Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project is available for viewing on HBO/Max streaming this week. Centered on the life and work of the famed poet, the doc from directors Joe Brewster and Michèle Stephenson originally premiered at Sundance nearly a year back. At the festival, it received the Grand Jury Prize. Now it’s one of the 15 contending documentaries at the Oscars.
Sitting at 95% on RT, Mars could be aligned for a slot in the eventual quintet. I would say of the 15 possibilities, it belongs in the top 10 and I’ve had it ranked 7th in my last two updates since the shortlists were announced. We’ll see if it rises or falls in the next few days before nominations are revealed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
We are 17 days out from Oscar nominations being revealed and a flurry of activity is ahead of us. The Golden Globes air Sunday evening and SAG nods come out on Wednesday. The BAFTA long lists were unveiled yesterday and critics groups continue to bestow their honors. Those events (specifically the Globes and SAG) could alter my thinking in the very near future.
As for these first forecasts of the fresh new year, the big news of the past few days was the announcement that Barbie will contend in Adapted Screenplay and not Original. That means I’ve shifted Greta Gerwig’s blockbuster from #1 in its former race to the top spot in its new one. That drops All of Us Strangers from the adapted field and allows Air to enter the high five for original.
You won’t find a whole lot of changes in the main categories. I will note that Barbie is now sitting in the #2 slot in BP with Killers of the Flower Moon sliding to third. In Supporting Actress, the fifth position (which seems wide open) goes to Sandra Hüller in The Zone of Interest. That makes her a double nominee and puts my former pick of Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) on the outside looking in.
You can peruse all the movement below! Keep an eye on the blog this week for reaction to the Globes, SAG nods, and any other noteworthy activity.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: Even)
2. Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)
7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (E)
9. American Fiction (PR: 9) (E)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Color Purple (PR: 11) (E)
12. May December (PR: 12) (E)
13. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Air (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Society of the Snow
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)
7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
J.A. Bayona, Society of the Snow
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)
7. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (-4)
10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)
9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)
4. May December (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Air (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Iron Claw (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Barbie (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-2)
5. American Fiction (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Color Purple
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Society of the Snow (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Perfect Days (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)
8. Io Capitano (PR: 9) (+1)
9. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Four Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Godland
The Monk and the Gun
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
9. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Robot Dreams
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 1) (E)
2. Beyond Utopia (PR: 2) (E)
3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Symphony (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 7) (E)
8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)
10. A Still Small Voice (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barbie (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
El Conde
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wonka (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Chevalier (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Asteroid City
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Air (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Past Lives (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Golda (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 7) (E)
8. Beau is Afraid (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)
7. Elemental (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Barbie (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
American Fiction
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: A Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (+2)
8. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-4)
9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Dear Alien (Who Art In Heaven)” from Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Maestro (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ferrari (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Barbie (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Creator (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Napoleon (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 8) (-2)
That means I’m currently projecting these movies generate these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Oppenheimer, Poor Things
11 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
Maestro, The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers
3 Nominations
American Fiction, May December, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2 Nominations
American Symphony, The Color Purple, Napoleon, Society of the Snow
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rustin, Suzume, The Taste of Things
My final Oscar predictions for calendar year 2023 sees changes in Picture, Actress, and Actor. Anatomy of a Fall is back in the BP ten with The Color Purple falling out (despite its impressive box office bow on Christmas Day). That said – it’s a coin flip.
In Actress, I’ve elevated Greta Lee (Past Lives) once again at the expense of Margot Robbie’s Barbie. Same goes for Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) in Actor with Colman Domingo’s Rustin out of the projected contending quintet.
I’ll also note that 20 Days in Mariupol is now first in Documentary Feature over longtime first place forecasted Beyond Utopia.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)
9. American Fiction (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (-1)
12. May December (PR: 12) (E)
13. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Air (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (-3)
10. J.A. Bayona, Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)
7. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Air (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Taste of Things (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Society of the Snow (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Perfect Days (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)
8. Godland (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Io Capitano (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
7. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)
10. A Still Small Voice (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. El Conde (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Killer
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonka (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Chevalier (PR: 9) (E)
10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Priscilla
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Air (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Maestro (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Past Lives (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Killer
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Society of the Snow (PR: 4) (E)
5. Golda (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ferrari (PR: 9) (E)
10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 6) (-4)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Elemental (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Barbie (PR: 8) (-1)
10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” from Asteroid City
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Napoleon (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wonka (PR: 10) (-1)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ferrari (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)
5. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Killer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)
9. Barbie (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (E)
7. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (E)
10. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-2)
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:
13 Nominations
Oppenheimer
12 Nominations
Poor Things
11 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
9 Nominations
Barbie
6 Nominations
Maestro, The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
The Color Purple, The Holdovers
3 Nominations
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, May December, Past Lives, Society of the Snow
2 Nominations
The Boy and the Heron
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Air, All of Us Strangers, American Symphony, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Beyond Utopia, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge
The Color Purple has existed for over four decades via book (by Alice Walker), film (Steven Spielberg’s 1985 adaptation), and Broadway play (beginning in 2005). At each turn, it’s generated awards attention. The book won a Pulitzer. The first cinematic rendering landed 11 Academy nominations (though it didn’t win any of them). The first iteration of the play also managed 11 Tony nods and a single victory in lead actress while the 2015 revival nabbed four nominations and two trophies (including Cynthia Erivo in lead actress).
On Christmas Day, the screen treatment of the stage musical arrives in theaters. Blitz Bazawule directs with a cast including Fantasia Barrino, Taraji P. Henson, Danielle Brooks, Colman Domingo, Corey Hawkins, H.E.R., Ciara, Halle Bailey, Aunjanue Ellis, Jon Batiste, Louis Gossett Jr., and David Alan Grier. Spielberg and Oprah Winfrey (who played Sofia in the ’85 adaptation) are producers.
Given the awards heavy past of the source material, Purple has been seen as a potentially significant Oscar hopeful since the project was announced. The review embargo has lapsed (rather late I must say) with a solid 85% Rotten Tomatoes score.
That said, much of the critical reaction is of the *** variety and not ****. Perhaps the biggest snub of the Golden Globe nominations was this not receiving a mention in Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy). Days later, the Critics Choice nods threw Purple a lifeline when it made their Top 10 features.
Any way you cut it, Purple‘s inclusion in the Oscar BP ten is far from certain. I had it listed at #10 in my latest round of predictions on Sunday. If this manages to make the SAG quintet when their nominations are announced for Best Ensemble, that would be another feather in its cap. Though don’t be surprised at all if it misses the BP cut. Bazawule’s direction is highly unlikely to be mentioned (even Spielberg couldn’t get in that race nearly 40 years back). Same goes for the Adapted Screenplay.
Purple will manage to get other nominations. The most certain is Danielle Brooks for Supporting Actress. For months, I had her listed in 1st to win but I recently switched the top spot to Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers. Brooks is playing the same role Winfrey played and got an Academy nod for. In 1985, Whoopi Goldberg was nominated for Actress as Celie. Fantasia Barrino hopes to replicate that success. It’s doable, but competition is fierce. I had her in 7th place on the outside looking in last weekend. 7th place is also where I had Taraji P. Henson in Supporting Actress as Shug. Margaret Avery was nominated for her portrayal in ’85 though Henson has already missed key precursors like the Globes and Critics Choice.
Finally, there are down the line races where it could pop up. This includes Original Song (“Keep It Movin”), Production Design, and Costume Design. It won’t generate 11 mentions like the Spielberg pic. Four or five is more feasible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My first post Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards nominations Oscar forecast doesn’t see any changes in Best Picture and I find myself stuck in the same conundrum. There are 11 films I believe will get nominated and ten spots. Until the Critics Choice nods, I thought The Color Purple might be dead in the water. However, its CCA inclusion keeps it in the mix after its surprise snub at the Globes. I still have it clinging to a nomination over Anatomy of a Fall.
In Best Actor, I’m putting Colman Domingo (Rustin) back in over Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). Yet it’s a coin flip right now and I agree that Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon, currently my 4) could also find himself on the outside looking in.
Julianne Moore is in the Best Supporting Actress quintet for May December. It’s the first time she’s above the line and I’ve taken out Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) to make that room. Also in this race, there’s a new #1 as Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) just keeps collecting critics prize. She tops the list and drops my longtime #1 Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) to second.
You can read all the movement below as I now have Oppenheimer, Killers, and Poor Things all receiving a dozen mentions with Barbie close behind at 11!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)
8. American Fiction (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (E)
12. May December (PR: 12) (E)
13. Air (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Iron Claw
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-3)
8. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Penelope Cruz, Ferrari
Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 10) (+3)
8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 7) (E)
8. Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fair Play
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Taste of Things (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (-2)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tótem (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Io Capitano (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Promised Land (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
20 Days in Mariupol
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elemental (PR: 6) (E)
7. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (E)
8. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-4)
9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Killer
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 6) (+3)
4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (+3)
8. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “A World Of Your Own” from Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
“Dance the Night” from Barbie
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Wonka (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ferrari (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Society of the Snow (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire
Killers of the Flower Moon
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
11 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
Maestro
6 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
The Color Purple, The Holdovers
3 Nominations
May December
2 Nominations
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Past Lives, Rustin, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, The Mother of All Lies, Nimona, Perfect Days, The Taste of Things, Wonka
Blogger’s Update (12/21): I am increasing my The Color Purple one-day projection from $7.9M to $12.9M
An adaptation of the Broadway musical that was adapted from the 1985 Steven Spielberg film that was adapted from the Alice Walker novel, The Color Purple is out in theaters Christmas Day. The awards hopeful’s cast includes Fantasia Barrino (reprising her role from the play), Taraji P. Henson, Danielle Brooks, Colman Domingo, Corey Hawkins, H.E.R., Ciara, Halle Bailey, Aunjanue Ellis, Jon Batiste, Louis Gossett Jr., and David Alan Grier. Blitz Bazawule directs with Spielberg and Oprah Winfrey (who first rose to fame in the ’85 version) producing.
The source material is obviously well-known as this hopes to attract moviegoers on the big holiday. Christmas is on a Monday in 2023 so this projection is only for that day. Obviously that limits the estimate, but that’s not the only limiting factor. Purple has not generated the Oscar buzz that it’s probably hoped for (though Brooks is a threat to win Supporting Actress). Its inclusion in Best Picture is very much in question (it missed a Golden Globe nod earlier this week).
This should still succeed in bringing an African-American and female audience. I’m anticipating its initial day could see a gross in the higher single digits as it hopes to perform well throughout the end of the year and January.
The Color Purple opening day prediction: $12.9 million (Monday estimate only)
For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:
Nominations for the 81st Golden Globe Awards (airing January 7th) were unveiled this morning. As always, there were some surprises and it was a particularly weak day for one hopeful. That said, a lot of what transpired went according to plan. I went 74 for 92 on my picks (I’ll take it!).
Let’s walk through each race with how I did and my initial take on who or what may emerge victorious.
Best Motion Picture Drama
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
Nailed the Drama category as this probably will come down to Oppenheimer vs. Killers.
Best Motion Picture Musical/Comedy
Nominees: Air, American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, May December, Poor Things
How I Did: 5/6
In what might be the most surprising omission of the morning, The Color Purple didn’t make the cut. I (along with everyone else) had it in. I didn’t have Air though it was my alternate. Barbie is the frontrunner though Poor Things is viable.
Best Director
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Celine Song (Past Lives)
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
Just as in Motion Picture Drama, Nolan vs. Scorsese might be the showdown with Gerwig as a potential spoiler.
Best Actress Drama
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
I wouldn’t discount Hüller or Mulligan as slight upset picks, but Gladstone looks to be the favorite.
Best Actor Drama
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
Like the Oscar race, this could end up as a contest between Cooper vs. Murphy.
Best Actress Musical/Comedy
Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Jennifer Lawrence (No Hard Feelings), Natalie Portman (May December), Alma Pöysti (Fallen Leaves), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
How I Did: 4/6
Pöysti is an out of nowhere selection while Lawrence was my alternate. They get in over Abby Ryder Fortson (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (You Hurt My Feelings). This is either Stone (probably) or Robbie (maybe).
Best Actor Musical/Comedy
Nominee: Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario), Timothee Chalamet (Wonka), Matt Damon (Air), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Joaquin Phoenix (Beau Is Afraid), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
How I Did: 5/6
Phoenix in over Gael Garcia Bernal for Cassandro. Wright has a shot, but this is Giamatti’s category to lose in my view.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Julianne Moore (May December), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
How I Did: 5/6
I would’ve picked Brooks as the likely winner until Purple‘s poor performance today. Now I think this acting race, perhaps more than any other, is wide open. I had Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) in instead of Pike.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Charles Melton (May December), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
How I Did: 5/6
Had Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers) and not Dafoe. Downey Jr. is the probable selection though I wouldn’t discount Gosling or Melton.
Best Screenplay
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/6
I did not have Anatomy or Past Lives. Their inclusion is by no means shocking, but I am genuinely surprised The Holdovers did not make the list (neither did American Fiction). This is another race where the voters could go several directions with Barbie perhaps having an ever so slight edge.
Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, John Wick: Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning: Part One, Oppenheimer, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
How I Did: 7/8
This new category can correctly be called the “Barbenheimer” award or the “Let’s Get Taylor Swift To The Ceremony Trophy”. I didn’t have Reckoning and instead had Elemental. Hard to imagine this not going to Barbie.
Best Non-English Motion Picture
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Fallen Leaves, Io Capitano, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 3/6
Here’s where I screwed up. Didn’t have Leaves, Capitano, or Past Lives (which is considered non-English for some reason here). Instead I had Perfect Days, The Taste of Things, and The Teachers’ Lounge. This should come down to Anatomy vs. Zone and I’m currently expecting the former to emerge.
Best Animated Motion Picture
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Suzume, Wish
How I Did: 4/6
Suzume and Wish get in over Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget and Nimona. Some others were blindsided that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem didn’t make it. Boy vs. Spidey is the showdown.
Best Original Score
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 5/6
Zone makes the derby instead of Nyad. This should be Oppenheimer.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Addicted to Romance” from She Came to Me, “Dance the Night” from Barbie, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie, “Road to Freedom” from Rustin, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
How I Did: 3/6
Well, I got half and those were the Barbie tracks. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot, “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple, and “A World of Your Own” from Wonka were my picks instead of “Addicted to Romance” (which could mean Bruce Springsteen shows up), “Peaches”, and “Road to Freedom”. I’d say “What Was I Made For?” or “I’m Just Ken” win.
And there you have it. I’ll have final predictions for the Globes up shortly before airtime. Keep an eye on the blog for all things Oscar!
My first Oscar predictions for the month of December comes on the eve of Golden Globe nominations and days after NBR and AFI revealed their best of for 2023.
There is a change in BP as American Fiction is back in with Anatomy of a Fall out. In Best Actress, Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) reaches the #1 spot. She overtakes Emma Stone in Poor Things who has held the position for several weeks. Gladstone’s rise happens as her costars Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro slip a little in their categories. Also in Best Actress, Margot Robbie (Barbie) returns to the quintet at the expense of Fantasia Barrino in The Color Purple. In Actor, Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) is in over Colman Domingo (Rustin).
Another development worthy of discussion is Visual Effects. Earlier this week, the top 20 hopefuls were announced and Oppenheimer was nowhere to be found. I’d previously had it ranked #1 in the race, but it drops from contention.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. Maestro (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)
9. American Fiction (PR: 11) (+2)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-4)
Other Possibilities:
11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (-1)
12. May December (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)
15. Air (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All of Us Strangers
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)
8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-3)
10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Viola Davis, Air
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4 (E)
5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)
8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Colman Domingo, The Color Purple
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 7) (E)
8. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rustin
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (-1)
7. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 10) (+3)
8. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tótem (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Promised Land (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feautre
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elemental (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Society of the Snow (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-5)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+3)
4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (E)
5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (-3)
7. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Joan Still” from Theater Camp
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wonka (PR: 9) (E)
10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Zone of Interest
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ferrari (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Killer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Society of the Snow (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Creator (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Godzilla Minus One (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Oppenheimer
Society of the Snow
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
Maestro
6 Nominations
The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest
5 Nominations
The Holdovers
3 Nominations
American Fiction, Past Lives
2 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Napoleon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret,Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Nimona, Nyad, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge, Wish
Prior to its January 7th airing on CBS and Paramount+, nominations for the 81st Golden Globe Awards are out Monday, December 11th. After years of airing on NBC, the ceremony has found a new home after the controversies of the last few years involving the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.
That’s not the only change with the program. The categories we are used to have expanded from five to six nominees. And a new competition – Cinematic and Box Office Achievement – comes with eight contenders. We could safely coin this the “Barbenheimer” race unless Taylor Swift has something to say about that.
As always, there’s some controversy in the differentiation between Drama and Musical/Comedy placements. Netflix decided to campaign Todd Haynes’s May December in the latter even though Drama seems more appropriate. It could help it get more noms.
Here we go with my picks in each cinematic derby and I’ll give you an alternate with each.
Motion Picture (Drama)
Anatomy of a Fall
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: Saltburn
Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
American Fiction
Barbie
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
May December
Poor Things
Alternate: Air
Film Director
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Celine Song, Past Lives
Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Actress (Film Drama)
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Cailee Spaney, Priscilla
Alternate: Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One
Actor (Film Drama)
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Alternate: Zac Efron, The Iron Claw
Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Abby Ryder Fortson, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, You Hurt My Feelings
Natalie Portman, May December
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings
Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Gael Garcia Bernal, Cassandro
Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario
Timothee Chalamet, Wonka
Matt Damon, Air
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Alternate: Jamie Foxx, The Burial
Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
Julianne Moore, May December
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Alternate: Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Supporting Actor
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Alternate: Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Best Screenplay
American Fiction
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Alternate: May December
Cinematic and Box Office Achievment
Barbie
Elemental
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
John Wick: Chapter 4
Oppenheimer
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Alternate: The Little Mermaid
Motion Picture (Non-English Language)
Anatomy of a Fall
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Taste of Things
The Teachers’ Lounge
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: The Promised Land
Motion Picture (Animated)
The Boy and the Heron
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Elemental
Nimona
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Alternate: Wish
Original Score
The Boy and the Heron
Killers of the Flower Moon
Nyad
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: Elemental
Original Song
“Dance the Night” from Barbie
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
“Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple
“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot
“A World of Your Own” from Wonka
Alternate: “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
9 Nominations
Barbie
8 Nominations
Oppenheimer
7 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
6 Nominations
Poor Things
5 Nominations
The Color Purple, The Holdovers
4 Nominations
Maestro, May December
3 Nominations
American Fiction, Nyad, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2 Nominations
The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Wonka, The Zone of Interest
1 Nomination
Air, All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Cassandro, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Dream Scenario, Flamin’ Hot, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, John Wick: Chapter 4, Nimona, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rustin, Saltburn, Society of the Snow, The Taste of Things, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, The Teachers’ Lounge, You Hurt My Feelings
As November comes to a close, my updated Oscar predictions reflect one change in Best Picture as Anatomy of a Fall is back in with American Fiction out. Truth be told, I keep going back and forth on which film misses between Fall, Fiction, and The Zone of Interest at press time.
We also have a revolving door in the five spot in Supporting Actress and, for the first time, I’m going with a surprise pick in Rachel McAdams for Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.
The rest of the major races stay intact though I now have Oppenheimer leading in noms overall over Poor Things (which I had ahead in mid November). In fact, Poor Things now ranks third in the tally behind Killers of the Flower Moon.
You can read all the movement below as we approach December with all kinds of precursor indications coming our way!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Air (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (+1)
15. All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Fair Play
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Taste of Things (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (-1)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Promised Land (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tótem (PR: Not Ranked)
10. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Monk and the Gun
The Peasants
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
8. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Every Body (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Deepest Breath
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Priscilla (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Chevalier (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Air (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Past Lives (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Barbie (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Killer (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Color Purple
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nyad (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Golda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-5)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Carmen
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 7) (+3)
5. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+4)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Ferrari (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Killer (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Barbie
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Creator (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (E)
8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
Oppenheimer
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
11 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Color Purple, Maestro
6 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
5 Nominations
The Holdovers
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Rustin
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, American Fiction, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, The Eternal Memory, Ferrari, Four Daughters, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge, Wish
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