Tag: Syriana

Oscar Predictions: Jay Kelly

Will Jay Kelly bring Noah Baumbach and George Clooney back in the Oscar mix and get Adam Sandler there for the first time? Out in limited release November 14th with a Netflix streaming debut on December 5th, the dramedy premiered at Venice. Baumbach shares screenplay duties with actress Emily Mortimer. In addition to the aforementioned leading men (with Clooney playing a giant movie star and Sandler as his manager), costars include Laura Dern, Billy Crudup, Riley Keough, Stacy Keach, and Jim Broadbent.

Some reviews are quite strong. However, Kelly is also drawing some mixed reactions out of Italy. Rotten Tomatoes is at 82% with Metacritic at 64. The latter is slightly alarming when it comes to Best Picture inclusion, but I could still see the Academy going for it.

Clooney is aiming for his fifth acting nod. He won his first nomination in supporting for Syriana. Word-of-mouth from Venice indicates he should be in contention again. Some write-ups are calling Sandler’s role on the thankless side. Yet others praise him enough that a Supporting Actor slot is in reach. The SNL alum likely came closest to an Oscar mention for 2019’s Uncut Gems.

Even if Kelly makes BP, I doubt Baumbach lands in the directorial quintet and even the screenplay could be questionable given the expected competition. Bottom line: Venice didn’t make this a slam dunk in any race, but it could still have an impressive showing. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.

We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and they can be found here:

98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

We arrive at Best Actor. When I gave you my first picks in April of 2024, I correctly picked two of the eventual nominees with Colman Domingo in Sing Sing and Ralph Fiennes for Conclave. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) was listed in Other Possibilities. At that early juncture, the eventual winner Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) and his probable runner-up Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) weren’t on the radar.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar. For example, one year ago, Chalamet’s work as Bob Dylan was not expected to come out in 2024.

This premiere post projects a second nom in a row for Mr. Chalamet as well as return engagements for past winners George Clooney (a Supporting victory 20 years ago for Syriana) and Matthew McConaughey (lead for 2013’s Dallas Buyers Club). Unlike most prognosticators, I have Leonardo DiCaprio on the outside looking in for Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another.

Here’s the first snapshot with Best Actress up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

George Clooney, Jay Kelly

Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King

Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere

Other Possibilities:

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player

Jaafar Jackson, Michael

Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

Andrew Scott, Pressure

Oscar Predictions: Wolfs

George Clooney and Brad Pitt bring their considerable star power to Wolfs which premiered out of competition in Venice. The action comedy receives a limited theatrical release on September 20th before it streams on Apple TV the following weekend. Jon Watts, after helming the last three Spider-Man titles for the MCU, directs with Amy Ryan, Austin Abrams, and Poorna Jagannathan among the supporting players.

Several critics are essentially giving this a pass for coasting well enough on the charisma of its leads. Other reviews are less charitable and it currently sports a 73% Rotten Tomatoes score. Clooney is a four-time acting nominee with a Supporting Actor victory for 2005’s Syriana. As for Pitt? Well, he’s a four-time acting nominee with a Supporting Actor victory for 2019’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. They have other nominations for their directing (Clooney) and producing work (both).

It would seem Wolfs was not made for the Academy’s consideration. Apple should get plenty of viewers to bite. My Oscar Predictions will continue…

Oscars: The Case of Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our third performer in Best Actor and that’s Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

Cinderella Man (Supporting Actor, 2005)

The Case for Paul Giamatti:

He has an Emmy and a Globe as the title character in HBO’s John Adams from 2008, but Paul Giamatti has just one Oscar nod for his supporting work in Cinderella Man. For that nomination, he was in the mix but came up short to George Clooney in Syriana. That means he was snubbed for 2003’s American Splendor and, most notably, 2004’s Sideways. There could be an overdue narrative brewing. As temperamental teacher Paul Hunham in his second collaboration with Alexander Payne behind Sideways, Giamatti has won the Globe for Actor in a Comedy/Musical and took the Critics Choice Award. He’s also in contention for BAFTA tomorrow and SAG next week.

The Case Against Paul Giamtti:

That the Oppenheimer love will translate to Cillian Murphy being named. He is the recipient of the Globe for Actor in a Drama. Perhaps voters will feel The Holdovers is being properly honored in Supporting Actress where Da’Vine Joy Randolph is the frontrunner.

The Verdict:

Giamatti stands an excellent chance… as does Murphy. My suspicion is that Murphy takes BAFTA and Giamatti is out front as SAG. If that pans out, we are in for a showdown on the evening of the Academy’s festivities. If either of the performers win BAFTA/SAG, consider them the strong favorite.

My Case Of posts will continue with America Ferrera in Barbie…

Best Picture 2005: The Expanded Ten

Previously on the blog, I completed a series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!

Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there was a set five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.

This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in. I’ve already covered 2006-08 and you can peruse my posts on them here:

Best Picture 2006: The Expanded Ten
Best Picture 2007: The Expanded Ten
Best Picture 2008: The Expanded Ten

We do know half of the titles that would populate the ten. Those would be the ones that made the quintet 18 years back. During that 78th Oscar ceremony, Jack Nicholson made the surprise announcement that race relations drama Crash from Paul Haggis was the Best Picture winner. Of its seven total nominations, it also won Original Screenplay and Film Editing.

It stands as one of the bigger upsets in the Academy’s history as it took gold over the heavily favored Brokeback Mountain by Ang Lee. He won Director and the cowboy romance also received Adapted Screenplay and Original Score. The other three nominees: Bennett Miller’s Capote (for which Philip Seymour Hoffman took Best Actor), George Clooney’s Good Night, and Good Luck, and Steven Spielberg’s Munich.

2005 was the rare year where the Director nominees matched perfectly with BP so we can’t pluck out other movies from that competition. A look at the other categories do give us clues as to the other features that might’ve gotten in.

James Mangold’s Cash couple biopic Walk the Line landed Joaquin Phoenix a Best Actor nod and Reese Witherspoon the Actress statue. With a total of five mentions, a Golden Globe victory in the Musical/Comedy race, and a Critics Choice slot, it’s pretty safe to assume it makes the ten.

Same goes for The Constant Gardner from Fernando Meirelles. Rachel Weisz took Supporting Actress and it received three other noms in addition to Golden Globe and Critics Choice inclusions.

Another Critics Choicer nominee, Rob Marshall’s Memoirs of a Geisha got 6 tech nods and won 3 (Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design). I went back and forth on this one, but ultimately decided it probably makes the dance.

A fourth Critics Choice match goes to Ron Howard’s Cinderella Man. The boxing drama could be left off. It missed some key nods including Russell Crowe’s lead performance (Paul Giamatti was nominated for supporting) and screenplay. I think it might have just snuck in at the bottom of hopefuls.

With one picture left to plug in, there’s plenty of contenders. Hustle & Flow saw a surprise win (for Three 6 Mafia) in Original Song and Terrence Howard made the Actor five. Woody Allen’s Match Point had a sole nom in Original Screenplay, but made the Globes cut in Drama. Joe Wright’s Pride & Prejudice rendering saw Keira Knightley up in Actress in addition to three other mentions.

Ultimately my final choice came to this trio. Peter Jackson’s King Kong went 3 for 4 on its tech inclusions (Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects). However, it was generally considered a bit of a disappointment at the box office and with some critics. That said, I almost picked it.

Syriana by Stephen Gaghan gave George Clooney a Supporting Actor Oscar and was up for Original Screenplay. Yet it failed to see a Critics Choice or Globe BP nod. Nevertheless I almost picked it.

I chose to go with David Cronenberg’s A History of Violence. It received two noms for Supporting Actor (William Hurt) and Original Screenplay and was a critical darling. I went with the Academy honoring a work from the acclaimed director (especially since most of his efforts are far from Oscar friendly).

That means my expanded 2005 ten consists of:

A History of Violence

Brokeback Mountain

Capote

Cinderella Man

The Constant Gardner

Crash

Good Night, and Good Luck

Memoirs of a Geisha

Munich

Walk the Line

I’ll have 2004 up in short order!

Dolittle Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (01/15): Revising prediction down to $22.3 million

Robert Downey Jr. can speak to animals in Dolittle, but will the film speak to family audiences when it opens next weekend? The pic takes the well known character (previously played by Rex Harrison and Eddie Murphy) and places him in a pricey $175 million budgeted adventure. Stephen Gaghan, known for directing the 2005 political thriller Syriana, is the rather surprising choice for behind the camera duties. Our marvelous cinematic Iron Man leads the human cast that also includes Harry Collett, Antonio Banderas, Michael Sheen, Jessie Buckley, and Jim Broadbent. Many familiar faces are responsible for voicing the animal cast. That list includes Emma Thompson, Rami Malek, John Cena, Kumail Nanjiani, Octavia Spencer, Tom Holland, Craig Robinson, Ralph Fiennes, Selena Gomez, and Marion Cotillard (four Oscar winners among them!).

Dolittle was slated to be released last spring before it underwent reportedly extensive reshoots. The release of a property like this with its budget and leading man in late January is a bit curious and perhaps concerning.

Opening over the long MLK weekend, Dolittle will be in a battle for first place with Bad Boys for Life. Gauging the box office prowess of Downey is tricky nowadays since he’s pretty much only been Tony Stark over the past several years (those movies sell themselves).

Family audiences have had plenty of titles to choose from in the past month including Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Spies in Disguise, and Jumanji: The Next Level. All three should bring in decent amounts of cash over the long frame. However, even with shaky buzz, Dolittle should hit mid to high 20s over the four days and north of $30 million is feasible. That puts it in second position based on my Bad Boys forecast or perhaps even third behind the second frame of 1917.

Dolittle opening weekend prediction: $22.3 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Bad Boys for Life prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/08/bad-boys-for-life-box-office-prediction/

Best Supporting Actor: A Look Back

Continuing on with my look back at the major categories from 1990 to the present at the Oscars, we arrive at Best Supporting Actor! If you missed my post regarding Supporting Actress, you can find it right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/20/best-supporting-actress-a-look-back/

As I did with that blog entry, I’m picking the top 3 least surprising winners (performers who essentially sailed right through awards season) and the 3 biggest upsets in each race. I am also selecting the strongest and weakest fields overall.

As a primer, here are the 28 actors whose support earned them a golden statue:

1990 – Joe Pesci, GoodFellas

1991 – Jack Palance, City Slickers

1992 – Gene Hackman, Unforgiven

1993 – Tommy Lee Jones, The Fugitive

1994 – Martin Landau, Ed Wood

1995 – Kevin Spacey, The Usual Suspects

1996 – Cuba Gooding Jr., Jerry Maguire

1997 – Robin Williams, Good Will Hunting

1998 – James Coburn, Affliction

1999 – Michael Caine, The Cider House Rules

2000 – Benicio del Toro, Traffic

2001 – Jim Broadbent, Iris

2002 – Chris Cooper, Adaptation

2003 – Tim Robbins, Mystic River

2004 – Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby

2005 – George Clooney, Syriana

2006 – Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine

2007 – Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men

2008 – Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

2009 – Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

2010 – Christian Bale, The Fighter

2011 – Christopher Plummer, Beginners

2012 – Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

2013 – Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

2014 – J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

2015 – Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

2016 – Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

2017 – Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 

There are plenty to choose from as far least surprising winners, but here’s my top ones:

3. Gene Hackman, Unforgiven

Clint Eastwood’s Western picked up a slew of awards on Oscar night and Hackman’s inclusion in that race was never really in doubt. It was his second statue after winning Best Actor 21 years previously for The French Connection.

2. Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

It was director Christopher Nolan giving numerous awards speeches on behalf of the late Ledger, as his work playing the iconic villain swept all precursors as well. This remains not only the only win in the omnipresent superhero genre in the 21st century, but the only nomination.

1. Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men

Like Ledger, Bardem created a bad guy for the ages in the Coen Brothers Oscar-winning picture. He picked up all the precursors as well for his role.

And now the upsets!

3. James Coburn, Affliction

There was clearly no front-runner in 1998 as a different actor was honored in each preceding awards show. Ed Harris took the Golden Globe for The Truman Show, Billy Bob Thornton (A Simple Plan) was victorious at the Critics Choice Awards, Robert Duvall’s role in A Civil Action was honored at SAG, and Geoffrey Rush (Elizabeth) was the BAFTA recipient. Surely one of them would win the Oscar, but it instead went to Mr. Coburn.

2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

In 2015, the general consensus was that Sylvester Stallone would punch out the competition in his signature role for Creed. That would have been quite a feat after Rocky took Best Picture in 1976 – nearly four decades prior. Yet it didn’t materialize when Rylance made the trip to the podium.

1. Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine

Along the same lines, Eddie Murphy was the strong favorite for his rare dramatic work in Dreamgirls. With Jennifer Hudson as a sure thing for Supporting Actress (which did happen), the musical looked safe for a supporting sweep. The Academy surprisingly went another route by honoring Arkin.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FiyVUPuvxU

And now to the fields overall and choosing a strongest and weakest. For the least impressive of the bunch, I’m going with 2011. Here were the nominees:

Christopher Plummer, Beginners (winner)

Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn

Jonah Hill, Moneyball

Nick Nolte, Warrior

Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

When it comes to best overall field, I chose 1993. This is the year that Tommy Lee Jones got the gold in The Fugitive. That’s a rare acting win for an action flick. It was deserved in my view and the other four nominees were very strong as well. They were:

Leonardo DiCaprio, What’s Eating Gilbert Grape

Ralph Fiennes, Schindler’s List

John Malkovich, In the Line of Fire

Pete Postlethwaite, In the Name of the Father

Furthermore, I could keep going with other deserving actors that year, including Val Kilmer in Tombstone and Sean Penn for Carlito’s Way. 

The next trip down memory lane will be Best Actress and it will be up soon!

The Best Picture Coulda Been Contenders: 1990-2008

In 2009, the Academy underwent a change in the number of Best Picture nominees honored each year. The rule change allowed a fluctuation of five to ten nominees per year, as opposed to a finite five (all other categories stayed at that number).

As has been discussed on this blog, many felt the change was triggered by 2008’s The Dark Knight, the critically acclaimed comic book pic that was also highest earner of the year. It failed to a garner a Best Picture nod and the thinking was that it was time for more popular options to make it into the mix.

Since the change, the magic number has been nine nominated pictures in most years. This got me thinking: what if that rule had been in effect during prior years? What movies that failed to get a nomination would have certainly made it?

That brings us here. I have gone back to 1990 through 2008 and I’m listing two films from each year that I am confident would have made the shortlist. In selecting each title, here were some of the key indicators. If a Director was nominated for his work and the film failed to get nominated, that probably means it would have been included. Additionally, the screenplay races are a decent predictor of some titles that might have made the magic nine (or eight or ten). For reference sake, I am including the five movies that did get nominated.

So here goes! Two features from 1990-2008 that coulda and likely woulda been contenders…

1990

The Actual Nominees: Dances with Wolves (Winner), Awakenings, Ghost, The Godfather Part III, GoodFellas

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: The Grifters, Reversal of Fortune

1991

The Actual Nominees: The Silence of the Lambs (W), Beauty and the Beast, Bugsy, JFK, The Prince of Tides

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Boyz N The Hood, Thelma & Louise

1992

The Actual Nominees: Unforgiven (W), The Crying Game, A Few Good Men, Howards End, Scent of a Woman

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Malcolm X, The Player

1993

The Actual Nominees: Schindler’s List (W), The Fugitive, In the Name of the Father, The Piano, The Remains of the Day

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Philadelphia, Short Cuts

1994

The Actual Nominees: Forrest Gump (W), Four Weddings and a Funeral, Pulp Fiction, Quiz Show, The Shawshank Redemption

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Bullets Over Broadway, Three Colors: Red

1995

The Actual Nominees: Braveheart (W), Apollo 13, Babe, Il Postino, Sense and Sensibility

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Dead Man Walking, Leaving Las Vegas

1996

The Actual Nominees: The English Patient (W), Fargo, Jerry Maguire, Secrets & Lies, Shine

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: The People Vs. Larry Flynt, Sling Blade

1997

The Actual Nominees: Titanic (W), As Good as It Gets, The Full Monty, Good Will Huinting, L.A. Confidential

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Boogie Nights, The Sweet Hereafter

1998

The Actual Nominees: Shakespeare in Love (W), Elizabeth, Life is Beautiful, Saving Private Ryan, The Thin Red Line

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Gods and Monsters, The Truman Show

1999

The Actual Nominees: American Beauty (W), The Cider House Rules, The Green Mile, The Insider, The Sixth Sense

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Being John Malkovich, Topsy-Turvy

2000

The Actual Nominees: Gladiator (W), Chocolat, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Erin Brockovich, Traffic

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Almost Famous, Billy Elliot

2001

The Actual Nominees: A Beautiful Mind (W), Gosford Park, In the Bedroom, Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Moulin Rouge!

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Black Hawk Down, Mulholland Drive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeevxJaJl1U

2002

The Actual Nominees: Chicago (W), Gangs of New York, The Hours, Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, The Pianist

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Far from Heaven, Talk to Her

2003

The Actual Nominees: Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (W), Lost in Translation, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Mystic River, Seabiscuit 

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: City of God, In America

2004

The Actual Nominees: Million Dollar Baby (W), The Aviator, Finding Neverland, Ray, Sideways

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Hotel Rwanda, Vera Drake

2005

The Actual Nominees: Crash (W), Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Good Night and Good Luck, Munich

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Syriana, Walk the Line

2006

The Actual Nominees: The Departed (W), Babel, Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Pan’s Labyrinth, United 93

2007

The Actual Nominees: No Country for Old Men (W), Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, There Will Be Blood

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Away from Her, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

2008

The Actual Nominees: Slumdog Millionaire (W), The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: The Dark Knight, Doubt

And there you have it! There will be a part II to this post. What if the rule change had never occurred? From 2009 until the present, what would have been the five nominated Pictures if only that number was allowed. Stay tuned…

 

2016: The Year of Viola Davis

After a number of smaller film roles in some notable pictures ranging from Out of Sight to Far From Heaven to Syriana, it was another smaller role that catapulted Viola Davis to the attention of moviegoers in 2008. Her one scene in Doubt alongside Meryl Streep and Amy Adams earned the actress a Supporting Actress Oscar nomination. She didn’t win, yet it furthered some more substantive roles including 2011’s The Help for which she received a Lead Actress Academy nod (losing to Streep in The Iron Lady).

Yet in 2016, the third time could well be the charm for Davis for her supporting work in Fences, in which she reprises her Broadway role with director/star Denzel Washington. It’s all part of a remarkable couple of years for Davis in which she deservedly gets a mention in my Year Of posts. Her work in Fences and expected Oscar win would come just a year after becoming the first African-American actress to win Lead Actress in a Drama Series at the Emmys for ABC’s “How to Get Away with Murder”. Davis also had a prominent role in this summer’s blockbuster Suicide Squad, portraying the government agent responsible for getting all those bad guys together.

Film and TV lovers have been noticing Viola Davis for some time now and 2016 may well prove to be the year where Oscar voters finally do.

My Year Of posts will continue…