February 13-16 Box Office Predictions

In a weekend that includes Friday the 13th, Valentine’s Day, and President’s Day, Hollywood is hoping for luck, love, and a commanding amount of cash to wake up a sleepy box office. There are a handful of newcomers – romantic drama Wuthering Heights, animated sports tale Goat, action thriller Crime 101, sci-fi action comedy Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die, and horror comedy Cold Storage. Three of them are likely to hold the top 3 slots while the other two are unlikely to make the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:

Heights, Emerald Fennell’s loose adaptation of the Emily Brontë novel with Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi, appears poised to dominate with a hefty female crowd (many of whom could bring along their significant others). My forecast is even higher than most with a three-day estimate in the mid 50s and four-day in the lower 60s.

Goat has the potential to exceed my projection with a sizable family audience. My long weekend prediction of just over $30 million would put it firmly in second. If it truly rises above expectations, it could challenge Heights if that film fails to match where I have it reaching.

Crime 101 with Chris Hemsworth should get in the teens for a third place showing based on decent word-of-mouth and the opportunity to reach a male demographic.

As for Good Luck with Sam Rockwell and Storage with Joe Keery, I have both falling short of the top five. They will compete for some of the same patrons and I’m not confident either will make a notable impact. For Luck, I’m going with $3.5 million from Friday to Sunday and $4 million when counting Monday. As for Storage, I’m calling for a bit less with $2.9 million (Friday to Sunday) and $3.3 million (Friday to Monday).

Holdovers often see minimal declines over this particular holiday weekend and I have Send Help and Solo Mio in fourth and fifth and holding up well.

Here’s how I envision it shaking out:

1. Wuthering Heights

Predicted Gross: $55 million (3-day); $62.1 million (4-day)

2. Goat

Predicted Gross: $26.7 million (3-day); $30.4 million (4-day)

3. Crime 101

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million (3-day); $15.2 million (4-day)

4. Send Help

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (3-day); $8.2 million (4-day)

5. Solo Mio

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (3-day); $7.5 million (4-day)

Box Office Results (February 6-8)

Sam Raimi’s Send Help managed two weeks in a row atop the charts over a sluggish frame with $9 million, in range with my $8.6 million prediction. The critically appreciated black comedy has made $34 million in its ten days of release.

Solo Mio was second and sparked a welcome return for Kevin James after a decade long absence from headlining on the silver screen. The Angel Studios dramedy posted a better than anticipated $7 million, ahead of my $5.2 million take.

Video gamed based Iron Lung was third in its sophomore outing with $6.7 million (I said $7.1 million) for a two-week tally of $31 million.

Stray Kids: The DominATE Experience, a concert film centered on the South Korean boy band, placed fourth with $5.6 million. I did not do an estimate for it and therefore had it omitted from the top 5.

Same goes for Luc Besson’s Dracula which bit off $4.4 million for a fifth place start. I had it making $3.5 million and outside of the top half of the chart.

The Strangers – Chapter 3 flopped in seventh with $3.4 million, under my $4.5 million guesstimate. I should’ve switched projections for this one and Dracula.

Finally, I gave too much credit to Melania in its second weekend. The doc about the First Lady fell 67% to tenth place with $2.3 million. I was more generous at $4.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…