Tag: Sydney Sweeney

March 22-24 Box Office Predictions

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire hopes to heat up the box office this weekend while Immaculate looks to bring in horror fans. My detailed prediction posts on the two newcomers can be accessed here:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Box Office Prediction
Immaculate Box Office Prediction

The fifth feature in the franchise, Empire will try to match or exceed the mid 40s earnings that 2016’s Ghostbusters and immediate predecessor Ghostbusters: Afterlife from 2021 achieved in their debuts. I have it a tad under in the low 40s for what will easily be a #1 start.

We are likely to witness a battle for second between holdovers Kung Fu Panda 4 and Dune: Part Two. I have each dipping in the mid to high 30s with the animated sequel barely edging the sci-fi sequel.

Immaculate is a genuine question mark. Neon’s supernatural fright fest stars Sydney Sweeney, who’s coming off the hot Anyone but You and also the cold Madame Web. It seems to be flying under the radar, but could over perform as the genre often does. My mid single digits take puts it firmly in fourth with the disappointing Arthur the King rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I think it will play out:

1. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

Predicted Gross: $42.7 million

2. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million

3. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $17.4 million

4. Immaculate

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Arthur the King

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

Box Office Results (March 15-17)

Kung Fu Panda 4 held the crown for the second weekend in a row with $30.1 million, right on target with my $30.6 million estimate. The two-week tally puts it over the century mark at $107 million as it continues to outpace part 3.

Dune: Part Two, as expected, had a nice hold in weekend #3 with $28.5 million. I was on pace with my $29.4 million forecast as its surpassed the double century mark with $204 million.

Mark Wahlberg’s canine tale Arthur the King failed to bring in audiences with only $7.6 million, well under my $12.5 million call. I’m expecting a sophomore drop over 50% this weekend.

Imaginary held better than I assumed with $5.5 million compared to my $4.4 million projection. The teddy bear themed horror pic stands at $19 million after two outings and that’s nearly double its budget.

Faith-based Cabrini plummeted 61% in weekend #2 with $2.8 million and that’s below my $4.1 million prediction. The total is $13 million.

Finally, Kristen Stewart’s critically acclaimed crime thriller Love Lies Bleeding had a fairly anemic wide rollout in sixth with $2.4 million (I said $3.7 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Immaculate Box Office Prediction

Sydney Sweeney is in Scream Queen mode when Immaculate is delivered to theaters on March 22nd. The fright fest finds the Euphoria, Anyone but You, and Madame Web star as a devout nun uncovering demonic happenings in the Italian countryside. Michael Mohan directs with a supporting cast including Álvaro Morte, Benedetta Porcaroli, Dora Romano, Giorgio Colangeli, and Simona Tabasco.

The Neon distributed effort is generating uneven reviews (it premiered at South by Southwest earlier this week). The RT meter stands at 64%. I haven’t seen a screen count and the marketing campaign seems a bit on the underwhelming side.

Horror can exceed expectations and that might hold true with Immaculate. Yet I wonder if this can manage the $9M+ that The Pope’s Exorcist achieved for its start last year. It might be lucky to earn half of that.

Immaculate opening weekend prediction: $4.9 million

For my Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire prediction, click here:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Box Office Prediction

Madame Web Box Office Prediction

Dakota Johnson headlines as the title character in Madame Web, Sony’s fourth feature in their Spider-Man Universe on February 14th. The studio is hoping its grosses are closer to Venom and its sequel than Morbius. S.J. Clarkson directs with a supporting cast including Sydney Sweeney (hot off Anyone but You), Celeste O’Connor, Isabela Merced, and Tahar Rahim.

Ms. Johnson is no stranger to the Valentine’s Day/President’s Day weekend frame considering the Fifty Shades trilogy. Web will attempt to bring in a female contingent, but also a sizable male crowd craving some comic book action.

Debuting on Wednesday, my forecast includes the Friday to Monday long weekend projection along with its two extra days. A best case scenario might be in the $35-40 million neighborhood for the six-day total. I’m skeptical it gets that high. A low to mid 20s start for the four-day and high 20s to low 30s range over the longer haul sounds likelier.

Madame Web opening weekend prediction: $21.5 million (Friday to Monday); $30.7 million (Wednesday to Monday)

For my Bob Marley: One Love prediction, click here:

Bob Marley: One Love Box Office Prediction

December 22-25 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (12/21): I am increasing my The Color Purple one-day projection from $7.9M to $12.9M

With Christmas falling on a Monday this year, this is one of the most jam packed Yuletide box office seasons in memory. There’s a whole bunch of cinematic gifts that studios hope open well. On Friday (December 22), Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom looks to top the charts and reverse the misfortunes of the DCU in 2023. Joining Aquaman for the long weekend are Illumination Entertainment’s animated Migration, wrestling biopic The Iron Claw with Zac Efron, Indian Telugu-language action epic Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire, Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell’s rom com Anyone but You, and the nationwide expansion of Oscar hopeful Poor Things with Emma Stone. On Christmas Day, they are joined by The Color Purple (adapting the Broadway musical which adapted the 1985 Spielberg pic which adapted the acclaimed novel), Michael Mann’s Ferrari with Adam Driver, and the George Clooney directed Olympic period piece The Boys in the Boat. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all nine (yes, nine) right here:

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Box Office Prediction
Migration Box Office Prediction
The Iron Claw Box Office Prediction
Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire Box Office Prediction
Anyone but You Box Office Prediction
Poor Things Box Office Prediction
The Color Purple Box Office Prediction
Ferrari Box Office Prediction
The Boys in the Boat Box Office Prediction

Even Aquaman himself, Jason Momoa, recently stated in an interview that the future of the franchise is murky at best. Despite the 2018 original making over a billion bucks worldwide, expectations for the sequel are underwater after the DCU’s year that included flops Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle. The worst case scenario is that this opens second to Wonka. On the bright side: Warner Bros gets the #1 slot either way. A low to mid 40s beginning from Friday to Monday is nothing to brag about, but that should get it to first place.

Wonka got off to a pretty sweet start at the top of its anticipated range (more on that below). Since I’m doing predictions from December 22-25, it may only decline from the high 30s to the mid to high 20s with bright weekends ahead (especially over New Year’s).

Therefore Wonka might be the family choice over Christmas and that could put Migration in third with a high teens or low 20s output. For Illumination, the silver lining should be small declines in subsequent frames.

I’m expecting a fourth place finish for The Iron Claw as wrestling fans could turn out to the tune of high single digits.

As for the three features out on Christmas Day, this obviously means I’m only doing a one-day projection. The Color Purple, with its well-known source material, should do best among that trio and I have its single day managing a fifth place showing.

Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire could over perform, but I have it in ninth. The newcomers should dominate the top ten as I have Anyone but You in sixth with the Poor Things expansion in seventh.

I do have holdovers The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes and Trolls Band Together finishing out the top ten.

That means my single day estimates for Ferrari ($2.1 million) and The Boys in the Boat ($1.1 million) leave them outside the top ten.

Truth be told, this is a highly unpredictable Christmas weekend with lots of moving parts. Here’s my best attempt at that top 10 and keep in mind that this is for Friday-Monday:

1. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $42.8 million

2. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $31.4 million

3. Migration

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

4. The Color Purple

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

5. The Iron Claw

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

6. Anyone but You

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

7. Poor Things

Predicted Gross: $5 million

8. Salaar: Part One – Ceasefire

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

9. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

10. Trolls Band Together

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

Box Office Results (December 15-17)

Warner Bros might face choppy waters ahead with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, but the Wonka opening went swimmingly. Timothee Chalamet’s take on the iconic chocolatier was treated to a $39 million start. That’s slightly ahead of my $36.4 million prediction as the family pic should have a robust road ahead this season.

It was the only newcomer this past weekend (which makes sense considering the onslaught ahead). The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes stayed put in second with $5.8 million, a smidge under my $6.6 million call. The prequel is up to $145 million after five weekends.

The Boy and the Heron, after its better than anticipated bow, dropped from 1st to 3rd with $5.5 million. That’s lower than my $7 million forecast as the ten-day take is $23 million.

Godzilla Minus One was fourth with $5 million (I said $5.7 million) for $34 million after three weeks.

Trolls Band Together rounded out the top five with $3.9 million compared to my $4.6 million projection. The threequel is approaching nine figures after five weeks with $88 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Have a wonderful holiday and until next time…

Anyone but You Box Office Prediction

Sony is banking on rom com fans making a holiday trek to Anyone but You when it debuts December 22nd. A modern take on Shakespeare’s Much Ado About Nothing, Will Gluck directs Sydney Sweeney (of Euphoria fame) and Glen Powell (of Top Gun: Maverick fame). Costars include Alexandra Shipp, GaTa, Hadley Robinson, Michelle Hurd, Dermot Mulroney, Rachel Griffiths, and Bryan Brown.

The studio has been heavily promoting their product, but Sweeney and Powell (despite their previous high profile projects) aren’t exactly known to open a picture. Barring an unexpectedly heavy female turnout, this should struggle out of the gate. From its Friday start through Monday (Christmas Day), the best case scenario is probably $10 million. Mid single digits seems more likely.

Anyone but You opening weekend prediction: $5.3 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Box Office Prediction

For my Migration prediction, click here:

Migration Box Office Prediction

For my The Iron Claw prediction, click here:

The Iron Claw Box Office Prediction

For my Poor Things prediction, click here:

Poor Things Box Office Prediction

For my The Color Purple prediction, click here:

The Color Purple Box Office Prediction

For my Ferrari prediction, click here:

Ferrari Box Office Prediction

For my The Boys in the Boat prediction, click here:

The Boys in the Boat Box Office Prediction

For my Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire prediction, click here:

Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire Box Office Prediction