Will & Harper seems to be quite a crowd favorite at Sundance. The documentary follows Will Ferrell and best friend Harper Steele on a road trip following Harper’s recent gender transition. Josh Greenbaum, who made Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar and Strays, chronicles the journey.
Not all the reviews are raves, but it does have a 100% RT score. Obviously Ferrell’s star power and the subject matter could result in lots of eyeballs on this doc. It should be scooped by a streamer or studio in short order and there’s already rumors it might land the largest doc deal in Sundance history.
Just because this appears bound to be one of the highest profile pics in its genre doesn’t mean it’ll generate awards attention. Yet if viewers respond the way the Park City group is (multiple standing O’s), it could be in the conversation. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (08/23): I’ve downgraded my Turismo prediction from $24.3M to $19.3M.
The month of August closes out with a trio of new titles and National Cinema Day happening on Sunday with ticket prices at $4 in thousands of theaters. The Playstation based racing drama Gran Turismo, faith-based baseball drama The Hill, and Liam Neeson’s action thriller Retribution premiere and you can access my detailed prediction posts on them here:
With high familiarity for the video game source material and decent enough reviews, Gran Turismo should place first with a mid 20s haul. The National Cinema Day bargain prices on Sunday could push this to grosses similar to what Blue Beetle made in its opening.
Speaking of Beetle, it may drop from first to third in its sophomore frame after a poor start (more on that below). That’s because Barbie should see a smaller decline and remain in second.
As for other holdovers, Oppenheimer and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem should each ease a spot to fourth and fifth.
That’s because I don’t envision The Hill or Retribution hitting the top five. The former could exceed my forecast if it breaks through with Christian audiences. I have it at $3.3 million. With Retribution, I see no compelling reason why it wouldn’t open on pace with recent Neeson pics and that’d mean an opening of just over $3 million. I’ll go a tad less with $2.4 million.
Here’s how I see that high five playing out:
1. Gran Turismo
Predicted Gross: $19.3 million
2. Barbie
Predicted Gross: $16.5 million
3. Blue Beetle
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Oppenheimer
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
Box Office Results (August 18-20)
Good news and bad news for Warner Bros as Barbie became the studio’s largest domestic earner of all time over 2008’s The Dark Knight. Obviously that’s the good news.
WB saw Barbie‘s four-week reign atop the charts by the WB’s Blue Beetle. Yet that’s kinda the bad news because its $25 million beginning is the lowest in the decade plus history of the DCU. It did manage to barely top my $23.7 million take, but it’s still a subpar start.
As for Barbie, it was second with $21 million. That’s just under my $22.5 million projection as its $566 million total set for the aforementioned record.
Oppenheimer was third with $10.7 million compared to my $12.7 million estimate for a five-week tally of $285 million.
Fourth place belonged to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem with $8.5 million (I said $9.2 million) for $88 million in three weeks.
Rounding out the top five in disappointing fashion was Strays. The R rated comedy featuring Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx voicing dirty dogs tanked with $8.2 million. I was kinder at $13.5 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your preferred streaming platform. Until next time…
The DCEU hopes to halt a string of disappointments with Blue Beetle while Strays features the vocal canine stylings of Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx. Both pics will attempt to dethrone Barbie after four weeks on top. My individual prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
Warner Bros and DC Comics have seen some underwhelming returns as of late with Black Adam, Shazam! Fury of the Gods, and this summer’s mega flop The Flash. I don’t anticipate their fortunes will turn with Beetle. A best case scenario might be $30 million. My projection below $25 million does give it an ever so slight edge over Barbie (which I see falling in the mid 30s in its fifth outing). Yet I doubt WB/DC will be bragging.
As for Strays, the R-rated comedy might have benefitted from Ferrell and Foxx hitting the promotion circuit. With the SAG-AFTRA strike, that’s not an option. This genre has struggled in recent years anyway. My low to mid teens take puts it in third with a start similar to No Hard Feelings from a few weeks back.
Oppenheimer and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem should fill out the rest of the top five and here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Blue Beetle
Predicted Gross: $23.7 million
2. Barbie
Predicted Gross: $22.5 million
3. Strays
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million
4. Oppenheimer
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
Box Office Results (August 11-13)
The summer phenomenon that is Barbenheimer returned to rule the charts with Barbie leading the way. In its fourth frame, it took in $33.8 million and that’s good for the ninth best fourth weekend in history. It’s also a touch higher than my $30.4 million forecast as it climbed to $526 million overall.
Oppenheimer returned to the runner-up slot with $18.8 million, on target with my $19 million take. Christopher Nolan’s epic was down only 35% and it’s up to $264 million.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem rose from fourth to third with $15.2 million in its sophomore weekend. My prediction? $15.2 million! The acclaimed animated reboot has made $72 million.
As anticipated, Meg 2: The Trench suffered the heftiest drop of the holdovers (57%). Falling from second to fourth, the shark sequel grossed $12.8 million (I said $12 million) to bring its tally to $54 million. On the brighter side, it’s making a killing overseas like its 2018 predecessor.
Finally, The Last Voyage of the Demeter bombed in fifth with $6.5 million. Dubbed the “Dracula on a Boat” movie, audiences weren’t intrigued as it premiered on pace with my $6.4 million projection. With a B- Cinemascore, looking for it to sink even further next weekend.
And that does it for now, folks! Check out my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your favorite listening stream. Until next time…
Universal Pictures achieved box office success with a Cocaine Bear earlier this year. They’re hoping raunchy talking dogs sell tickets on August 18th when Strays debuts. Josh Greenbaum directs with Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx lending their vocal talents to the headlining hounds. Isla Fisher and Randall Park also provide behind the mic work. Other cast members include Will Forte, Josh Gad, Harvey Guillén, Rob Riggle, Brett Gelman, Jamie Demetriou, Sofia Vergara, and Dennis Quaid.
Originally set for June, the studio would dream of Sausage Party style success. It premiered in the same mid-August frame in 2016 to over $30 million. Party also had considerably more buzz. Comedies have also struggled mightily in the past few years.
I could see this opening similarly to this summer’s No Hard Feelings and that would mean low to mid teens.
Adele Kim, best known for cowriting 2018’s smash surprise hit Crazy Rich Asians, makes her directorial debut with Joy Ride on July 7th. The raunchy comedy, which premiered at South by Southwest to impressive reviews, stars Ashley Park, Sherry Cola, recent Oscar nominee Stephanie Hsu from Everything Everywhere All at Once, Sabrina Wu, Ronny Chieng, Annie Mumolo, David Denman, and Lori Tan Chinn.
The road trip pic is another hard R laugher in a genre underrepresented in recent years. There’s been a bit of a comeback this summer as it follows No Hard Feelings by two weeks and precedes August’s Strays.
With a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating, this could manage to ride its festival buzz to a debut above $10 million. I’m going say it falls just short.
Joy Ride opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million
For my Insidious: The Red Door prediction, click here:
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