Tag: Sundance Film Festival

Oscar Predictions: Exhibiting Forgiveness

Exhibiting Forgiveness marks the directorial debut of Titus Kaphar and it was unveiled at Sundance over the weekend. The family drama stars André Holland, John Earl Jelks, Andra Day, and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor.

Sporting a 100% RT rating, Forgiveness could be a real contender in some top tier races a year from now. With the right campaign, Picture and Original Screenplay are feasible. Holland could be a factor in lead Actor. With acclaimed turns in Moonlight and Passing, it could be time for major awards exposure (he also has a potentially baity part in The Actor in 2024). Jelks also is generating praise for his supporting work. This is one to keep an eye on throughout the long upcoming season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: A Different Man

Writer/director Aaron Schimberg’s A Different Man was one of the more buzzed about titles premiering at Sundance and early reaction is that it lives up to the hype. With reviews indicating it crosses multiple genres, Sebastian Stan stars as a formerly disfigured man with Adam Pearson (who has neurofibromatosis in real life) playing him in a stage production. Renate Reinsve (who drew acclaim raves for 2021’s The Worst Person in the World) costars.

With a 90% RT score, critics are saying this is tough story to pull off and that Schimberg generally succeeds. One also gets the vibe that this is a very A24 production. Translation: mainstream crowds might be turned off.

That said, A24 could mount a campaign for two of the three top performers in particular. Stan is said to give a career best performance in lead while Pearson is getting plenty of attention for his supporting turn. You may recognize him from an extremely eerie scene in Jonathan Glazer’s Under the Skin from 2014. If those actors can be in contention, other top of the line races could follow. I wouldn’t count out a Makeup and Hairstyling nod either. Let’s see how hard its distributor pushes. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: I Saw the TV Glow

A24 is having a solid Sundance so far (Love Lies Bleeding, A Different Man) and Jane Schoenbrun’s horror pic I Saw the TV Glow is part of it. It is the director’s sophomore effort behind We’re All Going to the World’s Fair with Justice Smith, Brigette Lundy-Paine, Danielle Deadwyler, Helena Howard, and Limp Bizkit’s Fred Durst headlining.

Glow is shining with a 100% RT rating. This seems destined for kudos throughout the year as critics are saying this is far from a sophomore slump. That said, A24 products can be too much for the Academy and that could be the case (especially considering the genre). Don’t be surprised if this ends up on some top ten lists. I wouldn’t expect the Academy’s to be one of them. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Power

In 2017, Yance Ford’s true crime doc Strong Island (centered on the murder of the filmmaker’s brother) contended for Documentary Feature at the Oscars, ultimately losing to Icarus. Island first screened at Sundance seven years ago. His follow-up is Power and it has also been unveiled at the Utah fest.

Focusing on American policing tactics, the handful of reviews out are a bit mixed. The RT score is 83% (Island had a clean 100%). Power might have a tougher road to make the Academy’s ultimate quintet, but I wouldn’t discount it if it manages to make the shortlisted 15. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Love Lies Bleeding

Rose Glass’s 2020 directorial debut Saint Maud was a critically hailed horror tale that originally screened at Toronto in 2019. Her sophomore effort Love Lies Bleeding (out March 8th) is a Sundance affair and it is one of the more eagerly awaited titles. The 80s set noirish thriller casts Kristen Stewart and Katy O’Brian as lovers embroiled in crime drama. Costars include Ed Harris, Jena Malone, Anna Baryshnikov, and Dave Franco.

From the reaction out of Utah, Bleeding should inspire strong reactions across the spectrum. The RT score is 90% (**Blogger’s Note: updated March 9th) with reviewers praising technical aspects (cinematography, score) and the cast (Stewart is particularly getting some shouts along with Harris). K-Stew has quite a presence at Sundance 2024. Her sci-fi two-hander Love Me with Steven Yeun is drawing mixed notices.

A24 apparently has a wild ride on its hands. If the studio play their cards right, supporting campaigns for Stewart (or maybe lead) and Harris are in order. On the other hand, this could be too out there for awards voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Frida

Salma Hayek received her sole Oscar nomination in Actress for the title role of 2002’s Frida. Over two decades later, Mexican painter Frida Kahlo is the subject of Carla Gutierrez’s documentary. Premiering at Sundance, it is slated for Amazon streaming in March. The filmmaker makes her directorial debut though she’s served as editor on high profile docs like RBG and Julia.

Reviews out of Utah thus far are a bit on the mixed side. In recent years, we’ve seen a slew of movies in this genre focused on artists of the painting and musical variety. They rarely run through the gauntlet and make it to the Academy’s final five in Documentary Feature. I question Frida‘s chances as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Sasquatch Sunset

Sasquatch Sunset comes from brothers Nathan and David Zellner and the quirky comedy focuses on a family of three Bigfoots. Premiering at Sundance prior to an April 12th release, it stars Jesse Eisenberg, Riley Keough, Christophe Zajac-Denek, and Nathan Zellner himself. Ari Aster executives produces and this sounds right up his absurdist alley.

Critics are mostly digging this and it sports a 79% RT score. Even those reviews, however, indicate mainstream audiences could be baffled. I doubt this will have a big footprint (or any) during awards season (though maybe the makeup work get some attention). It should also be noted that distributor Bleecker Street has a weak track record at campaigning. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Presence

Steven Soderbergh’s latest is Presence and early reviews from Sundance compliment it as an unconventionally engrossing ghost story. Lucy Liu, Julia Fox, and Chris Sullivan star in the brief (85 minutes) genre exercise written by David Koepp (who scripted the director’s recent Kimi).

Mr. Soderbergh helped usher in the indie revolution in 1989 with Sex, Lies, and Videotape. Since then, he’s helmed an eclectic mix of awards contenders, blockbusters, and experimental efforts. This appears to fall in the latter grouping. It’s actually been some time since Soderbergh was majorly in the Oscar mix with the one two punch of Erin Brockovich and Traffic in 2000.

Despite a 100% RT score, Presence shouldn’t have one among Academy voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Outrun

As a recovering alcoholic returning to her native Scottish Island roots, Saoirse Ronan looks to enter next year’s awards mix in The Outrun. From Nora Fingscheidt, best known for 2021’s The Unforgivable with Sandra Bullock, the StudioCanal production is based on the 2016 novel by Amy Liptrot (who scripts). Costars include Paapa Essiedu, Stephen Dillane, and Saskia Reeves.

With a smattering of reviews from its screening at Sundance, this is at 83% on RT. One thing seems clear. Ronan probably will be in the conversation for Actress. At just age 29, she’s already a four-time Academy nominee. Her first mention was in the supporting field at 13 for 2007’s Atonement. The trio of Actress noms were in a five ceremony period: 2015’s Brooklyn, 2017’s Lady Bird, and Little Women in 2019. She’s yet to take the trophy. In recent times, her projects (See How They Run, Foe) have failed to garner any awards buzz.

As long as this is still on the voters radar in a year, Ronan could be in contention for her fifth attempt. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Greatest Night in Pop

Before its January 29th bow on Netflix, Bao Nyugen’s The Greatest Night in Pop got its screening night at Sundance. Nguyen, who helmed the Bruce Lee centered Be Water, chronicles the historic recording of 1985’s famine relief track “We Are the World”. The doc features interviews with some of the participants including cowriter Lionel Richie, Bruce Springsteen, Cyndi Lauper, and preeminent 80s soundtrack (Caddyshack, Footloose, Over the Top, Top Gun) crooner Kenny Loggins.

Early word-of-mouth from Utah (not enough yet for an RT score) indicates this is an appealing enough watch. The buzz doesn’t seem strong enough to turn this into an awards contender though I’m sure nostalgia buffs will happily stream it at the end of the month. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…