Tag: superman

79th BAFTA Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 79th BAFTAs were unveiled five days after the Academy revealed their list. The Brits equivalent of the Oscars can often indicate which nominees and pictures are (or aren’t) having momentum in the general awards space.

Overall I went 92 for 122 (75%) in the feature-length categories. Let’s walk through each race with the hopefuls in contention, how I did, and some initial thoughts.

Best Film

Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

No surprise here as One Battle led all nominees with 14 and Sinners right behind with 13. It will probably come down to those two pics with Battle having an edge. I would say Hamnet is a spoiler but it missed some key races.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

The best film five and Lanthimos as I predicted. PTA is the favorite.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

How I Did: 5/6

I gotta stop leaving out Kate Hudson. She’s in over my upset selection of Andrea Riseborough (Dragonfly). Bet on Buckley.

Best Actor

Robert Aramayo (I Swear), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

How I Did: 5/6

Aramayo gets in over Pillion‘s Harry Melling. Chalamet could continue his sweep unless DiCaprio or Hawke upset.

Best Supporting Actress

Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Carey Mulligan (The Ballad of Wallis Island), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Emily Watson (Hamnet)

How I Did: 5/6

A genuine surprise as Amy Madigan (Weapons) is left out in favor of Mulligan. This is likely between Lilleass and Taylor.

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Peter Mullan (I Swear), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

How I Did: 5/6

I had Stellan’s son Alexander Skarsgård (Pillion) joining the sextet and not Mullan. It’s Stellan who probably has the best odds.

Best Original Screenplay

I Swear, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

The Secret Agent over Blue Moon. This is a Value v. Sinners derby.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bugonia, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Pillion

How I Did: 4/5

Ballad over Frankenstein with OBAA out front.

Best Animated Feature

Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 1/3

I whiffed here. First of all, this race typically has four nominees. I had Arco, Demon Slayer, and KPop Demon Hunters and not Elio or Amélie (which was frankly an oversight on my part). It could win and so could Zootopia 2 which is the only flick I correctly called.

Best Documentary

Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, 2000 Meters to Andrivka

How I Did: 4/5

Some retribution after my 1/5 showing at the Oscars. I had Ocean with David Attenborough and not Cover-Up. I wouldn’t assume Neighbor takes this even though it’s the Oscar frontrunner. I actually think all five are viable.

Best Film Not in the English Language

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

This matches the Academy’s quintet and, like that show, this is probably Agent or Value.

Best Casting

I Swear, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 3/5

Hamnet (in a notable miss) or Sirāt are out with I Swear and Supreme in. A likely Sinners trophy.

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

How I Did: 4/5

Frankenstein and not Hamnet in another interesting omission. I’ll note this is the only nom for Train Dreams as this should come down to Battle or Sinners.

Best Costume Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 4/5

Unlike Oscar, Wicked managed to get some BAFTA attention (albeit limited). I had Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale and not Supreme (which had a solid day). Frankenstein may take this.

Best Editing

F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 3/5

Another Battle/Sinners race as F1 and Dynamite show up over Bugonia and (you guessed it) Hamnet.

Best Make Up and Hair

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 3/5

A strange quintet as Hamnet gets an unexpected mention as does Supreme and not One Battle or (more surprisingly) The Smashing Machine. This should go to Frankenstein.

Best Original Score

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

Sinners is the frontrunner.

Best Production Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 3/5

I had Bugonia and Wicked instead of Marty and Battle. Another probable win for Frankenstein.

Best Sound

F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare

How I Did: 3/5

Frankenstein/Warfare over Avatar: Fire and Ash/Wicked. Think Sinners with F1 spoiler possibility.

Best Special Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, How to Train Your Dragon, The Lost Bus

How I Did: 4/5

Dragon, not Superman as Avatar is ahead.

Outstanding British Film

28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Die, My Love, Hamnet, H is for Hawk, I Swear, Mr. Burton, Pillion, Steve

How I Did: 7/10

I went with Ballad of a Small Player, The Choral, and Warfare over Jones, Burton, and Steve. One would think Hamnet takes this though I Swear is viable as an upset pick.

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer

The Ceremony, My Father’s Shadow, Pillion, A Want in Her, Wasteman

How I Did: 3/5

Ceremony/Want over Oceans with David Attenborough and Urchin. Pillion should win.

Best Children’s + Family Film

Arco, Boong, Lilo + Stitch, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 2/4

Grow and How to Train Your Dragon miss and not Boong and Lilo with Zootopia out front.

That works out to the following movies getting these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another

13 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominatons

Hamnet, Marty Supreme

8 Nominations

Frankenstein, Sentimental Value

5 Nominations

Bugonia, I Swear

3 Nominations

The Ballad of Wallis Island, F1, Pillion

2 Nominations

The Secret Agent, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Cover-Up, Blue Moon, Boong, The Ceremony, Die, My Love, Elio, H is for Hawk, A House of Dynamite, How to Train Your Dragon, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, Lilo & Stitch, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, Mr. Burton, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, The Perfect Neighbor, Sirāt, Song Sung Blue, Steve, Train Dreams, The Voice of Hind Rajab, A Want in Her, Warfare, Wasteman

The BAFTAs air February 22nd and you can expect a recap on the blog when that happens.

79th BAFTA Nominations Predictions

Nominations for the 79th BAFTAs (the British equivalent of the Oscars) are out tomorrow prior to the February 22nd ceremony hosted by Alan Cumming. Unlike previous years, BAFTA nods are hitting after the Academy’s picks which were out last week.

For a blogger who concentrates primarily on the Oscar derby, it makes this announcement a tad anticlimactic since I’m not weighing them against what I anticipate will occur on Oscar nom morning. Nevertheless I’m giving you my forecast for all feature-length races with an alternate named in each. For the directing and acting competitions, BAFTA goes with six nominees. For Outstanding British Film, it is ten. There are four in Animated Film and Children’s & Family Film. In all others (including Best Film), we’re talking five. Got all that? Good. Let’s get to it!

Best Film

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Alternate – Bugonia

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Alternate – Kaouther Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajab

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Andrea Riseborough, Dragonfly

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Alternate – Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Harry Melling, Pillion

Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

Alternate – Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Best Supporting Actress

Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Emily Watson, Hamnet

Alternate – Brenda Blethyn, Dragonfly

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Alexander Skarsgård, Pillion

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Alternate – Andrew Scott, Blue Moon

Best Original Screenplay

Blue Moon

I Swear

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Alternate – It Was Just an Accident

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Pillion

Alternate – Train Dreams

Best Animated Film

Arco

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle

KPop Demon Hunters

Zootopia 2

Alternate – Elio

Best Documentary

Apocalypse in the Tropics

Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Ocean with David Attenborough

The Perfect Neighbor

2000 Meters to Andrivka

Alternate – Becoming Led Zeppelin

Best Film Not in the English Language

It Was Just an Accident

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sirāt

The Voice of Hind Rajab

Alternate – No Other Choice

Best Casting

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Sirāt

Alternate – Marty Supreme

Best Cinematography

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Train Dreams

Alternate – Frankenstein

Best Costume Design

Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Marty Supreme

Best Editing

Bugonia

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Alternate – F1

Best Make Up & Hair

Frankenstein

One Battle After Another

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Bugonia

Best Original Score

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Alternate – Marty Supreme

Best Production Design

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – One Battle After Another

Best Sound

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Best Special Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

Frankenstein

The Lost Bus

Superman

Alternate – Wicked: For Good

Outstanding British Film

28 Years Later

Ballad of a Small Player

The Ballad of Wallis Island

The Choral

Die, My Love

Hamnet

H is for Hawk

I Swear

Pillion

Warfare

Alternate – Steve

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer

My Father’s Shadow

Ocean with David Attenborough

Pillion

Urchin

Wasteman

Alternate – The Ceremony

Best Children’s & Family Film

Arco

Grow

How to Train Your Dragon

Zootopia 2

Alternate – Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

That works out to these movies nabbing these numbers in terms of nominations:

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another

13 Nominations

Hamnet, Sinners

8 Nominations

Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Marty Supreme

5 Nominations

Pillion

4 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

2 Nominations

Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, F1, I Swear, Ocean with David Attenborough, Sirāt, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

Apocalypse in the Tropics, Ballad of a Small Player, The Ballad of Wallis Island, The Choral, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Die, My Love, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, Dragonfly, Grow, H is for Hawk, How to Train Your Dragon, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, KPop Demon Hunters, The Lost Bus, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Train Dreams, 28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Urchin, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Warfare, Wasteman, Weapons

98th Academy Awards Nominations Reaction

After months of forecasting and scores of individual posts on the movies vying for the attention of Oscar voters, nominations for the 98th Academy Awards were unveiled this morning. The ceremony airs March 15th with Conan O’Brien returning to host.

There is an undeniable headline in that Sinners shattered the record for most noms ever with 16. The previous holders of that title were a three-way tie between All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land at 14 apiece. Even without a new race (Casting), Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale still would have broken the record. It is a remarkable achievement that could change the narrative in Best Picture (and others).

A secondary headline? The complete shutout of Wicked: For Good. Its predecessor from just a year ago landed 10 nominations. No one had it goose egging. I had it marked for four mentions and at one time weeks ago, I think I had it landing 10.

Overall I went 87 out of 110 in my feature-length projections (or 79%). Documentary Feature, as it has before, was the bane of my prognosticating existence while Visual Effects also tripped me up.

Some quick fun facts: Stellan Skarsgård is (somehow) the first Supporting Actor contender from a foreign film. The BP nod for One Battle After Another gives Leonardo DiCaprio his 12th BP hopeful. That ties with a record with his This Boy’s Life and Killers of the Flower Moon costar Robert De Niro.

In a second, we’ll walk through each race with some initial thoughts and how I did. First – a reminder that my Case Of posts will be arriving on the blog in short order. As readers may recall, I do individual posts on each Best Picture contender and the 25 hopefuls in Director and the four acting derbies. With each write-up, I give the case for their victory and against it along with a verdict. Those posts will start with the 10 BP nominees and then alternate alphabetically between the directing and acting personnel.

Best Picture

Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams

How I Did: 9/10

F1, my 2nd runner-up, makes the cut over It Was Just an Accident. My Case Of posts will delve deeper, but I do believe Sinners is now a strong possibility to win in a showdown with fellow Warner Bros release One Battle After Another.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

How I Did: 4/5

Runner-up Trier is in over Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident). Like BP, this should be between PTA (Battle) and Coogler (Sinners). The former probably has an edge even if Sinners manages the BP victory.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

How I Did: 4/5

Hudson lands her second nomination 25 years after her supporting nod for Almost Famous. I went with Chase Infiniti for Battle. Buckley is the frontrunner.

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

The expected quintet materializes with Chalamet hoping the third time is the charm.

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

How I Did: 4/5

Taylor might be the favorite. However, if Sinners takes BP, I wouldn’t sleep on Mosaku. And I’m saying that having not predicted her though she was my runner-up. I had Marty Supreme‘s Odessa A’Zion in her place. There’s Madigan to consider as well as the Sentimental actresses should vote split.

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

How I Did: 4/5

Lindo is in over Paul Mescal as Hamnet had a couple high profile omissions. Penn may be the only one without a convincing win narrative and this could come down to the wire.

Best Original Screenplay

Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

Moon, which I didn’t list as either of my runner-ups, is in over The Secret Agent. Value is viable though Sinners is the safer bet.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

The five Adapted works from BP are in. A pretty easy call for Battle.

Best International Feature Film

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

How I Did: 4/5

Second runner-up Rajab instead of No Other Choice, which was blanked. This is a fascinating category as Agent vs. Value could be the showdown.

Best Animated Feature

Arco, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

This has been the anticipated lineup for several weeks with KPop in the pole position.

Best Documentary Feature

The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor

How I Did: 1/5 (ugh)

The Doc race strikes again and hurts my numbers. I only had Neighbor (the frontrunner… I guess) correctly named as I went with Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, and 2000 Meters to Andrivka.

Best Casting

Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

Hamnet (my runner-up) instead of Frankenstein. This should also come down to Battle v. Sinners and I’m leaning toward the latter.

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

How I Did: 4/5

Marty Supreme (my runner-up) instead of Hamnet (another notable miss). A broken record as this is also between Battle and Sinners.

Best Costume Design

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

A genuine shocker with Avatar in. Its two predecessors didn’t even make this category. I had Wicked: For Good instead (get used to hearing that). Frankenstein is out front, but a Sinners over performance could happen.

Best Film Editing

F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

Value instead of Hamnet. Once again, Battle or Sinners.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Frankenstein, Kokuho, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, The Ugly Stepsister

How I Did: 4/5

2nd runner-up Stepsister is in contention over Wicked. Frankenstein shouldn’t have any trouble here.

Best Original Score

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

Bugonia, which I didn’t list in the runners-up, over Sirāt. This is likely to be a Sinners prize.

Best Original Song

“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless, “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters, “I Lied to You” from Sinners, “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!, “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

How I Did: 4/5

The Verdi! is very much an unexpected inclusion. I had “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light. I’ll also note neither shortlisted Wicked track made it. Unless the Academy decides to finally honor Diane Warren in a competitive race or a Sinners sweep happens, KPop should be golden.

Best Production Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

Runner-Up Battle over (you got it) Wicked. Another potential W for Frankenstein.

Best Sound

F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt

How I Did: 4/5

Runner-up Frankenstein instead of Avatar. This could be between F1 and Sinners with Sirāt as an upset possibility.

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, Sinners

How I Did: 2/5 (ugh)

Like Documentary, the VE voters can be unpredictable and they went with Jurassic (first nod in the franchise since 1997’s The Lost World), Bus, and Sinners (getting that historic 16th mention) over Frankenstein, Superman, and (say it with me!) Wicked. The winner isn’t hard to project as Avatar looks to go 3 for 3.

Besides the aforementioned Wicked and No Other Choice, two other notable pics that you won’t find among the nominees are Jay Kelly and The Testament of Ann Lee.

Here is how the nominations did shake out:

16 Nominations (!)

Sinners

13 Nominations

One Battle After Another

9 Nominations

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value

8 Nominations

Hamnet

4 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, KPop Demon Hunters, Sirāt

1 Nomination

The Alabama Solution, Arco, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Jurassic World Rebirth, Kokuho, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Song Sung Blue, The Ugly Stepsister, Viva Verdi!, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Weapons, Zootopia 2

Keep an eye out for the Case Of posts as we march toward final predictions in March!

98th Academy Awards Predictions: January 13th Edition

It has been nearly a month (!) since my last Oscar predictions on December 17th and a whole lotta activity has happened since. The Critics Choice and Golden Globe Awards aired. SAG Actor noms and BAFTA long lists were unveiled. The Directors and Producers Guild gave us their contenders. And we arrive at my penultimate picks for the 98th Academy Awards. You can expect my final predictions on Sunday or Monday.

So what’s changed since the week before Christmas? Well, you have to read below for that!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (E)

12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Sirāt (PR: 13) (E)

14. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

15. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)

5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Oliver Laxe, Sirāt (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Clint Bentley, Train Dreams

Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)

10. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 6) (-1)

8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

10. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Weapons (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-3)

10. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nuremberg (PR: 8) (E)

9. Pillion (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Hedda

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Sirāt (PR: 4) (E)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)

8. Belén (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)

10. All That’s Left of You (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The President’s Cake

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. Scarlet (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Endless Cookie (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (+1)

4. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Seeds (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 10) (E)

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Sirāt (PR: 9) (E)

10. Weapons (PR: 10) (E)

Bst Cinematography

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sirāt (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)

10. F1 (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hedda (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Sirāt

No Other Choice

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Kokuho (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Alto Knights (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nuremberg (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sirāt (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Our Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Drive” from F1

“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Phoenician Scheme

Hedda

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1 (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sirāt (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)

10. Superman (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Superman (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Lost Bus (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilties:

6. Sinners (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Electric State (PR: 10) (E)

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another

13 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Frankenstein, Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Marty Supreme

5 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

3 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, Sirāt

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters

1 Nomination

Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kokuho, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2

31st Critics Choice Awards Winner Predictions

This Sunday, January 4th, the 31st Critics’ Choice Awards air on E! and USA (with return host Chelsea Handler) and they should provide the first glimpse of various future Oscar winners even before nominations come out. The Best Picture winner at CCA has matched the Academy’s 6 out of the past 10 years including the last 3 in a row. As of late, the acting winners match at about a 3 for 4 ratio.

What’s the main storyline in my estimation? I believe there’s a Warner Bros showdown in BP between One Battle After Another and Sinners (that same logic applies to Director). The former from Paul Thomas Anderson appears to be the frontrunner, but I wouldn’t be surprised if CCA honored Ryan Coogler’s vampiric saga. It’s a close call though I’m going with the safer bet.

Let’s walk through each category with a winner and runner-up selection and some brief commentary.

Best Picture

Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, Wicked: For Good

Winner: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

See above

Best Director

Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

See above

Best Actress

Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

It is generally assumed that Buckley is the easiest pick of the acting quartet to forecast and that she is poised to sweep through the season. This is where it should begin. If there is a threat, watch out for Reinsve or Byrne.

Winner: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Best Actor

Nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

DiCaprio could take this and I wouldn’t totally discount Hawke or Moura for the upset. However, the smart money is on Chalamet to triumph and potentially run the table.

Winner: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

This is a tough one. I suspect the Sentimental performers will cancel each other out and Mosaku is unlikely. CCA could actually honor Grande and I think she has a stronger shot here than with the Academy. Taylor is arguably the soft Oscar frontrunner and this show could kick off a sweep. Yet I’m going with veteran Madigan for her Halloween costume inspiring work in Weapons.

Winner: Amy Madigan, Weapons

Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

Another challenging selection as the voters could easily make this is a Sentimental victory for Skarsgård. It’s tempting to pick him, but I’m rolling with del Toro’s performance that inspired many a meme.

Winner: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Sorry, Baby, Weapons

Another possibility for Value though Sinners should nab this one as it doesn’t have to go up against studio competitor Battle.

Winner: Sinners

Runner-Up: Sentimental Value

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams

This is an easy call for Battle with Hamnet as the only potential spoiler.

Winner: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Foreign Language Film

Nominees: Belén, It Was Just an Accident, Left-Handed Girl, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sirât

CCA has a rule that if a film is nominated for BP, it doesn’t get on the ballot for this race (the same rule applies to Best Comedy). That’s why you won’t find Sentimental Value here. Accident is the favorite though I’m tempted to go with an upset since this marks its sole nod (not making Director or screenplay). Choice and Agent could win. Once again I’ll play it safe.

Winner: It Was Just an Accident

Runner-Up: No Other Choice

Best Comedy

Nominees: The Ballad of Wallis Island, Eternity, Friendship, The Naked Gun, The Phoenician Scheme, Splitsville

A dark horse pick like Friendship is within the realm of possibility and Phoenician is doable. That said, The Naked Gun remake got some deserved credit for bringing the laugh-a-minute spoof genre back and it might be rewarded for that.

Winner: The Naked Gun

Runner-Up: The Phoenician Scheme

Best Animated Feature

Nominees: Arco, Elio, In Your Dreams, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

I would argue that noms came out before Zootopia 2 turned into a massive box office juggernaut which gave it a better chance to win. The cultural juggernaut that is KPop probably would be my pick regardless.

Winner: KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: Zootopia 2

Best Casting and Ensemble

Nominees: Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

Another showdown between Battle and Sinners and I’m going with the same result as BP.

Winner: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Young Actor/Actress

Nominees: Everett Blunck (The Plague), Miles Caton (Sinners), Cary Christopher (Weapons), Shannon Mahina Gorman (Rental Family), Jacobi Jupe (Hamnet), Nina Ye (Left-Handed Girl)

Caton’s work in Sinners should emerge though Jupe could threaten.

Winner: Miles Caton, Sinners

Runner-Up: Jacobi Jupe, Hamnet

Best Cinematography

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

Sinners with Battle right behind.

Winner: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Costume Design

Nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Hedda, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

The CCA throwing a bone to Wicked is a possibility. The safer pick is Frankenstein.

Winner: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good

Best Editing

Nominees: F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Sinners

The biggest story here was the surprise inclusion of documentary The Perfect Neighbor. It won’t take the prize that should be reserved for Battle with F1 or Sinners as remote chance spoilers.

Winner: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: F1

Best Hair and Makeup

Nominees: 28 Years Later, Frankenstein, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, Weapons, Wicked: For Good

This is the easiest race to pick Frankenstein in.

Winner: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good

Best Production Design

Nominees: The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

If Sinners exceeds expectations, it could take this. So could Wicked under the bone throwing scenario I posited in Costume Design. Again – bet on Frankenstein.

Winner: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good

Best Score

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

This one represents another battle between Battle and Sinners though the latter should triumph here.

Winner: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Song

Nominees: “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee; “Drive” from F1; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

The Sinners track is viable but the omnipresent “Golden” is likelier.

Winner: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: “I Lied to You” from Sinners

Best Stunt Design

Nominees: Ballerina, F1, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare

This would appear to be a pretty obvious occasion to honor Mr. Cruise and his team.

Winner: Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Runner-Up: F1

Best Sound

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirât, Warfare

I’m going with a slight upset. F1 is likely the smart play, but I’m saying CCA will give another race to Sinners.

Winner: Sinners

Runner-Up: F1

Best Visual Effects

Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Superman

This is Avatar‘s sole nom. It still shouldn’t have any problem winning.

Winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Runner-Up: Frankenstein

That means I’m projecting that these movies will generate these numbers of wins:

6 Wins

One Battle After Another

5 Wins

Sinners

3 Wins

Frankenstein

2 Wins

KPop Demon Hunters

1 Win

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Naked Gun, Weapons

Look for a recap of the ceremony with my thoughts and results on how I performed!

98th Academy Awards Predictions: December 17th Edition

This week’s biggest announcement about the Oscars in general is that the telecast is moving to YouTube in 2029. The most notable development for the 98th ceremony was the release of the shortlists. There are several categories slimmed down from anywhere to 10-20 possibilities – International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, the new Casting race, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, Sound, and Visual Effects.

We have winners and losers to discuss from those contenders. The Testament of Ann Lee was blanked and it was expected to show up in competitions like Cinematography and the musical fields. Jay Kelly underperformed. It made the list of 20 Score hopefuls, but it didn’t get into Casting (where I’ve had it predicted for a nomination). The Lee and Kelly struggles are enough for me to drop Amanda Seyfried (Lee) from my Actress five and Adam Sandler (Kelly) from my Supporting Actor quintet. Both could still make it, but I’m more skeptical. The beneficiaries are Emma Stone (Bugonia) and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) as they return to their lineups. I am now also giving the 2nd Netflix BP slot to Train Dreams instead of Kelly. In Best Actor, however, I’m dropping Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams from my five in favor of Michael B. Jordan in Sinners.

On the other hand, Wicked: For Good landed 8 shortlist mentions (tying with Sinners). Does that help its chances for a BP nom where I dropped it out of my 10 six days ago? That’s arguable. I’d certainly say it doesn’t hurt and I toyed with putting it back in. As you’ll see, it’s almost there in 11th.

It was also a banner day for Sirât, the Spanish drama that landed a surprise 5 shortlist mentions. I’m not projecting it though the idea of the film getting a BP nod is not out of the question.

The other news earlier this week was the review embargo lifting for Avatar: Fire and Ash. For the most part, it is being called the weakest of the trilogy. I’d say its fortunes took a tumble in BP though it’s still in the conversation.

Let’s take a look at all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Train Dreams (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

14. No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)

15. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)

5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Adam Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

10. Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (-1)

9. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Weapons (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nuremberg (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Hedda (PR: 8) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sirât (PR: 5) (+1)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)

8. Belén (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Endless Cookie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Scarlet (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Boys Go to Jupiter

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (E)

5. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Alabama Solution (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Seeds (PR: 8) (E)

9. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk

Orwell 2 + 2 = 5

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Blue Moon

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bugonia (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hedda (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Snow White

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kokuho (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Alto Knights (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

28 Years Later

Weapons

Wolf Man

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirât (PR: 9) (+3)

7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Drive” from F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Warfare

The Testament of Ann Lee

Marty Supreme

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tron: Ares (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Electric State (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Mickey 17

How to Train Your Dragon

And that leaves these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Sinners

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Frankenstein, Sentimental Value

8 Nominations

Marty Supreme

6 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent

3 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, Train Dreams

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Come See Me in the Good Light, KPop Demon Hunters

1 Nomination

Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2

83rd Golden Globe Awards Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 83rd Golden Globe Awards were unveiled this morning with some surprises and other categories generally going as planned. As expected and as I projected, One Battle After Another (the unquestionable Oscar frontrunner for Best Picture) led the nominations count with 9 followed by Sentimental Value with 8, Sinners with 7, and Hamnet with 6. All of those pics have likely punched their Academy BP ticket.

While it was a good day for them, you can’t say the same for Wicked: For Good, Jay Kelly, and some others. Overall I went 78 for 92 in my predictions (about par for the course). Let’s walk through each category with the nominees and how I did with some quick commentary.

Motion Picture – Drama

Nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

The expected six with an international flavor as three of the nominees are surefire hopefuls for Best International Feature at the Oscars (Accident, Agent, Value). The winner, however, should come down to Hamnet or Sinners.

Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Nominees: Blue Moon, Bugonia, Marty Supreme, No Other Choice, Nouvelle Vague, One Battle After Another

How I Did: 3/6

First things first – Battle is likely going to emerge victorious. As far as the contenders, Jay Kelly missing was a legit shocker and the same could be said for Wicked: For Good. I had them in along with The Testament of Ann Lee instead of Choice and the one-two directorial combo of Blue Moon and Nouvelle Vague from Richard Linklater.

Director

Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

How I Did: 5/6

Mr. del Toro makes the sextet instead of Josh Safdie, whose Marty Supreme had a less than anticipated showing with 3 nods. Anderson is the favorite though I wouldn’t discount Coogler or Panahi.

Actress – Drama

Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Julia Roberts (After the Hunt), Tessa Thompson (Hedda), Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby)

How I Did: 5/6

Victor is in over my somewhat upset pick of Jodie Foster in A Private Life. This is one of the easiest to predict with Buckley.

Actor – Drama

Nominees: Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein), Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Not as easy to predict as Actress (Drama) with the Oscar heavy hitters in Actor slotted in Musical or Comedy. This could be a close one between Jordan and Moura.

Actress – Musical or Comedy

Nominees: Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

The expected six, but this is a tough one to call. Precursors may help with my eventual prediction though I’d say everyone but Hudson at least has a chance here. Byrne is perhaps the soft frontrunner.

Actor – Musical or Comedy

Nominees: Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), George Clooney (Jay Kelly), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

How I Did: 5/6

My alternate Byung-hun over Brendan Fraser (Rental Family). Like the Oscars, this could be a supreme battle between Chalamet and DiCaprio with Hawke as potential spoiler.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine), Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

How I Did: 5/6

Blunt is one of the genuine shockers as she’s in instead of Supreme‘s Gwyneth Paltrow. This is a tricky category to pinpoint and we’re going to need precursors to help sort it out.

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

This seems like a race where Value could pick up a trophy with Skarsgård, but both Battle actors are viable.

Best Screenplay

Nominees: Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Another competition where Value is possible though Battle and Sinners might have the edge in that order. I wouldn’t rule out Accident either.

Motion Picture – Non-English Language

Nominees: It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirât, The Voice of Hind Rajab

How I Did: 5/6

Rajab gets the call over Sound of Falling as Value could have the best shot, but Accident is a real threat as is Agent.

Motion Picture – Animated

Nominees: Arco, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 5/6

Demon Slayer instead of Ne Zha 2 (which I also incorrectly predicted for Critics Choice). The voters could go with phenom KPop though Rain and Zootopia are in the hunt.

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, KPop Demon Hunters, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Weapons, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 7/8

This silly little three-year-old category is something the Globes should jettison. After all, Avatar hasn’t even opened and it’s being nominated for its box office achievement? Perhaps Sinners, a truly unanticipated smash hit, takes this. I had Superman up instead of Reckoning.

Original Score

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirât

How I Did: 4/6

F1 (which also got a CCA mention) and Sirât contend over my picks of Bugonia and Marty Supreme. I think Sinners is out front with OBAA threatening.

Original Song

Nominees: “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams; “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 4/6

Well, at least Wicked got two songs nominated, eh? “No Place Like Home” and “Train Dreams” are balloted instead of “Drive” from F1 and “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners. “Golden” could be just that on Globes night.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, adds up to these movies generating numbers of nominations:

9 Nominations

One Battle After Another

8 Nominations

Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Sinners

6 Nominations

Hamnet

5 Nominations

Frankenstein, Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

Bugonia, KPop Demon Hunters, Marty Supreme, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, F1, Jay Kelly, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Train Dreams, Weapons, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

After the Hunt, Arco, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Die, My Love, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Nouvelle Vague, Song Sung Blue, Sorry, Baby, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab

I”ll have predictions up for the show shortly before the January 11th telecast and keep an eye on the blog for updated Oscar projections!

83rd Golden Globe Awards Nomination Predictions

Nominations for the 83rd Golden Globe Awards are out Monday prior to the January 11th ceremony hosted by Nikki Glaser. The highest profile Oscar precursor divides its six nominees for Picture and the lead acting races into Drama and Musical/Comedy designations. Between the 12 hopefuls for BP in those categories in 2024, it showcased 9 of the 10 eventual Academy BP contenders (the one exception being I’m Still Here). All five Best Actor Oscar nominees could be found among the six in the Drama race for the Globes (that will not be the case this year as heavyweights like Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio are in Musical/Comedy). It was a different story for Best Actress as four of the eventual Oscar players were found in Musical/Comedy with Drama victor Fernanda Torres (from I’m Still Here) rounding out the Academy quintet. You could find the five Supporting Actor nominees at the 97th Academy Awards in the Globe six and four of the Oscar Supporting Actresses (the exception being Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown).

In other words, it is smart to include the vast majority of movies and actors that you believe will be honored by the Academy into your Globe forecast if the math works. Two observations – this is where it would be helpful for Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident to have a strong showing after a disappointing one at the Critics’ Choice Awards noms. I’m predicting that it will. This is also where Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery could rebound after being blanked by CCA. I’m predicting that it won’t.

Let’s walk through eace race with my picks and an alternate!

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Frankenstein

Hamnet

It Was Just an Accident

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Alternate – Train Dreams

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Bugonia

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Testament of Ann Lee

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – No Other Choice

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Alternate – Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Jodie Foster, A Private Life

Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

Alternate – Laura Dern, Is This Thing On?

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Alternate – Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Rose Byrne, If I I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Alternate – Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

George Clooney, Jay Kelly

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Brendan Fraser, Rental Family

Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

Alternate – Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Alternate – Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Alternate – Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Best Film Screenplay

Hamnet

It Was Just an Accident

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Alternate – The Secret Agent

Best Non-English Language Film

It Was Just an Accident

No Other Choice

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sirât

Sound of Falling

Alternate – The Voice of Hind Rajab

Best Animated Feature

Arco

Elio

KPop Demon Hunters

Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Ne Zha 2

Zootopia 2

Alternate – Scarlet

Best Original Score

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Alternate – Jay Kelly

Best Original Song

“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash

“Drive” from F1

“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

“I Lied to You” from Sinners

“Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners

“The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good

Alternate – “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good

Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

KPop Demon Hunters

Sinners

Superman

Weapons

Wicked: For Good

Zootopia 2

Alternate – A Minecraft Movie

That works out to these movies getting these numbers of nominations:

9 Nominations

One Battle After Another

8 Nominations

Sentimental Value, Sinners

6 Nominations

Hamnet, Marty Supreme

5 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

Bugonia, Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

Jay Kelly, KPop Demon Hunters, The Secret Agent

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, The Testament of Ann Lee, Weapons, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

After the Hunt, A Private Life, Arco, Blue Moon, Die, My Love, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Ne Zha 2, No Other Choice, Rental Family, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Song Sung Blue, Sound of Falling, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Superman, Train Dreams

31st Critics’ Choice Awards Nominations Reaction

The Critics’ Choice Awards revealed their nominees prior to the January 4th airing. It is rightfully seen a decent Oscar bellwether whose Best Picture nominees recently match with around 8 or 9 of the 10 contenders from the Academy. Before I walk through each race with brief commentary (and how I did), I will note that CCA can be unpredictable in how nominees are nominated. Example – nominees in the Best Foreign Language Film, Comedy, and maybe Animated Feature competitions cannot also be up for Best Picture. That’s a newer development that I wasn’t aware of and it helps explain my poor performance in the Comedy derby.

As expected, Ryan Coogler’s Sinners led the way with 17 mentions and One Battle After Another as runner-up with 14. Both are Warner Bros properties. Of course, WB dominated the headlines for a different reason today due to Netflix’s apparent acquisition of the legendary studio.

Frankenstein and Hamnet were next with 11 nods apiece while Wicked: For Good and definitely Avatar: Fire and Ash struggled.

Overall I went 115 for 142 in my picks. Per above, 5 of those 27 misses came in Best Comedy (I’m still sore about it…). I did go 6 for 6 in 6 categories. Let’s go through the various competitions with my quick initial takes, shall we?

Picture

Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 9/10

Bugonia (which was my alternate) gets in over Avatar: Fire and Ash which managed just one (obvious) nomination. Get used to hearing this in the awards coverage, but One Battle After Another (OBAA) sure seems like the pic to beat unless precursors drastically shift the narrative.

Director

Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

How I Did: 5/6

My alternate Trier makes the sextet instead of Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident). I was pretty surprised Panahi (who’s picked up precursors) didn’t get in. BP should match Director and that’s good news for Mr. Anderson though Coogler or Zhao could pose threats.

Actress

Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

How I Did: 5/6

Seyfried who was, yes, my alternate is in with Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) not finding a home in the lineup. This a major miss for Erivo. I was leaning toward taking her out of my Oscar lineup in my next update and this could help solidify that hunch. As for the winner, Actress is generally seen as the easiest of the four acting races to call and it’s for Buckley.

Actor

Nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

This probably comes down to Chalamet vs. DiCaprio with Moura as a possible spoiler.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

How I Did: 6/6

An unpredictable race where I managed to get the nominees right. It’s tough to project Grande taking this with her costar missing. Taylor might be the slight favorite though I wouldn’t discount Madigan.

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

How I Did: 5/6

I forecasted a slight upset with Delroy Lindo (Sinners) in and not Elordi, who was (of course) my alternate. Another tough call as either Battle boy is viable but Skarsgård could emerge.

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Sorry, Baby, Weapons

How I Did: 5/6

Sorry, Baby in over It Was Just an Accident in another significant omission. This should be Value vs. Sinners.

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

I’ll note that No Other Choice, like international counterpart Accident, had a somewhat ho-hum day. OBAA should be victorious.

Foreign Language Film

Nominees: Belén, It Was Just an Accident, Left-Handed Girl, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sirât

How I Did: 4/6

This is where I was unaware Value wouldn’t qualify since it was in the BP ten. It is out along with The Voice of Hind Rajab in favor of Belén and Left-Handed Girl. Accident might win despite the middling performance though Agent is a considerable threat.

Animated Feature

Nominees: Arco, Elio, In Your Dreams, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 4/6

Elio and In Your Dreams over Ne Zha 2 and Scarlet. CCA is unlikely to ignore the massive hit KPop. If they do, they’ll go with massive hit Zootopia 2.

Comedy

Nominees: The Ballad of Wallis Island, Eternity, Friendship, The Naked Gun, The Phoenician Scheme, Splitsville

How I Did: 1/6

Yeah… per my frustration above, I didn’t know BP nominees weren’t eligible. That’s why Phoenician is my only correct pick as I had BP contenders Bugonia, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, and OBAA. The other was Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery and it was totally blanked. I’ll lean toward Phoenician but Naked Gun and maybe Friendship could get this.

Casting and Ensemble

Nominees: Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

This is a WB showdown between OBAA and Sinners.

Cinematography

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

How I Did: 5/6

F1 instead of Marty Supreme (which missed a couple of expected tech nods). This may also be an OBAA vs. Sinners race though Train Dreams could spoil.

Costume Design

Nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Hedda, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 4/6

Hamnet and Hedda in; Marty Supreme and OBAA out with Frankenstein and Wicked as the frontrunners.

Editing

Nominees: A House of Dynamite, F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Sinners

How I Did: 5/6

The surprise here is Neighbor, which is seen as a likely nominee and potential Oscar winner for Documentary Feature, getting in (I had No Other Choice instead). Could the Academy notice? As for the probable winner – OBAA.

Hair and Makeup

Nominees: 28 Years Later, Frankenstein, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, Weapons, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Apparently I know my Hair and Makeup. Note this is the only nod for Machine (sorry Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt). Like Costume Design, Frankenstein and Wicked are win friendliest.

Production Design

Nominees: The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 5/6

Another potential Frankenstein/Wicked showdown. I had Avatar and not Fantastic Four.

Score

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 4/6

F1 (which had a nice day with 7 noms) and Frankenstein over A House of Dynamite and Bugonia. Think Sinners here or maybe OBAA.

Song

“Drive” from F1; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 4/6

“Drive” and “Clothed” make the musical cut over “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless and “Highest 2 Lowest” from the same titled film. Like in Animated Feature, the voters may go with KPop.

Sound

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirât, Warfare

How I Did: 4/6

Sirât and Warfare heard their names called over Avatar and Wicked: For Good (another notable miss). Don’t be surprised if F1 captures this.

Stunt Design

Nominees: Ballerina, F1, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Tough one but CCA might go with Cruise and company in his franchise finale.

Visual Effects

Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Superman

How I Did: 4/6

Finally, Avatar is nominated! And it will probably win though who knows considering the underwhelming performance. Fantastic Four and Wicked miss with Mission and Sinners in.

Young Actor/Actress

Nominees: Everett Blunck (The Plague), Miles Caton (Sinners), Cary Christopher (Weapons), Shannon Mahina Gorman (Rental Family), Jacobi Jupe (Hamnet), Nina Ye (Left-Handed Girl)

How I Did: 4/6

I had Aidan Delbis (Bugonia) and Actress nominee Chase Infiniti (OBAA) in this and not Gorman or Ye. I suspect this is between Caton and Jupe.

Below is the nomination count and I’ll have final predictions up shortly before the ceremony. Keep an eye on the blog this weekend for final Golden Globe predictions (out Monday).

17 Nominations

Sinners

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another

11 Nominations

Frankenstein, Hamnet

8 Nominations

Marty Supreme

7 Nominations

F1, Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good

5 Nominations

Train Dreams

4 Nominations

Jay Kelly, Weapons

3 Nominations

Bugonia

2 Nominations

KPop Demon Hunters, Left-Handed Girl, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sirât, The Testament of Ann Lee, Warfare

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, A House of Dynamite, Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Ballerina, Belén, Blue Moon, Elio, Eternity, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Friendship, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, In Your Dreams, It Was Just an Accident, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Naked Gun, The Perfect Neighbor, The Phoenician Scheme, The Plague, Rental Family, The Smashing Machine, Sorry, Baby, Splitsville, Superman, Zootopia 2

31st Critics’ Choice Awards Nomination Predictions

Nominations for the 31st Critics’ Choice Awards will be unveiled tomorrow morning before its telecast on January 4th. With Chelsea Handler returning to host, it is one of the higher profile Oscar precursors. This awards branch is traditionally hesitant to honor international titles though titles No Other Choice and The Secret Agent popped up on their shortlists for consideration and recent pics like Roma, Parasite, and RRR made the cut. Speaking of, this is the first year where CCA unveiled shortlists for a number of below the line races.

Like the Oscars, there are 10 nominees for Best Picture. Last year, 9 out of 10 CCA nominees got a BP nod from the Academy. It was 8 the previous two years so this is a decent barometer for what’s to come. Unlike the Oscars, there were 8 nominated Directors (at least there was last year), but apparently only six this time around and 6 hopefuls in other categories.

Here are my predictions with an alternate for each competition:

Best Picture

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Bugonia

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Alternate – Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Alternate – Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Alternate – George Clooney, Jay Kelly

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Alternate – Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another

Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Alternate – Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Best Original Screenplay

It Was Just an Accident

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Weapons

Alternate – The Secret Agent

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

No Other Choice

One Battle After Another

Train Dreams

Alternate – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Comedy

Bugonia

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

The Phoenician Scheme

Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Alternate – The Naked Gun

Best Ensemble

Hamnet

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – A House of Dynamite

Best Foreign Language Film

It Was Just an Accident

No Other Choice

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sirât

The Voice of Hind Rajab

Alternate – Left-Handed Girl

Best Animated Film

Arco

KPop Demon Hunters

Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Ne Zha 2

Scarlet

Zootopia 2

Alternate – Elio

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Train Dreams

Alternate – Jay Kelly

Best Costume Design

Frankenstein

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Hamnet

Best Editing

A House of Dynamite

F1

Marty Supreme

No Other Choice

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Alternate – Hamnet

Best Hair and Makeup

28 Years Later

Frankenstein

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Weapons

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Production Design

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Hedda

Best Original Score

A House of Dynamite

Bugonia

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Alternate – Frankenstein

Best Original Song

“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless

“The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good

“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

“Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest

“I Lied to You” from Sinners

“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

Alternate – “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners

Best Sound

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

Frankenstein

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Warfare

Best Stunt Ensemble

Ballerina

F1

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Superman

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

F1

Frankenstein

Superman

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Mickey 17

Best Young Actor/Actress

Everett Blunck, The Plague

Miles Caton, Sinners

Cary Christopher, Weapons

Aidan Delbis, Bugonia

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Jacobi Jupe, Hamnet

Alternate – Alfie Williams, 28 Years Later

That means I am predicting the following number of nominations for these films:

17 Nominations

Sinners

16 Nominations

One Battle After Another

11 Nominations

Marty Supreme, Wicked: For Good

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Frankenstein

8 Nominations

Sentimental Value

5 Nominations

Bugonia, Jay Kelly, Train Dreams

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Weapons

3 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice

2 Nominations

A House of Dynamite, KPop Demon Hunters, The Secret Agent

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, Arco, Ballerina, Blue Moon, Diane Warren: Relentless, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Highest 2 Lowest, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Ne Zha 2, The Phoenician Scheme, The Plague, Scarlet, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2