From the directors of the BadMoms pics, Jexi dials into theaters next weekend and is hoping for a decent reception. The comedy stars Adam DeVine as a loner obsessed with his phone. When he gets an upgrade that includes Rose Byrne voicing the title character/feature, life begins to improve until the artificially intelligent being develops an obsession with him. Costars include Alexandra Shipp, Michael Pena, Justin Hartley, and Wanda Sykes.
I have a hunch Jexi will have a tough time connecting with filmgoers. As far as its effectiveness via trailer and TV spots, I’m getting a bit of a Stuber vibe. That comedy with Kumail Nanjiani stalled over the summer with just an $8.2 million opening weekend. And one could argue Nanjiani has more drawing ability than DeVine.
Considering that, I’ll say this will be lucky to reach that number and won’t do so.
Quentin Tarantino’s acclaimed OnceUponaTimeinHollywood with Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt is the sole fresh wide release this weekend. It looks to have a strong second place showing behind the sophomore frame of the record breaking TheLionKing. You can find my detailed prediction post on it here:
I have Mr. Tarantino’s ninth feature just barely topping his previous traditional weekend opening earner from a decade ago, InglouriousBasterds. My original estimate put it in the mid 40s, but I’ve had a gut feeling over the weekend that it won’t quite hit $40 million.
As for the behemoth King, I see a dip in the mid 50s range that would put it in the mid 80s. That’s similar to the drop experienced by last summer’s Incredibles2.
Spider–Man: FarFromHome looks to be third with ToyStory4 in fourth position. I look for Yesterday to vault over Crawl to remain in fifth place.
And with that, my take on the late July weekend ahead:
1. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $86.5 million
2. OnceUponaTimeinHollywood
Predicted Gross: $38.7 million
3. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $13 million
4. ToyStory4
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million
5. Yesterday
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million
BoxOfficeResults (July19–21)
Disney’s magical summer continued in two significant ways. TheLionKing easily broke the all time July record with a roaring $191.7 million and that’s right in line with my $192.7 million projection. That captures the high mark previously set by HarryPotterandtheDeathlyHallowsPart2 by over $20 million.
Secondly, Avengers: Endgame took the #1 spot as the largest worldwide hit in history. At $2.7 billion, it has now edged out Avatar.
After two weeks on top, Spider–Man: FarFromHome slipped to second with $21.2 million compared to my $22.4 million take. The three week tally is $319 million.
ToyStory4 was third with $15.5 million as it elevated over my $13.2 million forecast. Total is $376 million with $400 million in its sights.
Crawl was fourth in weekend #2 with $6 million (I said $5.4 million) for $23 million in two weeks.
Yesterday rounded out the top five and I incorrectly had it outside of that. The musical dramedy made $5 million for $57 million overall.
I had Aladdin holding stronger than it did at $5.5 million. It made $4 million for seventh place behind Stuber ($4.1 million). This Mouse Factory live action rendering is up to $340 million.
Disney once again looks to dominate the box office this weekend as TheLionKing stomps into theaters with Spider–Man: FarFromHome and ToyStory4 in the runner-up positions. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the Mouse Factory’s latest live-action rendering of an animated classic here:
TheLionKing could be poised for a top ten all-time debut and my estimate puts in at #8, behind BlackPanther but just ahead of Avengers: AgeofUltron.
Spider–Man, after two impressive weeks on top, should dip to second and lose around 50% of its volume with ToyStory4 in third.
Crawl, after a fair opening, might experience a drop of over 50%. That could put in a battle for fourth with Aladdin. That Disney update may well return to the top five when considering its likely drive-in pairings with the weekend’s champ.
Here’s how I have the top five playing out:
1. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $192.7 million
2. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $22.4 million
3. ToyStory4
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Aladdin
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
5. Crawl
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
BoxOfficeResults (July12–14)
The MCU, as anticipated, had no trouble staying atop the charts as Spider–Man: FarFromHome took in $45.3 million in its sophomore frame. That’s in line with my $43.5 million projection as the sequel now stands at $274 million.
ToyStory4 was second with $20.9 million (I said $20.7 million) for $346 million overall.
Crawl was an interesting case study. The alligator horror flick took in $12 million for third, a bit shy of my $14.2 million take. Considering its reported $13.5 million price tag, that’s a decent result. However, Paramount made a curious choice not screening it for critics and it ended up getting solid reviews. One wonders if the studio had let word of mouth percolate, if the numbers could have been higher.
The other newcomer was the Kumail Nanjiani/Dave Bautista comedy Stuber and it stalled in fourth with just $8.2 million compared to my $10.8 million prediction.
Yesterday rounded out the top five with $6.7 million (I said $6.4 million) for $48 million total.
The newcomers this weekend are a bit low key and not your weekly dose of wannabe blockbusters as the alligator horror flick Crawl and Kumail Nanjiani/Dave Bautista action comedy Stuber debut. Neither have much of a shot of bitIng into the dominance of Spider–Man: FarFromHome. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
Crawl hopes to snag a sizable portion of moviegoers who have recently feasted on shark tales. I think that’ll equate to low to mid teens and third place.
As for Stuber, its rather generic ad campaign and middling reviews may mean it struggles to hit teens. That likely means fourth place.
After a terrific start, FarFromHome should easily hang onto first position. It’s worth noting that predecessor Spider–Man: Homecoming fell a steep 62% in its sophomore outing. While I don’t see this dipping that much, a drop of over 50% seems feasible.
Barring a surprising performance from the fresh players, ToyStory4 will play in second with Yesterday rounding out the top five.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $43.6 million
2. ToyStory4
Predicted Gross: $20.7 million
3. Crawl
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million
4. Stuber
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million
5. Yesterday
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
BoxOfficeResults (July5–7)
The Marvel Cinematic Universe ruled the long holiday weekend as Spider–Man: FarFromHome kept the gravy train rolling for Disney. Since its debut on Tuesday, the sequel has made $185 million. That’s just a tad under my $190.4 million projection. For the Friday to Sunday traditional frame, it made $92.5 million. My estimate? $92.5 million!!!
ToyStory4 was second at $33.8 million, topping my $28.9 million prediction. In ten days, the Pixar pic crossed the triple century mark at $306 million.
Yesterday displayed a sturdy hold in third with $10 million (I said $11.2 million). Total is $36 million.
AnnabelleComesHome was fourth with $9.4 million, a bit more than my $8.1 million take for $49 million overall.
I incorrectly left Aladdin outside the top five, but that’s where it was with $7.5 million. The impressive tally has risen to $320 million.
Finally, acclaimed horror entry Midsommar was sixth with $6.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $10.9 million since its Wednesday start. That’s below my respective estimates of $7.8 million and $13.2 million.
Arriving two years following his breakout theatrical role in TheBigSick, Kumail Nanjiani stars in Stuber next week. He plays an Uber driver who picks up a detective (Dave Bautista) and becomes embroiled in action comedy shenanigans. Michael Dowse directs with a supporting cast including Iko Uwais, Natalie Morales, Betty Gilpin, Mira Sorvino, and Karen Gillan.
Stuber premiered at the South by Southwest Festival back in March to mixed reaction. Its Rotten Tomatoes score is a middling 47%. That leaves it without the positive word of mouth that greeted Nanjiani’s Sick.
I don’t believe the rather generic looking trailers and TV spots will make this is a must see among many moviegoers. I’ll predict this struggles to even reach low teens.
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