Tag: Sylvester Stallone

Box Office Predictions: Thanksgiving 2013

It’s going to be a busy Turkey Day weekend at the box office as six new titles find their way into the multiplex. Disney’s Frozen, the action pic Homefront with Jason Statham and James Franco, and the musical ensemble Black Nativity open wide while The Book Thief expands to around 1000 theaters and Spike Lee’s Oldboy and the Judi Dench drama Philomena play to around 500 screens. Whew.

You can my individual prediction posts on each new picture here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/frozen-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/black-nativity-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/homefront-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/the-book-thief-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/oldboy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/philomena-box-office-prediction/

Typically, during Thanksgiving the leftovers have very small drops because audiences like to catch up during the holidays. The one exception should be The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. In its second weekend, the pic should easily lose more than half the crowd of its debut weekend. The last two Twilight flicks opened the same pre-Thanksgiving weekend and saw second week falls in the 70% range. I don’t have Games falling quite that far.

Since there are so many newbies this weekend, I’ll change my normal Top Five predictions to Top Ten. Here they are:

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $56.8 million (representing a drop of 64%)

2. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $48.3 million ($69.1 million for five-day opening)

3. Black Nativity

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million ($26.8 million for five-day opening)

4. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 32%)

5. Homefront

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million ($12.8 million for five-day opening)

6. The Best Man Holiday

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)

7. The Book Thief

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million ($7.2 million for five-day opening)

8. Delivery Man

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million (representing a drop of 30%)

9. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)

10. Philomena

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million ($5.1 million for five-day opening)

This means I am predicting Oldboy opens outside of the top ten with a $2.4 million Friday-to-Sunday opening tally and $3.5 million from Wednesday-to-Sunday.

I’ll have final results Sunday on the blog… have Turkey Day friends!

Homefront Box Office Prediction

The omnipresent James Franco is back in theaters again over the Thanksgiving weekend with Homefront, in which he plays a meth dealer dueling with a DEA agent played by Jason Statham. The film costars Winona Ryder and Kate Bosworth. Franco has been a busy man in 2013 with Oz the Great and Powerful, Spring Breakers, and This is the End. This is likely to be his least talked about picture.

While TV ads have been showing frequently for Homefront, I don’t see this doing a whole lotta business over the holiday frame. Recent Statham flicks have been met with lukewarm openings: 2011’s Killer Elite at $9.3M, 2012’s Safe with $7.8M, and this year’s Parker with $7 million. The screenplay is actually written by Sylvester Stallone, who once envisioned this as a starring vehicle for him. Reviews have been mostly negative so far.

The Thanksgiving time frame may allow Homefront slightly higher numbers than the last couple of Statham pics. Not much higher, though.

Homefront opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $12.8 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my prediction on Disney’s Frozen, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/frozen-box-office-prediction/

For my Black Nativity prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/black-nativity-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Book Thief, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/the-book-thief-box-office-prediction/

For my Oldboy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/oldboy-box-office-prediction/

For my Philomena prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/philomena-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: October 18-20

Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity held the top spot at the box office for the third weekend in a row as three new films posted disappointing results. The space thriller with Sandra Bullock and George Clooney continues to capture audiences as it took in $30 million in week 3. This is right there with my $29.7M projection. Gravity has grossed an astonishing $170 million so far and still has $300 million in its sights.

In its second weekend, Captain Phillips with Tom Hanks slid a fairly modest 35% for a $16.7 million gross, below my $18.5M projection. The Somali pirate saga is on pace to  cross the century mark and be Hanks’s highest live-action earner in four years since 2009’s Angels and Demons. 

Opening with less than expected numbers in third place is the horror remake Carrie. The update of 1976’s Brian De Palma’s classic grossed $16.3 million, well below my $22.4M estimate. On top of its lackluster debut, horror flicks tend to suffer large drop-offs in subsequent weekend so the future looks rather bleak for this one.

The animated sequel Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 continues to hang around in the top five as it made $10 million for the four spot. This is right on pace with my $9.3M projection.

Sylvester Stallone and Arnold Schwarzenegger saw their action fest Escape Plan open right on target with most projections in fifth place with a so-so $9.6 million, just below my $10.1M estimate. Clearly the two stars are no longer the draw they were in the 80s and 90s, but the pic did outdo the action stars solo entries from earlier this year The Last Stand and Bullet to the Head.

Finally, the Wikileaks drama The Fifth Estate starring Benedict Cumberbatch had a terrible opening with only $1.7 million, well under my what I thought was a modest $5.8M projection. The pic received many negative reviews and audiences simply ignored it.

That’s all for now, my friends. I’ll have predictions posts up later today for next weekend’s newbies, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa and The Counselor soon enough!

Box Office Predictions: October 18-20

The horror remake Carrie, the Stallone/Schwarzenegger action pic Escape Plan, and the Wikileaks drama The Fifth Estate all join the box office fray this weekend. You can find my predictions on all three at these links:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/carrie-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/escape-plan-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/the-fifth-estate-box-office-prediction/

Will any of them have any enough firepower to unseat Gravity from the #1 spot? As I see it, only Carrie stands a chance. However, I’m only putting it at a low 20s opening and that should not be enough to keep Alfonso Cuaron’s space phenomenon from the #1 perch for a third weekend. Captain Phillips with Tom Hanks scored a solid $25 million opening this past weekend and with an A Cinemascore grade, its second weekend decline should be small.

Based on my prediction for The Fifth Estate, it should open at #6 while Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 stays in the top five. And, with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Gravity

Predicted Gross: $29.7 million (representing a drop of 31%)

2. Carrie

Predicted Gross: $22.4 million

3. Captain Phillips

Predicted Gross: $18.5 million (representing a drop of 28%)

4. Escape Plan

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

5. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million (representing a drop of 32%)

I’ll have an update posted Saturday on the blog’s Facebook page with a final report Sunday on the blog!

Escape Plan Box Office Prediction

There was a time when an action flick starring Sylvester Stallone and Arnold Schwarzenegger would have been one of the most eagerly anticipated releases of the year. Those years were about 1985-1995.

Times have changed. And you need look no further than earlier this year for evidence of that. In January, Ah-nuld’s comeback vehicle The Last Stand sputtered with a terrible $6.2 million opening. One month later, the news was even worse for Sly when Bullet to the Head managed only a $4.5 million debut.

Will putting the aging action stars together make a difference? Probably not much of one. The trailers for the prison flick Escape Plan are nothing special. Then there’s the competition factor. Younger moviegoers likely have no desire to see these two guys together anyway and might be preoccupied with Carrie. Older moviegoers may be busy catching Gravity in its third weekend or Captain Phillips in its second.

If you added up to opening weekends of their last two pics, that would get you to $10.7 million. And that may be about where Escape Plan ends up.

Escape Plan opening weekend prediction: $10.1 million

For my Carrie box office prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/carrie-box-office-prediction/

For my The Fifth Estate prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/the-fifth-estate-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: October 11-13

Gravity continues to defy expectations as it had a remarkable hold in its second weekend. The Alfonso Cuaron space thriller with Sandra Bullock (whose Oscar buzz for this continues to grow) and George Clooney dipped only 21% in the sophomore frame with $44.3 million. This is above my $33.4M projection. Gravity is not just a hit… it’s turning into a phenomenon. In just ten days, it’s made $123 million. An eventual domestic gross of $250 million is not out of the question. To put it in perspective, the pic grossed more in its second weekend that I thought it would make with its opening.

Captain Phillips starring Tom Hanks provided a strong hit for the actor, who hasn’t seen many in the last half decade. Phillips debuted with $26 million, north of my $19.1M estimate. With a terrific A Cinemascore grade, expect this Captain to do well in subsequent weeks as its Oscar buzz also continues to build.

In third place in its third weekend, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 took in $14.2 million, right on target with my $14.3M projection. The animated sequel has earned a sturdy $78 million and looks like a safe bet to cross the century mark.

Landing with a thud in fourth place is Machete Kills. The Robert Rodriguez sequel starring Danny Trejo, Jessica Alba, Lady Gaga, Mel Gibson, and many more couldn’t capitalize on its star power as it made an awful $3.7 million. This is well below my what I thought was a meager $7.2 million estimate.

In the five spot was the bomb Runner Runner with Justin Timberlake and Ben Affleck which also made $3.7 million in week #2, right in line with my predicted $3.5M. Runner has made only $14 million in ten days and should struggle to reach $20M domestic.

Be sure to check the blog as the day rolls on as my predictions for next weekend’s trio of newbies comes in: the horror remake Carrie, the Stallone/Schwarzenegger action pic Escape Plan, and the Wikileaks drama The Fifth Estate.