When Kate Winslet and Saoirse Ronan are romancing one another in a 19th century set costume drama, you better believe there’s going to be Oscar speculation. This is for good reason. Between the two performers, they’ve collected a staggering 11 Academy nods. There’s just one victory among them.
Francis Lee’s Ammonite has premiered this weekend at the Toronto Film Festival. As mentioned, it casts Winslet as a paleontologist who strikes the fancy of Ronan’s wealthy wife. It is Lee’s follow-up to his hailed 2017 pic God’s Own Country.
Critical reception from up north does include some rave reviews. There are others that are decidedly more mixed and even negative. The Rotten Tomatoes score of 64% puts a Best Picture and Directing and Original Screenplay nomination into serious question. Right now, I would say it’s certainly iffy.
Tech nods like Costume Design, Score, and Production Design are feasible. Yet the main chatter centers on the leads. The likelihood is that Winslet will contend in lead Actress with Ronan in supporting. Winslet would be scoring her eighth nomination in 25 years. Her lone win was for 2008’s The Reader. Based on buzz, she appears poised to grab it. That said, let’s keep an eye on how competition plays out in the coming weeks. Frances McDormand (Nomadland) seems like a shoo-in for inclusion. There’s other potential heavy hitters in the wings, including Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Michele Pfeiffer (French Exit), and Jennifer Hudson (Respect) to name just three.
Ronan has achieved 4 nominations since 2007 for Atonement, Brooklyn, Lady Bird, and Little Women. She’s yet to walk to the podium. There’s a general feeling that her time is coming and I have had her ranked #1 in Supporting Actress since I began my weekly prediction posts last month. Now I’m wondering whether she even makes the final five. It is still a strong possibility, but I highly doubt you’ll see her atop the estimates this coming Thursday. I would say right now that 2020’s Supporting Actress winner probably hasn’t her movie screened yet.
Bottom line: the reception for Ammonite in Toronto raises more questions than it answers about its chances. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Oscar winning director Danny Boyle, who clearly enjoys playing in multiple genres, tries his hand at a musical comedy next weekend with Yesterday. The high concept pic puts forth the theory that only one aspiring songwriter (Himesh Patel) rememberers The Beatles and cashes in on the world’s memory loss. Costars include Lily James, Kate McKinnon, and Ed Sheeran.
Mr. Boyle, as mentioned, has a varied filmography that includes Trainspotting and its sequel, 28DaysLater and its follow-up, Best Picture winner SlumdogMillionaire, and SteveJobs. When Yesterday premiered at the Tribeca Film Festival, its so-so reception killed any potential awards chatter. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 68%.
While there’s legions of Fab Four fans out there, I don’t see this turning into a summer sleeper. I believe this will struggle to reach $10 million.
Yesterday opening weekend prediction: $9.1 million
Premiering at the Tribeca Film Festival over the weekend, the comedic fantasy Yesterday comes with plenty of behind the scenes players with awards credentials. The high concept story imagines a world where the songs of The Beatles have all been forgotten, except by a young aspiring songwriter (Himesh Patel). It’s his duty to re-educate the populace about the Fab Four. Costars include Lily James, Kate McKinnon, and Ed Sheeran (playing himself).
The aforementioned pedigree starts at the top. Director Danny Boyle has had one of the most eclectic filmographies in memory. His works include a Best Picture winner (2008’s SlumdogMillionaire) and a nominee two years later (127Hours). They also include cult favorites such as Trainspotting, the acclaimed zombie tales 28DaysLater and 28WeeksLater, and sci-fi thriller Sunshine. There’s also SteveJobs, which never materialized as the awards contender that prognosticators thought it could be.
Additionally, the screenplay comes from Richard Curtis. He received an Oscar nod 25 years ago for FourWeddingsandaFuneral. Other written works of note include NottingHill, BridgetJones’sDiary, and LoveActually.
As you can see, it’s pretty clear why Yesterday could be looked at as an Oscar player today due to the talent involved. Yet after its festival debut ahead of its June release, reviews are telling a different story. Some are positive, but others are decidedly not. Some critics are breaking out their best Beatles puns with one stating it never quite comes together.
Bottom line: we’ll see if Yesterday can manage to be a profitable crowd pleaser, but don’t expect this to be a factor come with nominations down the line. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
My look back at the major Oscar categories from 1990 to the present arrives at Best Actor today! If you missed my posts covering Actress and the Supporting races, you can find them here:
As with those previous entries, I am picking the three least surprising winners of the last 28 years, along with the three biggest upsets. Additionally, you’ll see my personal picks for strongest and weakest fields overall.
As a primer, here are the winners from 1990 to now:
1990 – Jeremy Irons, ReversalofFortune
1991 – Anthony Hopkins, TheSilenceoftheLambs
1992 – Al Pacino, ScentofaWoman
1993 – Tom Hanks, Philadelphia
1994 – Tom Hanks, ForrestGump
1995 – Nicolas Cage, LeavingLasVegas
1996 – Geoffrey Rush, Shine
1997 – Jack Nicholson, AsGoodAsItGets
1998 – Roberto Benigni, LifeisBeautiful
1999 – Kevin Spacey, AmericanBeauty
2000 – Russell Crowe, Gladiator
2001 – Denzel Washington, TrainingDay
2002 – Adrien Brody, ThePianist
2003 – Sean Penn, MysticRiver
2004 – Jamie Foxx, Ray
2005 – Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
2006 – Forest Whitaker, TheLastKingofScotland
2007 – Daniel Day-Lewis, ThereWillBeBlood
2008 – Sean Penn, Milk
2009 – Jeff Bridges, CrazyHeart
2010 – Colin Firth, TheKing’sSpeech
2011 – Jean Dujardin, TheArtist
2012 – Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
2013 – Matthew McConaughey, DallasBuyersClub
2014 – Eddie Redmayne, TheTheoryofEverything
2015 – Leonardo DiCaprio, TheRevenant
2016 – Casey Affleck, ManchesterbytheSea
2017 – Gary Oldman, DarkestHour
Let’s begin with the three that I’m deeming as the non-surprise winners. Whittling this down to that number was a challenge. The double wins by Hanks and Penn and even last year’s winner Oldman could’ve easily been named here, too. Here goes…
3. Al Pacino, ScentofaWoman
The legendary thespian was 0 for 6 when it came to nominations and wins entering 1992. He picked up his 7th and 8th nods that year with his supporting role in GlengarryGlenRoss and lead role as a blind former colonel in this Martin Brest directed drama. By Oscar night, it was clear he was finally going to make that trip to the podium.
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, TheRevenant
Like Pacino, DiCaprio had been an Academy bridesmaid before… four times. His fifth nod for TheRevenant guaranteed he’d finally be a winner against weak competition (more on that below).
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
I could have named the Method actor’s victory in 2007 for ThereWillBeBlood as well, but his win five years later as the nation’s 16th President edges it out. From the moment the Steven Spielberg project was announced, Day-Lewis was the odds on favorite and it never changed.
Now – my selections for the upsets:
3. Anthony Hopkins, TheSilenceoftheLambs
While it might seem an obvious win nearly 30 years later, Nick Nolte’s work in ThePrinceofTides had nabbed him the Golden Globe. Additionally, there was some controversy about Sir Anthony’s inclusion in the lead race due to his approximate 16 minutes of screen time. This is truly evidence of a performance so towering that it couldn’t be ignored.
2. Roberto Benigni, LifeisBeautiful
The Italian director/writer/actor was an underdog against competition that included Nick Nolte (once again) for Affliction and Ian McKellen in GodsandMonsters. Mr. Benigni seemed a bit shocked himself when his name was called, as he famously bounded exuberantly to the stage.
1. Adrien Brody, ThePianist
The smart money in 2002 was with Jack Nicholson in AboutSchmidt or Daniel Day-Lewis in GangsofNewYork. Brody’s win was pretty shocking, as was the giant smooch he planted on presenter Halle Berry.
When it comes to overall fields, I’m going recent history with both. For strongest, I’ll give it to 2012. That’s the year Day-Lewis won for Lincoln. All other nominees were rock solid as well with Bradley Cooper (SilverLiningsPlaybook), Hugh Jackman (LesMiserables), Joaquin Phoenix (TheMaster), and Denzel Washington (Flight).
For weakest, I’m picking 2015. This is the aforementioned year of DiCaprio’s overdue win. The rest of the field, however, was a bit lacking. It consisted of Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), Matt Damon (TheMartian), Michael Fassbender (SteveJobs), and Eddie Redmayne (TheDanishGirl).
And there’s your Actor look back, folks! Keep an eye out for Best Picture soon as the final post in this series…
The Sundance Film Festival of 2017 has come and gone, but this blogger is still sorting out the potential Oscar buzz coming from it. Even though it’s the earliest fest, Sundance has a habit of showcasing film or two and performers that get Academy nods a year later.
Perhaps no other picture generated more buzz this time around than Luca Guadagnino’s CallMebyYourName, a gay love story set in Italy during the 1980s. Based on an acclaimed 2007 novel by Andre Aciman, Name stars Timothee Chalamet (a relative unknown who’s appeared on Showtime’s “Homeland”), Armie Hammer, and Michael Stuhlbarg, a fine character actor who’s popped up in everything from SteveJobs to Arrival to DoctorStrange to MissSloane as of late.
Buzz on this romance is terrific thus far and it sports a 100% current Rotten Tomatoes rating. It’s leaving Sundance with the strongest potential for Oscar voter notice along with Mudbound (which I already posted about). Picture, Director, Actor (Chalamet) and Supporting Actor (Hammer or Stuhlbarg) appear to be in play, as well as Adapted Screenplay.
Of course, it’s very early but Name appears to be a real contender.
One week from tonight, the 88th Annual Academy Awards will air with Chris Rock hosting and unlike some other years, there is real and legitimate intrigue as to what will win the big prize in Best Picture. Meanwhile, other categories have strong front runners but upsets are always possible. So with seven days to go, here are my FINAL predictions for who will win in each categories, with the exception of the three short film races. Here we go!
BEST PICTURE
For Room, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, Brooklyn and Bridge of Spies – it’s an honor to be nominated. This is truly a close race between the trio of The Big Short, The Revenant and Spotlight and any one of them could easily emerge victorious. All have won important precursors. Of the three, my gut is that Short is running third in this tight derby. All week my inclination has been to pick Spotlight, but The Revenant seems to have the hot hand in these late proceedings.
FINAL PICK: The Revenant
Runner-Up: Spotlight
BEST DIRECTOR
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu looks poised to win his second directing prize in a row after 2014’s Birdman for his work in The Revenant. If so, he would be the first auteur to do that in 65 years. In my estimation, only George Miller could be an upset winner for Mad Max, but that’s doubtful. Inarritu has won the Golden Globe and the DGA and is a safe bet.
FINAL PICK: Inarritu
Runner-Up: Miller
BEST ACTOR
Speaking of safe bets involving The Revenant, Leonardo DiCaprio at last looks poised to win a gold statue. He is the heavy favorite over competitors Matt Damon, Michael Fassbender, Eddie Redmayne and Bryan Cranston.
FINAL PICK: DiCaprio
Runner-Up: Ummmm… Cranston? Seriously, Leo is a major favorite
BEST ACTRESS
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn) and Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) could be spoilers, but the front runner is definitely Brie Larson’s turn in Room.
FINAL PICK: Larson
Runner-Up: Ronan
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
If the Academy doesn’t go for nostalgia here, you might see Mark Rylance win for Bridge of Spies. Yet I do believe Sylvester Stallone will knock out his foes for Creed.
FINAL PICK: Stallone
Runner-Up: Rylance
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs) has won some precursors and Rooney Mara (Carol) stands an outside shot, but Alicia Vikander had a big 2015 and I’ll pick her for The Danish Girl.
FINAL PICK: Vikander
Runner-Up: Winslet
For the remainder of the categories, I’m simply listing my picks with the runner-up:
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
FINAL PICK: Spotlight
Runner-Up: Inside Out
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
FINAL PICK: The Big Short
Runner-Up: Room
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
FINAL PICK: Inside Out
Runner-Up: Anomalisa
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
FINAL PICK: Son of Saul
Runner-Up: Mustang
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
FINAL PICK: Cartel Land
Runner-Up: Amy
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
FINAL PICK: The Hateful Eight
Runner-Up: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
FINAL PICK: “Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground
Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs is a masterwork in editing, use of music, and fine performances doused with the dialogue that is unmistakably that of Aaron Sorkin. The man in the title, played by Michael Fassbender, is presented as he’s often said to have been: frustrating. There are certainly times in this picture where the audience will be angry at Mr. Jobs and Sorkin’s script doesn’t sugarcoat his considerable flaws, which include his inability to acknowledge his own daughter. At the same time, this is a work that appreciates its central character, imperfections and all.
The film is constructed much like a play and in three acts centered around the launch of the Apple Founder’s products. In 1984, it’s the Macintosh. In 1988, the failed NeXT computer after Steve had been dumped from his own company. In 1998, the iMac which helped lead to iEverything and market domination. Through this 14 year journey, we meet the people who populate this temperamental genius’s life. There’s his marketing exec Joanna (Kate Winslet), constantly by Steve’s side and witness to historical triumphs and her boss’s failures. Steve Wozniak (Seth Rogen) is the jilted company cofounder who kept Apple afloat for many years while Jobs got all the credit. John Sculley (a typically rock solid Jeff Daniels) is the CEO who is both an enemy and father figure. And the biggest through line comes from Lisa, the daughter that Steve can’t bring himself to properly father.
Steve Jobs eschews the conventional cliches of a biopic, just as the man who hated conventional may have preferred. While Fassbender doesn’t exactly resemble Steve, his performance is quite an accomplishment and succeeds in nailing down his complexities. The loyal yet often flustered Joanna is brought to life wonderfully by Winslet. Sorkin’s well known snappy dialogue should please his many admirers and the story structure is creative enough that you probably won’t quibble with reported historical inaccuracies. Truth be told, no two hour tale could properly nail presenting the enigmatic title subject, but Steve Jobs the film has a talented team doing their level best.
Love or hate him or (like most) appreciative and confounded by him, this picture fascinatingly is another puzzle piece of the man whose existence constantly is at our fingertips.
This evening, the 23rd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards airs and it will likely provide further hints of the direction the Academy may go in with their acting races. As I did with the Globes and will with the Oscars, here are my predictions on what and who will win!
BEST CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE
Nominees
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Trumbo
Prediction: It’s important to note that SAG is honoring best cast and NOT Best Picture. Therefore the Academy’s Best Picture and this category have only matched 10 out of 22 times. This really appears to be a horse race between Short and Spotlight and it truly go either way. I’ll pick Spotlight for the win which would solidify a true three movie race with Short and The Revenant for the Oscar.
BEST ACTOR
Nominees
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
PREDICTION: Oscar and SAG have matched 17 of 22 times here, which is the best margin of all. This race will further determine whether Leo is the true front runner and my suspicion is it will. Leo all the way.
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back
Prediction: 15 for 22 match with Oscar here. Larson keeps racking up trophies and is the Academy front runner and I suspect she’ll win here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Jacob Tremblay, Room
Prediction: 14 for 22 Academy match. This is the most interesting category of the night. Only 2 of the nominees here (Bale, Rylance) are Oscar nominated and the potential Academy favorite (Creed’s Sylvester Stallone) is nowhere to be found. This race could certainly provide an upset, but it’s fair to say Bale and Rylance are the most likely winners. In a tough one, I’ll give the slight edge to Rylance.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Predicton: 13 of 22 Oscar match. Winslet was a surprise Globe winner and if she prevails here, we all may need to rethink our Oscar prognostications. Here’s another race where an upset is possible, but I’ll go with Miss Vikander for the win.
It’s been two days since the Oscar nominations came out, allowing some time to pass to digest what and who is being recognized. After numerous posts prognosticating the nominations, we now arrive at this question: What Will Win??
Today brings my initial round of guesses on the movies and performers that I believe will get their gold statues. I will definitely have a second and final round posted probably two to three days before the February ceremony.
Let’s get to it:
BEST PICTURE
First off, there are four selections that basically should be happy with the nomination: Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, The Martian, and Room. Mad Max: Fury Road is a major long shot. That leaves a three picture race and indeed it is. Between The Big Short, The Revenant, and Spotlight – this is truly a competitive category this time around. I’m currently giving the ever so slight edge to Spotlight, which has been considered the soft front runner for a while now. Be warned though: the other two are hot on its heels.
PREDICTED WINNER: Spotlight
BEST DIRECTOR
Tom McCarthy’s work in Spotlight could be honored with outside chances for Adam McKay (The Big Short) or George Miller (Mad Max). Lenny Abrahamson’s surprise nomination for Room succeeded in screwing up people’s predictions. He has no chance to win. Yet I’ll go with the Academy honoring Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s direction in The Revenant, just one year after he received the prize for Birdman.
PREDICTED WINNER: Inarritu
BEST ACTOR
We will make this simple: it appears that Leonardo DiCaprio is finally going to win a statue for The Revenant. He is the very heavy favorite and if he doesn’t emerge victorious, it would probably constitute the largest upset of the evening.
PREDICTED WINNER: DiCaprio
BEST ACTRESS
Like lead Actor, there is a front runner here with Brie Larson in Room. Unlike Actor, the possibility for an upset is real with both Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) and Saoirse Ronan. I’ll stick with Larson though. Cate Blanchett (Carol) and Jennifer Lawrence (Joy) seem like non factors.
PREDICTED WINNER: Larson
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
This was an incredibly difficult category to predict with about 12 performances in the running. Now that we know the nominees, this is a race ripe for an upset. Any of the five – Christian Bale (The Big Short), Tom Hardy (The Revenant), Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), Sylvester Stallone (Creed) – are feasible recipients. Rylance has won some precursors, but like the Golden Globes, I’ll project that sentimentality wins out with Stallone standing center stage.
PREDICTED WINNER: Stallone
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
No major front runner here but Alicia Vikander had a great year with another heralded role in Ex Machina. I’ll predict her work in The Danish Girl eeks out a win over Rooney Mara (Carol), Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight), Globes winner Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs), and Rachel McAdams (Spotlight).
PREDICTED WINNER: Vikander
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Short and sweet here – Spotlight is the heavy front runner here and I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t win here. I’m much more confident in predicting a victory for it here than in Picture.
PREDICTED WINNER: Spotlight
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Martian or Room have outside shots, but this looks like a win for The Big Short.
PREDICTED WINNER: The Big Short
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Anomalisa has its hardcore fans, but Pixar’s Inside Out is the big favorite.
PREDICTED WINNER: Inside Out
BEST FOREIGN FILM
Easy pick. Son of Saul is a huge front runner. Mustang is the only completion.
PREDICTED WINNER: Son of Saul
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Amy, chronicling the career of the late singer Amy Winehouse, is the favorite. For now, however, I’m going with an upset pick in the form of Cartel Land.
PREDICTED WINNER: Cartel Land
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The legendary John Williams could be in the running for his latest Star Wars score, but I’ll predict the Academy honors another legend: Ennio Morricone for The Hateful Eight.
Was very surprised to see “See You Again” from Furious 7 snubbed. To me, that would have been the main competition for “Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground, performed by Lady Gaga.
PREDICTED WINNER: “Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground
BEST SOUND EDITING
I believe these sound categories will come down to a battle between Mad Max and Star Wars, with The Revenant as a spoiler. For now, I’m splitting the difference.
PREDICTED WINNER: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
BEST SOUND MIXING
See above.
PREDICTED WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Once again, I see this as a contest between Chewbacca and Max. I’ll give Max the slight edge.
PREDICTED WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
This is another tough one with Mad Max maintaining a small edge over The Revenant and The Martian.
PREDICTED WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Hateful Eight stands a chance here, as does Mad Max. However, I believe Emmanuel Lubezki will take home his third Oscar in a row for The Revenant.
PREDICTED WINNER: The Revenant
BEST EDITING
This race often matches Picture and could here with Spotlight. The Big Short, Mad Max, and The Revenant are in the mix. This is practically a coin flip for me right now so don’t be shocked if this changes.
PREDICTED WINNER: The Big Short
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Only three nominees here and Mad Max and The Revenant are likely the only two winner possibilities.
PREDICTED WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Sandy Powell could split her own vote between Carol and Cinderella. Mad Max and The Danish Girl are in the running, but I’ll go with Powell and her work in Carol.
Here we are folks! After numerous posts prognosticating on what and whom will be nominated for the Academy Awards honoring 2015’s best, we will all collectively find out tomorrow morning. This Oscar season has been filled with much intrigue and a great deal of uncertainty.
Many questions abound:
Will the performances of Rooney Mara (Carol) and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) be recognized in lead Actress or Supporting Actress? That query alone makes predicting both of those races tricky this year. I will go with both being recognized in Supporting, but if Oscar voters go lead with one or both, it changes the whole dynamic. There’s also the possibility that Vikander could be honored in Supporting for Ex Machina and not Danish, which adds to the confusion.
Will the Academy nominate their first Star Wars pic (The Force Awakens) since the original 38 years ago? It’s already become the highest grossing film of all time and could certainly lead to even more eyeballs watching the telecast. That said, I have it narrowly missing the cut.
Will Leonardo DiCaprio finally win the gold statue for his work in The Revenant? Precursor awards including the Golden Globes point to yes. A nomination seems assured.
Is Spotlight truly the front runner or not? Many other possibilities are out there for an “upset” win. It is, at best, a soft front runner.
I’ll finally note that my predictions reflect a belief that Straight Outta Compton will be shut out. This goes against what several other predictors are saying and many have it being recognized in Best Picture. Another high profile offering that I have coming up empty: Black Mass.
As I’ve done for the last several weeks, I’m listing my predicted nominees and other possibilities in each category by likelihood of being nominated. Just because I have something listed as #1 doesn’t mean I’m predicting it to win (I’ll have my first blog post up predicting the winners this weekend). In parentheses after each entry is how far each predicted nominee/possibility has fallen from my previous predictions last week. On Thursday evening, I’ll have a post up letting you know how well (or not so much) I did.
Let’s get to it, shall we? My FINAL predictions:
Best Picture
As I see it, there are 21 films vying for anywhere from 5-10 spots. The magic number is usually 9 (last year it was 8). I’m going with 9 this year, though I believe 10 is more probable than 8. And strangely enough, my predicted nine has stayed the same over the course of the last month or so. Straight Outta Compton, Sicario, and even The Force Awakens have made some waves of late, but I still have them narrowly missing.
Spotlight (No Change)
The Big Short (No Change)
The Revenant (+3)
Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Carol (+1)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Room (-4)
Brooklyn (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
10. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
12. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
13. Sicario (+1)
14. Inside Out (-1)
15. Steve Jobs (+1)
16. Ex Machina (+2)
17. Trumbo (No Change)
18. Beasts of No Nation (-3)
19. Son of Saul (+1)
20. The Danish Girl (-1)
21. Creed (No Change)
Best Director
Tuesday’s Directors Guild of America usually provides a reasonably reliable snap shot of at least three or four of the nominees that will end up being recognized here. Their picks were Tom McCarthy, Ridley Scott, George Miller, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, and Adam McKay. Of those, McKay seems the most vulnerable (with Miller and Scott behind). I’ll keep my prediction for Todd Haynes in and there’s certainly a chance there’s a shocker nominee as we sometimes see in this category.
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (+1)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (+1)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (+1)
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (-3)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)
7. Adam McKay, The Big Short (-1)
8. Denis Villenueve, Sicario (+5)
9. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
10. F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton (+1)
11. John Crowley, Brooklyn (-2)
12. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-2)
13. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
14. Jay Roach, Trumbo (Previously Unranked)
15. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation (-1)
16. Alex Garland, Ex Machina (Previously Unranked)
17. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (-2)
18. Ryan Coogler, Creed (Previously Unranked)
19. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs (Previously Unranked)
20. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl (Previously Unranked)
Best Actor
This race is increasingly looking like ‘The Leo Show” with Mr. DiCaprio likely to nab (finally) his first Oscar. Only Leo seems to be a totally safe bet (though it would be a surprise to me if Redmayne and Fassbender don’t get in and probably Cranston too). I would say numbers 5-8 are practically interchangeable while anything 9 or below would be a fairly big surprise.
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (No Change)
Matt Damon, The Martian (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Carell, The Big Short (-1)
7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)
8. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (No Change)
9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (No Change)
10. Michael Caine, Youth (No Change)
11. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (+1)
12. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (-1)
Best Actress
As previously discussed, all the rules go out the window if either Rooney Mara or Alicia Vikander are recognized here instead of in Supporting Actress. That said, I feel pretty confident about Larson, Ronan, and Blanchett. The rest? Not so much.
Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (+1)
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
7. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (+1)
8. Emily Blunt, Sicario (+3)
9. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams (+1)
10. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back (-1)
11. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van (Previously Unranked)
Best Supporting Actor
Bottom line: I feel like Rylance and Stallone are the only safe bets here. This category has been wide open for quite some time and all 12 performers listed here could get in. Very curious to see how this works out come tomorrow.
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Sylvester Stallone, Creed (+1)
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (-1)
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (+1)
Christian Bale, The Big Short (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (No Change)
7. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (No Change)
8. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (No Change)
9. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (No Change)
10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)
11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-1)
12. Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton (Previously Unranked)
Best Supporting Actress
Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander seem like safe bets – as long as they’re nominated here and not in Actress. Kate Winslet (fresh off a Globe win) and Jennifer Jason Leigh should play here, too. The fifth slot is truly up for grabs, I feel.
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Rooney Mara, Carol (No Change)
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (+1)
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (-1)
Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jane Fonda, Youth (-1)
7. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (No Change)
8. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+1)
9. Joan Allen, Room (-1)
10. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (No Change)
11. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)
12. Marion Cotillard, MacBeth (Previously Unranked)
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight (No Change)
Inside Out (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
The Hateful Eight (-1)
Sicario (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ex Machina (-1)
7. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)
8. Love and Mercy (No Change)
9. Son of Saul (+2)
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short (No Change)
Carol (No Change)
Room (No Change)
Steve Jobs (+1)
Brooklyn (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (No Change)
7. The Revenant (+1)
8. Beasts of No Nation (+1)
9. Trumbo (-2)
10. Mad Max: Fury Road (Previously Unranked)
11. Anomalisa (No Change)
Best Animated Feature
Inside Out (No Change)
Anomalisa (No Change)
Shaun the Sheep Movie (No Change)
Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet (No Change)
The Peanuts Movie (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Good Dinosaur (-1)
7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)
8. Minions (Previously Unranked)
Best Documentary Feature (First Time Predictions)
Amy
The Look of Silence
Winter on Fire
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
He Named Me Malala
Other Possibilities:
6. Listen to Me Marlon
7. Best of Enemies
8. The Hunting Ground
9. Where to Invade Next
10. Heart of the Dog
Best Foreign Language Film (First Time Predictions)
Son of Saul
Mustang
A War
The Brand New Testament
Embrace of the Serpent
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fencer
7. Labyrinth of Lies
8. Theeb
9. Viva
Best Production Design
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Carol (-2)
The Revenant (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brooklyn (-1)
7. The Martian (Previously Unranked)
8. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+3)
9. The Hateful Eight (-3)
10. Cinderella (-3)
Best Cinematography
The Revenant (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Sicario (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carol (+1)
7. Son of Saul (+2)
8. The Martian (-2)
9. The Assassin (-1)
10. Spotlight (Previously Unranked)
Best Costume Design
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Carol (No Change)
Cinderella (+1)
Brooklyn (-1)
Far from the Madding Crowd (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mad Max: Fury Road (+6)
7. The Hateful Eight (-1)
8. Suffragette (-1)
9. The Revenant (No Change)
10. Mr. Holmes (Previously Unranked)
Best Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Big Short (No Change)
Spotlight (+2)
The Revenant (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (-3)
7. Sicario (+3)
8. Steve Jobs (-2)
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+3)
10. The Hateful Eight (-1)
11. Room (-3)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (+1)
Other Possibilities:
4. Black Mass (-1)
5. Mr. Holmes (No Change)
6. Concussion (No Change)
7. Legend (No Change)
Best Sound Mixing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (+3)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
Sicario (No Change)
The Martian (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
7. Bridge of Spies (Previously Unranked)
8. Jurassic World (-1)
Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
The Martian (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario (-1)
7. Jurassic World (+1)
8. Bridge of Spies (Previously Unranked)
Best Visual Effects
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
Jurassic World (No Change)
The Martian (No Change)
The Revenant (Previously Unranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ex Machina (-1)
7. The Walk (No Change)
8. Ant-Man (Previously Unranked)
9. Avengers: Age of Ultron (-1)
10. In the Heart of the Sea (-4)
Best Score
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Carol (+1)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+2)
Bridge of Spies (-2)
The Danish Girl (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spotlight (No Change)
7. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Best Original Song
“See You Again” from Furious 7 (+2)
“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (-1)
“Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (+4)
“Simple Song #3” from Youth (No Change)
“So Long” from Concussion (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
7. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
These FINAL predictions reflect a belief that the following pictures will receive this number of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Revenant
9 Nominations
Mad Max: Fury Road
8 Nominations
Carol
7 Nominations
Bridge of Spies
6 Nominations
The Martian
5 Nominations
The Danish Girl, The Hateful Eight
4 Nominations
The Big Short, Brooklyn, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3 Nominations
Room, Sicario, Steve Jobs
2 Nominations
Inside Out, Trumbo
1 Nomination
Beasts of No Nation, Cinderella, Concussion, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Hunting Ground, Joy, Jurassic World, Love and Mercy, The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared, Spectre, Youth
And there you have it, folks! My final Oscar predictions! I’ll have an update posted tomorrow. Until then…
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 