James Sweeney directs, writes, and costars in Twinless which made serious waves at the Sundance Film Festival in recent days. Costarring Dylan O’Brien, Aisling Franciosi, Lauren Graham, and Chris Perfetti, the heartfelt comedy took the Audience Award in Park City. That’s a prize shared in recent years by Oscar players like Whiplash, Minari, and CODA.
With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 82 on Metacritic, this is one Sundance title that could still be talked about next awards season. Much like A Real Pain, the bulk of the buzz may go to Supporting Actor where O’Brien is drawing raves. Also like Pain, the original screenplay could generate some attention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Lee Daniels is in horror mode for the first time with The Deliverance, out in limited theatrical release this weekend before an August 30th Netflix streaming bow. The supernatural tale is inspired by real events with a cast led by Andra Day and Glenn Close. Costars include Rob Morgan, Caleb McLaughlin, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Tasha Smith, Omar Epps, and Mo’Nique.
Fifteen years ago, Daniels had an awards breakout when Precious landed six Oscar nods including a Supporting Actress victory for Mo’Nique. 2021’s The United States vs. Billie Holiday saw Day contending for lead Actress. Yet any chatter among this acting troupe in The Deliverance has not centered on them. Same goes for Ellis-Taylor, recently up in supporting for King Richard. Her role here is said to be smaller and she is far likelier to be in the mix with the upcoming Nickel Boys.
This brings us to Glenn Close. The eight-time Academy nominee has infamously come up short eight times. Some early write-ups have said her performance is impressive. However, the 47% Rotten Tomatoes score and its genre should rule out a ninth at bat. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Nearly four and a half years ago, Will Smith and Martin Lawrence were riding high with Bad Boys for Life. The third entry in the buddy cop franchise that began nearly 30 years ago set series best marks with $73 million over the four-day MLK frame in January 2020. It ended up with just over $200 million domestically.
And then things got weird. Life was the last mega-grosser before the pandemic hit and stalled the industry for many months. Smith, meanwhile, became embroiled in the infamous Oscar slap controversy two years later with Chris Rock. The directors of part 3 – Adil El Arbi and Bilall Fallah – followed Life up with Batgirl which Warner Bros shockingly decided to shelve for eternity.
So it kind of feels like there’s a lot riding on Bad Boys: Ride or Die when it opens June 7th. Smith and Lawrence are back alongside Joe Pantoliano, Vanessa Hudgens, Alexander Ludwig, Paola Núñez, Jacob Scipio, and DJ Khaled. The Batgirl makers return as well. Newcomers to part 4 include Tiffany Haddish, Eric Dane, Ioan Gruffudd, Rhea Seehorn, Melanie Liburd, and Tasha Smith (pulling an Aunt Viv and replacing Theresa Randle as Lawrence’s wife).
Bad Boys hopes to shake up a summer season where plenty of titles have fallen below expectations. This is also the first test of Smith’s star power post slap. I do not expect it to match the earnings of its predecessor. Part 3 took in $62 million for the three-day portion of its premiere. Sony would probably be satisfied with that and it would quell any “Smith’s career is dead” chatter.
I’m estimating a start that might not totally quell that conversation in the mid to late 40s.
Bad Boys: Ride or Die opening weekend prediction: $47.3 million
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