Tag: steven spielberg

August 29-September 1 Box Office Predictions

Three newcomers and one summer classic celebrating a half century in existence will work hard to earn box office dollars this Labor Day weekend. We have comedy remake The Roses with Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman, Darren Aronofsky’s crime thriller Caught Stealing starring Austin Butler and Zoë Kravitz, Peter Dinklage in the splatter reboot The Toxic Avenger Unrated, and the 50th anniversary reissue of Steven Spielberg’s Jaws out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quartet here:

The Roses Box Office Prediction
Caught Stealing Box Office Prediction
Jaws 50th Anniversary Box Office Prediction
The Toxic Avenger Unrated Box Office Prediction

We’ll discuss Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event in the results section below. We know it won’t be #1 since the streamer put it out only as a two-day multiplex event on Saturday and Sunday this past weekend.

That means Weapons should return to the top spot as I don’t see the fresh foursome challenging it. The acclaimed horror flick should remain in the teens as holdovers usually have meager declines or even slight increases over the Friday to Monday of Labor Day weekend compared to the previous weekend.

The Roses could manage the best start of the new titles though I have it slightly behind the fourth weekend of Freakier Friday.

Caught Stealing might be stuck in fourth with The Fantastic Four: First Steps just behind in fifth and the Jaws reissue in sixth.

As for Toxic, my $1.8 million guesstimate puts it far down the charts.

The only placement I’m confident in is Weapons in 1st while the others jockey for position. Keep in mind that these estimates are made for the four-day holiday and here’s how I envision the top six:

1. Weapons

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million

2. Freakier Friday

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

3. The Roses

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

4. Caught Stealing

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

6. Jaws 50th Anniversary

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (August 22-24)

After two months plus on the streaming service, Netflix made an unconventional move by releasing a sing-along version of their massive hit KPop Demon Hunters on Saturday and Sunday. They were conventional in not officially reporting its numbers. However, estimates put it at $19.2 million and that’s ahead of my $13.8 million call and easily strong enough for 1st place. With an over $11k plus per screen average, kids had no trouble getting their folks to bring them out. The specialized engagement is only for the aforementioned two days.

Weapons was second with $15.4 million, just under my $16.1 million projection. Zach Cregger’s disappearance tale has amassed $115 million in three weeks.

Freakier Friday was third with $8.8 million, on pace with my $8.7 million forecast. The Disney sequel has taken in $70 million after three weeks.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps, in week five, was fourth with $6 million (I said $5.8 million) for $257 million thus far.

The Bad Guys 2 rounded out the top five with $5.1 million, in line with my $5.2 million call for $66 million in four weeks.

Action sequel Nobody 2 tumbled 60% in its sophomore outing with $3.7 million. I was a bit more generous at $4.8 million. The tally is a mere $16 million.

Finally, Ethan Coen’s noirish comedy Honey Don’t! opened in 8th with $3 million. That’s nothing to brag about, but it did outshine my $1.8 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Jaws 50th Anniversary Box Office Prediction

Celebrating its 50th anniversary is the OG summer blockbuster and it’s out in multiplexes over Labor Day weekend. That would be Steven Spielberg’s Jaws with Roy Scheider, Robert Shaw, Richard Dreyfuss, Lorraine Gary, Murray Hamilton, an unforgettable score, and a mechanical shark that sometimes worked and mostly didn’t.

Unquestionably one of the most influential and iconic pictures in cinematic history, it surpassed The Godfather in 1975 as the highest grossing movie ever (holding that record until Star Wars two years later).

Unadjusted for inflation, Spielberg’s first blockbuster stands at $477 million worldwide (nearly $3 billion in today’s bucks). The milestone birthday could add mid to possibly high single digits over the four-day holiday to its coffers.

Jaws 50th Anniversary opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my The Roses prediction, click here:

The Roses Box Office Prediction

For my Caught Stealing prediction, click here:

Caught Stealing Box Office Prediction

For my The Toxic Avenger Unrated prediction, click here:

The Toxic Avenger Unrated Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Jurassic World Rebirth

None of the five follow-ups to Steven Spielberg’s 1993 classic Jurassic Park generated much awards attention. Will that change with the sixth? Jurassic World Rebirth hits theaters on Wednesday with Gareth Edwards handling directorial duties and Scarlett Johansson, Mahershala Ali, Jonathan Bailey, Rupert Friend, and Manuel Garcia-Rulfo starring.

The original over three decades ago won all 3 Oscars it was up for – Visual Effects, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing (back when the sound races were separated). 1997 sequel The Lost World: Jurassic Park landed a sole VE nom, but lost to Titanic. The next four entries – Jurassic Park III, Jurassic World, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Jurassic World: Dominion – garnered a total of zero Academy mentions.

Reviews for Rebirth are mixed to negative. While certainly stronger than Dominion‘s 29% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 38 Metacritic, the 56% RT and 53 Meta are nothing to roar about. Edwards has seen two pics in his filmography contend in Visual Effects – 2016’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and 2023’s The Creator. I doubt his first dino adventure will bring the series back into that category for the first time this century. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Jurassic World Rebirth Box Office Prediction

Jurassic World Rebirth looks to rule the Independence Day holiday frame beginning July 2nd. This is now the third iteration of the dino franchise that kicked off with 1993’s Jurassic Park from Steven Spielberg and the seventh entry overall. Gareth Edwards, no stranger to franchise fare with Godzilla and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story in his discography, directs. Scarlett Johansson headlines the cast that features Mahershala Ali, Jonathan Bailey, Rupert Friend, and Manuel Garcia-Rulfo.

The second Jurassic trilogy premiered in spectacular fashion a decade back when Jurassic World made $208 million out of the gate and $652 million domestically. The follow-ups performed well though with diminishing results. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom in 2018 debuted at $148 million and $417 million overall. 2022’s Jurassic World: Dominion was barely behind at $145 million and $376 million in total.

I anticipate that Rebirth will continue the downward trend. When World opened 10 years ago, there was pent up anticipation for the franchise with a nostalgia factor in play. Such factors are diluted with only a three-year layover between entries. It doesn’t help that Dominion was generally considered a disappointment.

That means the streak of Jurassic tales making nine figures in the traditional weekend is endangered. I’ll say high 70s to low 80s is likelier. However, the five-day could top $130 million.

Jurassic World Rebirth opening weekend prediction: $80.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $133 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

30th Critics’ Choice Awards Reaction

The 30th Critics’ Choice Awards aired this evening and this body had some tricks up their sleeve with some seriously surprising selections. Leading up to Best Picture, you would’ve been right to count out Sean Baker’s Anora. It had emerged victorious nowhere, even in the races where it was supposed to like Original Screenplay. I listed it as my runner-up to The Brutalist. Fun fact: this is your first CCA BP to not receive any other wins.

Let’s not start writing those Anora will take the Oscar BP columns. While it is certainly a possibility, just half of the previous 10 CCA BP recipients repeated with the Academy. If it manages to grab PGA tomorrow, it could rightfully become the soft frontrunner.

I went 13 for 21 overall in my picks. While Anora‘s sole win in BP was unexpected, the biggest shocker was easily in Director. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) was widely anticipated to sweep through the season and then CCA went and named Jon M. Chu for Wicked. He’s not even nominated for the Oscar. When’s the last time the Critics’ pick wasn’t up for the Academy’s trophy? That would be Ben Affleck for Argo and before that, you must go back to 2002 when they gave it to Steven Spielberg for his double feature of Minority Report and Catch Me If You Can.

My against the odds selection was Mikey Madison (Anora) over Demi Moore in The Substance. I should’ve gone bigger with my Anora upset calls. Moore did get Actress just as with the Globes. In fact, all the acting winners are also Globe takers: Adrien Brody in The Brutalist for its sole prize tonight in Actor and supporting players Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez and Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. The Moore/Brody/Saldaña/Culkin combo could absolutely be the Oscar quartet and they are certainly the favorites.

As for other categories, here’s where I was right:

Conclave in Adapted Screenplay; Emilia Pérez as Foreign Language Film and The Wild Robot in Animated Feature; A Real Pain is Best Comedy though it tied with Deadpool & Wolverine (so I guess I was half right); Wicked in Costume Design and Production Design; The Substance for Hair & Makeup, Challengers for Original Score; “El Mal” from Pérez in Original Song; and Dune: Part Two for Visual Effects.

Where I went wrong:

The Substance scored an out of nowhere win over BP Anora in Original Screenplay. Maisy Stella (My Old Ass) is the Best Young Actor/Actress instead of Izaac Wang in Dídi. Conclave is Best Ensemble over Wicked. In Cinematography, it’s Nosferatu and not The Brutalist. Challengers took the Editing category and not Anora.

What’s it all mean for BP? The Brutalist could’ve solidified frontrunner status tonight and it didn’t. The fact that Anora didn’t win anywhere else? Confusing. And we do have 4 legit acting favorites. Let’s see if PGA and DGA can muddy the waters tomorrow…

Here’s the win total for the various pictures in contention

3 Wins

Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked

2 Wins

Challengers, Conclave, A Real Pain

1 Win

Anora, The Brutalist, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, My Old Ass, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot

Oscar Predictions: Music by John Williams

Music by John Williams starts playing on Disney+ tomorrow after premiering at the AFI Fest last week. The documentary centers on the legendary title subject composer and Steven Spielberg protege who is a 54-time Oscar nominee (second only to Walt Disney) and 5x winner. Laurent Bouzereau directs and he’s best known for numerous making of pics for features including Spielberg’s Close Encounters of the Third Kind, Raiders of the Lost Ark, E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial, and Jurassic Park (all of which Williams scored). He also recently made the Faye Dunaway centered doc Faye.

All reviews are fresh at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The Metacritic score is 72 and that tells more of the story. While positive, there’s plenty of write-ups calling it more of a serviceable and satisfactory tribute. I don’t think that’ll be enough for a Documentary Feature nod about the man who’s been to many a ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: September 5

Tim Fehlbaum’s September 5 covers similar ground as Steven Spielberg’s 2005 Best Picture nominee Munich regarding the 1972 Olympics hostage crisis. This version, which premiered at Venice and made its way over to Telluride, tells it from the perspective of the ABC broadcasting crew covering the games. John Magaro, Peter Sarsgaard, Ben Chaplin, and Leonie Benesch star.

Reviews from Italy and Colorado are impressive as the pic has emerged as a festival sleeper in recent days. Part of its flying under the radar status is the current lack of a stateside distributor. That should change soon. The question is whether September 5 gets dated for a 2024 release or if the buyer waits for 2025 consideration. Either way, I wouldn’t sleep on its chances for Picture, Original Screenplay, and Editing if it is granted a serious campaign. In 2003, Sarsgaard likely barely missed the Supporting Actor cut for Shattered Glass. Of the main cast, he might receive the heftiest push as legendary sports executive Roone Arledge. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Saturday Night

Jason Reitman had a one-two punch of consecutive Best Picture nominees with Juno and Up in the Air in 2007 and 2009. Some follow-ups generated solid reviews (Young Adult, Tully) while others (Labor Day, The Front Runner) drew more mixed reactions. None have received significant awards buzz in the past decade and a half. Will that change with Saturday Night?

The Sony Pictures dramedy is slated for release on October 11th which is the 49th anniversary of the iconic sketch show it celebrates. This recounts the chaotic moments leading up to the premiere of Saturday Night Live. Gabriel LaBelle (who essentially played young Steven Spielberg in 2022’s The Fabelmans) is 30-year-old Lorne Michaels. The extensive supporting cast (some playing 1975 legends with others as future legends) includes Cooper Hoffman, Rachel Sennott, Cory Michael Smith, Ella Hunt, Dylan O’Brien, Emily Fairn, Matt Wood, Lamorne Morris, Kim Matula, Finn Wolfhard, Nicholas Braun (as Andy Kaufman and Jim Henson), Andrew Barth Feldman, Willem Dafoe, Matthew Rhys, J.K. Simmons, and Jon Batiste.

Having just played Telluride and hitting Toronto shortly, early word-of-mouth is primarily on the fresh side. There are some high profile reviews of the thumbs down variety. I would say Saturday Night stands a shot at a Best Picture nomination, but it is a coin flip at the moment as we await how competitors pan out. Down ballot categories like Costume Design and (especially) Film Editing could occur especially if it sneaks into BP.

As for the cast, LaBelle is getting quality ink. Yet some of the strongest notices are going to Sennott as writer Rosie Schuster and Smith as Chevy Chase. I’m skeptical any of the performers break into their respective categories though the SAG Awards could certainly nominate the cast in their Ensemble race. Speaking of other shows, the Golden Globes could put it up for Musical/Comedy assuming Sony campaigns for it there and LaBelle could make the Actor (Musical/Comedy) quintet.

At the Academy Awards, there is almost always a picture or two that is up solely for its screenplay. This is a distinct possibility with Saturday Night and its original screenplay from Reitman and Gil Kenan. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars: The Case of Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our fourth filmmaker in Best Director and that’s Martin Scorsese in Killers of the Flower Moon. Let’s get to it!

Previous Directing Oscar Nominations:

Raging Bull (1980); The Last Temptation of Christ (1988); GoodFellas (1990); Gangs of New York (2002); The Aviator (2004); The Departed (2006, WON); Hugo (2011); The Wolf of Wall Street (2013); The Irishman (2019)

The Case for Martin Scorsese:

Being one of the most celebrated directors in the history of the medium helps. For this epic historical drama, Scorsese nabs a 10th nod for his behind the camera work (moving ahead of Steven Spielberg’s 9). That’s second only to William Wyler’s 12. DGA, Globe, and Critics Choice mentions preceded this.

The Case Against Martin Scorsese:

It’s Christopher Nolan’s year as Oppenheimer glides to a BP crowning. That should easily correlate to this race. Scorsese also missed the BAFTA cut.

The Verdict:

The stats will be 1 for 10 for Marty when it comes to victories as Nolan is taking this.

My Case Of posts will continue with Emma Stone in Poor Things…

Oscar Predictions: The Color Purple

The Color Purple has existed for over four decades via book (by Alice Walker), film (Steven Spielberg’s 1985 adaptation), and Broadway play (beginning in 2005). At each turn, it’s generated awards attention. The book won a Pulitzer. The first cinematic rendering landed 11 Academy nominations (though it didn’t win any of them). The first iteration of the play also managed 11 Tony nods and a single victory in lead actress while the 2015 revival nabbed four nominations and two trophies (including Cynthia Erivo in lead actress).

On Christmas Day, the screen treatment of the stage musical arrives in theaters. Blitz Bazawule directs with a cast including Fantasia Barrino, Taraji P. Henson, Danielle Brooks, Colman Domingo, Corey Hawkins, H.E.R., Ciara, Halle Bailey, Aunjanue Ellis, Jon Batiste, Louis Gossett Jr., and David Alan Grier. Spielberg and Oprah Winfrey (who played Sofia in the ’85 adaptation) are producers.

Given the awards heavy past of the source material, Purple has been seen as a potentially significant Oscar hopeful since the project was announced. The review embargo has lapsed (rather late I must say) with a solid 85% Rotten Tomatoes score.

That said, much of the critical reaction is of the *** variety and not ****. Perhaps the biggest snub of the Golden Globe nominations was this not receiving a mention in Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy). Days later, the Critics Choice nods threw Purple a lifeline when it made their Top 10 features.

Any way you cut it, Purple‘s inclusion in the Oscar BP ten is far from certain. I had it listed at #10 in my latest round of predictions on Sunday. If this manages to make the SAG quintet when their nominations are announced for Best Ensemble, that would be another feather in its cap. Though don’t be surprised at all if it misses the BP cut. Bazawule’s direction is highly unlikely to be mentioned (even Spielberg couldn’t get in that race nearly 40 years back). Same goes for the Adapted Screenplay.

Purple will manage to get other nominations. The most certain is Danielle Brooks for Supporting Actress. For months, I had her listed in 1st to win but I recently switched the top spot to Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers. Brooks is playing the same role Winfrey played and got an Academy nod for. In 1985, Whoopi Goldberg was nominated for Actress as Celie. Fantasia Barrino hopes to replicate that success. It’s doable, but competition is fierce. I had her in 7th place on the outside looking in last weekend. 7th place is also where I had Taraji P. Henson in Supporting Actress as Shug. Margaret Avery was nominated for her portrayal in ’85 though Henson has already missed key precursors like the Globes and Critics Choice.

Finally, there are down the line races where it could pop up. This includes Original Song (“Keep It Movin”), Production Design, and Costume Design. It won’t generate 11 mentions like the Spielberg pic. Four or five is more feasible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…