main contender for awards love in 2023. With its first trailer out this week, the biopic is the biggest riser in Best Picture. Additionally, Carey Mulligan joins the Best Actress field with Annette Bening (Nyad) falling out.

Supporting Actress also sees a change as Viola Davis (Air) is back in over Rosamud Pike for Saltburn. It’s not a good update for Emerald Fennell’s sophomore feature as it also drops from BP with Poor Things returning.

In another significant development, Cillian Murphy’s work in Oppenheimer rises to #1 in Best Actor for the first time over Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon).

You can expect one more update at month’s end before the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto festivals arrive and dramatically reshape the race. That’s where we’ll catch our first glimpses and see first reactions to many contenders. They include Maestro, Poor Things, Rustin, The Killer, Ferrari, Priscilla, El Conde, Dumb Money, Nyad, Lee, One Life, Next Goal Wins, and more.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maestro (PR: 8) (+3)

6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Saltburn (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Air (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)

14. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Ferrari (PR: 18) (+2)

17. The Killer (PR: 16) (-1)

18. Asteroid City (PR: 19) (+1)

19. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+1)

20. May December (PR: 17) (-3)

21. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (+1)

23. The Piano Lesson (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Rustin (PR: 21) (-3)

25. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bob Marley: One Love

Priscilla

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (E)

13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)

14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)

15. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wes Anderson, Asteroid City

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (E)

13. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)

15. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Emily Blunt, Pain Hustlers

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)

5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (E)

11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (E)

14. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)

9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Helena Bonham Carter, One Life (PR: 13) (+2)

1.2 Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12 ) (-1)

14. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Audra McDonald, Rustin

America Ferrera, Barbie

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)

8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (E)

9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Glynn Turman, Rustin

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Saltburn (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Air (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Fair Play (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Rustin (PR: 10 (E)

11. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-2)

12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 15) (+3)

13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 11) (-2)

14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)

15. A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bob Marley: One Love

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-3)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. BlackBerry (PR: 10) (+2)

9. One Life (PR: 14) (+5)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9) (-2)

12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)

14. The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Killer (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Ferrari

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)

3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)

4. Monster (PR: 4) (E)

5.The Taste of Things (formerly The Pot-Au-Feu) (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fallen Leaves (PR: 8) (+1)

8. El Conde (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Delinquents (PR: 9) (E)

10. La Chimera (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Nimona (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Robot Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)

3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Every Body (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wild Life (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Black Ice (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Kokomo City

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 10) (+6)

5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Poor Things (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Chevalier (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Ferrari (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Killer (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saltburn

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Glaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Priscilla (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Golda (PR: 8) (E)

9. Beau is Afraid (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Color Purple

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Napoleon

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+5)

5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)

7. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Maestro (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+6)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Creator (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)

7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wonka (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blue Beetle (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Barbie

That means I’m projecting these numbers of nominations for these films:

12 Nominations

Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

7 Nominations

Barbie, Maestro

6 Nominations

The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things

5 Nominations

The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon

2 Nominations

Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, Ferrari, May December, Monster, Priscilla, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

August 18-20 Box Office Predictions

The DCEU hopes to halt a string of disappointments with Blue Beetle while Strays features the vocal canine stylings of Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx. Both pics will attempt to dethrone Barbie after four weeks on top. My individual prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Blue Beetle Box Office Prediction
Strays Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros and DC Comics have seen some underwhelming returns as of late with Black Adam, Shazam! Fury of the Gods, and this summer’s mega flop The Flash. I don’t anticipate their fortunes will turn with Beetle. A best case scenario might be $30 million. My projection below $25 million does give it an ever so slight edge over Barbie (which I see falling in the mid 30s in its fifth outing). Yet I doubt WB/DC will be bragging.

As for Strays, the R-rated comedy might have benefitted from Ferrell and Foxx hitting the promotion circuit. With the SAG-AFTRA strike, that’s not an option. This genre has struggled in recent years anyway. My low to mid teens take puts it in third with a start similar to No Hard Feelings from a few weeks back.

Oppenheimer and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem should fill out the rest of the top five and here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Blue Beetle

Predicted Gross: $23.7 million

2. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $22.5 million

3. Strays

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million

4. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million

Box Office Results (August 11-13)

The summer phenomenon that is Barbenheimer returned to rule the charts with Barbie leading the way. In its fourth frame, it took in $33.8 million and that’s good for the ninth best fourth weekend in history. It’s also a touch higher than my $30.4 million forecast as it climbed to $526 million overall.

Oppenheimer returned to the runner-up slot with $18.8 million, on target with my $19 million take. Christopher Nolan’s epic was down only 35% and it’s up to $264 million.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem rose from fourth to third with $15.2 million in its sophomore weekend. My prediction? $15.2 million! The acclaimed animated reboot has made $72 million.

As anticipated, Meg 2: The Trench suffered the heftiest drop of the holdovers (57%). Falling from second to fourth, the shark sequel grossed $12.8 million (I said $12 million) to bring its tally to $54 million. On the brighter side, it’s making a killing overseas like its 2018 predecessor.

Finally, The Last Voyage of the Demeter bombed in fifth with $6.5 million. Dubbed the “Dracula on a Boat” movie, audiences weren’t intrigued as it premiered on pace with my $6.4 million projection. With a B- Cinemascore, looking for it to sink even further next weekend.

And that does it for now, folks! Check out my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your favorite listening stream. Until next time…

August 11-13 Box Office Predictions

The box office bonanza that is Barbenheimer looks to return to the 1-2 positions as waterlogged horror entry The Last Voyage of the Demeter is the only newcomer this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The Last Voyage of the Demeter Box Office Prediction

Demeter may struggle to make de-money (I apologize). Besides the rather bad title, I’m not seeing this have much bite with genre fans. My mid single digits projection puts it in fifth… distantly.

Barbie should have no trouble maintaining the top spot for the fourth weekend in a row. After scoring the 11th largest third frame in domestic history, my $30M+ take gives it the 11th best fourth outing.

Oppenheimer looks to have the slightest decline of the returnees (perhaps mid 30s) and that could mean a bump from 3rd to 2nd.

That’s because current #2 Meg 2: The Trench seems poised for the heftiest dip. Its B- Cinemascore grade (compared to its predecessor’s B+) could mean a 60% plummet after its solid premiere (more on that below).

The second weekend for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (with its A Cinemascore grade) should be rosier with a mid 40s percent downgrade. If that occurs, the crimefighting reptiles might jump to 3rd with Meg in fourth.

Here’s how I see it all playing out:

1. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $30.4 million

2. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $19 million

3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

4. Meg 2: The Trench

Predicted Gross: $12 million

5. The Last Voyage of the Demeter

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

Box Office Results (August 4-6)

I underestimated the giant shark sequel and overestimated the green that the animated reboot would make in respect to Meg 2 and Turtles. As expected, neither came anywhere close to catching Barbie.

The summer smash added another $53 million to its considerable coffers. While that’s under my take of $60.4 million, the $459 domestic cume is astonishing. It also crossed $1 billion worldwide.

Meg 2: The Trench bit off $30 million in second place. That’s well under the $45 million achieved by its predecessor five years back, but ahead of my $24.5 million forecast. The sequel, like the original, will make the bulk of its bucks overseas.

Oppenheimer was third with $29.1 million, right on track with my $29.3 million projection. The acclaimed biopic has amassed $228 million in three weeks.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem generally opened in line with expectations at $28 million from Friday to Sunday and $43 million since its Wednesday bow. I thought it might exceed those numbers and went with $36.1 million and $51.2 million, respectively.

Finally, Haunted Mansion played to empty houses in weekend #2 with a 62% fall in fifth to $9.2 million (I said $11.4 million). The tepid two-week tally is $42 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Keep an eye on the blog this week for my prediction posts on Blue Beetle and Strays and listen to my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your preferred streaming platform…